Future chat group

Early in the morning on Tuesday, November 8th, Lei Hao, accompanied by Qin Yu, came to Qingyu Futures Company and met the members of the investment team assigned to him for the first time.

Xiao Peijie, thirty-seven years old, is a fund manager. To be precise, he is a new fund manager. As a newcomer, he has no objection to Lei Hao being the emperor.

Chen Xizhi, 38 years old, is a senior investment consultant. He received his bachelor's degree from Agricultural University, his master's degree in finance, and his doctorate in agricultural product futures research, and has published some papers.

Pan Zhengchao, thirty-one years old, is a trader. In the financial circle, his thirtieth year is the golden age for traders.

There are several other team members, but most of them are responsible for less important tasks and are almost all assistants. Lei Hao just remembered their names, which was already a great honor.

When Xiao Peijie and others saw Lei Hao, their eyes flashed with inquiry. After a day of fermentation, they all knew that Lei Hao had received a lot of money from Qing Yu, and that this matter was decided by CEO Qin Yu. down.

"Everyone knows that since the research department noticed that cotton futures has investment prospects, it has been tracking and analyzing the target for two months. Everyone here is the elite selected by the company. As for Mr. Lei..." Qin Yu Someone picked up the conversation next to him.

When talking about Lei Hao, Qin Yu showed a bright smile: "Mr. Lei's achievements this year are the best in China. Even if he is placed in the history of world finance, he can still get a place. We have reason to believe that the future of the project team is bright. of."

"No matter what you need, whether it is analysis reports, position data of other companies, traders' status, possible changes in policies, or even more funds and more manpower, Qingyu Investment can provide it." Qin Yu continued.

"Bah bang bang..." Xiao Peijie and others began to applaud. Qin Yu's words gave them reassurance. If Lei Hao has abilities comparable to his reputation, this investment will definitely have a bright future.

"I am Lei Hao. In the next period of time, we will have frequent contact. I hope that everyone can work together to create profits for the project and gain more benefits for myself." Lei Hao stood on the rostrum. During this period, His experience allowed him to remain confident even when facing this group of people who can be called the elites in the industry.

"Next, I want to know your views and suggestions on the market." Lei Haoyi said briefly and then turned his attention to Xiao Peijie and Chen Xizhi.

Lei Hao Investment has not tried to do medium and long-term business for the time being. In fact, Lei Hao is also the first time for a young lady to sit in a sedan chair, but the investment field is always changing. If you have any questions, just go to the fund manager and investment consultant. These two people control the company's financial support. resources and team performance.

"Let me talk about it first." Chen Xizhi stood up first, took out a stack of documents, distributed them to everyone present, and said: "Since the year before last, the price of cotton has dropped significantly, which has led many textile companies to start hedging. Preserve value.”

"But in the second half of the year, cotton prices picked up, but we found an interesting place, look here..."

"Positions increased from 200,000 to 300,000 lots, hedging positions increased from tens of thousands to 110,000 lots, and 33% were hedging positions. In other words, the speculative nature of the market seems to have declined."

"In fact, this is not the case. According to the investigation, we found that the hedging positions of textile companies are all highly leveraged. Their margin ratio is between 10% and 20%, and most of them are more than ten percent. In other words, if the cotton If futures prices rise, they will be forced to liquidate their positions, which means... stampede!"

There was a faint sound of breathing in the conference room. The stampede in the securities market is a very scary thing. For example, if a short position is liquidated, how to force the liquidation? It is necessary to go long in the opposite direction to close the position, which gives the underlying security more upward momentum, and a vicious circle is created.

Lei Hao also understood what Chen Xizhi meant. As long as the futures price was pushed to a certain point, there would be no pressure for long positions to be closed, and profits would appear.

10% off the price? Enlarging the leverage means a gain of about 50% to 100% in half a year or a year, which... the smell of blood is very strong.

Chen Xizhi stopped after telling this. Everyone in the conference room began to look through the documents, looking at the data in it, and sketching out possible market changes in their minds.

This is an objective analysis. Next, Xiao Peijie’s speech starts from the subjective wishes of market participants.

"From a policy perspective, cotton prices have fallen and cotton planting area has decreased. The textile and garment industry accounts for about 13% of my country's export trade and about 12% of employment. Cotton is also a strategic reserve material..."

"Taking all factors into consideration, we believe that the state at least has a tacit attitude toward rising cotton prices and promoting better development of cotton cultivation."

"Wherever there is profit, there will be funds to promote it. Most of my country's agricultural product futures are based on the three months of 1593 as the main contract. This year, the price of cotton 09 has slightly increased. There is a bumper cotton harvest. It is expected that warehouse receipts may increase. The mainstream market generally believes that Cotton prices will fall in the future, and textile companies will be more willing to do hedging, but..."

"We can see that the open interest in cotton futures contracts for January next year is increasing, and the price... is rising slightly!"

"Traders have shown signs of hoarding goods and entering the futures market. Futures companies are increasing their positions. Instead of continuing to wait and see, funds have begun to accelerate inflow. The increase in trading volume also represents more frequent participation of both long and short parties."

"To sum up, we believe that the price of cotton futures contracts will rise, or in other words, the probability of it rising is higher than the probability of falling."

People in the financial circle see things differently from those in the industry. Textile companies think that cotton prices will fall due to a bumper cotton harvest, but people in the financial circle analyze from various clues that prices are more likely to rise. This is a bit interesting.

Is it the financial circle that teaches textile companies how to behave, or is it that textile companies educate these financial giants in turn?

In fact, Lei Hao also knew that someone was shorting here, and that there was even more room to fall than to rise. However, judging from these analysis reports and observing from a longer time span, there is a high probability that the price of cotton futures will rise. rise.

There was another moment of silence in the conference room. After Chen Xizhi and Xiao Peijie finished speaking, it was completely Lei Hao's time.

In everyone's opinion, when the project team was just established, Lei Hao must have made some prospects and poured some chicken soup. Everyone returned to their jobs, and then analyzed it for a period of time before choosing the time to enter the market layout.

Lei Hao originally planned this, but he changed his plan last night. According to his instructions, Thunder Investment has begun to build a position in the cotton futures contract in January next year. As for the new project...

"Let's first buy some futures contracts for May next year, a thousand lots," Lei Hao said.

The meeting room suddenly became audible.