Extraordinary Genius

"We still wait, it is not appropriate to enter the market for the time being." Fu Rongqi made a decision.

"Why?" Fu Guangzheng was puzzled.

"Because the Thai government has not intervened yet. When the government of Thailand has taken the shot, it will inevitably be a battle for a dragon, a country and a government, there will be no way." Fu Rongqi began to pay the light to impart experience.

"So let's wait now?"

"Yes, wait."

This is more than a month has passed, during which the Thai government has actually intervened, and will drop some exchange rates and pull back. Time has arrived in early May, and Feng Yu has also returned to Xiangjiang. Naturally, Kirilenko has also followed.

"Feng, how long do you have to wait?" Kirilenko's patience is limited. It has been more than a month. They lost hundreds of millions of dollars, and the Thai baht's exchange ratio is only 25:1. They don't make enough money. Lose more. Fortunately, Thailand's stock is still slowly falling, and if their stock index futures are delivered, they can fill most of the 22 deficit.

"When Soros can't help it, he will take the initiative to contact us. We can only suppress the Thai baht with a large-scale sell-off at the same time." Feng Yu is very calm, really like Kirilenko thinks. Simple, the fund that speculates on foreign exchange is more than that.

"But how do you start to smash the Malaysian Ringgit?" Kirilenko couldn't figure out, the currency of a country has not been suppressed, and how to start hunting in other countries' markets, so that funds can be used. ?

"You certainly don't know that the country with the most frequent trade with Thailand is Malaysia. The debt between the two countries is very complicated and complicated. When the Thai economy has serious problems, Malaysia's economy will inevitably be affected."

Why history called this the Asian financial turmoil because the economic models of East Asian countries were similar at the time, and trade with each other was frequent, forming a complete chain.

When a certain link breaks, the entire chain is broken, and these interconnected countries are damaged to some extent, and then it is much easier to suppress.

Kirilenko seemed to understand and nodded. Anyway, he saw that he was losing money every day. If he had a futures contract, he had already asked for a divestment. If there is no Feng Yu, even if Soros invites, Kirilenko will not attack Thailand. The economy of this country looks very good.

How rich is Thailand now? The per capita GDP is more than 3,000 US dollars, which is many times higher than that of China. It seems that there are mature countries in the embryonic form, right?

Surprisingly, Thailand has a debt per capita of more than $1,500, which means that Thailand's overall debt ratio exceeds 50%.

Thailand's economic development is inseparable from the export of foreign capital and domestic manufacturing. Domestic manufacturing exports account for more than 42% of GDP. This is a considerable proportion of the absolute pillar industries.

This ratio is reflected in many countries in the Southeast Asia that rely on the sea. After all, shipping is the most mainstream international transportation method.

The second point is that Thailand's real estate industry is very prosperous and is their second pillar industry. Among them, foreign investment accounts for a large proportion, luxury hotels, office buildings rise from the ground, what holiday villas, golf courses are constantly built.

In Bangkok alone, there are two international conference centers and four international conference centers under construction. The number of hospital beds is more than three times that of actual needs. Real estate speculation has become a shortcut to fast insurance.

But there is a huge hidden danger, that is, the vacancy rate of the house is extremely high, exceeding 20%. In other words, building so many houses is not for living, nor for the need, but for the sake of speculation.

This model is very similar to the economy of the country and the island country in the late 1980s. With real estate and exports as the pillar industries, it will quickly form a false prosperity, a real estate bubble.

It is worth mentioning that in the foreign investment in real estate speculation in Thailand, the island country occupies a large proportion, or that the investment of the island country occupies a large proportion in the whole of Asia.

When the real estate collapsed in the country, the disaster was transferred to the island country, and then the country quickly developed through high-tech, and the real estate has also recovered. But the island's real estate has not recovered, but smart island merchants have also found a good way to copy the illusion of the real estate glory in other countries in Southeast Asia, and then they will make money.

This time they learned, as long as they retreat at the peak of real estate, they can earn a lot of money, and then throw the mess to the government of those countries. In this way, they have earned money and hit other countries' economies, ensuring the status of the island's Asian economic leader.

It is also very interesting. In order to promote the development of the capital market, Thailand's financial liberalization has eliminated the securities transaction tax, reduced the company's dividend tax, and even provided financial support to securities companies.

The interest rate restriction was abolished, interest rates were market-oriented, and the short-term borrowing market developed rapidly. Foreign exchange is open to the outside world, and foreign investors have a foreign exchange limit of 500,000 US dollars, which makes Thailand's foreign exchange reserves seriously insufficient.

Perhaps seeing the benefits of financial development in other countries, Thailand has opened its offshore financial business. 50 commercial banks in Thailand, including 35 foreign banks, have obtained deposits and loans from abroad, and then Eligibility for loans in Thai and foreign foreign currency forms.

This point also makes Soros and Feng Yu easy to borrow from the Thai baht.

Of course, it is also very important that Thailand allows non-residents to open commercial accounts in Thailand, open baht accounts, make deposits and loans, and be freely convertible. Thailand’s capital projects have been basically liberalized.

In this short-term, a large amount of foreign capital inflows will be obtained, which will allow the country's economy to develop rapidly. Can also give this financial crisis a major hidden danger.

For example, they do not implement foreign-funded scale control for financial institutions, and the supervision of financial institutions is simply ineffective. Domestic stocks and bonds are completely open to the outside world, giving international speculators a great opportunity.

Then there is their investment in foreign countries, which is completely unrestricted and even very welcome. It is considered to be a prosperous economy.

Enterprises can borrow from outside and the scale of foreign debt is huge. Their national debt ratio exceeds 50% of GDP, which is a good illustration of the problem. It seems that the development of the enterprise is good, the asset growth is gratifying, but it has not been considered. The money owed to others is actually a loss!

The country that Thailand owes the most foreign debts is the island country. The island country is also the country that has opened the most banks in Thailand and even in East Asia. It has spent its life borrowing abroad because the island countries have a serious excess of funds. The island country’s investment in Thailand exceeded $10 billion earlier.

In fact, even if Soros did not attack Thailand, then the Thai economy is not a thousand years. When the island country withdraws from the real estate and financial industries, it can bring economic collapse to Thailand.

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