1928: The rise of giant merchants

"The one about the decline of the U.S. stock market?" Ye Luo looked curiously at the foreigner whose eyes were filled with admiration for him. "I heard that the academic community is not very optimistic about that paper."

"Indeed, many scholars even asked that no economic newspapers be allowed to publish that paper, and they cut off the end of your article predicting the rise of the U.S. stock market and publicized it." The foreigner nodded and said, "For the sake of profit, they are not willing to betray Academic.”

"Excuse me, who are you?" Ye Luo put the dizzy Kong Lingjun on his lap and asked with a smile, "I remember that Global Economic News is quite famous in the United States."

"Please allow me to introduce myself. My dear John Francis Fitzgerald, Jr., currently serves as the deputy director of the Global Economic News headquarters in China. He graduated from Harvard University's Department of Economics and Management, and can be considered your senior. "The foreigner stretched out his hand and said with a smile.

John Francis Fitzgerald, Jr.?

This name sounds so familiar.

Ye Luo nodded and shook hands, but his mind was constantly searching for relevant memories.

Foreign names are long, smelly, and hard to remember.

His name was John Francis Fitzgerald, Jr., indicating that his father's name was John Francis Fitzgerald and that he was the eldest son in the family.

A family that can name its father like this must be deeply rooted in the United States, but Global Economic News is not a large enterprise. At best, it is similar to Tan Si's Pier Gang, but it is relatively well-known in economic academia.

"I seem to have heard of you, Mr. Fitzgerald." Ye Luo asked tentatively.

He smiled: "Ye, just call me Francis. I think you have heard of my father, Big John. He was the Minister of Enterprise and Innovation of the Republic and now runs our family's Fitzgerald Ladd Corporation and serves as mayor of Boston.”

As soon as he said this, Ye Luo remembered it!

The Fitzgerald Group is not well-known. It is one of the many invisible chaebol groups in the United States. Big John, who is currently the mayor of Boston, can only be regarded as a small mountain in the American military and political circles, and has not yet reached the true core of power.

But the greatest thing about the Fitzgerald family is their investment in people!

Standing in front of Ye Luo, Little John also had an eldest sister, Rose Fitzgerald, the eldest daughter of the Fitzgerald family. At this time, she had named her husband Rose Fitzgerald. Kennedy.

On October 7, 1914, Rose held her wedding to Joseph Patrick Kennedy Sr. The two have been married for more than 14 years and have two sons and two daughters. The second son is named John Fitzgerald. Kennedy was twelve years old this year. Thirty-one years later, in 1960, he was elected as the thirty-fifth president of the United States.

This relationship seems very complicated, but it can actually be attributed to the frightening Kennedy family in later generations.

The little John in front of me is Kennedy's uncle!

Ye Luo raised his eyebrows. It was indeed a ferry arranged by the Nationalist Government. In order to ensure the safety of his trip, all the idle passengers on the boat were well-connected.

"I see, it's a pleasure to meet you. I went to Boston many times when I was studying at Harvard. No wonder your name is so familiar." Ye Luo smiled and nodded.

"Ye, do you really think the U.S. stock market will start to fall in the second half of the year?" Little John couldn't help but ask.

Ye Luo nodded and briefly repeated the contents of his paper.

He was reasoning backwards from the results, so he could easily find clues from some details.

In fact, the economic crisis that swept the world in 1929 was exactly the same as Japan's bubble economy in the 1980s and 1990s. Too much hot money poured into a frenetic market, making countless people feel that money was very profitable, and they continued to invest funds in it. .

Market changes often have a fatal lag for retail investors. By the time you notice something is wrong, you have already lost most of the money you invested.

And if you really squeeze into a seemingly overheated market, you may not be able to make money.

Just like the more deceptive real estate scams of later generations.

Take China’s real estate in the 21st century as an example.

In the initial stage of rising housing prices, ordinary people are not aware of this. By the time they find out, housing prices have risen to a point where they can barely afford it.

For example, in the 2000s, housing prices in Shanghai were extremely high, and it was very difficult for ordinary people living there to buy a new house.

The housing prices in urban areas are out of reach for most people. The housing prices in the suburbs make it difficult for a dual-income family or a working family with a certain income to spend all their money on a new one. For families further down, they feel that they have to grit their teeth. , borrowing money from everywhere to afford it.

At that time, it was not easy to get a mortgage, and it was even more difficult to get a bank loan. If you wanted to buy a house, you had to borrow money from relatives and friends unless you had a certain amount of savings.

In the 2000s, many of the lower-priced houses in Shanghai did not allow mortgages. You had to buy them in full at one price. At that time, the salary was only more than 1,000 yuan, but the house price was 170,000 to 80,000 yuan, which was also very difficult.

And if you are in a non-first-tier city, although housing prices are low, your income is also low. In fact, it is the same.

In fact, in the 2000s, housing prices had already risen to a certain level, and it was no longer a period when it was easy to buy. If you go back further, you will find that the era when gold was everywhere and it was easy to make money and wealth was after 1978, especially The 80s and early 90s!

But at that time, it was the moment when most people did not realize the opportunity.

Who are the people who can realize these opportunities and reap the greatest benefits?

Obviously the ones who make the rules and are involved in making them.

John Jr.'s family, and the Kennedy family into which his sister married, were clearly this type of people.

His sister's husband, Joseph Sr., the father of Kennedy, was one of the small group of people who withdrew from the U.S. stock market early during the 1929 economic crisis, not only preserving capital but also making huge profits!

Does he also have the ability to predict the future like Ye Luo?

No, he just participated in making the rules.

The real estate scams of later generations were even more terrifying.

Use a commodity that does not have such a high value to tie up your future and all your funds, and because the battle lines are extremely long, it has been more than 20 years since the 2000s when the real estate bubble really began to burst.

During this period, people who successfully get on the bus have many ways to escape unscathed. The earlier they get on the bus, the easier it is to become a winner.

But why are most people still complaining in the end?

Quite simply, because of greed.

The earlier you make money, the easier it will be to make money and the more capable you will be.

In fact, what you think is your own ability is just an illusion created by the rule makers.

Such an illusion will put you in a desperate situation in the end.

You trust your own judgment, so you are unwilling to evacuate early. If you do so early and find that house prices are still rising in the past three or four years, you will be extremely regretful. Instead of thinking about how much money you have made, you will always think about how much less you have made. , so you will enter again.

In the end, you will die in the fate of not getting out of the market in advance and being harvested by a wave.

What is even worse is the younger generation who have urgent needs for houses in the next ten years but are unable to do anything about it.

The wealth that should belong to them has been intercepted by the previous generation, and the generations before them, but the responsibilities and liabilities that should not belong to them will be shouldered by them.

Society as a whole seems to have forgotten the pain of this generation of young people.

It seems so natural.

But why should I be overpaid for everything I did?

Looking back on the past, Ye Luo sighed, so he became even more cautious about this trip to the United States.

This time, he is not only fighting for the established goal, but also fighting for his former self.