I Am Not A Mage Lord

  Chapter 154 Three Questions

   The five guards of the Enti kingdom who were all in silver armor on the opposite side, after asking questions, they fixedly stared at Lynch's every move.

  These high elves, who are naturally intelligent and observant, directly analyze Lynch’s inner movements, from his pores to breathing rate and pulse.

   "Although these elves didn't use mind-reading spells rashly, they have already pushed your expression into consideration. This test begins the moment you think about it."

  After the elves asked questions, the silent ghost suddenly spoke.

   Lynch also understands this.

  He and his friends once met a master of micro expressions. After the opponent asked them to draw a card from the deck and write it down, the master gradually dangled the cards in front of them.

  As a result, his friends were all guessed of the chosen card without exception, even those who were born with facial paralysis.

  Only Lynch was not guessed which card he picked twice in a row.

  Because he forgot after reading it, when he needed it, he remembered it again.

  At this time, Lynch also exerts this kind of specialty. At the same time, the whole body of will is hidden in the palace of memory, wandering around the bookshelves of "Probability Theory" and "Game Theory".

  Once upon a time, these books were dusted for many years after reading them. He thought he would no longer use an opportunity in this life.

  After all, a group of people chatting in the bar are all about getting rich and getting rich, Tiancai and elder sisters, gossip in the circle, and so on, who would be boring to talk about the game theory prisoner’s dilemma.

  Even in the dilemma that the number of teenagers in Chong Duan is declining, and Go is gradually becoming a niche hobby, it is also relied on artificial intelligence to renew its popularity, making learning Go one of the hobbies of countless parents.

   "The door must be changed. It is 2/3 possibility to change to door B, and 1/3 possibility to change to door B." Ghost immediately analyzed it to Lynch.

It's not that he prompted Lynch, but this "counter-intuitive" problem. It's okay to fool ordinary people, but for himself, and even for Lynch, the "natural spellcaster", it is a problem that can be reflected with a little thought. .

   Lynch also nodded.

  In fact, this three-door problem has a special term-"Monty Hall problem".

  It was a host named "Monty Hall" who played a similar game. The only difference was that there was a car or a goat behind the door.

The prototype of the   problem comes from the "three prisoners problem" mentioned by Martin Gardner in "Mathematics Game" in 59 years.

Later, after a columnist who was rumored to have an IQ test of more than 200, Marilyn Voss Savant gave the option of "changing" in the magazine, which caused an uproar, and tens of thousands of readers wrote to oppose it, and many of them were colleges. Department of PhD.

  Intuitively, it should be 1/2 whether to change or not.

   Lynch looked at the five high elves who were expecting his answer. Undoubtedly, their attitudes at the moment have become much more kind, as if they treat him as a guest.

  "For this question, the first point of view is to change the choice. The probability of getting the palace scroll is 2/3, and if it does not change, it is 1/3."

  "Another view is that regardless of whether it is changed or not, the probability of the scroll of the palace behind the door is 1/2."

  Hearing this, the five high elves on the opposite side showed confused eyes.

  Most of the "natural casters" who come here will give their first point of view when facing this "simple" problem.

   Including Ghost, I didn’t understand what medicine Lynch’s gourd sold.

  It can only warn, “You’d better be cautious in your answer. The elves love freedom and diverse things. They like to express their individuality, value and protect the freedom of themselves and others, and they are mostly kind.”

  "But this is not a simple academic dispute, but a rigid test answer."

  "Especially in the face of magic, they are more like rigid rationalists. This is also the reason why the higher elves are closed here. They think that ordinary magic has deviated from the original normal track of magic."

"The'natural casters' who can come here are more like high elves reinjecting into the correction zone of major magic civilizations. It is a process of throwing stones to ask for directions. The previous Urel angered the high in terms of ideas. Elves, if you stick to a certain concept, it is very likely that the entire Blue Star and the enti kingdom of the high elves will be cut off again."

  The implication is that even if he holds the truth, if the examiner cannot understand, he will be rejected by one vote, and even some senses in the future will be affected by the argument.

  Because the interview itself is not a place to explore right and wrong, but a place to prove oneself.

  For some lawyers who have to arguing with the judge about the level of life and death, in most cases, there is no good fruit to eat, let alone this kind of place involving ideological disputes.

  Ghost also advised Lynch to be cautious and conservative, and don't think about showing off here.

   Lynch just smiled at this, he naturally knew.

"If you know which door is behind the hall scroll, then deliberately open the door to go home scroll. That can be extended to 100 doors. After I choose one door, among the remaining 99 doors, the host will even Open 98 doors of the scroll home, and then ask me if I can change it."

   "Obviously, the hit rate of changing is 99/100, and if not changing is 100%. This is also the reason why changing doors can increase the probability from 1/3 to 2/3 in this problem."

  From the perspective of the frequency school, the probability of choosing the original A gate is naturally still 1/3, but the essence of "changing" is to choose BC two, so there will be a 2/3 probability.

  Even after the Bayes theorem is used to calculate the conditional probability, the result will only be 2/3.

  However, Lynch shook his head.

  "After I choose door A from the three doors, the probability of the hall scroll behind the door is 1/3. The probability of door B and door C having hall scroll is also 1/3."

  "According to the host's next clue. If the hall scroll is behind door B, the host will open door C. If the hall scroll is behind door C, the host will open door B."

   "So if I change my choice, as long as the hall scroll is behind door B or door C, I will win; if I stick to my original intention, I will only win if the hall scroll is behind door A."

  "This is the Monte Carlo method just mentioned. If you use experiments to simulate, you will find that the probability of replacement is higher, which is about 2/3."

  At this time, the five high elves nodded in understanding. This is exactly what they expected Lynch to answer, and even this is the official template, following the "Monte Carlo" method.

  "Probability is a manifestation of the inability of all creatures to know and omnipotence." The high elf headed by said.

  "But then you should know that the view that both are 1/2 is wrong."

  However, Lynch still shook his head, “I know this is the final answer, and I was shocked even when I realized this question, but at this moment, I still can’t accept this.”

The opposite high elf smiled and said, "It's very simple, because biological intuition is inherently not suitable for dealing with problems of probability. When evaluating and choosing uncertain situations, www.wuxiaspot.com~ relies heavily on intuition. But this The point is determined by evolutionary advantages, and we cannot change it."

"The evaluation of uncertain situations in the brain depends on emotional factors, and the risk-reward part is also completed by the dopamine mechanism of your brain. This circuit mechanism is for the reward circuit of the brain, especially the motivation and emotional decision-making part. It played a huge role."

   "However, these are the distractions we need to abandon when we learn magic."

   "The study of magic itself is violating this intuition, or surpassing probability."

  The high elves on the opposite side talked to themselves all the way, as if they were enlightening Lynch, as if he revealed some magical mysteries.

  Suddenly, Lynch spoke.

   "But if at the beginning, the host didn't know which door had a hall scroll?"

  The eyes of the high elves gradually narrowed, "Then what is the winning rate of the trade at this time?"

  "If you use the Monte Carlo algorithm for multiple trials, it will be close to one result." Lynch's tone also became solemn.

   "50%."

  (End of this chapter)