I Spent Those Years In the Operating Room Fighting Monsters
Chapter 442: Worst case!
After eating, Lu Cheng vigorously rubbed the bridge of his nose between his eyes to lift his spirits!
Lu Cheng felt that he was wronged enough. He was originally a good orthopedic doctor, but now he took the initiative to provoke work related to statistics, which was a bit painful.
But, to be honest, Lu Cheng felt that no matter what kind of doctor he was, as long as he encountered such a thing, it was impossible to stand by and pretend that such a thing never happened.
Although, Lu Cheng can completely pretend that it didn't happen, as long as he doesn't talk about it himself, all this has nothing to do with him.
There are so many people in the specialist field supporting him, and it has nothing to do with Lu Cheng, a person in the surgical field.
Even, in the current medical system implemented in China, professional people do well in professional things, and there is a clear division of labor!
He didn't know that Qian Min's authority was quite special, or maybe it was because Qian Min's ability was very outstanding, he quickly sent the information that Lu Cheng wanted to the door of Lu Cheng's room.
After the handover with Lu Cheng, he also sent masks and protective clothing to Lu Cheng, because according to tomorrow's daily life, the place Lu Cheng needs to go is relatively dangerous. Although someone was accompanying him, Lu Cheng still needed to go to the field to investigate.
After doing this, Qian Min explained again, "Mr. Lu, you should also take a good rest."
"I pushed anyone who wanted to visit you in P city today. If you have any friends in P city, you can let me know."
Lu Cheng shook his head and said, "I don't have any friends in P city. Thank you for your hard work, Qian Min."
Although Qian Min asked Lu Cheng to call him Xiao Qian, Lu Cheng was not used to such a name, so he simply called Qian Min's name directly.
It's just that Lu Cheng was quite puzzled that he had just arrived in P City, and he was temporarily appointed, so why would anyone know that he was in charge of investigating the source of P City's UID.
These people will come to visit, but Lu Cheng can understand it very well, because with reference to H City, the relevant leaders will be temporarily dismissed and transferred from their posts.
Lu Cheng looked through the information collected from P City and felt a little headache.
These materials are very scattered, and obviously they have not been specially organized, so they are basically disorganized. Because from the data inside, Fang Xian felt that it was too textualized, basically repeating the standard of H city to equalize the UID in P city.
There is absolutely no standard and measure of its own.
However, Fang Xian can also understand that the inexplicable virus (VI) has just appeared, and it is difficult to have his own interpretation of it in P City.
However, the multivariate nature of VI is the primary consideration that needs to be taken into account.
Moreover, based on the previous statistics from P City, Lu Cheng had a not-so-good guess—
The VI of P city is not necessarily the same thing as H city.
Because, in general, the RO value of a VI will vary to a certain extent, but the difference is not particularly large, and it will be stable around a value. However, the difference in population density between City H and City P must also be taken into account...
After looking at it for about an hour, Lu Cheng felt that the reference significance of this document was really not that big.
Immediately afterwards, Lu Cheng continued to read the statistics of the new rounds using the little crawler software that Dong Zhen passed on to him...
It's not that Lu Cheng is too worried.
When Lu Cheng discovered the first UID, the first patient with suspected VI infection, he traced the corresponding sojourn history and found that there was no special correlation. Without correlation, there are more factors to consider.
Don't just look for similarities in a stylized way, and treat the contents of textbooks as absolute edicts.
Although the possibility of multiple, multi-point network transmission structures is very small, this kind of structure will make life worse than death, but reality may often be more cruel than theory...
Think a little more, and there won't be too many mistakes.
From H city to P city, Lu Chengcheng found something wrong.
In front of Lu Cheng, he went from Shashi to Yashi, then to Modu, and then to Guangzhou, so when he paid attention to checking the data of these places, he did not find any special differences. Only in P When I was in the city, I found that the R0 value has a special situation!
If you look at it according to basic common sense, since there is no special R0 value difference between the three points of Shashi, Yashi, and Modu, but the distance between the three is so far, then there are two possibilities.
H City went to Shashi, Yashi, and Modu, and there were about the same number of people.
It's just that the number of people moving from City H to these three places is obviously different. And there is a certain difference in the distance. In this way, there should be a point in the middle of these three places, which will affect the R0 value and the number of VI in these three places at the same time.
What the **** happened to this TM?
This is something that Lu Cheng didn't even talk about with Lin Hui. Of course, this is also the worst result. Lu Cheng hopes that the final fact will never be the case.
Today, the means of targeting UIDs are tough enough, and H City has been fully SEALed!
Other important central cities have also been sealed successively.
If at this time, there is still such a big impact, it will only bring more panic, and it will have no other meaning.
Reducing liquidity is already the best way to control the outbreak of UIDs.
After Lu Cheng once again analyzed the new two rounds of data, Lu Cheng once again found two inconsistent points...
City Z in J Province…
City X in S province…
City Z and City X are big cities similar to City H. The population and medical technology in them are no worse than City H. So, these statistics are credible...
As soon as these two things came out, Lu Cheng could be sure almost immediately.
This is the multi-point mesh structure.
If you just simply pay attention to H City, it is too limited.
Don't be careless.
Thinking of this, Lu Cheng immediately turned on the computer and wrote an email to his teacher explaining the situation. And I packaged and sent my analysis charts of the past few days, along with the pictures of the crawler software, etc.
Lu Cheng has only one person himself, and he has already arrived in P City, so he will definitely not be able to clone himself.
City H was the first place where Lu Cheng found something wrong with RO, and City P was the second.
City X and City Z were both discovered by Lu Cheng through statistical analysis of the existing data. This cannot be said to be wrong for Lin Hui to call Lu Cheng to other places. On the contrary, it made Lu Cheng escape from the very beginning. It is a simple circle of limitations at the beginning and looks at the problem from a global perspective.
The more theories are put forward earlier, the more significance for this event.
Although the current result is the worst, it is the last thing everyone wants to see.
However, since this kind of thing has already happened, the more mature way to deal with it is to solve him.
Not long after Lu Cheng's email was sent, Lin Hui called immediately with a very heavy tone.
Said: "Lu Cheng, the National Health and Health Commission has been notified that it is preparing to temporarily set up an ANTI-X-VI expert discussion group. You are also a member of the expert discussion group, and you are the first speaker."
"The meeting will be held in fifteen minutes. Prepare your existing materials and organize your language."
"It doesn't matter if you say it well or not, but you must tell the seriousness of the problem and make it clear."
"The process of data analysis should be refined. It doesn't matter whether others can understand it or not. The process of data analysis must be displayed. There are always people who can understand, because this time the expert discussion group involves various fields."
Speaking of this, Lin Hui took another deep breath and said hoarsely, "Currently, the number of UIDs has exceeded 2000+!"
"According to this situation, I really don't know if the final multiple will exceed the current one thousand!"
No one can answer this question now. Even Lu Chengcheng doesn't know that he will go to investigate tomorrow, and he doesn't know if he will get sick when he comes back.
So Lu Cheng can only say: "I don't know either."
"However, we must first determine the basic points, and then start from the basic points to control VI. This is the basic principle in epidemiology. No matter what, we must first find out how many points there are."
"Otherwise, the missing point will cost efforts everywhere else."
Lu Cheng said with a little fear in his heart.
The more the data is analyzed, the more Lu Cheng feels that the situation is bigger this time, and the more he needs to find a solution earlier, otherwise, there will be too many things involved.
It's not just the number of UIDs.
Culture, economy, education and other fields will be severely affected.
Lin Hui didn't answer, obviously very tired.
After a while, he comforted: "This is something no one wants to happen, and no one can predict it. The most important thing now is to solve the problem. As for the matter of finding out the cause?"
"We're just doctors."
"Master. No one embarrassed you, right?"
"I'm sorry, Master." Lu Cheng did not answer Lin Hui's words, but said.
Lin Hui shook his head and said, "No, you are not sorry for me, but I want to say sorry."
"My own imagination was too one-sided. I didn't expect it to develop into what it is now. In fact, no matter where you are, you can't escape. This may be fate."
"I'm not afraid to tell you something. In the early stage, the number of our medical staff who were INFEct(in) was not very large, but some of the staff involved in the control were already 0.1%. At present, there is no better treatment method. "
"And the existing basic experiments have not been able to isolate RNA, and even the shell of the virus can't be read, let alone a more in-depth mechanism. Our task is still very heavy."
After listening, Lu Cheng asked, "What are the symptoms?"
"The simple symptoms are cough and fever, and the severe ones are multiple organ failure. They can migrate from the lungs to all parts of the body. At present, the symptoms are relatively mild, and the vital signs are relatively good."
"So although the RO index is high, the toxicity is not quite large."
"We also have to analyze the characteristics of the UID patients themselves. It's better to find the source early."
"It's just in City H, I've almost searched through it, and I haven't been able to find the natural source of vi, I really don't know where the source comes from, or is it human beings themselves."
Lu Cheng frowned: "Didn't find the natural source of VI?"
"It's impossible!"
Lu Cheng was very entangled. With the power and ability of H City, it should have been long overdue to find the source of VI in nature!
"But it's the truth!"
"Everything is still unknown."
"Okay, don't say more, the meeting of the expert group will start later."
"You're ready to report."
"…"
About ten minutes later, Qian Min came in, apparently receiving a notice to provide Lu Cheng with tools for an online discussion meeting, including computers, microphones, headphones, etc.
Moreover, the place arranged for Lu Cheng was also changed from the room to a small conference room, which was convenient for Lu Cheng to display the manuscript materials.
The online discussion expert group was formed very quickly. There were 20 people in total. After each one of them had a staff member who set up their own account and changed their name, the host directly called Lu Cheng to make a report.
Lu Cheng didn't talk nonsense, and directly inserted into the core content of the meeting.
When Lu Cheng mentioned that there may be more than one center, and when I didn't know more than one center, there was obviously a riot in the venue. Obviously, the people who came to the conference did not think that the current H City and P City have become On the basis of a mess that gave everyone a headache.
This kind of mess is just a small point in a big mess, and it may not be known how many messes will appear.
"how could this be?"
"what?"
"This?"
…
However, it is obvious that the participants are extremely qualified people. UU Reading www.uukanshu.com closed his mouth immediately after sighing in a low voice. Then Lu Chengcheng shared his argumentation process and data with them, as well as detailed information. calculation steps.
The final result is that the number of VIs in City X and City Z, the R0 index, is also rising.
But this is just pure data analysis and does not have the nature of true definition.
Therefore, the same level of attention is required, and someone must go to verify the authenticity of the data.
After Lu Cheng finished speaking, in the space conference room, Ya Que was silent, and even the host had left the venue temporarily, apparently to report something.
About ten minutes after Lu Cheng finished speaking, the host reappeared and then began to host, mainly people from City P and City H, reporting the current research progress in various aspects.
"At present, the reason for the existence of VI in nature is still being further searched. We have conducted very strict and meticulous investigation and sampling in five areas of H City. The current data still does not support the theory of natural source VI."
"Of course, according to the existing sample distribution, there are still some sample sites that have not been investigated in depth. Our next main work deployment and tasks are..."
"When the structure of the pure VI organism is still in the process of further separation, only pictures and specimens have been passed, and the signs that the human body is being destroyed in the tissue have been found. For the time being, it has not been found how to correctly separate the living body and the VI in the non-lysed state. Method, next, we're going to get rid of the feces..."
"…"
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