Future chat group

"The offshore exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the RMB is 6.6085." The U.S. dollar exchange rate has risen, and other currencies have correspondingly depreciated as a hedge.

"The price of gold in New York is 1284.5." As the U.S. dollar appreciates, more gold can be purchased with the same U.S. dollar. Likewise: "The price of crude oil futures in New York is 48.81."

The U.S. dollar index jumped once, to a figure of 96.1305, coupled with expectations of interest rate hikes and improving economic data, making market participants begin to look forward to the day when the dollar index will exceed 100.

"YES!" Lei Hao breathed a sigh of relief. Insufficient information prevented him from participating in more and higher-level games. However, it is obvious that the results of the collision between the Federal Reserve and major institutions were revealed after the erosion of economic data and market changes. Next, the answer they uncovered favors dollar appreciation.

"YES!" Professor Frank is also optimistic about the Fed's push to raise interest rate expectations, but what he values ​​​​more is that some of the economic data released today are completely within the narrow range defined by Lei Hao, which he has verified through various channels. , which further demonstrates the correctness of the data.

"Lei, are we sure we want to increase our position at this time?" Leo's internal call confirmed the matter again.

Originally, positions were to be cleared before the Fed meeting to discuss interest rates. Later, Lei Hao changed the position and started to withdraw after the Fed meeting to discuss interest rates. That is to say, he started to sort out his chips today on the 16th. By tomorrow, the high position on the 17th would reach the maximum speed of withdrawal, but in the end he Changing the position from clearing to adding, these are two completely different things.

"The book profit is there. We still have room for operation with our funds, and we don't have to worry too much about the risk of liquidation. Why not add more?" Lei Hao looked at the company's data beating and knew that Leo was asking while promoting the work. I feel like explaining.

Having book profits and not having book profits are two different ways of operating. Having a credit line given by a large institution and not having a credit line given by a big institution are also two different fund operation plans.

Now that Lei Hao has both, there is no risk of liquidation. Besides... when the market volume can be released, it is a good time to advance or retreat.

"OK, you have the final say." Leo shouted enthusiastically on the phone. As a routine, he would ask if there was any intention to stop when the market really changed.

Today, Forest and the Thunder are qualified to participate in more in-depth markets, such as the standard futures market, where leverage of 20 to 30 times is considered to be the highest. Therefore, the operations of the Thunder and LEI are more systematic participation in the inter-agency market and over-the-counter agreements. .

Taking the U.S. dollar index as an example, 96.1305 minus 95.7326 equals 0.3979, an increase of 0.4%. The current price of New York crude oil is 48.81. Excluding factors other than the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, its original price should be 49.01 U.S. dollars.

However, the price of oil before the appreciation of the US dollar was 48.93. In other words, the appreciation of the US dollar should have suppressed the price of oil by 0.4%, but it only caused a decrease of close to 0.25%. The other 0.15% was caused by other factors, which is a kind of The variable that has a 37.5% impact on the appreciation of the US dollar is positive.

What Lei Hao also knows is that after this, the impact of the appreciation of the US dollar will continue to deepen, maybe 70%, 80%, 90% or even more than 100% of the linkage effect. You can get some data by doing a calculation.

If Lei Hao holds all oil contracts, the change in the US dollar index will have a 62.5% impact. If his cash and quota add up to 400 million, and the leverage is 100 times, the face value of the contract will be 40 billion, an increase of 0.4%, which is 160 million. , multiplied by the coefficient 62.5%, it is exactly 100 million book profits.

The problem is that contracts are systematic and positions are structural. When the market is improving and LEI and Thunder trade positions at cost, this linkage cannot achieve a high coefficient. In other words, in fact, Lei Hao The total contract value in hand is 35 billion, and the linkage factor is about 50%, which means that the overall book profit is 70 million US dollars.

And everyone in the financial industry knows that book profits are not profits. If you withdraw at a good pace and at a good time, you can get more actual profits than the current book figures. However, there are too many positions now. No matter how good your pace is, it will be difficult for you to stay in a high position. To complete the collective clearance, structure will always be the mainstream.

The people at Forest felt that it was very risky to spread the position of opening positions here. However, under Lei Hao's command, everyone still had no time to hesitate and slowly invested the funds.

Thanks to the sufficient release of market volume, the remaining positions were relatively easy to construct. After finding appropriate counterparties, everyone quickly started trading.

Taking into account various factors, the company's funds and expected profits have an accurate position line. Lei Hao took his time, but the market was full of undercurrents, and the sparks of the collision of large funds splashed into the regional market. , the waves created are enough to drown small organizations.

What Frank is researching is enough to set off several rounds of collisions. He is a consultant to Morgan Stanley. He is also a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He has the ability to leverage the North American financial market, especially ...when his numbers are right.

"Lei, my Chinese friend, we have come to a conclusion, and I will send it to you immediately." It was not until the evening of the 16th that a signal came from Frank: "We have verified the data you provided, and we have concluded The conclusion is as you wish, yes, if other variables are stable and these numbers are determined, the dollar should have an upward channel..."

When Lei Hao received the call from Old Frank, he was a little nervous. He was not 100% sure whether he could allow the variables to accumulate and explode at a certain point in time, but things were obviously developing smoothly now.

"So?" Forest's position has been constructed, and Lei Hao hopes to hear the appropriate words from the professor's mouth.

"We can release this information and leverage the operation of the market. If there is change, there will be profits. Believe me, many institutions are willing to take action." There was a hint of helplessness in Old Frank's tone. It was obvious that he had also seen a fragment of the future: "I I don’t know if I’m doing the right thing, I’m providing you with arguments, but you and I both know very well that we are making the market more volatile, remember, it’s volatility, not upside! Upside is only the first half.”

"UCB's theory is to let the market resolve these fluctuations on its own, isn't it?" Lei Hao stood up and hit the professor's G-spot with his words, "Isn't the Chicago School of Economics liberalization? The market will always fluctuate, and you have the ability to adjust from it. Those who make profits from these fluctuations are obviously correcting the market's mistakes, and neither you nor I are wrong, professor."

"Yes, none of us made mistakes." Frank said with a smile.

The financial market is very sensitive to numbers. As a well-known scholar, Professor Frank certainly knows what he is doing. He is providing capitalists like Lei Hao with theoretical basis for leveraging the market, and it is a real and effective basis.

But the market is interconnected. With Professor Frank's ability, he can certainly see what is hidden behind the data.

These things are real, but when he retrieved and investigated these numbers, he also analyzed the market outlook, that is... at this moment, the market will definitely over-interpret these numbers, and the bulls will not give up, and eventually lead to The trend is an inverted V shape.

Capital wants to eat meat. People like Lei Hao will definitely force some high-leverage small funds to death. What they earn is other people's money. A back-and-forth strangulation means a lot of profits. Capitalists must have this tacit understanding.

"This is a game of beating drums and passing flowers." Lei Hao looked at the beating data on the computer screen, feeling neither sad nor happy. Even if he had information about the future, he might be strangled by others. Now that he has entered the financial circle, since he has done so When operating with high leverage, don’t blame the market.