Consumer male god

Han Lie's refinement of the characteristics of the new round of bull market is completely different from the previous analysis logic, but it is so thought-provoking.

If you have a lot of money, can it be considered a feature?

Under normal circumstances, this is not possible, because ample funds are a necessary condition for a bull market and are the underlying foundation for all bull markets.

Without the concentrated injection of external funds, how can it be possible to become successful if it relies entirely on the stock in the market?

However, when Han Lie added those attributive words, knowledgeable people thought about it again and finally realized the difference.

There is a difference between money and money, there is a difference between more and more, and the current environment...

Hiss~~~

The venue was quiet for a moment, and suddenly there was a slight buzz.

The professionals gasped, becoming more surprised and shocked the more they thought about it.

Mr. Xu, who had always been quiet and low-key, finally couldn't help it anymore. He raised his hand to get a microphone, frowned and asked with a serious expression: "Mr. Han, so you judge that this bull market is a typical capital-driven market bull?"

Han Lie was a little surprised.

Yo, you can't sit still?

Interesting...

Han Lie was very sure that in the original history, the chief helmsman had a different view on this bull market.

Around 4,000 points, Mr. Xu made it clear at a gathering: The current fundamentals do not support the stock market’s continued upward trend, and this is a stage of irrational madness.

"I don't understand."

"Sustainability is questionable."

"If you do this, how will it end?"

Not only did he say this, but Zexi indeed had a short position until 5100 points.

When the net worth of all private equity investments was skyrocketing, he was short.

This was one of the few times when Xu Xiang lagged behind his peers because he was "too timid".

Until the stock market crash happened, on July 9, he used more than 10 billion in funds to enter the market to hunt for the bottom. He exited the market in about half a month and made a profit of nearly 80%.

That was his battle to become a god, and it was also his last swan song in this world.

To be fair, Lao Xu's sensitivity to the market may be one in a million. However, even a big bull like him was confused by the mad bull at that time and went short...

So, moving the time forward a full year, on March 22, 2014, the bull market had not yet shown any signs, and Han Lie had even predicted the biggest feature of the entire market in advance...

Who can not be shocked? !

The chief helmsman's question not only failed to stop the discussion in the venue, but instead made all kinds of noise more chaotic.

"Does Mr. Xu disagree?"

"Actually, I think it's too outrageous..."

"But I think there's nothing wrong with Mr. Han's logic. It's true!"

"The logic is indeed self-consistent, but it's only March! Who can be sure how the overall environment will change next year?!"

"Monetary policy must definitely turn! It is impossible to continue to tighten!"

"Yes, interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are a high probability event, but what if the intensity is not as strong as expected?!"

"Come on! If there is another money shortage this year, a large part of the real industry will die!"

“Do you understand what active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy are?”

"What about real estate loan restrictions? At the meeting at the beginning of this year, the focus was on purchase restrictions and cooling down!"

"The question is, if the property market continues to decline, how long can local governments be able to sustain it?"

"I'm afraid it's not just the place that can't bear it, right?"

"What about conduction delay? Don't you think about it?!"

"Hey, think about the marketization of interest rates that Teacher Han initially summarized! Judging from the high probability that the United States will end QE this year, we may really have to wait for a turn..."

The professionals started arguing from all angles.

The people who support Han Lie and the people who can't believe it are almost equally divided. No one is convinced by the other.

Even though Han Lie just said "a lot of money", which seemed to be an understatement, in fact it contains a set of comprehensive judgments based on economic principles, and the goal of the judgment is the future direction of the entire macro economy.

The knowledge content is so high that it is difficult for non-professionals to imagine.

Therefore, the sense of participation was immediately filled up. Everyone had their own opinions, so I didn’t complain or feel unhappy.

In the midst of such noise, Han Lie spoke softly and responded directly to Mr. Xu.

"Yes, that's what I think. There are three basic logics."

As soon as he finished speaking, the noisy venue suddenly became quiet, and more than 600 customers listened attentively.

“First, high-level officials have made it clear that the loan and purchase restriction policy will not change in a short period of time, and it will take some time to restore market confidence after the change. Therefore, we judge that the downturn in the property market is unlikely to be effectively alleviated until the end of the year.

Therefore, the property market's reservoir function is temporarily locked, leaving a large amount of money with nowhere to go.

Second, due to the influence of the international and domestic environment, the central bank's monetary policy will be a clear curve from caution to stability to stability and flexibility.

Coupled with the exploration of market-oriented interest rate reforms, monetary easing is irreversibly on the way.

This part of the content is limited by time, and I cannot expand on it further. You can feel the direction of the wind for yourself after you go back, and review the policy interpretation of Teacher Chu Hongfang.

Third, the explosive growth of Internet finance is combined with traditional private lending, and a large amount of private small capital is gathering into a sea.

Whether it is the emerging P2P industry, or the emerging online consumer finance, or even commercial banks with strong desire to exit the market under the pressure of loan restrictions, too many funds that once did not have the urge to enter the market are ready to move.

Three factors are exerting pressure together, and this year's bull market is bound to happen.

In the early stage, it will go out of a form that is no different from the previous bull markets. Then, when the money-making effect spreads to a wider class, the influence of massive idle funds will appear in a very short time.

Therefore, the explosive power of this round of market will obviously exceed that of 2007.

And it is not a structured market, but a general rising market.

However, due to the continuous expansion of the market, the total market value now far exceeds that of the past, and the final top point is unlikely to exceed the 07 bull market.

Here, I would like to make a purely intuitive speculation without any data basis - the high point of this bull market will be difficult to break through 5,200 points.

You can remember the numbers I mentioned and verify them yourself when the time comes.

Of course, this number will not provide any guidance for my operations. I will constantly adjust my operating ideas based on the actual market trends.

At the same time, I want to talk about the third question: How long will this bull market last?

The answer is self-evident.

The explosive power corresponds to a relatively short duration. This cannot be a round of slow bulls and long bulls. The duration is approximately equal to the closed period of my [Supernova 1], which is within one and a half years.

The above are all my judgments and reasons for this bull market.

Mr. Xu, are you satisfied with my answer? "

"I am very satisfied."

Xu Xiang's expression was still serious, but he didn't say much. Instead, he handed over the microphone and quietly held his chin in thought.

This seriousness is not anger or disapproval.

On the contrary, Xu Xiang felt that he had benefited a lot and received a lot of inspiration.

At the same time, there were many professionals who were lost in thought, and the venue gradually became quiet.

However, Han Lie didn't care at all how much time they needed to understand, and suddenly accelerated the pace.

"Then, based on the judgment of the general rise, my second set of fixed investment plans strikes a balance between income and safety. The investment targets are several large-market indexes such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETFs.

If you are willing to trust my judgment and agree that the bull market is coming, but you don’t know how to choose stocks, or you simply don’t have time to pay attention to the stock market, then you can make fixed investments.

Since quite a few of the VIPs who came to the scene do not have professional knowledge or long-term investment experience, I will not talk about professional terminology in this part, but will tell you the real industry rate of return.

As of today, there are approximately 1,600 private equity funds in the industry, as well as multiple public offerings and trust products.

Among them, less than 8% of managers can outperform the market in the long term.

What does that mean?

In 2000, if you bought index funds and held them with your eyes closed until the end of this year, your income would exceed 92% of various institutions.

Some may find it unbelievable, but it is true.

Why?

Because outperforming the market itself is a very difficult thing, and various private and public offerings also charge subscription fees, management fees, handling fees, and profit dividends.

They are often affected by non-market factors when conducting market operations.

In the final analysis, there are only a few products and institutions that can achieve a true compound annualized rate of return of more than 10%.

For example, Mr. Xu’s Zexi is number one in the industry.

everybody knows.

But who can name the third-largest company and product in the private equity industry?

Can't you scream?

So there is really no need for you to be overly superstitious about the so-called professionals. They are indeed more professional than you, but now that I have made the specific points public, what is the gap between you?

In this bull market, if institutions do not do well in adjusting positions and exchanging shares, they may not necessarily be able to outperform the market.

However, ETF index funds have steadily outperformed the market.

At least the cost is low and there are no fees.

Although I am also engaged in private equity, but you have paid a lot of money to listen to my class, so I have to tell the truth.

I am not afraid of offending my colleagues, let alone settling accounts with everyone.

Take my [Supernova No. 1] as an example. I am indeed sure to make high profits in this bull market, but my management fee has to be 5%, and my profit dividend terms are also very harsh.

In the end, the index may only have risen 2.5 times, and my [Supernova No. 1] profit has been 6 times. However, after deducting dividends and so on, the money you make from buying my fund is not necessarily better than what you make from buying ETFs. More money.

This is the truth, and my professional ethics require me to make it clear to you.

Therefore, my fund is only suitable for a few types of people——

For example, entrepreneurs who are very busy with their daily work have no time or energy to waste in the stock market.

For example, a pure newcomer with no investment foundation at all.

For example, rich and idle people who don't want to operate by themselves, who don't want to be emotionally affected by market fluctuations every day, and who pay more attention to the quality of life than making money.

For these people, you entrust your spare money to me, and then work and live freely, waiting for the final settlement. This is spending money to buy experience.

As for other friends who have the ability to operate by themselves, I suggest that you'd better make fixed investments by yourself. Whatever you earn is yours and you don't need to share it with anyone.

Fixed investment is very simple. When the stock index reaches around 2000 points, you can directly buy ETF index funds according to your preference, such as SSE 50 or CSI 300.

I have 5 million spare money today, buy it.

After two months, I have 5 million spare money, and the index has not risen much, so I buy it again.

You can invest at any time before the bull market starts.

Then hold it until the bull market ends and easily double your investment.

For one and a half years, the profit was about 1.5 times without leverage and 3 to 5 times with leverage.

The risk is almost zero - entering the market at more than 1900 points, where can it fall further?

In my dream, I would like to see ICBC fall below 3 yuan, and then buy it for 10 or 20 billion, but this is unrealistic.

If nothing else, my [Skyline One] will purchase a considerable portion of ETF index funds with about twice the leverage as a ballast.

I'm not afraid to share my operating ideas with you. Do you dare to follow me?

A ticket worth 2 million yuan is not a loss after talking to you to this extent, right? "

As soon as Han Lie finished speaking, applause broke out again.

Quite a few laymen who just came to join in the fun were aroused, ready to move, enthusiastic, and wanted to slap their hands in pieces.

"Teacher Han is so awesome!"

People who are not familiar with Han Lie expressed heartfelt emotions.

So honest, so kind, so down-to-earth, he really... made me cry to death!

"This is what we call a fund manager who is capable, ethical, pursuing, and ambitious..."

Brothers, vote for him!

And those private equity colleagues are in trouble.

Damn it, if you don’t want to make money yourself, don’t drag us to death together!

No... you're going to sell out both of your fucking funds and make a lot of money, and then you're going to tear us down? !

These big guys in the same industry stared at Han Lie with hatred.

But it's useless.

The private equity industry is too independent and too technical.

A few so-called big guys can work together to make illegal money, but they have no influence on other peers.

The kind of thing that often happens in other industries where the big brothers work together to suppress the younger brothers does not exist in the private equity circle.

How to encircle and suppress?

Everyone is crowded into the same check, and you don’t even know who is carrying the sedan chair for whom!

Gou Lie sacrificed his peers and established his image and reputation, which was a real profit.

Among the more than 600 people present, how many colleagues are there?

Most of them are new and old leeks, and their recognition and admiration are the most important wealth.

Then, taking advantage of this wave of emotional fluctuations, Gou Lietu had a clear vision and started the most important operation of the day.

"Okay, stop, let's hurry up and finish all three plans today."

Han Lie smiled and waved his hand, turning the PPT to the last two pages.

"The first two plans are both low-risk operations that you can operate by yourself. They pay more attention to safety and do not earn excess returns.

If you are an activist investor who insists on high risk and high return, and then ask me for specific stocks, to be honest, I don't have any.

I don’t know how the market will go, which sectors and which stocks will become the monsters and kings.

I am not a fortune teller, so I cannot speak irresponsibly. I can only try my best to catch the market when it comes out.

Therefore, the third plan is the [Skyline One Hybrid Stable Grading Fund] that our company will soon issue.

And it’s the inferior part of it.

This fund will be controlled and operated by me personally. About 50% of the position will be used to purchase ETF index funds, and the other 50% will be used to operate specific stocks to obtain high-risk excess returns.

The total amount of the inferior part is 2.5 billion, and 1 billion has been sold so far. Then our company will invest 500 million by itself, leaving a balance of 1 billion.

Once the income is not as expected, the priority principal and interest will be allocated from our own funds.

Since it is a high-risk product without any guarantee, please purchase with caution..."

Before Han Lie could finish his words, something exploded underneath.

cautious?

Be cautious!

"Teacher Han, how do I sign up?"

Fatty Chen raised his hands vigorously, fearing that Han Lie wouldn't be able to see him.

Da Jinya jumped up, his face flushed with excitement: "Teacher Han, I'll buy it for 100 million!"

The craziest thing was the village man, who opened his mouth and said: "Teacher Han, there is no need to sell it, our fellow villagers will take care of it for you!"

Pan Shaohang swallowed and asked his father quietly: "Dad, can we buy some at home?"

Pan Dajun glanced at the local wealthy group with pity and shook his head at his son.

I would like to join in the fun, but the question is... will it be our turn?

The venue became agitated due to the restlessness of the wealthy Dream City group, and many people were loudly asking about registration matters.

Teacher Han personally operates the fund, just buy it with your eyes closed!

We don’t care whether it’s inferior or inferior!

Some were so impatient that they even stood up from their seats.

Before his rebirth, Han Lie had only heard from his colleagues that some Niubi public fundraising roadshows were as noisy as a wet market.

Now, he saw it with his own eyes.

Not only did he see it, but this scene happened because of him.

A huge sense of accomplishment and satisfaction floods into my mind crazily, making me intoxicated, comfortable and ecstatic.

Han Lie took two deep breaths to calm down his surging emotions. He waved with a smile and called Lan Xin to the podium.

Turning off the microphone, he ordered softly: "Priority will be given to registering for the tycoons in Dream City, but the fund shares will be allocated to them in the end. If it fills up quickly, then each person will be given one or two million as a token... Do you understand what I mean?"

Lan Xin nodded, indicating that she knew what to do.

But she was confused.

what happened?

Are all those coal bosses hired by the boss?

It's not like that... tens of millions of ticket money was actually recorded in the account...

She didn't understand, but was shocked.

Han Lie, on the other hand, waved to the wealthy fellows with a smile on his face, and even nodded slightly and bowed slightly. He kept saying "thank you" and "thank you for your love", and his attitude was extremely friendly and cordial.

Who said our teacher Han is young, frivolous and arrogant?

Look, how humble!

However, Pan Dajun, who had seen through everything long ago, understood...

If you don't want to buy Han Lie's house, do you still want to grab his fund shares?

Go ahead and dream!

Big gold tooth, you have more money, right?

Come on, give us a try on the large flat floor of Dream Garden with a price of RMB 60,000 per square meter!

In the next hour, the sales department employees were extremely busy and quickly registered purchase intentions of 2.8 billion.

Brother Lie glanced at the amount, smiled slightly, and silently crossed out 1.23 billion of it in his heart.

Don't mess around!

These are your house purchase funds. What fund should you buy? !

I disagree!