1855 United States Tycoon

"So, have you determined that there will be a very large-scale war in Europe?" Morgan asked.

"This?" Little Morgan hesitated.

"How big is the war in Europe so that the McDonald family will become very profitable? You should have calculated this question?" Morgan asked again.

"This..." Little Morgan hesitated, but still replied: "According to our calculations, if the scale of the war is too small, I am afraid it is not worth it for MacDonald to do it. This war is at least larger than the Franco-Prussian War. Two to three times the size, and it must last long enough, at least two or three years before MacDonald’s actions are at a loss. Such a large-scale war..."

Morgan understands that it is really difficult to make this judgment. On the one hand, there is no real evidence about whether MacDonald’s actions were for the war, or just speculation. On the other hand, if this speculation is to be feasible, the scale of the war required is also It's too big. If the war is really fought like this, it will be detrimental to any country participating in the war. Obviously, such a large-scale war will inevitably greatly weaken the power of the participating countries, and even greatly affect the capitalists in those countries. Because their factories will lack workers, and to maintain such a war, they have to open their markets to foreign countries and import large amounts of industrial products from foreign countries. This will make the domestic market completely open to foreign countries. Even if you make a little money by hoarding in the war, but the production capacity is destroyed, the market is occupied, and a large amount of hard currency flows abroad, such losses are hard to make up for. Therefore, under normal consideration, it should not reach that intensity at all, and both sides of the battle will seek compromise.

Before the outbreak of the First World War, each powerful country had an illusion. They arrogantly felt that the intensity of the war between the major powers could be controlled, because in the previous history, the previous wars of the industrial powers were quite similar. Properly. It's just that they didn't think about how long it has been since the emergence of general warfare and monopoly capital that the big powers have not had a big fight. Since there is a total war, countries that do not use such methods will be quickly defeated. After such methods are used, the war will become endless, and no one can easily stop. However, such a dark foresight is not acceptable to anyone.

Therefore, both Jr. Morgan and Morgan have difficulty making final judgments.

"If you can be sure that MacDonald is indeed the intention, what are you going to do?" Morgan asked again.

"Dad, if we can really be sure that they have such intentions, then we have two choices." Little Morgan replied, "One is to continue to follow the McDonald's consortium and take a ride to make a fortune; the other This is the force introduced to Europe."

"Bringing in the power of Europe?" Old Morgan asked.

"Yes, Dad, although we have a lot of growth, the gap between us and the McDonald Consortium is still widening. Especially after they have become more proficient in financial methods." Xiao Morgan said, "We and McDonald’s power are out of balance. Dad, I know you are very wary of those guys whose surname is Rothschild, but what is the difference between the current Macdonald Consortium and Rothschild? If that happens in Europe, Rothschild will suffer a huge loss. They will definitely be eager to escape from Europe at that time. We provide them with a little opportunity, and then with their power, and MacDonald competes to get more profits..."

"You are not afraid to put a big bad wolf in this small room? And it is a big bad wolf whose way of making money highly overlaps with us? At that time, their competition with us might be more intense, right?" Morgan Asked.

"This is indeed a problem. But their roots are always in Europe." Little Morgan said, "And after all, this is our home court. If the operation is good, we might..."

"Maybe there is a better chance of swallowing Rothschild?" Morgan paused. "If you really want to do that, people will immediately hug Scrooge's thigh. The Rothschild guys are not that easy to calculate. However, it is a good idea to introduce European economic power. After all, Europe is not the only Rothschild. After the war began, well, you just said that MacDonald reduced their power in Europe, right. Then. Using our more channels in Europe than MacDonald, we can bring other small European capitals to the United States, and then control them to increase our strength. Don’t touch Rothschild at will, don’t give them a chance . For us, they are too close to our business scope, but more dangerous than McDonald..."

...

The New York Stock Exchange, this day's trading is going on very normally. Countless staff wearing vests of various colors ran around in the trading mall, busy. The trader Jack just finished a deal. He picked up the tea cup in his hand, took a sip of coffee, stretched out, moved his body, and started preparing for the next deal.

Nowadays, it is less than an hour before the market is closed at noon. Generally speaking, the number of transactions at this time will increase. Whether it is short or long, I hope to dominate the situation at this time, so as to form a transaction in the afternoon. Psychological influence. However, it is clear that the strength of the shorts still cannot beat the longs, so at this time, the total stock price still pulls out a slightly inclined upward curve.

Only five minutes before the end of the morning transaction, the phone on Jack's desk suddenly rang. Jack quickly grabbed the microphone:

"Hello."

As he spoke, he tilted his head to clamp the receiver, and at the same time quickly took out the pen and opened the notebook.

"Okay, I understand." Jack said as he got busy. In just twenty seconds, Jack will build the Caterina ship for five dollars and three cents per share. Thousands of shares were thrown out. Just throwing away this pen, his phone rang again, and at this time, he noticed that the phones of other traders were also starting to ring frantically...

In just five minutes, the Dow Jones Index fell off a deep cliff. The number that had risen slowly in the morning fell completely in just five minutes. If it is not the time for trading, I am afraid that the selling will become more intense. But fortunately, there is this timeout at noon, so everyone has a buffer time, so you can think about it calmly, so as not to be too panic.

"What happened, do you know?" Although Jack was the first trader to complete the throw, he was not clear about why the boss made the decision to sell immediately. Because before that, the boss had been watching more. So when he was eating, he asked other people while he was eating.

"Not sure," replied a trader who was also eating, "maybe something has happened again, and there is some new news."

In fact, what happened is simple, that is, Fitch International has just released a new economic situation report. In this report, after analyzing a large amount of data, Fitch International warned that the stock market has overheated and is in danger of a complete collapse.

Obviously, this Fitch report gave those short-term players full blows on the one hand, and on the other hand, it also made those who are ready to continue to go long, so that they will have the performance in the last five minutes of the morning.

However, the prosperity for a long time has made the market confident enough. So after the opening in the afternoon, although the downward momentum continued for a while, the shorts were quickly blocked, and then the stock price began to slowly recover. Lost ground, until the end of the afternoon trading, although the Dow Jones index still fell, but the decline was not too great.

After a long period of bull market, the market will always accumulate very high confidence, making the market very resistant to some bad news. Of course, this very resistant can also be understood as very slow. This situation is actually quite beneficial for big capital, because it makes it easier for them to find the so-called "receiver." Sometimes, big capital is relying on the cover of such confidence to successfully complete the profit-making flight operation.

By the next day, the market was not affected too much by the Fitch report, and it started to rise again. Although there were several shock adjustments during the period, by the time the market closed, it completely regained the ground lost yesterday. On the third day, the stock market continued to fluctuate, but overall it still rose slightly.

Some other media have also thrown out their analysis. They all believe that although the stock market does tend to be overvalued, the overall economic situation has not changed fundamentally, so the stock market is not too dangerous. .

Although the professionalism of these media and their previous achievements in predicting the economy are far less than Fitch, their authority is far from an order of magnitude, and it is even comparable to Fitch. A joke, but at this time, these media statements seem to be more effective than Fitch's report. Because in many cases, people will always believe what they are more willing to believe.

Therefore, every time when the stock price drops, there will be some people, especially those who entered the market late and missed the previous rise. The big capital, who is preparing to realize these profits and even become a bargaining chip for shorting the stock market in the future, has acted as a successor. They thought they had succeeded in bargaining, but in fact, they were just copying to the advance camp of Mount Everest. And where is the real bottom? Who knows? Maybe in the Netherlands, maybe in the Dead Sea, maybe in the Mariana Trench.

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