American Fortune Life

"...Boss, all the above shows that 2009 will be a year of turning point for the world economy. From the figure, we can see the surprisingly high consistency between the Dow Jones stock index and the consumption age curve of the population.

The reason is obvious. The stock market reflects the performance expectations of listed companies, and the company's performance depends on product sales. Sales naturally come from people's consumption. Consumption drives more than 70% of GDP in the United States.

Consumption needs consumers, and consumers in the prime of life are needed. . . "

Andy crossed his arms and leaned on the boss chair, listening with great interest to a young elite in the think tank opposite the computer monitor explaining his views on population and economy.

Judging from the basic trend of the current economy, the panic of the financial crisis seems to subside temporarily, and the light of hope for economic recovery seems to be in sight.

However, truly insightful people know that what they need to pay attention to is not what happened to the financial tsunami, but what will happen to the world after the financial tsunami.

As for the view put forward by members of the think tank that the world will enter a consumption ice age, Andy can use a new perspective to view the future world economy and formulate strategies.

"Boss, please see, from the graph we can see that the last inflection point of the peak period of the baby boomer generation was in 1962..."

The young think tank member stood in front of the projector, clicked a picture with a laser pointer, and continued calmly: "Considering that the United States is a huge immigrant country, this population curve has been adjusted by the immigrant population. .

Note that this figure was in 1962.

From 1946 to 1964, 77 million people were born in the United States during the 18 years, accounting for a quarter of the U.S. population, and this group of people is precisely the backbone of American society today.

With the growth of this batch of "baby boomers", the US economy has entered a period of dazzling prosperity. . .

Created the largest stock market gains in history, house price increases and demand for international airlines, personal computers, computer networks and sports and leisure tools.

According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Labor, the peak consumption of Americans is at the age of 47. At this time, life is in the prime of life, the prime of life, and the income reaches its peak.

And once over the age of 47, people start to think about retirement and retirement, their bodies are getting old and they have to prepare to see a doctor and take medicine. From then on, people's expectations of future income decline,

Consumption began to decline gradually, and life became more and more frugal.

With the increase of age, all kinds of Y also start to go downhill simultaneously.

Let's look back at the children who were born in 1962 at the inflection point of the "baby boom". . . "

As the laser pointer pointed at another chart, the expressions of everyone in the conference room and Andy who was far away in San Francisco became a little serious.

"After 47 years of living in luxury, this group reached their turning year, 2009.

The world suddenly turned dark, the economic prosperity suddenly disappeared, the financial tsunami hit the shore, and the unemployment frenzy swept across.

At this time, they suddenly found that nearly half of their retirement funds invested in the stock market had been lost, and their bank account deposits had always been "thin as a cicada's wing" due to years of extravagance. making them already heavily in debt.

Under such circumstances, they will decline sharply from the consumption curve of normal aging, and accelerate the speed and intensity of tightening their belts in order to cope with the cruel economic cold wave in the future.

In 2009, we were right on the edge of the cliff represented by the population consumption curve, and one step ahead was the inflection point of the "consumption waterfall".

When the last batch of "baby boomers" slipped past the peak consumption age of 47 in 2009, what followed was a sharply declining consumption cycle, which lasted until 2024.

This will be a 14-year consumption decline cycle. Under the condition of high debt, the US consumer market will fall into a long ice age comparable to that of the 1930s!

Please note that neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy will have a significant effect on an aging generation, and these policies cannot rejuvenate people after all. It is unrealistic to encourage the elderly to borrow money boldly for consumption. The shrinking consumption year by year will deprive the currently bright economic recovery of fertile credit soil.

What's more serious is that Europe's population cycle is consistent with that of the United States, and the two major economic sectors in Europe and the United States will fall into a long-term consumption ice age at the same time.

This will be a huge change in the economic and ecological environment for all emerging countries with severe excess production capacity mainly exporting to European and American markets. Countries that cannot adapt to this catastrophic level change will be eliminated, and the road ahead will be extremely difficult. "

Hearing this, Andy frowned, and said without any consideration: "There are two populous countries, China and India, and their markets..."

"Boss, whether it is China or India, they are emerging countries with severe excess production capacity, mainly exporting to the European and American markets, but China's market has not been fully liberalized, and their population policy makes them slowly move forward. With the aging population, the demographic dividend will gradually disappear in the next ten years. As for India, the gap between the rich and the poor is too large, and the large population makes the market huge, but their consumption power remains to be seen.”

Andy didn't feel unhappy because his subordinates interrupted him. On the contrary, after hearing the other party's explanation, he took it for granted. After explaining for a while, he also had a feeling of enlightenment.

As if to prove these points, Alvitre, who has been listening quietly, reported to Andy Hui: "Boss, I just got a set of data this morning showing that the revised retail sales data in January also showed a 1.8% increase. .”

Andy raised his eyebrows slightly and nodded. This is undoubtedly good news. It is good news that can drive the stock market to continue to rebound. The recovery of retail sales is regarded as a key indicator of economic reversal, because in the United States, sales expenditures account for a large share of the overall economic growth. two-thirds of.

"Has the news been released? It's good news. The retail data is making people feel that there is an independent force necessary to bring about economic recovery at this time."

The opening rally in U.S. stocks didn't last long, as gains in financial and technology stocks were offset by lower energy and medical sectors. Investors' optimism about the banking sector, in particular, quickly faded, and doubts surrounding the market's overall outlook at midday From time to time, the market was once again suppressed, and the major stock indexes even stopped rising and turned down.

If you want the stock market to continue to rebound and rise, you really need some good news to support it at this time. As for the stock index after midday, the stock index stopped rising and turned down. Let it out, but now that the retail sales data for January has risen, he will naturally not take this kind of good news that can obviously boost the stock market lightly.

Inventories are shrinking, supply and demand are gradually balancing, surviving companies will have a more solid foundation, and unemployment may gradually decrease. In this case, even ordinary people understand that these data are at least seeing the dawn of an economic reversal, even if it may not happen in the next few months.

"It has already been released. If the stock market still moves within a narrow range one hour before the close, the Fed will only be released if it implements more quantitative easing new policies. At least it must ensure that this year's rise will continue yesterday's rebound momentum." Alvitlie Said with a serious face.

Andy nodded, and then said to the young elite who explained before: "Jack Crowder, you did a good job, you made a wonderful explanation, keep working hard, and continue to research according to your direction. If there is indeed an inherent law in the economy , then the role of manpower must follow the trend, be familiar with the law and control the ups and downs, which is very important for investors."

"Thank you boss. I will continue to work hard." Jack Claude thanked the big boss for his recognition and praise with a little excitement.

"Well, in fact, you can go to Tianchao for a walk and have a look. For the big market of Tianchao, we can't miss the opportunity brought by their demographic dividend." Andy nodded in satisfaction, and then proposed.

"Okay, boss." Jack Crowder knew that his opportunity had come. In a think tank with a lot of talents, the only thing he was afraid of was that the boss would not notice, and being able to be assigned a job by the boss definitely indicated that there was an opportunity in front of him. How could he not hold on tightly.

Andy nodded in satisfaction with the other party's attitude, and continued to listen to other people's reports. The role of the think tank he wanted was to let these people use their brains and summarize the analysis, creativity and opinions of these elites. Broaden your mind, otherwise, why raise them!