Age of Dreams

() As soon as the whole six o'clock point of view came out, Xiao Qi laughed heartily.

Dad deserves to be Dad, he is indeed a very talented person. Although it is far from the summarization level of several economists of later generations that I have seen, it should be noted that what Dad said now is not a summary after the fact, but It is a notice issued in advance, and the meanings of the two are completely different.

Those who issue a report in advance are called financial experts, and those who make a statement after the fact are called aftermath. Of course, the attention they can attract is not comparable.

Moreover, Xiao Xu's language style is as sharp as always, especially when he vividly described the collapse of the bubble economy, it is obvious for everyone to compare the similarities and differences with the current China.

The next day, Xu ri published a second commentary article "Rising house prices and the survival dependence of small and medium-sized enterprises".

Due to the increasing dependence of local finance on land sales and the rapid rise in housing prices, the local finance will be kidnapped first, which will lead to local financial expenditures tilted towards real estate, and bank funds will also be tilted towards more profitable real estate, which will lead to the real continuation of banking Small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on credit for turnover are struggling, and even large-scale bankruptcy due to the interruption of the capital chain.

The rapid rise in housing prices will inevitably lead to a decline in people's living standards, because everyone will save money to buy a house, and the sharp drop in domestic demand will once again hit the viability of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Excessive rise in housing prices will cause people who invest in real estate to obtain very large profits, and even people who speculate in real estate will earn several times higher profits than the 10 to 15 percent profit of manufacturing, which will cause capital to move toward The flow of real estate that is easy to make money means that the bosses of the manufacturing industry will no longer manufacture goods, but will go directly to speculating, thus causing a large number of small and medium factories to close down.

The rapid rise in house prices, combined with the decrease in export profits caused by the appreciation of the RMB, has further exacerbated the exit of factory owners, and the number of small and medium factories closing down has increased again.

The funds of small and medium-sized enterprises leave the entity and invest in real estate, which will in turn cause the real estate price to skyrocket again, so that the property market bubble increases sharply, which in turn affects the real economy... This cycle has formed a vicious circle of the real economy, impacting the country's economic leaders. lifeline.

Ordinary people read these two comments as amusing articles, but when their gazes rose above the provincial level, many people began to reflect.

There are not many small and medium-sized factories in Shuchuan, and even fewer rely on exports to make a living, so the feeling is not that profound.

However, the leaders in eastern Guangdong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas were quite frightened when they saw the two articles.

Especially when looking at the actual situation in my own place, I even more agree that such comments and predictions are justified, at least to a certain extent, and the development of things seems to be following what Asahi said.

On the afternoon of Saturday, November 25th, Yu Chengsheng, Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee of Shuchuan Province, received a call from Mu Xuefei, a former classmate of the Zhongyang Party School who is currently Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee of East Guangdong Province.

In terms of official positions, both of them are provincial party secretaries, but because of the special nature of eastern Guangdong, their provincial party secretary rank in the party is far higher than that of Shuchuan's provincial party secretary. .

However, Mu Xuefei is very refined, has his own set of ideas in speaking and doing things, and is not arrogant and strong, so among the group of Zhong Yang Party School students, his popularity is very good.

After a while of chatting, Mu Xuefei suddenly asked, "Chengsheng, how about you lend me someone?"

Yu Chengsheng was stunned for a moment, but he said nothing on the surface, "Hehe, Lao Mu, are you kidding me? You have so many talents in eastern Guangdong, how could you come to our Shuchuan to borrow someone?"

"There are talents everywhere, but Yuedong doesn't have any talents." Mu Xuefei smiled heartily, "Don't worry, I will not borrow your confidant and love general, I will borrow a newspaper commentator, I want to ask him Understand several aspects of the problem.”

"Oh? Which commentator is actually able to alert Lao Mu to your master?" Yu Chengsheng was really surprised at this time.

"There is a commentator named Xu ri in your Shuchuan Daily News. Some of his opinions are very interesting. If possible, I would like to invite him to come to our east of Guangdong first." Mu Xuefei said calmly.

Yu Chengsheng rolled his eyes, "Okay, that's fine, I'll find him first, how about an answer to Lao Mu on Monday?"

"Okay, thank you."

Mu Xuefei smiled and hung up the phone.

Holding the mobile phone, Yu Chengsheng started to be stunned, and immediately made a call, "Xiao Li, you can find me the Shuchuan Daily News of the last month, as long as there are articles written by a commentator named Xuri, you will give it to me. I'll bring it... um, now, as soon as possible!"

Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee, Ji spoke, and the speed of action was naturally very fast. An hour later, just after dinner, two newspapers were placed in front of Yu Chengsheng.

"On the Impact of Exchange Rate Rising on Imports and Exports".

"Rising house prices and the survival dependence of small and medium-sized enterprises".

Looking at the two headlines, Yu Chengsheng understood why Mu Xuefei called to ask for someone, and he dared to call Yuedong by name.

Wearing glasses, he read slowly, Yu Chengsheng's relaxed face slowly became solemn.

After closing his eyes and thinking for a moment, he started reading again for the second time, this time more carefully than before, and his face became more and more solemn.

While nodding incessantly, Yu Chengsheng contacted the actual situation and was shocked to find that the development of the country seems to be heading in the direction that Xu ri said, and the consequences of this have probably already begun to appear.

Thinking of this, Yu Chengsheng didn't care that it was eight o'clock in the evening, grabbed his mobile phone and called Mu Xuefei, "Lao Mu, tell me honestly, recently, the small and medium factories in your area have really started to close down in large numbers?"

"There hasn't been a large number of closures yet, but there have been hundreds of closures one after another." Mu Xuefei said with a wry smile over the phone, "Although compared to the hundreds of thousands of factories in eastern Guangdong, these hundreds are nothing. But I also inquired about the credit of the major banks, and I found out that small and medium-sized enterprises have been unable to take out loans because of mortgage difficulties. Fifty percent of the total loan amount is given to large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, and the remaining 100 percent. Forty percent of it goes to real estate, and only the remaining 10 percent is not available to small and medium-sized enterprises!"

"That is to say, the survival situation of small and medium-sized enterprises is more serious than what is said in the internal reference?"

"Well, coupled with the rising exchange rate and the sharp drop in profits, they can't bear it anymore." Mu Xuefei nodded, "So I'm going to ask Xuri, how can I help them, and I hope he can have real resources. material!"

"Didn't he say a solution in the newspaper?"

"Hey, where did he tell the real specific measures? This is going to cause trouble!" Mu Xuefei smiled slightly, "I want to ask him face-to-face and ask him to formulate a set of overall feasible measures for me! Sheng, you have to help me!"

"Understood." Yu Chengsheng nodded solemnly, "East Guangdong is not only East Guangdong in the south, but also East Guangdong in the whole country! Of course I have to contribute to the overall situation!";