Investment Life

Chapter 88:

"You have got the information about the international aluminum period. Now let us analyze the aluminum price trend in the past two years."

The young man standing at the big conference table pulled out a roll of paper and nailed it to the PVC display board around him.

"Generally, there are only two factors that dominate the prices of international metals and other raw materials futures: supply and demand. This line is a chart of the change in international aluminum prices from 1991 to 1993. We can clearly see a steep downward line. It dropped rapidly from a high point at the end of 1991 to a low point of $ 1037 / ton at the end of 1993. "

"What caused the aluminum price to plummet? What major events happened internationally in 1991, everyone here should be clear, the former Soviet Union disintegrated on December 25, 1991. As the world's leading power, any change in the Soviet Union will affect The world economy has a major impact. In terms of aluminum prices, due to the disintegration of the country, Russia ’s demand for aluminum has greatly reduced. At the same time, in exchange for foreign exchange, a large number of aluminum ingots were dumped to the Western market in a disorderly manner. The balance between supply and demand was broken, and aluminum prices fell. . "

Faced with middle-aged and elderly people aged 30-50 years, the youth face wasn't half afraid, but took the pointer with confidence and patted the drawing. "But the plunge in aluminum prices is also a disaster for Russia itself. Any seller will want their product to fall in price. So there is a second table ... "

As he said, he tore off the sheet of paper with a swipe, exposing the bar chart below.

"This is the world aluminum production statistics from 1992 to 1993. We can clearly see the signs of production reduction. According to the Brussels consultation meeting, Russia and several other major aluminum companies in the world have reached an agreement and plan to reduce production by 100 in two years. Ten thousand tons has promoted the recovery of aluminum prices. Of course, it must be stated in advance that this 'how many countries in the world' does not include China. "

"So in 1994, aluminum prices started to rebound."

With this sentence, the chart turned to the next page, and a standard upward line appeared in front of everyone.

"The reduction in production is effective. With the reduction in output, the price of aluminum is gradually rising steadily. According to the usual rules, it will stabilize at about 1,500 US dollars per ton and start to fluctuate up and down, but this time the price of aluminum has not proceeded in accordance with these laws. Instead, it suddenly rose up to 2,000 US dollars per ton at a stretch. Even if the output is reduced, it should not stimulate aluminum prices so much. What affects the price change ... "

Originally, I wanted to buy another one. A middle-aged man with glasses next to him intervened. "This year, China ’s demand for aluminum ingots has increased greatly. Imports have exceeded 10 million tons. The price of aluminum in Shanghai has doubled because Is this right? "

The slightly coquettish introduction was interrupted, and the young people looked at the audience a little awkwardly. "It is true that there is only one reason for the price of aluminum to soar beyond the highest historical record. China lacks aluminum ..."

This sentence calmed everyone down. The man with glasses groaned for a moment, turned his head and looked at the people around him, "Xiao Chen, is this what you mean by economic aggregate?"

Chen Yuanming nodded, "Yeah, Sun, this is the problem facing China. Last year, my operation on the aluminum period was also for this reason. The surge of Shanghai Aluminum is so amazing, it means that China The demand for metal has exceeded the alert value, and the world is reducing production due to agreement. One plus one will reduce the price of aluminum. Last year, I entered the market at around $ 1,400, and only withdrew when the price was above 1900. In the past six months, the aluminum price period It gives me a lot of gains. In other words, if it was China—not me—that entered the market at that time and got enough singles, then we can fully compensate for the losses caused by imports through futures, or even To control market prices. "

"Like what you once said about the manipulation of copper prices by Japan's Sumitomo Group?"

"This is the so-called pricing power. Having an absolute amount of products, or determining the number of futures contracts in the market, is crucial for China's development in the future. The aluminum period is only a small test. If China urgently needs products from aluminum, Cheap metals have become steel, gold, and oil. What will happen to the futures market? "

Most of the people in the room didn't answer, only the young man standing at the table smiled, "It's like running into an elephant in a shallow pool, and the water level will soar."

Very funny sentence, but too many people can't laugh. Chen Yuanming shook his head gently. "Xiao Tang, thank you for your explanation, and I will talk about other issues later."

When the young man heard what Chen Yuanming said, he simply nodded and sat down beside the PVC board. This is the assistant Chen Yuanming recently found. Tang Hao, who just graduated from New York University Business School, has a very bright education and a high level of talent. He has sufficient insight and observation for the futures market. He has no way to say. The problem is that the style is too westernized, and it is inevitable to be exaggerated in the Chinese political circle. There were more than one or two frowning in the conference room just now.

It's a personal talent, but it still needs to be polished. For this regret, Chen Yuanming can still tolerate, at least he can fully understand what he says, and organize the corresponding materials, which helps a lot.

It seemed to be digesting what he had just heard, and Sun Guoqiang thought for a moment before answering, "That's why you think aluminum prices will fall this year? Because of China's output?"

"Not only from China, but also from the world." Chen Yuanming's voice added a little firmness, "The reduction in production is not a good thing for any merchant, especially when this giant Chinese product enters the market and becomes a buyer. By this year, it is estimated that Some aluminum plants will start again to keep up with this trend. But at the same time, China will not let aluminum production go by itself? Import means spending money, too much import will greatly curb the development of the country Speed, I estimate that domestic aluminum smelters will also start production at full strength this year. With these two synergies, how can aluminum prices not fall. "

"Will it fall soon?" Sun Guoqiang asked.

"It should start at the beginning. Now the futures price has deviated from the actual value, so as soon as production starts and production increases, it will fall immediately. But China cannot stop production at one go, and there are as many international financial institutions as manipulating aluminum futures. The number of contracts, so after a period of decline, aluminum prices will rebound. If we choose to short, we have little time. "

No one came to ask how long the rebound period might be. Most people started to read the information on hand, and some whispered and exchanged opinions. The atmosphere at the venue was not enthusiastic, but from the perspective of Sun Guoqiang, Chen Yuanming had seen a positive look. Regardless of the tone of Tang Hao's commentary, the materials he prepared were sufficiently detailed, and the pictures and text were sufficient to explain everything.

With consensus, it is down to the details. Of course, the meeting will not only have explanations from consultants, but also many discussions on organizational structure and risk acetylene value. Now that the Chinese New Year is approaching, the heating in Beijing is at its peak. The heating of this meeting room is also very good. The room is warm and warm, no one smokes, only the faint smell of tea is floating on the nose. After a while, Chen Yuanming felt that his eyelids were a little heavy, his attention was greatly reduced, and he began to become sleepy.

Fortunately, the meeting was not too long. After a long period of time, Chen Yuanming shook hands with several leaders of the foundation, said goodbye, and took Tang Hao out of the gate. Today is a cloudy day, the cold wind is roaring, and the clouds are overcast. It looks like a heavy snow is coming. The cold wind blows. Chen Yuanming hit a spirit and finally awoke.

Standing next to the car and rubbing Qingming Acupoint, he looked up and said to Tang Hao, "Go back first and continue to sort out the copper period data. Don't forget the changes in the US hedge fund. That's what really needs to be watched ... "

"Well, what about the boss? Would you like to return to Zhongguancun?" Tang Hao had no objection. Beijing's winter was too cold, and he wished to stay in the heating room all day long.

Chen Yuanming looked at the sky. "I still have a small appointment. See you tomorrow in Zhongguancun."

After sending the assistant away, Chen Yuanming reached out and rubbed his face, exhaled a white breath, and just wanted to open the door, a voice came behind him.

"Far Ming, then."

When Chen Yuanming froze, he saw something flying towards himself in the corner of his eye, and the position was too good. He could not help reaching for it.

Opening his palm, Chen Yuanming looked intently. It was a PHS, with a familiar navy blue paint, but with a richer and more beautiful color, and the body was smaller than the last time, similar to the palm, and the lower part was slightly concave, showing a beautiful arc. Linear. Chen Yuanming looked up and looked at the person. "You dare to throw this thing, what if I don't catch it?"

"The things in our house are resistant to falling." Xiao Junyi replied with a smile, his pace was so fast that even the scarf around his neck was dancing in the wind, making him more energetic. "This is a genuine second-generation machine, and it really works."

"Communicated?" Chen Yuanming took a moment to understand, came to understand, "Beijing's PHS business opened?"

"Naturally, I talked with the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications for a long time and finally let go. This is your number. The one below is mine, don't forget."

A small card was plugged in, only two strings of numbers were written on it, and Chen Yuanming laughed, "These numbers look pretty forward ..."

"That's the special selection." Grinning, Xiao Junyi opened the door and gestured to Chen Yuanming. "Today I'm going to see the consultant from Anxin? I just want to check the news too, By the way? "

Chen Yuanming smiled and refused, and simply got into the car.

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Now in the cold winter, there is sufficient heating in the car and the windows are closed tightly. Even the Grand Cherokee that I am familiar with, I feel a little dull. Chen Yuanming leaned on the back of the sofa, lowered his eyes, and played with the PHS in his hand. "Now that the business is developing, we can't ignore the upgrade of the version, and the development of the real mobile phone.

Xiao Junyi has long been accustomed to Chen Yuanming's habit of not forgetting business affairs for a moment, leaning back on the chair, "It's still in full swing, I don't know how many units have been removed, mainly because there are some difficulties on the integrated chip. . "

"You can't just analyze the existing content. Closeness to use is the key. For example, how to build the phone book in your phone, how to display the name of the caller, even if you add an alarm clock and calculator ...

My finger was pressed on PHS for a long time, but a familiar operation could not be found. Chen Yuanming stopped with a wry smile. What was he thinking? This is not the complicated mobile phone of later generations ...

"To put it simply, this stuff is so big, the effort required to add any one function is amazing. Now our manufacturing capacity is still very limited, not so fast. It's just the kind of information you use to communicate with PHS. The idea is that the engineers in the factory are very interested. This is similar to the function of the pager, but how to automate it is a difficult problem, and how do you enter Chinese characters on the mobile phone yourself? You ca n’t call the pager anymore to let them Do it for yourself ... "

"The key input method ... This needs to be communicated with the technical staff of Chinese character coding, if it can be outsourced the best. Now the Chinese character system at Peking University Founder's side is very good, you can try to establish various things ... but the most convenient Or just handwriting ... "

"What?" The other party's voice was a bit low, Xiao Junyi couldn't help getting closer, listening carefully, "how to write ..."

"Touch-screen technology, using an electronic pen to type characters in, is the same as writing on paper ... I heard Jonathan said before that there were related research and development in the United States two years ago, but they are not in the right direction, so how can they use English? Handwriting, Chinese should use this ... "

"Someone has started researching?" Xiao Junyi's interest is even greater. "What's the name of the company? Can we cooperate with you? If we can write Chinese characters directly, it will be much more convenient."

"Go, the name is. It's like ... off ... off ..."

The sound was getting quieter and was cut off by a small impact. The blue little phantom slipped between his fingers and fell into the carpet next to his feet. Chen Yuanming's head had been completely tilted on the back of the chair, and no one knew how to sleep.

Looking at the scene in front of him, Xiao Junyi laughed suddenly, just a few minutes after getting on the car? I can fall asleep while chatting, which is too busy lately ... It is said so, but it is not pure helplessness that rises in my heart, but is intertwined with a worry and a little heartache.

His eyes moved involuntarily and carefully across the man's face. After falling into a deep sleep, Chen Yuanming's strange dignity disappeared and faded, and he no longer seemed to be old-fashioned, but instead looked like a real young man. With the exception of the faint shadows under his eyes, there was no mark of time, with a sense of carefree innocence.

The forehead was gently covered above the eyelids, and the eyelashes trembled slightly. The black eyes that seemed to cover it were also uneasy in their sleep. His mouth was silly slightly open, and occasionally a slang uttered a slang, but his shoulders were completely relaxed, leaning loosely there, as if he wanted to find something to rely on ...

After a brief moment, Xiao Junyi took a few steps, reached him, bent down and picked up the PHS that had fallen to the ground. But he did not return the machine, nor did he wake up the sleeping person, but just put his shoulders together so that the other party could use the power to sleep more smoothly and comfortably ...

Raising his wrist and looking at the time, Xiao Junyi whispered to the driver, "Go slowly, find a parking lot when you get there, there is more than an hour, don't worry."

Under this command, the car's travel speed was a little slower, and after a while, snowflakes gradually floated out of the window, from the little stars to the heavy snow, the falling snow blocked the view, and looking out of the window, like Enclosed in a small, isolated space.

As a qualified puppet, Xiao Junyi has never stopped to appreciate what snowflakes fall, and has nothing to do with isolation and ease. But at this moment, he was sitting in the back of this small car safely, hoping that time would become slower and quieter.

The hand holding the PHS was placed on the sofa, leaning lightly against the other drooping arm.

(End of this chapter)

The author has something to say: The aluminum price chart of the London Stock Exchange from 1993 to 2003, at the high of 2195 in January 1995, will soon fall

Yuan Mingji doesn't know the numbers of the highest point or the lowest point, but he is still impressed with the graph. He has better understood the situation in combination with international trends.

Still busy, 死 ~~ 蹭蹭 Dear friends, thank you for your feeding, wait until the weekend to try to get more yards> 3 <

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