Investment Life

If only from the perspective of hedge funds, it is indeed too early to cut into copper. It is important to know that the Sumitomo incident is a long-term tug of war after several ups and downs, from the entry of the Quantum Fund and the Tiger Fund in early 1995 to the Sumitomo Group in 1996. Until the loss of $ 4 billion, it has experienced several ups and downs. First, in mid-1995, Binzhong Tainan resisted the pressure of several hedge funds by himself, pulling the copper price back from a high of more than 2,700 US dollars to a high of 3,000 US dollars, and then in an investigation by the UK and US securities and futures regulators. It fell to more than 2,400 U.S. dollars, and was pulled back to 2,700 Yuan by the stubborn hammer. Until the copper price collapsed in June, it plummeted from 2700 U.S. dollars to 1700 U.S. dollars.

If it was only for money, it would be possible to enter the market from the end of 1995 and spend half a year to get the spread of nearly 1,000 dollars. However, some things are not as simple as imagined. If hedge funds are just money games, then what is hidden under the money tide is really terrible.

In this repression of the Sumitomo Group, in addition to hedge funds such as quantum funds and tiger funds that specialize in financial derivatives, there are also some metal traders in Canada and Europe. Those who hold the spot are desperate to press The existence of the Sumitomo Group. It should be known that since the early 1980s, after Hamamatsu Tainan began to make his appearance in the London metal futures market, the entire London copper futures market has been directly or indirectly affected by him in the past decade. Sumitomo Group is one of the four major consortia in Japan. The industrial chain in various aspects such as trade, metallurgy, machinery, petroleum, and chemical industry has annual sales of up to 100 billion yuan. Such a strong alliance is probably a pressure on the Western world.

Compared to the purely profit-oriented pursuit of hedge funds, the need for metal traders to control commodity pricing is more complex and urgent. With such demand, a conflict of interest naturally arises, which led to the collapse of the copper price in 1996. The collapse of copper prices has had a joint impact on the copper industry around the world, and countless companies closed their doors in this crash. It can be said that this sniper attack on the copper price is exactly a dishwashing operation of the copper industry in the western world. The benefits they have gained not only come from the Sumitomo family, but also from the huge global metal market.

With this knowledge, the copper futures operation should not just stay on the "make money" level. Due to the rapid development of China's economy, copper prices have drawn a long upward curve since 2002, and by 2006 they had skyrocketed to 8,000 USD / ton. As a non-renewable resource, the future reserves of copper, aluminum, iron and other minerals will only become less and less, and the tight spot is the reality. This situation cannot be changed unless new substitutes appear. If there is no way to break through this restraint, China will always be trapped and unable to move in the field of resources.

Therefore, the significance of this Sumitomo incident is even more important. This is not only a tactical operational issue, but also a strategic issue. At present, Chen Yuanming's net worth is not small in the hedge fund industry. You must know that the quantum fund at this time is only 5 billion net worth, the tiger fund may be less than 4 billion, and the Yuanyang Fund already has close to 1.5 billion capital. The liquidity is also $ 800 million, and it can already end as a hunter.

However, this money is far from enough to be "behind the scenes". In the face of the global metallurgical industry composed of giant chaebols and multinational groups, it is almost worthless to mention. The only thing that can truly control the situation and obtain great benefits from it is the existence of a country of this magnitude. Guoxing, and the existence behind it, are the key to everything. And if you focus on this level, you must start preparing for it.

With this heavy consideration, Chen Yuanming will certainly not conceal anything about Sun Guoqiang's doubts, not only explaining in detail the agreement between him and Mr. Robertson, and the operation mode of the entire hedging plan. At the same time, I also briefly shared some current status of the world copper industry.

Although Sun Guoqiang does not have much experience in futures, he is very sensitive to the economy, especially the domestic economy. Long before they went abroad, someone in the Guoxing team had already calculated the index price co-integration relationship between Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum, and established a set of formulas and analysis curves that made Chen Yuanming look dizzy for the Chinese commodity market. The lack of pricing power is explained.

After Guoxing entered the international aluminum market and made a profit from it, such theoretical research was further strengthened. Combined with the fluctuations of Shanghai Aluminum, it has integrated some experience. This group of real technical bureaucrats is often better than businessmen in macro-control. They are more sensitive. When the information is sufficient and they have adapted to the rules of the international futures market step by step, they accept and understand it no less quickly than anyone.

Therefore, after Chen Yuanming spread out the matter, Sun Guoqiang frowned slightly, "You mean, we should start from this matter to the struggle for pricing power?"

"It's too early to talk about pricing rights." Chen Yuanming shook his head. "But the mining company is an ideal part of the intervention. If this suppression is really successful, it will cause a wave of reshuffles of mining companies around the world, busy in Europe and the United States. In Japan, can we pry some corners over? "

The national situation is such that it is not practical to rush to grab pricing power now. It is the current status of China's development. However, knowing the trajectory of historical development, and generally being able to guess something behind the scenes, all kinds of convenient conditions are there, how can it not be exciting. Only for industrial entities, Chen Yuanming is still a layman. The true mining industry is a key industry involving national strategic resources. It is not something he can control if he wants to grab this cheap from others.

Sun Guoqiang's brow tightened, he shook his head, and nodded again. "If we only refer to copper, we don't know much. The countries with the largest copper production in the world are not in China's sphere of influence. It goes without saying that Chile and Peru are South American countries. Mexico is even more of the United States. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Kazakhstan are more or less hostile. It is Indonesia. It is not easy to get involved in these places ... "

"But ..." After a pause, he tapped his finger on the information about the Mexican financial crisis. "This crisis is a good entry point. It can be said that it is the over-liberalization that destroyed the Mexican economy. The financial system, when the Mexican side has a little thought, they should increase the construction of industry and cut into a destroyed economic system. It is much easier than usual. In your opinion, how long can Mexico recover? "

"Soon." Chen Yuanming replied abnormally, "The financial system in North America cannot be chaotic, and the United States will not let Mexico's financial market continue to collapse. Robertson also told me at the party that the United States will begin to assist Mexico in the near future. It restores normal order in the financial markets. However, there will still be continued shocks, and Latin America will certainly be affected. "

"Um." Sun Guoqiang nodded slightly. "What about copper futures? How long can you expect Sumitomo to support you?"

"You don't have to worry about this." Chen Yuanming smiled. "This is the pricing right of a product. As long as Sumitomo Group and Binzhong Tainan are not stupid, they will not give up easily. I think it may last for 1 year or even 1.5 years. Time. "

auzw.com

"That is to say, when the economies of South America and Mexico have just entered a period of recovery, they may encounter another crisis in the copper industry?"

"Theoretically, it's so good." Chen Yuanming's answer was exceptionally simple. In this regard, he still had a lot of certainty.

"You can try it out ..." Sun Guoqiang fell into deep thought again.

"Don't forget, if copper futures fluctuate sharply, other metals are likely to fluctuate with it, so by 1996, we may face more than just opportunities for copper."

The addition of each piece of chips has already made a big enough pie. Although China has established a strategic partnership with Brazil in 1993, Brazil's Vale is, after all, a too hard stone, not so good. If we can make adequate preparations before such an international change, maybe there will be some gains in the copper industry and even other mining, this need not only economic, but also political considerations.

But it matters, and the details need to be scrutinized. In the following days, Sun Guoqiang successively held several consultations with Chen Yuanming, and finally finalized the position of Guoxing Fund in this game.

At present, Guoxing Fund's gains on the futures aluminum are quite good. Due to the right time of intervention, it has been mixed with the short-selling team and the operation is smooth. However, 2 billion is still a sufficiently large number, which also indirectly affects the decline rate of aluminum prices. When this downward trend reaches the bottom line of those mining companies, they will inevitably begin to reach out to rescue the market. From the current situation, this No later than the end of March.

At that time, the first wave of operations on copper futures had already begun. Under the aggressive offensive, Guoxing could slowly pull away from aluminum futures and enter the copper futures market to find the fish, further reducing the price of copper. If the price of copper rebounds, it can quickly turn short, and use Binzhong's offensive to counter-press European and American groups, while earning time for the overall situation, it also earns more benefits. And when the opportunity is right, it turns to empty again, and it is the best choice.

In this way, no matter which side is strong or which side is weak, in this money game, Guoxing can always be invincible. And Chen Yuanming's Yuanyang Fund will need to adjust certain funds for long-term operation. Although the early profit is worrying, when it persists until the Sumitomo Group is completely defeated in the end, of course, huge profits will also fall into the bag.

A winning money game.

Of course, Sun Guoqiang would not have any objections to such an operation. Instead, he smiled and said, "If there is a crime of disrupting market order in the world, it is estimated that we will all be convicted."

Hearing this, Chen Yuanming also smiled a little, "In the era of great sailing, there must always be a pirate culture, as long as the blade is not facing itself."

Yeah, this is the difference between marine civilization and farming civilization. This set of game rules established by Europe and the United States still retains the original appearance of hundreds of years ago, but it is more hidden and cruel. If we don't learn from it, learn from it, or even apply it to others, China will never rise again in this global village.

It's just the word "rise".

After getting first-hand information from Mexico and having a long-term plan for the futures market for this and next two years, Sun Guoqiang took his own team to return home. It will take some time to cut copper here. After attending several elite banquets, Chen Yuanming temporarily put aside Yuanyang's operation and turned back to the direction of Silicon Valley. If this year's futures market is just to lay the foundation for next year, then in Silicon Valley, it's the harvest season.

(End of this chapter)

The author has something to say: there are more than 8 points! Hey ~~ Business wars still take a lot of effort qaq

Proofreading God Horse, let's talk tomorrow and get out of bed _: з ゝ ∠_