1991 Starting from the core

The birth of Zhongxin originated from the fact that Su Yuanshan went to Wuxi to find Huajing for tape-out in person, and happened to help solve Zhang Jianjun's problem. At the dinner that night, his description of the future market directly conquered Chaoxin.

So Chaoxin made a decisive decision and chose to fully embrace Yuanxin.

At the time, many people thought Wang Chaoxin was crazy—how could something as invisible and intangible as technology be worth millions?

You know, that was 1991.

But Wang Chaoxin, a textile worker, really believed in Su Yuanshan's evil deeds. Not only did it resolutely complete the restructuring of the Jiangyin factory, it also stepped up the production of pagers at all costs.

Needless to say what happened next - as the country opened up private capital to enter the paging station, the pager market exploded instantly.

Zhongxin, which has the technical support of Yuanxin, has surpassed the giants like MOTO in the field of pagers. However, due to various parts and materials, Zhongxin paging is indeed not as good as Motorola in terms of service life. Wait for the big guys, the latter has a theoretical life span of more than ten years in tests, while Zhongxin's only has about six years.

But so what? This is the sixth year - who still has a six-year-old pager hanging on their waist?

While Zhongxin has made a lot of money in the pager market, it has not forgotten to expand into new areas.

At the same time, Yuanxin has always been very supportive of Zhongxin. As long as it is a new technology, it will be passed over directly - let alone other things, it is cordless phones. Yuanxin has not even produced them, so it is directly handed over to Zhongxin.

And Chaoxin has lived up to Su Yuanshan's new appointment. Not only does the cordless phone directly occupy more than half of the domestic market share, the brand is exported to the entire Southeast Asia region, and its marketing has exceeded 500 million.

Not to mention the mobile phone business.

Today, Zhongxin has formed an emerging semiconductor company that takes mid-to-low-end mobile phones, cordless phones, pagers and other communication equipment as profit growth points, and semiconductor back-end processes and chip design as the direction of technology accumulation.

In terms of size, apart from Yuanxin, it is the largest among domestic private technology companies. It has even been repeatedly cited as a model by Wuxi, the “core city”, along with Yuanxin, euphemistically called “double core”.

This time when the new dynasty came, in addition to discussing the development direction of communication equipment after the establishment of the Ministry of Information Industry, they also had to discuss how to deal with the pager business.

——If we look at the growth rate of pager sales and users, the paging market is still a booming industry. Because its cost and technology determine it, it can have low enough cost sinking space.

Put it this way, the most expensive pager now costs four to five hundred yuan, which is equivalent to about 1/10 of a mobile phone of the same grade. Moreover, with the spread of public telephone facilities in the country, mobile phones are not strictly needed - a pager can basically meet the needs of daily life.

As long as it is willing to lower its price, Chaoxin can now produce a Chinese pager that costs no more than 100 yuan.

In the long run, pagers will definitely be eliminated by mobile phones. But, how long will this elimination take, and will the elimination be gradual? Or collapse?

No one knows.

——Well, maybe only Shan Zong can see some clues.

…

After Qin Weimin introduced the YX architecture's plan for the next year, Wang Chaoxin saw that no one around him had the intention to speak, so he opened his notebook first and looked at Su Yuanshan.

"Mr. Shan, Mr. Chen. Our business naturally follows the layout of Yuanxin, so I won't repeat the explanation. As a mid-to-low-end shipper, compared to Yuanxin's focus on high-end, we are more flexible in responding to the market. And with the advantage of adaptability, we can just keep shipping when the time comes.”

Chaoxin skipped the mobile phone business in a few words, which made everyone laugh.

Duan Yongping, in particular, laughed and shook his head: "Old Wang, take it easy. If the Ministry of Information Industry does this this year, there will definitely be many small companies involved in it and grab the low-end market."

"That's right, Brother Wang, you really need to take your time. Giant's Shi Dazhu is releasing new products in Las Vegas." Su Yuanshan also reminded with a smile: "It is said that the North American price is US$299."

"...So cheap?" Wang Chaoxin was startled.

"Well, this guy... is really a catfish." Su Yuanshan thought of Shi Dazhu's strategy and couldn't help but admire this guy - he entered the North American market purely to disrupt the situation. With a $299 mobile phone, he almost kept the cost down. Then just make a tax refund.

"So we can't take it lightly."

"Yeah, I understand." Wang Chaoxin nodded and quickly made a note in his notebook.

"Everyone, I am actually more worried about our paging business than mobile phones - last year, our pager sales exceeded 3 million units, and according to statistics, the growth rate of pager users has also maintained a healthy growth. Last month, the number of domestic paging users reached 25 million."

"And now, it is reported that the newly established China Unicom will take over the paging station... This is undoubtedly a great piece of good news."

As he spoke, Wang Chaoxin looked at Su Yuanshan, hoping that the other party could say a few words.

Su Yuanshan felt Wang Chaoxin's gaze and knew what this man was thinking - he had said several years ago that pagers must be eliminated. It seemed that this thorn had been stuck in Chaoxin's heart for a long time.

After thinking about it, Su Yuanshan nodded slightly: "Yes, it is indeed good news. It is foreseeable that the pager market is not yet saturated."

"When will it be saturated...when will it be eliminated?" Wang Chaoxin asked immediately.

Su Yuanshan did not answer immediately, but picked up the teacup and took a sip. Then he looked at Wang Chaoxin and then looked around at the people around him.

He saw that He Weidu had already stretched the tip of his pen towards the notebook.

"Before I answer, let me tell you a story from the history of science."

"At the beginning, when quantum mechanics was first born, Professor Einstein always opposed it. He admitted that quantum mechanics looked very beautiful, but it was obvious that quantum mechanics did not push humans one step closer to understanding God - God here, I tend to think it refers to the ultimate mystery of the world."

"So Einstein famously said - I believe God does not play dice."

"In other words, Einstein believed that nature is essentially deterministic rather than probabilistic. In other words, everything that happens can be traced."

"But how to find the traces is the most difficult. For example, we all know that pagers will be eliminated, and they will be eliminated by mobile phones. But how to find the traces?"

Chen Jing raised her chin at him: "Yes, where are the traces?"

"The traces are the development trend of the economy, the purchasing power and desire of consumers, the cost and price decline of mobile phones, the trend of consumers chasing new products, and even trends..."

As Su Yuanshan spoke, he dipped his hand in water and kept drawing straight lines on the table. Eventually, these lines converged to one point like light passing through a convex lens.

"When many factors converge, people will suddenly realize: Who still buys paging these days?"

“When someone starts saying that, that’s when paging is completely eliminated.”

"If you had to ask me to give a time, I would say, two years."

"In the past two years, the pager market will fully sink into small and medium-sized cities and rural areas. Of course, there will also be places like schools where the purchasing power is insufficient but there are communication needs."

"And in two years, it will be completely eliminated, and it will become a thing that people say, 'Who still buys that thing?'"

Wang Chaoxin pursed his lips vigorously and frowned.

Having been in contact with Su Yuanshan for a long time, Wang Chaoxin certainly knew that Su Yuanshan rarely made conclusions. But once you make up your mind, you'd better believe it—and that's exactly what he's been doing for years.

When he couldn't make a decision, he would ask Su Yuanshan for advice, and then choose to believe Su Yuanshan unconditionally.

Only this time... Su Yuanshan seemed to firmly believe that the pager would reach a peak and then disappear...

This is so counter-intuitive.

After all, paging is not the original Big Brother—the mobile phone was born to replace Big Brother.

After thinking silently for a long time, Wang Chaoxin finally couldn't hold it back: "Mr. Shan, can I ask why it is two years?"

Su Yuanshan smiled slightly, and when he was about to answer, he suddenly saw He Wei, who was diagonally opposite, raising her hand.

There was joy in his eyes and he immediately said: "He Wei, tell me."

"Okay. Mr. Wang..." He Wei leaned forward slightly so that Wang Chaoxin could see her.

"Because, two years is exactly the time we expected for mobile phone replacement. At the same time, two years later, the Internet access fee will probably be greatly reduced or even banned."

"Now, the number of mobile phones being sold and circulated on the market in our country actually greatly exceeds the number of online users - the mobile phones here also include old mobile phones flowing into the second-hand market. According to our statistics, the current backlog of second-hand mobile phones in circulation on the market is about Around a million units."

He Wei folded her hands and reported the current mobile phone market data almost without thinking: "And in two years, these old mobile phones... unless they are completely broken, they will definitely flow into the market again. At that time, are you willing? Should you spend 200 to 300 yuan to buy a second-hand mobile phone, or would you rather spend 100 to 200 yuan to buy a pager? Don’t forget, one of the major functions of a mobile phone is that it can be used as a pager.”

Su Yuanshan nodded with a smile.

In later generations, because of the omnipotent reason that mobile phone prices dropped and advanced technology eliminated backward technology, few people really explored the direct reason why the pager market suddenly disappeared.

The price reduction of new mobile phones will definitely lead to the backlog and price reduction in the second-hand market. When the inventory critical line reaches, second-hand mobile phones will directly destroy the paging market.

——In fact, you can see the clues now. Any small communication shop that sells paging also has a sign that sells second-hand mobile phones.

After listening to He Wei's words, Wang Chaoxin finally let out a long sigh.

“What a shame for a good market.”

Last year, he sold hundreds of millions of paging pages alone, but to think that they would be gone in two years would be a lie if he said he didn't feel sorry for them.

He Wei smiled sweetly: "Mr. Wang, the historical mission of paging has been completed. It's a pity that mobile phones are the way to go in the future."

"Well, yes!" Wang Chaoxin quickly regained his composure and asked with a smile: "Mr. Xiao He, what about cordless phones? Don't tell me that Zhongxin's three major communication equipments are both sunset industries. Already..."

"Cordless phone... you have to ask Mr. Shan about this." He Wei rolled her eyes and gave Su Yuanshan a cue.

"Ahem... don't worry, cordless phones are local types and have a long lifespan."

Su Yuanshan coughed, looked at Chen Jing again, and then looked at Zhang Rujin with a smile.

Chen Jing understood, asked Wang Chaoxin with her eyes, and then looked at Zhang Rujin, who had always looked serious.

"Dr. Zhang."

"Well, Mr. Chen." Zhang Rujin had been listening to everyone's discussion. When Chen Jing called him, he naturally knew that it was his turn.

If the YX architecture is the foundation of Farcore's mobile phone business, then the Deyuan wafer fab is the engine of all Farcore's chip businesses.

Without Deyuan, everything is just talk.

"First of all, let me tell you some good news."

As soon as he said this, everyone looked at him - good news from the fab? What good news would that be?

"Two days ago, our process team has successfully completed a breakthrough in the 0.35 micron process technology - we are the fourth wafer fab to break through the 0.35 micron process technology after Intel, IBM, and NEC."

As soon as Zhang Rujin finished speaking, Su Yuanshan and Chen Jing took the lead in applauding.

*

*

Although based on time, Deyuan's process progress is still about a year behind, but at least it is tied in terms of process nodes.

As we all know, whether it is the capacity of flash memory or memory particles or the performance of the CPU, the biggest impact is the number of transistors.

The higher the process technology, the denser the number of transistors can be - this is the core of Moore's Law.

Yuanxin's life in the second half of 1996 was actually not as good as imagined.

The fundamental reason is that Intel completed the 0.35 micron node ahead of schedule, so that they relied on advanced manufacturing processes to easily return to and occupy the CPU performance throne.

In addition, the alliance between SanDisk and Intel is also constantly launching high-capacity flash memory particles. As of last month, they have launched MLC flash memory with a single capacity of 64MB.

As for Yuanxin, although Li Mingliu's team has perfectly demonstrated the feasibility of the 3D structure from the design point of view. However, due to the constraints of the process - to be precise, the constraints of the etching technology, he has been unable to realize the structure of his high-rise building.

Now that Deyuan has also broken through the 0.35 micron node, it means that Deyuan has the capital to continue competing with the IS (Intel, Sandisk) alliance in terms of single flash memory capacity.

"In addition to breakthroughs in process nodes, our wafer fab in the special zone will also speed up and strive to complete production in the second half of this year." Zhang Rujin knew that the chip and mobile phone people in front of him were looking at him eagerly, so he simply Don't be pretentious, just give reassurance directly.

"But...if a financial crisis does break out...I'm afraid it will trigger an overall winter in the semiconductor industry."

Zhang Rujin looked at Su Yuanshan as he spoke, with a serious look on his face: "Mr. Xiaoshan, no fab can survive alone in the cold winter."

Su Yuanshan pursed his lips and nodded slightly.

Then he smiled.

"Winter is waiting for you!"