Future chat group

On Hong Kong Island, the relevant persons in charge of several major institutions also received requests from Thunder Investment for docking channels. After reading the superior documents, they acted in accordance with the regulations.

However, everyone felt a little weird about the sudden addition of Thunder investment.

The so-called inter-agency market is a place that ordinary people cannot access. The funds operating here are huge and the information is different from the secondary market.

For example, if I have collected a large amount of chips and I need to do CDS, I also want to do interest rate swaps, get some bond portfolios, etc. So who should I contact? You must talk to an agency that has corresponding requirements.

You need to short 100 million chips, and I must hold a short position of 100 million to hedge the risk, so come on, let's talk about the contract terms, and then we can complete the transaction.

Since the business scope of large institutions is spread all over the world, their systems operate 24 hours a day, and relevant personnel are busy with calls and emails, and various quotations and transaction intentions are emerging one after another.

Lei Hao wants Nick and others to help connect channels. What does he want? What I want is to be able to hear these sounds. What is the price of the underlying coupon? What are the terms of the contract? How many chips are available for trading?

As long as the corresponding channels are connected, Lei Hao can know this information, plus the qualifications for entry transactions and the variables of future information, and profit margins will appear.

In Thunder Investment, there are not many people with this kind of experience. Although the structure established by Su Yiwen is aimed at this, everyone in the company is still in a hurry when they suddenly come into contact with these things. Who should they give the information to? What news should be given? What message can be recorded but not delivered? All need to be learned.

Lei Hao also anticipated this situation. It just so happens that the current securities market is not very open, that is, it is in the gestation period. Everyone still has time to become familiar with and learn these things.

The whole night passed, and there was no movement at Thunder Investment. Lei Hao led a group of people in the conference room, looking through documents and analyzing the information sent by various institutions and scattered large-scale transaction intentions.

Lei Hao couldn't figure out the issue of interest rates. What he knew was that Greece would hold a referendum on whether to accept EU conditions, and there was a de facto default on the 1st, so a very simple conclusion came out.

The possibility of Greek government bankruptcy increases, the probability of debt default increases, the probability of Brexit increases, CDS will rise, global, especially European securities markets will fall, the euro will depreciate, gold prices will rise...a series of chain reactions will definitely occur.

Lei Hao doesn't know the result of the referendum yet, but he has been studying at the elite level for half a year, and he can analyze that this old Greek is bluffing, and the relevant long and short positions have been established by large institutions for a long time.

"Profits only exist in time difference and probability. The final result is likely to be a compromise between the two parties, but before the compromise, these things will have a considerable impact on the market."

Looking through the documents in his hand, Lei Hao thought silently in his heart: "Almost all large institutions feel that the result has been determined, but launching a referendum and de facto breach of contract will increase variables. For example, the original possibility of getting the result is 90%. If something like this happens, After these two things, the possibility drops to 80% or 70%, and the price space created by the two variables is profit."

"It's just that there will definitely be a follow-up to this matter. How should I control my position? If I don't wait for the corresponding future information, do I have to ensure my ability to exit the market quickly? Where is the person who will take over?"

"The CDS held by Goldman Sachs... is really enviable."

More than ten years ago, Goldman Sachs helped prepare the accounts for Greece's entry into the European Union. However, after Goldman Sachs made money, he felt that the crisis would break out sooner or later, so he began to make plans and bet against CDS with major institutions. Until now, they have The securities held have already seen huge profit margins.

Lei Hao envied this kind of operation, but he also knew himself. Now Thunder Investment wants to compete with large institutions and then plan for more than ten years? Just kidding.

Therefore, while others make a big profit, you can just make some "small money" during the time when the incident occurred.

"Lei, the BP is too high. I personally suggest that we don't do CDS." Leo frowned after reading a lot of documents. His words also attracted the attention of others.

"I want to try it." Lei Hao replied calmly.

It is already the morning of the 26th, and it should be early morning in Europe, so they are still asleep.

The BP of CDS is also easy to understand. To understand it in the simplest and crudest way, BP is the cost of default probability for CDS.

For example, if there are 100 million bonds and the probability of default is 10%, BP is 1,000. In other words, one BP corresponds to a probability of one in ten thousand.

For a 100 million bond with a default probability of 10%, if you want to buy a CDS, you have to pay 10 million. Then when it defaults, you get 100 million and earn ten times. If its default probability rises to 20%, then you find The person who takes over can earn 10 million, or...if you think 9.99 million is acceptable, just earn that amount.

This is actually the same as stocks. If you buy at a low price, the increased probability will cause the price to rise, and you will sell at a high price.

What Lei Hao seeks is the profit when the probability of default increases.

Knowing some information in advance, Lei Hao and other market participants have different perceptions. Betting is everywhere, including futures, and everyone can participate in it.

But Leo and others also belong to the concept of "other market participants", and they don't think there is any profit margin here.

List? It has already been bought out.

market? Various variables arising from the debt crisis have long been expressed through the prices of underlying securities, leaving little room for manipulation.

"Lei, a de facto default is indeed possible, but it does not rule out that Greece will accept the conditions given by the EU. If they receive funds to repay maturing loans, the securities market will rise and the euro will appreciate back..." Leo continued to analyze. .

"I think he's going to default on his debt. Leo, are you interested in taking another gamble?" Lei Hao looked at Leo with a smile.

The atmosphere in the conference room became much more relaxed. The bet between Lei Hao and Leo was gossip among these people after dinner. They all knew about it and found it quite interesting.

"It's not fair, your opinion, the probability of realization is more than 50%." Leo shrugged.

"So, we are on the same side." Lei Hao blinked and said with a smile: "We were on the side of small probability in the past few times. Now, our probability of winning is close to 70%. What are you worried about?"

"Even if there is a de facto default, Greece and the EU will eventually compromise. This can be seen from the BP value." Xia Yibei interjected, saying: "We need to pay attention to our positions, and the entry price is high and the exit price is low. Something that could very well have happened.”

"It's okay. As long as the profits are enough, those big institutions will definitely be able to find a matchmaker." Lei Hao was not too worried about this problem.

All large institutions will try to reduce their exposure and only do matching. They hold large orders and do transactions with small institutions. They go long here and short there. They match both sides. The spread is profit, so as long as Lei Hao gives The price is right, and with so many financial institutions around the world, the demand will definitely satisfy Lei’s investment appetite.

At 8 a.m. on Monday the 26th, another trading day begins.