American Fortune Life

"Let everyone have a chicken in the pot and a big house to live in." - Roosevelt

The American dream planted by Roosevelt back then gave Americans an irresistible obsession with housing and real estate.

For more than 50 years after the Great Depression, the old American economy has been relatively cautious, until around 199o, Washington decided to restore economic prosperity.

With the deregulation of various savings and loan companies, the US financial industry ushered in the second net, when Wall Street investment banks could be listed.

Moreover, the government began to encourage people to buy more houses, stimulate domestic demand, and stimulate economic growth. Banks tried to reduce or exempt payment requirements, such as adjusting interest rates and installment repayments.

Many fledgling speculators poured into the real estate industry at once, and the real estate boom began to rise.

In order to promote the development of the real estate market, the old American government even stipulated that the sale of houses would be exempted from capital gains tax, up to a maximum of 500,000 US dollars. This move has greatly promoted the rise of the room, and at the same time, in the concept of Americans, the real estate market has a bright future. Real estate developers began to advertise on TV programs, trying to convince people that investing in real estate is the only way to get rich.

At that time, whether it was Wall Street elites, businessmen looking for a tax haven, or high society ladies, ordinary white-collar workers, they all poured into the real estate industry, and everyone wanted to reach the pinnacle of life by dumping their houses.

(Hehe, does it feel like deja vu?)

Even so, the government feels that the incentives for house purchases are still not enough, and the government has introduced many laws, and there are even laws stipulating that banks will be fined if the bank loans do not reach the amount stipulated by the government.

In order to complete the loan quota explained above, the bank began to provide loans to some marginal home buyers with credit problems. It is the legendary subprime loan. The bank lending standard does not confirm the borrower's income certificate, and also clarifies the loan without property certificate , loans with no ratio limit, loans without documents and paperwork and so on are all kinds of ridiculous ways to play.

Stimulated by various policies of the bank, housing prices began to rise in a straight line again. Neither the government nor the people at that time thought that they were going down a road of no return.

Wall Street bankers are so smart. In order to make more money in the middle, they understand a lot of highly toxic financial instruments, such as mortgage-backed debt, well, simply put, leverage.

Anyway, the more money the bank borrows, the higher the leverage. Andy used to be a novice in finance, but after several months of self-study and reading a lot of books on related majors, he also has his own understanding. Leverage, the sentence he most recognized is: Leverage can sometimes make people go to heaven, but it is easier to make people go to hell!

In this way, the first big bubble in the history of American real estate officially began, and it has been going on for more than 10 years, until now 2007 years.

The Internet bubble burst in the US stock market in 2000, and 9/11 in 1001, which caused the US economy to enter a low ebb period. In order to reduce the unemployment rate and revitalize the economy, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates many times.

After interest rates were lowered, the yields of traditional fixed-income products such as bonds were very low, and the stock market was also in a downturn. There was nowhere to invest hot money. It was impossible for the rich to rush into real estate.

Housing prices have started to rise again, and there is no intention of stopping at all. Hollywood stars, Stallone, bad movie king Cage, etc. Well, Andy's three women are also part of this tide, Theron, Lima, Johnson . One after another joined this feast of real estate speculation. At the same time, in the news reports, various economic and investment experts raised placards to show their opinions, telling everyone that housing prices will not fall.

People, huh, huh, we are all social animals. Some social factors have a great influence on us. Since the media has been hyping that housing prices will not fall, and the government has not taken any measures, most people with a herd mentality will believe in housing prices. won't fall.

The number of small loan institutions is increasing rapidly, and the market conditions are good.

Real estate has become the main theme of Americans. Although housing prices are frighteningly high, the hot money of house buyers is still rising.

The real estate bubble is getting bigger and bigger. The Federal Reserve is aware of the seriousness of the problem, but it dare not act lightly. You know, the truth is a beautiful and terrible thing! Need to be treated with extreme caution.

From 2004 to 2006, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates cautiously and in small steps, but it was useless. Although raising interest rates suppressed inflation, long-term housing mortgage rates were still falling.

Andy put down the coffee cup in his hand and gently rubbed the space between his brows.

A collapse that has been concealed and cannot be concealed is finally about to begin.

Since July last year, the pace of housing price rises has already slowed down, and in many areas of the United States, it has even begun to decline. While it's rare for homeowners to notice the warning signs early on, there's no shortage of keen minds in the market.

In the next time, many active speculators will quickly start to cash out and withdraw from the market, and the curtain of terror that Andy is waiting for will also be lifted.

The decline in housing prices will lead to a break in the entire chain. People who used to buy houses with subprime mortgages will continue to increase their loan repayment burden, and the credit default rate will rise sharply. Housing prices will fall again and again. In exchange for money, just like that, more and more subprime home buyers have no money to repay their loans, and their loans will become bad debts.

But now, the market situation has begun to deteriorate, and many people have become homeless. Because of the burden of the economy, they are poor and white. They are unemployed and have no money to pay mortgages or build houses. They can only live in tents.

In the not-too-distant future, a large number of banks will fail, companies will go bankrupt, and the stock market will fluctuate violently. No one in all walks of life will be spared.

This subprime mortgage crisis caused by real estate will eventually spread out of control to the whole world.

(Although the national conditions are different and there are great differences in all aspects, we still need to prevent problems before they happen.)

History always has amazing similarities. When you look at the history of the world, you will find that human beings are accustomed to repeatedly falling down on things that have already been learned. Why?

The greed of human nature is at work, so it is difficult to say anything. It is a common habit of human beings to forget the pain when the scar is healed. When the crisis comes, why doesn't Andy do his best to give an early warning? Or for your own purpose, after holding a large number of CDS, stand up and sing the bad news about the real estate market to make people vigilant, and you can also achieve an early crash, why not do this?

Hehe, even the Federal Reserve dare not come head-on, who is Andy Smith? The power of advocating the real estate bubble cannot be countered by one person or an institution, or even a few. Who dares to stand up and be that "hero" with the combination of the whole people plus the government plus banks, Wall Street and other forces?

Andy will not be such an idiot, he has been making arrangements from the very beginning, hoping to take a low-key bite of this feast, not to be the first bird, and the silly 13 will make the world know about it.

The subprime mortgage crisis under the real estate collapse, the wave of bank failures under the subprime mortgage crisis, and the gold surge under the depreciation of the dollar. . .

This kind of chain reaction that affects the whole body is what Andy has been waiting for. He just feels that the time is a bit difficult, why not hurry up, the savior, ah!

Under the gray sky, Andy was wearing a dark blue coat, strolling along the 500-meter Wall Street, standing in front of the copper bull sculpture representing wealth, exhaling hot air, with the corners of his mouth turned up, showing a cold smile, looking at the people from around him. People who keep walking by.

"Crack."

"Boss, the photo has been taken." Tori walked quickly to Andy's side, handed him the digital camera, and said softly.

Andy took the camera, looked at it and said: "Let someone deal with it, increase the depth of field, except for me and this cow, the other scenes are blurred, and then zoomed in. March 1st, today is a memorable day! "

"Okay, boss, so where are you going next?" The little assistant took the camera and turned it off, put it in his bag, and asked softly, looking at the big devil's tall figure and broad back.

"I'm hungry, I'm looking for a restaurant, I want to eat beef with blood..."

Andy looked back with a charming sunny smile.

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