Future chat group

Currency is a top priority for a country. The exchange rate control of RMB has always been very strict. Until now, the RMB exchange rate has offshore exchange rate and onshore exchange rate. At 9:15 am every working day, the central bank authorizes China’s foreign exchange transactions. The center announces the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate.

So, at 9:15, the central parity rate is actually the spot onshore exchange rate of RMB. Its daily increase or decrease is limited to 2%. So far, the exchange rate is 6.3816. (The lengthy explanation has been deleted. The protagonist uses offshore exchange rates. It’s good for everyone to know this.)

The onshore exchange rate is the baby in the hands of the central bank. The offshore exchange rate is more market-oriented, but the two interact with each other. If the spot onshore exchange rate announced at 9:15 rises, it means that the central bank wants to depreciate the RMB. The offshore exchange rate is more market-oriented. The margin will also rise accordingly, and you can make money by selling the USD/CNY contract.

What Leo and the others couldn't see most clearly was that the central bank's symmetrical interest rate cuts did not depreciate the RMB, so why should the exchange rate be raised today? This is completely unreasonable. Almost the whole world wants the RMB to appreciate. If China does this, the pressure will not be in vain.

Only Lei Hao knew that this was actually an example of the United States cheating the whole world but not China. He also used several pieces of future information to work backwards and read many analysis reports to finally determine this matter.

Therefore, Lei Hao is very confident. There are still two hours before the central bank announces the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate. What he has to do is to sell the contract of converting US dollars into RMB, then wait for the RMB to depreciate, and then close the position to make a profit.

7:30, trading room.

"6.5135, Lei, each pip of each lot is 10 yuan, you lost two pips, 700,000 yuan." Leo winked, and then saw that the exchange rate jumped a pip, and immediately joked: " Congratulations, you lost 350,000 yuan less."

The foreign exchange market is so awesome, but after conversion, it is actually more than 50,000 US dollars. Compared with the base of more than 58 million, this is a loss of 0.1%.

"Stop talking nonsense, push the order to 58,000 before 8:30." After getting acquainted with Leo, Lei Hao had a little idea of ​​this guy's habits, and he didn't speak politely.

"OK, OK, you are the BOSS, you have the final say." Leo shrugged his shoulders, but never took his eyes off the computer screen, saying: "Now is not a good time to add to the position. I'll take a look."

"Whatever you want, I will see the number of orders when the time comes." Lei Hao said indifferently.

The usual and boring trading work continued like this. Leo followed his experience and vision and placed orders in advance. The trading platform also valued large institutional clients. Obviously, there was a dedicated person in charge, and the transaction was completed very quickly. .

Just like this, the hour hand pointed to the number 8, and then passed a short distance sideways. At around 8:13, Leo piled the number of orders to more than 58,000, and then looked at Lei Hao, his eyes full of smile.

Lei Hao gave a thumbs up and admitted in his heart that Leo was really good. Zhao Lichen could finish a whole night's work in just over an hour. Although there may be market factors, there is indeed a gap in ability.

"So, Lei, can you tell me now, why are you betting on the depreciation of the RMB? Judging from the current situation, it should be a horizontal trend, and there is no big news about appreciation or depreciation." Leo asked.

"What if the dollar depreciates?" Lei Hao asked.

Leo's eyes suddenly opened wide and he expressed strong surprise, "Lei, are you crazy? How can the U.S. dollar depreciate?"

Are there any benefits to devaluation? Stimulating domestic consumption, improving the international competitiveness of domestic products, and expanding employment opportunities and income for disadvantaged groups are all visible benefits. Under the current economic situation, a small depreciation of the national currency will The advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

However, currency exchange rate changes are all a matter of swords and swords, and depreciation and appreciation have their own considerations. There is a problem. If currencies around the world all announce depreciation by the same amount, nothing will change in the foreign exchange market. Because a full devaluation means no depreciation at all, it means that the credibility of the currency has been reduced.

Therefore, the country is a rogue. If they need to devalue their currency, they will yell, "Wait a minute, I will devalue it first, and everyone will give me a drink."

Another very important point is that the value of the U.S. dollar is the credit value of the United States. The U.S. dollar is the most important currency in the world. It rarely devalues ​​deliberately because the gains outweigh the losses and may even trigger an international currency devaluation competition.

Leo simply couldn't imagine how big a turmoil it would be if the dollar devalued, unless... he had to devalue, and there was a legitimate reason to devalue.

"Today is Friday, and it's the first Friday in June." Lei Hao looked at Leo and said while smoking.

"I know, on the first Friday of every month, the United States will announce their non-agricultural employment rate, non-agricultural employment number and unemployment rate for the previous month." Zhao Lichen stayed up all night, but was still working on it The tray room is waiting for the arrival of 9:15.

"If these data are not as good as Wall Street's expectations, the dollar will depreciate," Leolian mentioned a few possibilities, and then said: "However, the expected data given by Wall Street are not high, and the market has digested these expectations."

"Maybe the number is even lower than the low expectations?" Lei Hao said with a smile: "Or maybe China got a taste of it in advance?"

"That must be... Lei, you take it too much for granted." Leo pointed at Lei Hao and said: "If you say that the big consortium knew about it in advance, I still have some belief, but China? Impossible, the United States is most wary of China. .”

Why is the foreign exchange market the most difficult to manipulate? Trading volume is one reason. Another reason is that the exchange rate issue is of great importance. It is not an exaggeration to say that it involves national security, so there are fewer people in this place who can do anything.

The United States can detect in advance that the data is wrong, and the dollar may depreciate, but this news must be tightly concealed. It would be interesting if other countries knew about it, for example, to preemptively strike or something.

In Lei Hao's view, other countries may be aware of it, but they are not as courageous as China, and their exchange rate controls are not as strict as China's. Therefore, we, the Great China, have taken a trick and let you see the United States first.

Anyway, China announces the middle price at 9:15 am on Friday morning. Although the United States also announces it on Friday, due to the time difference, it is already 8:30 pm by then.

One by one, it is probably equivalent to the fact that neither of the two brothers has depreciated. The tragedy is that other countries will have a few economic experts come out and say that your pound and Australian dollar are amazing. There are benefits to disguised appreciation. We are very concerned about it. Very worried, all kinds of hooligan tactics started.

Sino-US cooperation, the two brothers are good, crushing the world.

Lei Hao guessed this, but that was because he had information about the future. Leo, Yu Rong, Qin Yu and others did not have this idea. Seeing that the exchange rate dropped another two points, they were a little nervous.