Future chat group

Talk now? Lei Hao sat down without speaking, lost in thought.

After two changes, the company's investment now has a considerable book profit. With the current profit margin, it is acceptable to get the originally requested contract.

But is this enough? What changes will happen in the market outlook?

"The referendum must pass." Lei Hao said tentatively, and saw a depressed expression flash across the faces of Nick and others. He knew that his analysis was correct.

The current situation in Greece is that the people are unwilling to continue to cut benefits, but there are also some people who would rather cut benefits than to bankrupt the country's credit. Therefore, the result of the referendum is conceivable. It is very likely to pass, but the proportion of people who support and oppose it is also quite large. important.

"Our internal analysis believes that there will be approximately 60% of the negative votes. In other words, 60% of the people who voted are unwilling to accept the conditions given by the EU." Nick did not hide anything, and said magnanimously. : “However, this does not mean that these 60% support Greece’s declaration of bankruptcy.”

"The Greeks played a trick," John from Standard Chartered said with a wry smile. "The option they gave was whether to accept the plan given by the EU, not whether to go bankrupt or leave the EU."

"So, the result of the referendum can be predicted." David from HSBC said: "For the market, what is more important is the proportion of votes. If there are too many negative votes, it means that the risk of bankruptcy and Brexit will increase."

"The current variable given by Prudential is a bankruptcy probability of 20%, a negative vote prediction is close to but less than 60%, and the probability of Brexit is very low, but the possibility has emerged." Feng Ruoting's eyes flickered, with a hint of charm in her smile.

Lei Hao had no reaction. He had always been an ambitious person. When he was an account manager, he wanted to be a project sponsor. When he founded Thunder Investment and had future information, he wanted more.

"In other words, the best time for me to clear out my inventory is now?" Lei Hao smiled, looking past these people, and all he got were seemingly sincere nods.

Nick and others really felt that Lei Hao should close the position. In two days, the profit of 30 million US dollars was a bullish figure globally, which was enough for Lei Hao's investment to establish its banner in the early stage.

Lei Hao was a little hesitant. He didn't know the specific figures of the referendum, but he knew that Greece had a de facto default. However, the market had already digested the variable of de facto default. Now the closest profit margin appears in the referendum results.

55% to 60%, the market fluctuations will not be violent, and above 60%, every percentage point will make Thunder Investment profitable.

But again, Lei Hao didn't know the specific results of the referendum!

"Before the referendum results come out, we can help Thunder Investment complete the liquidation work." Nick seems to have the highest status among the four people, and he is always the first to contact Lei Hao.

The other three people didn't have much opinion. They knew very well that Nick and Lei Hao had more in common because they were both leaders in the investment field.

"I don't want to close the position." Lei Hao breathed a sigh of relief, let go of the hesitation in his heart, raised his head, his eyes seemed to be shining, and repeated: "I don't want to close the position now!"

"Lei? Your position is too high. If you close the position one day later, it means there is a possibility of bearing more closing costs." Nick really kindly reminded this time, saying: "We can now give Lei Investment the treatment of an A-level institution. , but if all the variables disappear, then many times, you can’t enjoy this order.”

"Believeme, I mean it." Nick really wanted to make friends with Lei Hao now, and his words were full of sincerity.

There are also biological chains in the financial circle, and the treatment given by large institutions is also different. Thunder Investment does not get A-level treatment, but Lei Hao's situation is a bit different this time, and Nick and others also spoke out.

"I feel that this matter will not end like this. Greece will actually default, and the opposition vote...should not be only 60%." Lei Hao looked directly at Nick and spoke firmly.

This time, Lei Hao rarely followed his intuition. He actually did not know the results of the referendum. The result analyzed from the data was indeed close to 60%, but Lei Hao felt that it was not just that.

"Even if I guess wrong, or even if the referendum fails, I will just give back the money I earned. If the numbers are really what the analysis results say, I will only need to consume more costs."

Lei Hao seemed to be talking to himself or comforting himself. His tone gradually changed from straightforward to firm: "But if the number is higher than 60%, I will receive more goods."

"But the probability is lower. Calculating it, it's still the same situation. The greater the risk, the higher the return. There is a 10% chance of turning one million into ten million, and there is a 90% chance of losing one hundred thousand." Nick simply said replied.

"I don't think the risk is as high as you said." Lei Hao shook his head, unable to catch the flash of inspiration in his heart.

The analysis of large institutions and the reaction of the market fully reflected the existing variables, but something was wrong, but Lei Hao could not catch the naughty entry point.

"I reserve my opinion." Nick smiled, and then said: "So, can we talk about our cooperation now?"

"Wait a minute, I still have something I can't figure out." Lei Hao also opened his mouth and said: "I think Thunder Investment may be able to get better treatment, for example... improve the treatment of our organization or something like that. "

"This is impossible, the scale of Thunder Investment is too small." This time it was HSBC David who spoke. He looked at Su Yiwen and said: "Even with Su here, Thunder Investment will not receive higher institutional treatment. "

"Unless the EU pulls Greece to die together! Haha." Feng Ruoting joked next to her.

There was a click in Lei Hao's mind, and he finally found the naughty entry point.

Still future information, those two future information.

"The actual breach of contract has been caused. You don't need to look at the results of the referendum to know that the old villain will definitely still be the same old villain..."

"If I were a creditor and pushed Greece to leave the European Union, hell, I would die together."

There seems to be nothing wrong with these two pieces of information. They just reveal the variables that Lei Hao has now used up, but they give Lei Hao inspiration.

The second message contains swear words. More importantly, the person who said this is a member of Xia Yibei's team at Yangcheng Head Office who has always been steady and polite. To be able to make such an honest person use swear words, it seems that the situation seems to be There are some changes.

For Lei Hao, the more intense the development process, the better, because it means that the risk is being pushed up, and the more profits he will make, so... Come on, Lao Lai.

"Is this where the feeling comes from?" Lei Hao smiled bitterly in his heart. This was the first time that he invested based on feelings instead of accurate predictions of data and future information, so it was inevitable that he would be a little conceited.

What should I do if I guess wrong? Just as this thought flashed through Lei Hao's mind, another thing came to mind.

No, the variables implicit in this information should also be included and the two sides should be hedged. In fact, there is not much difference between closing a position and exiting a position and holding a wait-and-see position.

Since there's not much difference, then... why not take a gamble? The belief in Lei Hao's eyes gradually became firmer.