1855 United States Tycoon

The New Year in 1897 has just passed, but the shopping spree has not ended. The shops on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan are full of bustling crowds. People are frantically buying all kinds of goods, as if these things are all free. Every department store is crowded with people. The bosses of the department store are so happy that they can't keep their mouths together all day, and the employees are almost tired and get down.

The past few months have been golden days for many people, and money has come very easily. It's like raining gold coins from the sky.

Since the second half of last year, the stock market has been prosperous. The soaring of the Dow Jones Index that has just appeared clearly shows the prosperity of the stock market. In just a few months, the price of many stocks has risen several times. Some Industries, such as railways and shipping, have an average price-to-earning ratio of more than 70. This also means that if these industries are profitable now, people who buy his stock will have to wait 70 years before they can make a profit. Equal to cost. Under normal circumstances, a stock's price-to-earnings ratio should be in the range of 14-20, more than 28 means a bubble.

Generally speaking, if a certain stock has a higher price-to-earnings ratio, there are often several possibilities:

The first situation is that the market predicts that its future profits will grow rapidly. For example, if an enterprise suddenly succeeds in developing a commercially available fusion reactor, even if it has invested too much in scientific research this year, it has caused very little profit and a high price-earnings ratio. However, considering the epoch-making significance of this technology and With huge profit prospects, this stock will already be sought after by the market.

The second situation is that the company has always been profitable, but some special expenses occurred in the previous year, which reduced its profitability. However, from the perspective of future prospects, the profit prospects of this company are still optimistic, so such a price-earnings ratio can also be very reasonable.

The third situation is the industry bubble, the stock is sought after. To put it more clearly, it's Bosha.Today, the profitability of these industries is not in a state of continuous growth. Although the so-called "good news" one after another, these news are just news. This is like if China has discovered a large nickel mine at a depth of 40,000 meters underground. Is it good news for the steel industry? Maybe it is, but there is no use in the foreseeable short-term. Because the depth is too large, the technical difficulty of mining and the economic cost are too high, so there is basically no mining meaning.

And the profit prospects of these industries? At least for now, there is no big prospect of making so much money at all. Because the demand for railways and shipping in the market has not been ascending significantly. Therefore, this kind of price boom is completely a bubble, and it is a fool.

It’s just that many people didn’t have enough time or knowledge to join the stock market, so various trust companies developed rapidly in the past few months. Trust investment companies enjoyed many businesses that banks could not operate at that time. , The government's supervision is very loose, and all this has led to the excessive absorption of social funds by trust and investment companies and investment in high-risk industries and stock markets. Although the operators of these companies know that most of the stock market today is in bubbles, but under today’s conditions, if any trust investment company does not invest most of its funds in the stock market, then This means that their rate of return will be much lower than that of other companies in the same industry, which means that his clients will not hesitate to abandon them and switch to other trust investment companies that are willing to invest in the stock market.

"Joshua Uncle, you see, the United States stock market has been quite abnormal during this period of time. The stock market has seriously deviated from its value, and our bank is still open to provide loans to trust companies. . Is this too dangerous?” asked Joshua Rothschild’s nephew, Alberto, holding a report.

"Oh, it's just another round of harvesting." Joshua replied with a smile.

"Alberto, look, what are Morgan's Bank and McDonald's Bank doing? And who caused so many so-called good news hype? Who controls the public opinion in this country? And, in the trend early At the stage, which institutions gave good information?"

"You mean, they made all this? What is their purpose?" Alberto asked.

Joshua smiled and said: "My boy, you should know that even when the foam is the most, there is beer under the foam, but when the price is high, some fools will treat all the foam as beer. When the market collapses, they will treat beer completely as foam. So, if you pay attention, you can buy real beer at the price of buying foam after the market collapses. This is also an old trick, there is a What don’t understand. Since they have prepared such a banquet, how can we be worthy of them if we don’t have two bites in the past? Of course, we must also be cautious. Their targets are likely to include us. You know, because of the United States local bank It’s difficult for us to enter the banking circle of the United States. Over the years, we have invested a lot of power in trust and investment companies, and have mastered a lot of trust and investment companies. In their view, it’s just They have always wanted to destroy all these trust and investment companies. Nowadays, the stock market bubble is soaring, and it is impossible for those trust companies not to invest in it. Once invested, Morgan and McDonald, who control the bank, only Instead of issuing loans, they began to take back loans quickly. The entire stock market would soon collapse, and these trust companies would have only one way to go bankrupt."

Alberto thought for a while and asked: "Uncle, isn't this a good opportunity? Our family has been unable to return to North America on a large scale. Now if they take back their loans, we will intervene and transfer some important trust companies. Protected, and even took the opportunity to annex other companies, so that we can re-establish our foundation in United States. Uncle, do you think this idea is feasible?"

Joshua thought for a while and replied, "Alberto, you can think of this, which is very good. But you have to know that there is a very large amount of money involved. This kind of thing is not something I can decide. . This must be decided by the whole family. And what kind of decision the family will make, this is not for me to be sure. However, I can be sure that if you want the family to support your ideas, you must take this Concretize the idea, form a comprehensive and specific quantitative analysis, and a practical implementation plan. This is a big job, and there is not much time left for you. Can you complete such a report in a short time ?"

After hearing this, Alberto was a little excited, but he still tried to calm himself down, and then asked: "Joshua Uncle, won't you help me with this matter?"

"Ah, boy, I still have my business, so you have to take the lead in this matter. How about it. Can I see this report in a week?"

Alberto thought for a while and replied: "Joshua Uncle, this is a bit difficult, but if you give me some investigative authority and allow me to choose a few helpers, I will definitely be able to complete this plan in a week. "

"I can agree to this." Joshua said, "as soon as possible to determine the personnel you need, and then I can deploy their work."

"Thank you, Joshua Uncle. I'm going to prepare now." Alberto couldn't help being a little excited, he was finally able to take charge of important things.

"Okay. Go down." Joshua said.

Seeing how excited his nephew was when he left, Joshua smiled and shook his head. He knew that the task he gave Alberto was purely an exercise. The possibility of the family approving such a proposal is very, very small, because now in South Africa, it is a tense moment of war. Controlling South Africa’s gold is too important for the family’s business. Therefore, the main attention and strength of the family must be put there. It is difficult to invest such a large amount of power in North America at this time. In fact, perhaps it is because of seeing through this point that MacDonald and Morgan will play such a trick at this time. Therefore, the most realistic approach now is to quietly withdraw own funds before Scrooge McDonald and JP Morgan start to withdraw funds from the market.

Joshua thought this way, and suddenly heard a soft knock on the door.

"Who, what's the matter?" Joshua asked.

"Mr. Rothschild, today's newspaper is here." A person outside the door replied.

"Okay, you can send it in." Joshua heard that it was his servant John.

The door was gently pushed open, John walked in, put several newspapers neatly on Joshua’s desk, and then respectfully said to Joshua: "Mr. Rothschild, today All the newspapers are here."

"Okay, you can go ahead." Joshua waved his hand gently, and John retreated silently and closed the door.

Joshua opened the drawer, took out his glasses and put them on the bridge of his nose-he was not young anymore, and his eyes were still a bit old. Then he picked up a newspaper on the top.

It was a "Wall Street Journal", which is the most authoritative newspaper in United States in terms of financial professionalism. John is very careful in doing things, so he always puts this newspaper on top.

Joshua picked up the newspaper and saw an article on its front page: "The Shortcomings and Needs of Our Banking System."

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