Future chat group

Anyone with a little knowledge of finance knows that the RMB has two exchange rates, one is the onshore exchange rate and the other is the offshore exchange rate. In the foreign exchange market, the daily average trading volume of the RMB is about US$300 billion.

Among these 300 billion, the average daily trading volume of the offshore market is about 240 billion, and this 240 billion also has a name.

There are currently offshore RMB trading centers around the world. How did the 240 billion come from? First, you buy a RMB futures contract on Hong Kong Island with a face value of US$100,000 and a leverage of up to 80 times. That is to say, you can buy a contract with US$1,250 or a minimum of 8,000 RMB to open an account. This is the amount of 100,000 US dollars. able.

In other words, with an actual amount of about US$3 billion, a transaction volume of 240 billion can be achieved.

According to the current offshore exchange rate, 3 billion U.S. dollars is just over 20 billion yuan.

However, sometimes, hedging between institutions does not occur in offshore RMB trading centers, but is done on large institutional platforms through CFD, CMS and other methods. Institutions or hedgers do it out of risk control or to earn price differences. For purposes such as arbitrage, directly hold positions on both sides and enter the bilateral market.

For example, Lei Hao conducts CFD operations through the HSBC channel based on the exchange rate of 6.7100 US dollars to RMB. He is optimistic about the depreciation of the RMB. The lending rate is 3.65%, which is one ten thousandth per day. If someone hedges with him, if the exchange rate reaches 6.7114 or above, the decline will be more than ten thousand. One percent, even if Lei Hao makes money, he can even buy RMB futures instead of closing the CFD, close the position, and then... the handling fee is 8 yuan per contract, and he loses 8 yuan.

From the perspective of onshore and offshore methods, the onshore RMB is more valuable than the offshore RMB. The onshore exchange rate is controlled by the central bank, which is almost a state of affairs. No matter how fierce the offshore speculation is, once the onshore exchange rate is stabilized, two things will happen. There are two states, one is that the central bank uses foreign exchange reserves to smooth out the spread between the offshore exchange rate and the onshore exchange rate, and the other is that the distance between the two is widened.

No matter which situation occurs, it is a situation that China does not want to see when it implements financial marketization.

Therefore, international speculators have seized the opportunity to suppress the RMB exchange rate very well. They even say that capital that is optimistic about the strength of the US dollar is shorting other currencies besides the US dollar.

Take shorting the RMB as an example, including foreign exchange margin trading platforms that are not recognized by China. You can collect chips to suppress the RMB exchange rate through various channels. Under the influence of linkage, there is no need to enter the market directly. The platform will be on both the trading center and its own platform. Take the contract and earn the price difference.

Many platforms and channels have been extended in this way, eventually forming an operation to suppress the exchange rate. The Hong Kong Thunder and LEI are currently doing this.

"The appreciation of the U.S. dollar, if the internal and external conditions remain unchanged, is equivalent to the depreciation of other currencies. This is something everyone knows, but the foreign exchange market is very complicated. Where do you think the RMB exchange rate will go? 6.8? 6.9? Or... break 7?"

Yangcheng, Thunder Investment, in a conference room, the picture on the screen wall is composed of eight small screens. The small screens also show the situation of each conference room, including LEI, Hong Kong Thunder, HSBC, Keda, Standard Chartered, Qingyu , Hanlon and Prudential.

Including Lei Hao’s investment headquarters in Yangcheng, there are many people sitting in every conference room. Managers of currency investment funds, scholars from the research and analysis department, and institutional executives in charge of this field. Everyone is waiting to hear what Lei Hao has to say. analysis.

Lei Hao was holding documents in his hand. Between him and the screen wall were several executives from Yangcheng Thunder Investment. Now... he needed to convince several financial institutions that he had always had cooperative relationships to enter.

The international market's assessment of the status of the RMB is not very high, due to both traditional constraints and concerns about China's strong financial control.

Therefore, even though China is the world's second largest economy, its currency status does not have a corresponding status. A simple example is that RMB settlement business is not so recognized.

There are difficulties, but they have already been reflected in the RMB exchange rate. Each variable has already had its influencing factors. What Lei Hao needs to do is to make everyone believe that with everyone's participation, this operation will be profitable. .

Finance, finance, how can we finance without funds? The funds that Lei Hao can use in the RMB exchange rate market are about three billion U.S. dollars, which seems to be a lot. The credit lines given by institutions such as HSBC and Keda are enough for Lei Hao to use the money for operations.

It is quite reliable to hold a 300 billion contract with 3 billion, but this money is not enough. Even if Lei Hao does not look at the future information, he knows that his opponents can exceed this number just by maneuvering the quota.

Moreover, in such a big battle, extreme operations can easily cause trouble. If you are seen to be about to liquidate your position, the possibility of a rebound from guys like HSBC and Keda is almost 100%.

Therefore, Lei Hao only has about 10 billion U.S. dollars in chips now, which is three times the leverage.

What's more amazing is why the four guys HSBC, Ketak, Standard Chartered, and Prudential came to listen to Lei Hao's market analysis like primary school students. It's because Lei Hao only used about 400 million U.S. dollars to stabilize his 10 billion chips. The liquidity of more than 2 billion yuan, plus the original chips held by more than 10 to 2 billion customer funds that cannot be moved much, are all short-term.

Among them, for the fast-moving operation of more than 2 billion, Lei Hao used the channels of four institutions this time. Without any attempt to hide it, he quickly invested in various currency markets and plundered profits around the clock.

Under the premise of huge pressure for the appreciation of the US dollar, the global foreign exchange market is also subject to frequent fluctuations. Hong Kong Thunder and LEI have reaped profits again and again, gathering sand into towers, and the money gained is at least 20 to 30 million US dollars per day.

This is very scary, because this is pure profit. Even large institutions like Keda and HSBC are greedy for it. Their daily income is several times this number, but a lot of it belongs to customers, and even more to channels. The profit, investment...it just depends on who you compare with.

Compared with ordinary organizations, it is of course only half the best. Compared with Lei Hao... everyone said that if they could compare, they would not come to the meeting.

"Lei, you should know that this time, you have no chance of winning. Looking back at all cases in financial history, basically every country that starts to implement financial marketization will have cost expenditures again and again, and this is also the cost expenditure again and again. , creating their currency status.”

"We can't withdraw funds. When the U.S. dollar appreciates, that's when the currency market begins to fluctuate violently. The pound, mark, Japanese yen, franc...many currency exchange rates are changing, and as you know, Europe is our base camp where we can make profits.”

"Keda's research institute has given an opinion that market investors have insufficient confidence in the RMB exchange rate. Lei, your country's central bank strongly stabilizes the onshore exchange rate, which will frustrate investor confidence. Your country's central bank will release the central bank in accordance with market development conditions. The price is high, but the chance of winning is too small.”

"Lei, it's the North American guys who are doing it, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, AIG... Besides, the bearish view on the RMB has become mainstream here in the Asia-Pacific. The difference is just where it falls. In addition, the upward trend of Shibor is obvious, and our channel profits are actually Very objective.”

There were as many problems as Lei Hao imagined, but everyone's reactions were similar to what he expected.

Therefore, Lei Hao spread his hands and curled his lips and said: "I didn't say we should be stable, I just think... everyone should draw a line for the RMB exchange rate, and draw a line where we can make a profit."

Everyone immediately became energetic.