Chong Sheng 1977Nian Cong Zhi Qing Kai Shi

Eman Rowland rationalized his thinking and said: "In 1993, the severe cold weather in the United States led to rising food prices, and the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) rose from a low of 49.6% in June 1993 to 56% in January 1994 under the economic recovery. .

From the low point in September 1993 to before the first interest rate hike, the agricultural product price index rose by 16.9%, industrial metal prices also rose by 19.1%, and crude oil basically stabilized. Although the CPI (Consumer Price Index) did not rise because of this, the Fed believes that economic growth and pressure on food raw material prices may push up inflation.

In February 1994, after the interest rate hike started, the price of agricultural products fell and the growth rate of industrial metals slowed down for a while. However, energy prices began to rise at this time, rising by 16.8% from the low point to the third 25BP increase in interest rates.

In May 1994, oil prices and industrial metals continued to rise, and the Federal Reserve accelerated interest rate hikes by 50BP.

Although the CPI is still not high, the CPI in April before the May meeting was 2.5% year-on-year, unchanged from March, but the cumulative increase in oil prices has reached 26.6%, while industrial metals surged again and hit new highs before raising interest rates in May.

The members of the Federal Reserve are worried that the monetary policy that is still not tight enough may still push up the price of resource goods, which will lead to new inflation risks. Therefore, the accelerated rate hike is to eliminate the loose environment under the still very low short-term real interest rate.

In August 1994, oil prices and industrial metals continued to rise, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50BP again.

Before the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) in August, oil prices and industrial metals continued to rise. Although the PMI fell slightly to 58%, it was still at a high level. Federal Reserve officials believe that the economy is still expanding rapidly. Although the economy may slow down in the near future, further measures are still needed to ensure that inflationary pressures continue to be contained, otherwise the risk of inflationary pressures expanding is high.

In November 1994, oil prices fell but industrial metal prices remained high, inflation rose, and the labor market was tense. The Fed accelerated interest rate hikes by 75BP again.

Before the acceleration of interest rate hikes in November, oil prices had fallen somewhat, but industrial metal prices were still at record highs, and CPI rose to 3% year-on-year. Based on this, the Fed believes that the economy is still stronger than expected, with many industries operating at above-average capacity levels. Under the influence of previous monetary policy tightening, the economy did slow down, but there was no sign of a sustainable slowdown. In the environment of rising CPI and tight labor force, inflation is still under pressure, and monetary policy is still not tight enough.

In February of this year, industrial metals reached a new high, with a cumulative increase of 80%. The Fed raised interest rates again by 50BP: the PMI data fell to 56.1% in December 1994, and oil prices were basically in a consolidation trend. Completely eliminated, the cumulative increase from the low point before the interest rate hike to January 1995 was 80%.

Therefore, although Fed officials believe that the economy will slow down sharply in 1995, further tightening is still necessary to achieve the inflation target, and the speed reduction to 50BP is to reduce the risk of an overly strict policy path, such as a blow to consumer and business confidence , and the resulting financial market disruption.

In addition, from the perspective of term spreads, according to "the Fed after Greenspan" written by Mishkin, who was then the research director of the New York Fed, after the first three moderate interest rate hikes of 25BP in 1994, long-term treasury bond interest rates and short-term interest rates rose almost at the same pace. Therefore, the term spread has not shrunk significantly, which can be understood as the market does not believe in the Fed's determination to control inflation.

After the Federal Reserve accelerated its rate hike in May, the 10-year U.S. bond rate stopped following the rise of the benchmark interest rate, and the term spread began to narrow. After raising the interest rate sharply by 75BP in November, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate even dropped sharply, and the interest rate spread was close to inversion.

The U.S. economy has slowed down significantly this year. In April, the U.S. unemployment rate reversed and began to rise. The PMI also fell into the contraction range (46.7%) for the first time in May after falling continuously from January. Although the CPI is still on the rise, the price of industrial metals, which the Federal Reserve is worried about, has also fallen since January.

The minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in March this year showed that participants agreed that the economy has slowed down and is on a sustainable path. Although the CPI has not yet returned to 3%, members believe that it is better to pause and assess the outlook before taking further action. Safe way. As a result, the Fed stopped raising rates after February.

All in all, several interest rate hikes have achieved a soft landing for the US economy, and Greenspan's forward-looking interest rate hikes have been successful. "

Nan Ruofing then asked: "Why didn't the rapid rate hike trigger an economic recession?"

"Although the interest rate hikes in 1994 were large and fast, in the context of the previous round of substantial easing (the federal funds rate continued to fall from 8% in the early 1990s to 3%), the current round of interest rate hikes is not very large , from the results, the increase in financial conditions is not large (finally did not break through 0).

In addition, the precautionary rapid rate hike also leaves room for future policy adjustments. Shortly after the last rate hike in February this year, Greenspan hinted at a congressional hearing that monetary policy may be loosened to promote economic recovery.

In addition, another key factor for achieving a soft landing is that the external environment is relatively stable, and the world's major economies have basically emerged from recession and are showing signs of recovery. Germany and Japan were already out of recession in 1994 when the Fed's rate-hiking cycle began. In the minutes of the FOMC meeting in July 1994, the Federal Reserve also mentioned the rapid recovery of the economies of industrial countries such as Japan, Germany, and France.

At the same time, the North American Free Trade Agreement came into effect at the beginning of 1994, and the World Trade Organization was formally established at the beginning of this year, which realized the substantial expansion of trade under the acceleration of globalization, and helped the United States to achieve a soft landing to a certain extent. "

"After Volcker managed inflation in the 1980s, the Federal Reserve under the leadership of Greenspan attached great importance to inflation, so it adopted a forward-looking framework for raising interest rates. When the output gap has not yet turned positive, inflationary pressures are emerging. The advantage of raising interest rates decisively is that the economy has a better cushion in terms of kinetic energy and space.

The success of this soft landing is due to the fact that the U.S. monetary policy has been very flexible. It can increase when it needs to be increased, and it can be lowered when it needs to be lowered. You said that Greenspan hinted at the congressional hearing that "the monetary policy may be loosened to promote economic recovery", What he means is that it is possible to respond to the emergence of an economic recession in advance, that is, to cut interest rates and preventive rate cuts.

At the same time, luck is also very important. A stable external environment is an important guarantee for the Fed's precise regulation. In 1994, Germany and Japan came out of recession, and the world resonated and recovered; major countries reached a multilateral trade agreement, and the WTO was about to be established; Russia was still under the pro-British and American Boris; the biggest increase in oil prices was 47%, and the annual increase was 25%, which was still controllable .

Between 1994 and 1995, there were no major shocks to derail the soft landing the Fed was trying to achieve.

OK, that’s the end of the historical analysis. Let’s analyze the future, whether the rate cut will be implemented, when will it be implemented, and what chain reaction will it cause once it is implemented. "

Eman Rolland thought for a while and said: "First, the most direct impact of interest rate cuts is to reduce the return on risk-free funds. Funds are all profit-seeking and are very sensitive to returns. If savings are not worthwhile, they will flow out of financial institutions. Provide an active foundation for the entire economy, thereby driving the vitality and development of the economy.

Gold will have a short-term rising market, and the stock market will have a longer-term market. Combining the prosperity of the Internet and the prosperity of technology stocks, there will be a long-term bull market in US stocks.

Second, the lower yields of U.S. treasury bonds make it difficult for international funds to take advantage of the high interest rates of U.S. treasury bonds to arbitrage the price difference between different countries' treasury bonds.

Third, to promote the US dollar to leave the United States, the US dollar interest rate cut, relative to the interest rates of other countries, is equivalent to a disguised increase, which promotes the further globalization of the US dollar.

Fourth, the rate cut of the U.S. dollar will naturally affect the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, thereby triggering the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, making American goods relatively cheaper and better sold globally.

Fifth, there is a certain anti-correlation relationship between the financial capital market and interest rates, which rises and falls like a seesaw. Cutting interest rates will strongly stimulate financial markets such as securities, futures, foreign exchange, and precious metals.

These five points are the impact on the United States, and there are also international impacts:

First, the pressure of capital outflow from other countries has been greatly reduced, and the interest rate of the U.S. dollar has been lowered. Relatively, the interest rates of currencies in other regions appear to be higher, which is conducive to retaining international funds.

Second, reduce the pressure on other countries to raise interest rates, and even provide room for interest rate cuts. Through interest rate cuts, the financial burden of industrial and commercial enterprises can be reduced, and economic vitality can be promoted.

Third, promote the further activation of the global economy, release liquidity, and looser funding. It will make funds flow from the United States to other countries, which is conducive to the stable development of industrial and commercial enterprises, real estate, and financial markets.

Fourth, the rate cut of the U.S. dollar will affect the U.S. dollar exchange rate, making U.S. goods relatively cheaper and increasing competitive pressure. Especially for some low-end commodities, the competition of grain and raw materials may intensify.

Fifth, it will encourage more people to come to the United States for tourism, study, and shopping. The lower exchange rate of the US dollar is equivalent to the appreciation of the currencies of some countries. The same money can be exchanged for more US dollars. Why not? "

Nan Ruofing smiled and said: "Why not do it, Eman, your Chinese has improved rapidly. I let you learn Chinese not because my mother tongue is Chinese. In fact, I grew up in an environment where Chinese, English and French coexisted. Growing up in China, Papa has always paid great attention to developing my language skills.

Huaguo has great potential to become a major economy in the world. During its growth, we have many opportunities to reap dividends. If we want to make profits, we need to get close to it and understand it. Communication is the foundation of everything, and language is the tool of communication. "

"The pole is long, the bench is wide, the bench is not as long as the pole, and the pole is not as wide as the bench. The pole needs to be tied to the bench, and the bench does not allow the pole to be tied to the bench. The pole must be tied to the bench... Haha, my tongue is very Uncomfortable." Emman Roland said, sticking out his tongue.

"Mediocre, mediocre, mediocre, Eman, if you have someone to learn, learn slowly. Let's go, let's go back and make a plan." While walking with the materials, Nan Ruofeng suddenly said: "Eman, you Do you think the Backstreet Boys will be famous?"

[In 1993, the Backstreet Boys held a national campus tour after its establishment. In fact, many things, students on the university campus will come into contact with them earlier than people in society. ]

"Yes, I like Nick, they have a concert, I will definitely go."

"Maybe, I like old men like Simon and Garfunkel better, and I can feel the precipitation of the years from them."

"Comeon, Rachel, we're young people."

"Yeah, I'm young!"

A catkin passed through Nanyi's abdominal muscles, taking away his youth and leaving behind lumps of toothpaste foam.

Nanyi took the razor under the tap and rinsed it, then shaved again. Suddenly, his nose twitched and he said, "Why do I feel that the razor has a strange smell?"

Ruan Mei, who was brushing her teeth standing behind Nan Yi, laughed and said, "I couldn't find my razor the day before yesterday. I used yours."

Nan Yi was stunned and said, "Where is the scrape?"

"What do you say?"

Nan Yi glared fiercely at the mirror, "This is not an example."

"I'm not, next time I'll use your towel to wipe the toilet." Ruan Mei pouted.

"You continue to disgust me, one day I'll settle the score with you." Nan Yi stretched out his right hand, pulled Ruan Mei's towel from the towel rack and wiped his cheeks and chin.

"Hate, why use my towel."

"Nonsense, I'm going to use it to clean the toilet."

Ruan Mei patted Nan Yi resentfully, and continued to brush her teeth.

After the two came out of the bathroom, they began to discuss where to go for breakfast. Nan Yi wanted to have porridge, and Ruan Mei wanted to eat pineapple oil. After arguing for a while, they couldn't tell the winner. Go for the English breakfast.

On Johnston Road, across from Hechang Dabao, Nan Yi ate the breakfast set meal Ruan Mei ordered, which was full of girlish decorations, and his eyes were always on Hechang Dabao on the opposite side.

Hechang Daya is composed of 4 connected tenement buildings with long corridor-style balconies. The basic structure of the buildings is wood, the walls are made of bricks, the floors are made of wood, and there are terraces covered by windows. It is a commercial building with a high floor, a light well, large French windows leading to the balcony, and a balcony corridor facing Johnston Road.

After watching for a while, Nan Yi turned around and said to Ruan Mei, "Do you know how old this house is?"

Ruan Mei glanced at it and said, "It's been almost a hundred years."

"The location is good, and the house has a history. If you buy it and renovate it, you can use it to open a unique restaurant,"

"Yeah?"

Ruan Mei muttered, stood on tiptoe, stretched her neck and looked at the opposite side.

After a while, she sat back in her seat and said to Nanyi, "That's not bad, do you have an idea?"

"It's not that I have an idea, it's whether you have an idea or not. If you have an idea, move on and do things yourself. I will pay the money and the property rights belong to you. Take it as my compensation for cutting your TONY shares."

"Humph, a restaurant is worth 40% of TONY's shares?"

"TONY is worth a lot of money under my control, but under your control before, the value of the entire TONY is not as good as the restaurant, let alone 40% of the shares, so the responsibility lies with you, not me. I didn't hold you accountable for what you wasted. For a few years, just have fun."

Nan Yi rushed behind and waved, took an envelope from the approaching Tianxian and put it in front of Ruan Mei, "This year's Paris Spring/Summer Fashion Week VIP ticket, I heard that Leonardo was invited to the Versace dinner, you can Go see the handsome guy."

"Ani from "A Different Sky"?" Ruan Mei picked up the envelope and opened it.

"Um."

"Not interested, I like Gilbert (played by Johnny Depp)."

"Then look at the clothes, the season is changing, it's time to buy some clothes."

Ruan Mei stared suspiciously at Nanyi for a long while, then said with a sad face, "Young man, are you trying to compensate me? Is it because we haven't seen each other for a long time?"

"Ha, you are overthinking, I didn't say that I would be responsible for your installation fee." Nan Yi said guilty.

"real?"

"uh-huh."

"Okay." Ruan Mei looked at the front and back of the admission ticket, "I haven't been to Europe for a long time, this time I'm going to Paris, and I want to go to Vienna by the way."

"As long as you don't delay work, you can do whatever you want."

During the day, Nan Yi spent time handling work and accompanying Nan Ruoqi. In the evening, after eating some leftovers from Nan Ruoqi, Nan Yi went to the Lijia Hotel to participate in the reception of the first summit forum of the Xiangxi Real Estate Association.

Regardless of the great name of the Real Estate Association, it does not actually have much influence, not to mention the top-ranked group companies, even Luo Zhaohui did not participate in this association.

Look through the member directory of the association, and you will find companies that you have never heard of before. Then look at the individual member directory, such as the operation manager, legal manager, assistant general manager, partner, site director (person in charge of a construction site) of a certain company jobs) abound.

It is rare to have a few titles such as president, chairman and executive director. Just looking at the company name, you can tell that the company is not too big. Maybe there are only three or five people working in the factory building.

Real estate in Hong Kong is completely different from other industries. The general pattern is fixed. There is no possibility of a small company slowly growing into a large company. Almost all the good land is concentrated in the hands of a few rich people. Without land, the bull devil can only plow when he comes over. other people's land.

The reason why Nanyi came here is because most of the people participating in the forum are the seed players of the game of drumming and passing flowers, and they are also the funders of the Pan-South Department. Whether the current wave of housing market can get a bonus depends on everyone present. level of concentration.

Holding a glass of champagne in hand, Nanyi stood in the corner, looking at the crowd gathered in twos and threes, trying to distinguish which one was the creative real estate buyer, and which one was the Fang's real estate or ga service person, Nanyi came in person Shoufeng, how could the three companies related to real estate speculation not send people over.

His own people couldn't tell the difference, but Nanyi saw Lin Hanlie, standing in front of a round table with a wine glass in his hand, and said something to a woman. There was a man who looked kind.

Nan Yi searched in his mind, but he couldn't find a matching name. It is very likely that he didn't know the names of the two of them at all.

In Nan Yi's eyes, the woman invited Lin Hanlie to sit down, and then introduced the strange man beside him to Lin Hanlie. Lin Hanlie's eyes would stop at the woman from time to time.

"interesting."

Nanyi muttered, and called Tianxian to his side, "Inquire about the names of the couple next to Lin Hanlie."

Tianxian came back shortly after leaving, "Nan Sheng, the girl's name is Cai Kaibing, a female director of ATV, and the boy's name is Yang Jia'an. He was an actor in ATV before. "Yuan Jia", he played Huo Yuanjia's big apprentice."

"Oh, I said they look so familiar, do you know what the relationship between the two of them is?" Nan Yi suddenly realized.

"It seems to be a lover relationship. The person I found to inquire about is not very clear."

"It's okay, it's enough to know these things, I'm just gossip."

After Nanyi waved his hand to let Tianxian leave, he took a closer look at Cai Kaibing. He was above average in appearance, but at this age, it is unlikely that Lin Hanlie would have a preference for this age. Maybe Cai Kaibing has something that Lin Hanlie needs.

Filming in Xiangtang cannot be done without clubs and Tuo land fees. If you can film safely, you must have a certain face in the club, and you can’t avoid dealing with actresses when filming. Naturally, you also have to contact the financial backers behind the actresses. If you are a director, if you can afford it , He has accumulated a lot of contacts in both black and white, and this may be what Lin Hanlie fancy.

Nan Yi was doing analysis in his head, keeping the names of Lin Hanlie and Yang Jia'an in his heart, and included them in the ranks of VIPs. When the "game" came to an end, he might be able to sell properties of suitable value to them.

"My heart is too soft. As long as the house is in my hand for seven or eight years, after the low tide period, whether it will be extremely prosperous and make a lot of money. The opportunity to make a fortune is given to you. It is up to you whether you can grasp it. Do business? , keep your feet on the ground, don’t think about operating in debt, seven or eight years go by so fast, and it will pass in a blink of an eye.”

The pattern of less land and more people in Xiangtang is deliberately created here. Housing prices are generally rising. As long as it is not debt speculation, a temporary drop in housing prices will not kill you. As long as you survive the low tide period, the skyrocketing period will always come. It is impossible to lose money when buying a property in Xiangtang, it is nothing more than a matter of profit.

Nan Yi stayed at the reception for dozens of minutes, and when someone focused on him, he left the Ritz-Carlton Hotel.

On the way home, halfway through the journey, there was a feeling of hunger in his stomach. Nanyi asked Tianxian to find a place to eat supper. Tianxian turned around and entered Hennessy Road, and stopped in front of a porridge stall.

After getting off the car, Nanyi asked Tianxian, who also hadn't eaten dinner, to sit together at the small table at the door, ordered a casserole porridge, and ordered golden fried steamed buns and braised meat platter. Just after placing the order, a car arrived at Nanyi Yi's car stopped and glanced at the license plate, Nan Yi knew that Bo Qiong was coming.

It is relatively easy to identify people by car in Hong Kong. Rich families almost all have their own exclusive license plates, ranging from single digits to individual English. It doesn’t take a lot of brain cells to remember them all.

Seeing Bo Qiong getting off the car, Nan Yi raised his hand and waved at him.

Judging by the posture of the other party, you can tell that they are also here to drink porridge. If you can't hide, it's better to fight for the initiative.

When Bo Qiong saw Nan Yi, he nodded slightly and walked over to him.

"Nan Sheng, what a coincidence."

"It's not a coincidence. I've known Ms. Bo for more than ten years, and today is the second time I met by chance." Nan Yi said, making a gesture of please sit down.

Bo Qiong sat down opposite Nanyi generously, "Is the last time on the boat the first time?"

"Not counting, the first time on the road, when Ms. Bo was still Ms. Bo, you drove a sports car through the traffic, afraid of being hit by you, my car deliberately stayed away from you. Casserole porridge, pig The porridge base is served with seafood and frogs, are you used to it?"

Nanyi ordered a large casserole porridge, free porridge base, free mix of other seafood, enough for three people as a supper.

After tasting Pin Nanyi's words, Bo Qiong was stunned for a while before replying: "I come here often and have eaten every kind of porridge."

"Oh, then there is no need to add an order. Miss Bo, just got off work?"

"Nansheng, Shixian and I have a very good relationship. You don't have to call me Miss Bo, you can just call me Bo Qiong."

"Okay, you can also call me Nanyi directly." Nanyi nodded.

Bo Qiong nodded and said, "It's not that I just got off work. I'm too bored. I'm going to the bar. I don't want to drink on an empty stomach, so I came here for something to eat."

"That's it, it's a pity, I'm not very convenient today, otherwise I can have a few drinks with you."

"Understood, Shixian is not here, you have to go back to see the child."

As soon as Nan Yi heard it, he knew that the relationship between Bo Qiong and Zhao Shixian had reached the level of girlfriends.

Although the news that Nanyi and Zhao Shixian have children has not been strictly sealed to the outside world, there are many people who have seen them raising children together in Deep Water Bay and Repulse Bay, but they only stay in the scope of speculation and gossip. As long as Nanyi and Zhao Shixian do not If it is clearly announced to the public, no one will bring this matter up on the scene, especially in front of the two of them.

Since Bo Qiong pointed it out directly, it means that Zhao Shixian has already informed the other party about this matter.

"Yes, the child is still young, and I seldom stay in Xiangtang, so I must seize the time to fulfill my responsibilities as a father."

"Nanyi, are you usually in the Mainland?"

"In the past two years, I have spent a lot of time in the mainland, and I used to fly around the world."

As long as Nan Yi went abroad, he would inevitably transit in Xiangtang, but Fan Boqiong wanted to check, and his general whereabouts could not be concealed, so he did not conceal it deliberately, and told the truth.

"Your home is in the Mainland?"

Nan Yi frowned, he could tell that the "home" that Bo Qiong asked did not mean his hometown, but "a home with a wife".

"Shixian is an adult with sound intelligence. She knows everything she should know. As an outsider, it's better not to get involved too deeply. It's not appropriate."

Bo Qiong said with a self-mockery: "Maybe it's empathy, I asked something that shouldn't be asked, sorry."

"Understood, your matter is not a secret, I have heard it, I don't know the inside story, but from the perspective of an outsider, you and Xu Sheng can't tell who is right."

"That's right." Bo Qiong raised his hand and fiddled with the earrings, mocking himself again, "I'm not qualified to be a resentful woman, so I just turned a blind eye to his outside affairs."

In fact, in terms of husband and wife relationship, Nanyi quite understands Xu Shiheng. His wife wears the earrings given by her ex-boyfriend every day, and engraves the words "Unforgettable old love" on her face. Stop pretending, break the jar, restore your nature, and continue to spend time and drink outside.

Nan Yi didn't want to talk about other people's family affairs. If Bo Qiong hadn't crossed the line first, he wouldn't have mentioned it at all.

He also had some guesses about Bo Qiong's state of mind at this time—probably because I don't like you, I was forced to marry you, but you have to play the role of husband well for me, not only can't spend time and money, but also the previous lover, I have to clean up.

If he didn't guess like this, Nan Yi couldn't connect the Bo Qiong in front of him with the Bo Qiong who was playing against Liu Jiajia on the cruise ship.

"Sorry, I shouldn't mention your matter. Let's talk about something else. Does the Top 100 Group have cruise ships and hotels?"

Hearing that Nanyi turned the topic to business, Bo Qiong's shrewdness immediately gathered from his limbs to his delicate heart, and he said with a straight face: "Yes."

"I have a project that is very suitable for your group to participate in. I will be busy with other things next month. Let's make an appointment someday in July and I will explain the project to you."

"Is the project huge?"

"It's not small, it started to operate a few years ago. If we can cooperate successfully, the Top 100 Group will not only get the benefits of the project, but also help your family's main business. So, I want to give you a vaccination first, My conditions will be more stringent, for you, the investment is large, but the profit sharing can only account for a small part."

"Really? You said that, which made me more interested." Boqiong said with great interest.