Future chat group

When the game started, everyone stood together and looked at the situation on the court below. Business time turned into entertainment time.

On the court, the home team Knicks, who were already trailing 3-0, unexpectedly beat the Bulls and let go of their psychological baggage. They played perfectly, making whatever shots they wanted, and directly blindsided their opponents.

At the end of the first quarter, the 15-point lead made the home fans feel very satisfied. At the beginning of the second quarter, the score ruthlessly expanded to 25 points. The Bulls have many veterans and they are standard championships. They are fighting against their opponents at the end of the regular season. Competing for first place, after weighing the pros and cons, they actually did not send in the main force after the substitute time was over.

During the intermission, Lei Hao chatted with this group of people for a while. The focus was to test each other's attitudes towards the market with Keith. In many places, the two brushes of Oasis Securities still work. Their operations follow the prompts of future information. There should be some benefits.

But when it comes to interest rates and exchange rates, Lei Hao has indeed found a breakthrough. He is bullish, while Oasis Securities is bearish.

If there are no special circumstances, Oasis Securities will not invest too much in these two places. Counting the right places, they can still be in a state of positive returns.

"When we use interest rates to make forward agreements, our opponents must ensure risk control. For futures, stock markets, etc., everyone may have the same opinion. According to Oasis's situation, how much principal will they sign?" Lei Hao silently calculated in his mind. Down.

Calculating based on the profit and loss margin of 10 million US dollars, assuming that the interest rate is 0.75%, the expected change range is 0.05%, and the term is half a year, how much principal is required to achieve a profit and loss of 10 million US dollars? Divide 10 million by 0.025% to get the answer, which is $40 billion.

Yes, the numbers reported by the industry to laypeople are often fictitious. Even though the principal of 40 billion is large, it is illusory and does not exist. What everyone is betting on is the change in interest.

40 billion is calculated based on the annual interest of 0.75%, which is 300 million, and the half-year interest is 150 million. If the interest is 0.8%, the annual interest is 320 million, and the half-year interest is 160 million. The difference is exactly 10 million.

There is another issue that needs to be considered. The contract interest rate and reference interest rate are set, as well as the transaction date, settlement date, confirmation date, and maturity date.

Lei Hao wanted to use the recent time as the confirmation date, that is, to determine the reference interest rate in a short period of time, and then... the longer the expiration date, the better, and the settlement date as close as possible to the confirmation date, the better. These series of things are all amplified risks. .

Thinking with his toes, Lei Hao knew that Oasis Securities would not agree to these things. Keith just wanted to fight once, and his chips were not enough for him to bet all his wealth.

"Lei, are you a Bulls fan?" Seeing Lei Hao looking at the court in deep thought, Baker, who was sitting next to him, smiled and said, "Yes, as far as I know, your wife is a graduate of Chicago Booth School of Business. , you should prefer Windy City."

"It looks like the Windy City is in a downward trend today." Lambert learned to use financial terms to joke about the situation on the court.

"I support the Big Apple City." Thinking of the future information, Lei Hao smiled and said: "If I were to open the market, I think I would give the Chicagoans a 100 times winning level."

"Wow, Ray, I agree with the first half of your point, but you probably have never bet on football. The 100 water level is not something that the NBA can have." Lambert seemed to be a fan and joked with a smile.

"If you dare to raise the probability of 100 times, I don't mind giving a little support to the people of Chicago." Keith sat not far away, raised his glass, and said with a smile: "Remember me $10,000."

"I don't do anything illegal." Lei Hao said with a smile, but he felt happy in his heart and said, "I don't want to be targeted by the US tax authorities for the flow of millions of dollars."

"I see your cowardice." Keith shrugged there.

The so-called 100 times odds was a joke. Everyone just thought that Keith was attacking Lei Hao because of his language skills. They didn't take it seriously and just sat and watched the show.

Lei Hao is also very clear. What he knows even more is that Chicago will win this game. Before coming to watch the game, Lei Hao was still thinking about whether it was possible to show his fan style, and he had already bought 1 million US dollars to bet on Chicago. win.

But now, Lei Hao wants to lose money to Keith, lose the money on his account, and transfer the money to other places, such as...

"Of course $10,000 doesn't matter. If it's $1 million, I can accept it to be reflected in the forward contract to be discussed." Lei Hao pretended to be irritated and said.

"Lei, are you serious?" Several people were a little dumbfounded, but thinking about the series of things Lei Hao did after arriving in the United States and his age, they all shook their heads and laughed in their hearts.

The normal odds are about 20 times. For people in the financial circle, there is a 5% probability of winning, but they can get 100 times the profit. It is simply unreasonable not to invest some money.

"Okay, Ray, let's make a gentleman's agreement. I'll bet 10,000." Keith said with a smile.

"Can I participate?" Eden interjected from the side.

"Mr. Eden, do you want to sign a forward agreement with Forest?" Lei Hao said with a half-smile.

"So, I can't participate." District Councilman Eden shrugged his shoulders, looking helpless, but he also said: "The probability is too low, I don't feel pity."

"Haha, Eden, you are wrong. I bet 10,000 Chicagoans to win with Ray, and then I went to regular channels to bet 200,000 Big Apple City Hard. This means that I got a probability event of 80 times the profit for nothing. This is a real life event. A way of technological arbitrage." Keith looked very proud.

Lei Hao's face also became "ugly", and he said in a cold tone: "But the benefits you have received that may be realized, our forward agreement has not yet begun."

"No, Ray, you and I both know that from the conversation just now, you are bullish on interest rates and I am bearish on interest rates. We will definitely reach an agreement." Keith looked confident.

"One million US dollars is nothing to me. A loss of 200,000 US dollars will make you feel bad." Lei Hao used his status as a rich man to suppress others.

"I can adjust the ratio at will, and the arbitrage range is right there, don't you think so?" Keith said.

"I accept your bet." Lei Hao's wealthy style was unabashed, he sat there and said calmly.

Huayin landed, and there were several cheers and whistles in the box. The group of people also reacted again: Although Lei Hao is new here, he is rich, and his net worth should be around 2 billion US dollars. This is not a cat or a dog.

"Although a little younger."

"Young people have the right to make mistakes."

Everyone teased each other, and their opinions about Lei Hao emerged in their hearts, but no one noticed the little assistant Li Yingfeng beside Lei Hao.

"What are you doing, senior brother?" Li Yingfeng was a little confused when he thought of the lottery ticket voucher that Lei Hao had asked him to buy.