A big country of aerospace with black technology

"The most important thing now is to make a set of efficient simulation models."

After Zhao Bingzhi said that the effect of the existing model was not ideal, he said with a hint of helplessness.

The data basis of the existing ballistic missile flight trajectory prediction model mainly comes from Dongfeng-5.

Because this ballistic missile has been in service in China for a long time, all aspects of the data have been explored very clearly.

Therefore, when building the model, we mainly refer to the trajectory parameters of this missile.

Because the first batch of missiles that the domestic missile defense system will face will be intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of more than 10,000 kilometers.

This is also an important reason why the parameters of the Dongfeng-5 intercontinental ballistic missile are selected for simulation.

"What is the main problem?"

Zhang Xingyang doesn't quite understand, although this kind of intercontinental ballistic missile can reach a super high speed of about Mach 10 when it flies in the middle.

However, because these are all first-generation intercontinental ballistic missiles, they are still parabolic in terms of ballistics, and because the missile defense system is not considered.

Therefore, in terms of mobile defense, no special development has been carried out.

Their main function is to transport large-mass nuclear warheads to hostile cities.

And these are second-generation nuclear warheads with a yield of more than one million tons.

"The main reason is that the accuracy of the initial trajectory data parameters is not high."

This question actually appeared a bit beyond all of their expectations.

For the team led by Zhao Bingzhi, they have never done this kind of work.

So when faced with this problem, I don't know how to deal with it.

And Zhang Xingyang didn't expect it, after all, the initial parameters in his mind are almost infallible.

But soon, Zhang Xingyang understood.

This problem, in detail, is actually his own problem.

Because the source of Zhao Bingzhi's initial trajectory data is actually a reconnaissance satellite.

But because there were no professional missile early warning satellites in China before.

Therefore, the source of data in this area has a degree of deviation beyond everyone's imagination.

At this time, the detection of intercontinental ballistic missiles almost always relies on high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance equipment, but the sensitivity and accuracy of infrared reconnaissance equipment on space satellites are not very high.

At this time, the navigation satellites can achieve an accuracy of ten meters, which is considered very advanced internationally.

At present, whether it is the domestic Beidou satellite or the GPS satellite with the widest coverage area, it can only achieve this level.

But for missile trajectory prediction, this accuracy is too low.

You must know that the diameter of intercontinental ballistic missiles is much larger than those of ballistic missiles with a range of only a few thousand kilometers.

But it is only three or four meters in diameter.

If the anti-missile system is to hit the target accurately, this requires a minimum prediction accuracy of two meters.

Otherwise, it is difficult to directly destroy the warhead of the incoming missile on the opposite side.

This puts forward higher requirements on the data accuracy of the missile when it takes off.

It's like walking on flat ground, even if the initial angle is only one degree off, but when you go out for a kilometer, there is a huge deviation.

Therefore, for the missile prediction model, the deviation of the initial data is too large, and it is almost impossible to obtain an accurate trajectory.

But after thinking about this point, Zhang Xingyang was also very helpless:

"There is no way to solve the problem of data accuracy for you yet."

"It will take at least half a year for our high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance satellite to be developed."

"This is the situation where I put a lot of pressure on the Satellite Research Institute."

"Even if the satellite is successfully developed, it will take at least one or two months from launch to official use."

"So during this period of time, it is almost impossible for you to get higher-precision actual data."

Because the anti-missile prediction model must be based on a large amount of actual data.

Therefore, without sufficiently accurate actual launch data, it is difficult to establish a standard model.

This is like the development of nuclear weapons, although after entering the 21st century, all countries in the world have stopped nuclear tests.

But this is based on the fact that everyone has collected enough data through dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of atmospheric nuclear tests or underground nuclear tests in the past fifty years.

It has been able to establish an experimental model with sufficient accuracy, and use a supercomputer with hundreds of billions of calculations to develop a new type of nuclear warhead.

Those countries that want to develop nuclear warheads only through computer calculations without conducting nuclear experiments can only say that such a good thing only exists in dreams.

So even after the launch of the high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance satellite of the 101 Satellite Research Institute.

It is not that simple to get data directly.

Because in addition to satellites, it is necessary to launch several intercontinental ballistic missiles to collect data.

Is the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile so simple?

Not to mention the high cost of ICBMs themselves.

Just for the supporting various monitoring stations and ocean-going survey ships, the manpower and material resources involved are unimaginable for ordinary small countries.

"However, if the data accuracy is set in an ideal state, how about the trajectory prediction accuracy?"

Since real data is difficult, Zhang Xingyang can only hope for an ideal state.

In fact, the storage chip in Zhang Xingyang's mind contained a series of intercontinental ballistic missile data.

However, those missiles are basically fourth-generation ballistic missiles decades later.

The performance in all aspects is quite different from today's first-generation and second-generation ballistic missiles.

If these parameters are used as the basis of the model, then with the current supercomputing speed, he may not be able to calculate the missile trajectory in a month.

You know, the computing speed of computers is basically rising exponentially.

Twenty years later, the calculation speed of the supercomputing center is nearly 100 million times that of today!

Forty years later, in the computing center, although the speed of a single computing unit did not increase exaggeratedly by 100 million times, it was due to changes in the supercomputing architecture.

The overall improvement is still close to such a change.

Therefore, for the supercomputers of the same period as the fourth-generation ballistic missiles, it only takes a few seconds to calculate their trajectories.

But for today's calculation speed, there are only 100 billion times of supercomputing, and it may not be able to complete the calculation in a year.

"The trajectory accuracy of ten meters accuracy can reach 100 percent."

Zhao Bingzhi honestly stated the accuracy range of the current missile prediction model.

"The trajectory accuracy at the five-meter level can reach 85 percent."

"The three-meter-level trajectory accuracy can reach 78 percent."

"Track accuracy at the two-meter level is only fifty-seven percent."

"The accuracy of the trajectory at the one-meter level is even lower, only 30 percent."

The higher the precision, the lower the accuracy rate.

It is also in line with Zhang Xingyang's psychological expectations before coming.

After all, the calculation of the flight trajectory of a missile is actually a very complicated matter.

Even for a ballistic missile in the same state, the trajectory under different circumstances may differ by hundreds of meters.

The strike accuracy of Dongfeng-5 intercontinental ballistic missile is 500-2000 meters.

Not to mention that during the production process of intercontinental ballistic missiles, it is almost impossible to make them exactly the same.

Even a one-millimeter undulation on the shell can cause deviations of several meters during flight.

So being able to achieve a prediction accuracy of 30% at the one-meter level is already a very surprising data.

The national missile defense system, in terms of defense against ballistic missiles, was strongly recommended by Zhang Xingyang at the beginning.

Therefore, the defense method of kinetic energy destruction was directly adopted instead of explosive destruction that was likely to fail.

Therefore, the accuracy requirement is the most important thing for Zhang Xingyang.

After all, for kinetic energy destruction, even a slight deviation may cause the defense to fail.

"Is this the latest model?"

At this time, the two had arrived at the model building laboratory of the supercomputing center.

The missile prediction model is actually divided into several parts.

Because the missile will actually face different situations during the entire flight process.

Under different circumstances, the parameters of the model will change greatly.

Especially under the environment in the atmosphere, because the situation at each altitude of the atmosphere is different.

So the model at this stage is actually the most complex.

The predictive model will become simpler only after the missile flies outside the atmosphere and the trajectory of the missile stabilizes.

In fact, if there are several missile early warning satellites above the geostationary orbit, this problem will become simpler.

Because for today's intercontinental ballistic missiles, the distance and time of mid-course flight are very long.

The missile early warning satellite can have a long time to confirm the target, and transmit the mid-course flight data of the incoming intercontinental ballistic missile to the supercomputing center on the ground.

If the calculation is only for the middle flight, then the calculation accuracy of the supercomputing center will be greatly improved.

Even the most difficult one-meter-level accuracy can be increased to more than 80%.

But now they don't have such an infrared early warning satellite, they can only start counting from the launch of the missile.

This will greatly increase the difficulty for the missile prediction model.

"Yes, this part is mainly the trajectory prediction model in the atmosphere."

Zhao Bingzhi introduced Zhang Xingyang to the densely packed data on the computer screen that ordinary people would feel dizzy just by looking at it.

"This part is a model of a submarine-launched missile?"

Zhang Xingyang pointed to a large piece of code on the screen and asked.

"Yes, in this part we mainly refer to giant waves."

Zhao Bingzhi nodded and said.

The initial goal of the missile defense system is to defend against intercontinental ballistic missiles.

At present, there are mainly three launch methods for intercontinental ballistic missiles in the world.

Two of them are land-based, namely mobile missile vehicles and fixed missile silos.

And the last one is the death lurking under the waves, the submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile in the nuclear submarine.

As the last line of defense of the trinity nuclear strike of the great powers.

Land-based missile vehicles and missile silos are likely to be destroyed by other people's missiles in the first place.

However, nuclear submarines lurking hundreds of meters below the ocean can avoid the first wave of enemy attacks.

Then, without surfacing, launch a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile.

Therefore, the missile defense system also attaches great importance to the defense of submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

"Big Wave-2?"

Zhang Xingyang asked about the specific model again.

"Yes."

After getting a definite answer, Zhang Xingyang was still a little surprised.

After all, Julang-2 is actually the most advanced submarine-launched ballistic missile in China.

The JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile has been officially developed since 1990. Due to the lack of sufficient underwater experimental data and simulation experimental equipment, many problems have arisen.

As of 2000, no live ammunition has been officially launched.

Even the launch of the simulated warhead is expected to take two or three years

This is why Zhang Xingyang was so surprised.

Now the weapons have not been forged yet, and they have to forge shields based on the weapons.

"They are really impatient to give you this kind of immature data."

Although he was a little emotional, Zhang Xingyang knew that there was no other way.

Because there are only two types of submarine-launched ballistic missiles in China, Julang-1 and Julang-2.

But the range of Julang-1 is only more than 2,000 kilometers.

Although the country has the capability of a second nuclear strike, it is undeniable that Julang-1 has fallen behind by the 21st century.

Therefore, if you want to achieve the primary goal of the missile defense system, you can only use Julang-2, which has not yet completed the research and development work.

Compared with the 2,000 kilometers of the Julang-1, the range of the Julang-2 ballistic missile has increased several times, reaching more than 7,000 kilometers.

My family knows my own affairs. Zhang Xingyang's Rocket Research Institute has cooperated a lot with the Second Academy of Aerospace Science and Technology, which developed the Julang-2 missile, and I know their situation quite well.

Although we don't know the current specific progress of Julang-2, judging from the many situations declassified by later generations, their development process is not going smoothly.

The main reason is the lack of necessary simulation equipment for underwater launch, which makes it difficult to explore the situation of missiles.

Especially in the absence of simulation equipment, it is unrealistic to understand the complex underwater dynamics, even by relying on large-scale supercomputers.

We must know that the disturbance of the water flow is much stronger than the disturbance of the atmosphere.

Under the same launch conditions, it is much easier for land-launched missiles to maintain stable launch than for underwater-launched missiles.

"That's pretty much all the data they have now."

Zhao Bingzhi showed Zhang Xingyang the pitiful data in the computer and said.

"There are indeed very few underwater launches, but you don't have to think too much about this part."

Zhang Xingyang said after looking at the detailed data:

"The focus of your current work is still on the precision and accuracy of flying outside the atmosphere."

Ask for a monthly pass, ask for a monthly pass! ! !