Korean Entertainment’s Future Insight

Luo Junning has already thought about what the topic of his temporary assignment in the United States this time is, that is, the prediction and evaluation of the second housing crisis in the United States.

The second housing crisis, the full name of the sub-prime housing credit crisis, is clearly reflected in the name, that is, the economic bubble and crisis caused by the imbalance of real estate development in the United States. Of course, the imbalance of real estate development is just the fuse However, the deepest reason is the policy direction of the US government and the basic needs of the American people.

All this has to start from the 50 basis point reduction in the US federal funds rate five years ago. The Fed’s monetary policy began a cycle of changing interest rates from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts. After 13 interest rate cuts, by June 2003, the Federal Reserve The fund interest rate was reduced to 1%, the lowest level in the past 46 years. This loose monetary environment is also reflected in the real estate market. The housing loan interest rate has fallen over the same period. The fixed mortgage loan interest rate for 30 years has dropped from 8.1% at the end of 2000. From 5.8% in 2003, the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.0% at the end of 2001 to 3.8% in 2003, which is also an important reason for the continued prosperity of American real estate.

However, from 2004, which was also the first year that Luo Junning went to South Korea as a high school exchange student, the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy began to reverse. By June 2005, after Luo Junning passed the college entrance examination, the United States had raised interest rates 13 times in a row. By now in 2006, the federal funds rate has increased from 1% to 4.73%. With the firm implementation of such a policy, the cost of housing borrowing has also increased, and it has begun to play a role in demanding and cooling the market, leading to a decline in housing prices. And a substantial increase in the risk of mortgage default.

In the United States, credit disputes due to the inability to pay for high-value housing are also beginning to increase. What makes Luo Junning even more amusing is that some financial institutions deliberately package high-risk mortgage loans into securities'quietly' Isn’t this a typical pitfall to sell these problematic mortgage securities to investors?

"The opacity of the rating market and the conflict of interest of rating agencies are the main reasons why these serious high-risk assets enter the investment market smoothly. It seems that the United States is too free, and freedom has caused so many problems." Luo Junning's finger lightly Knock on the desktop, pre-constructed scenes and economic models that may happen in the future, but this is obviously not the information work that the human brain can complete at a time with a usage rate of only a single-digit percentage, so he very much pressed these in his heart. , Stretched his waist, "Forget it, let's take it slow. Anyway, this is an American issue. It is just a topic for me. I want to come to the so-called free federation in the United States, and the existence of national policies is determined by capital. It should have discovered the bad signs and started to deal with it. There shouldn't be an interlocking economic crisis, right?"

Out of trust in the American economy, Luo Junning did not take this issue too important, but treated it as a normal job.

In the evening, Luo Junning went to Chen Fan’s house and met his sister-in-law whom he hadn’t seen for a long time. He was very touched by the gentle-natured sister-in-law who was in a water village in the south of the Yangtze River. If he chooses, he thinks that these two women should be his own sisters, and he did the same. The only regret is that he didn't see Chen Fan's daughter, that weird little girl, who should be more than 5 years old this year.

In the next few days, Luo Junning was familiar with the operation of the company during working hours, and gradually participated in Chen Fan's work process, but he existed more as an observer, and did not use his own identity to influence Chen Fan’s decision, after several negotiations with Google’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and exchange-of-interest negotiations, Luo Junning absorbed this knowledge like a sponge. It’s not that he suddenly became interested in family affairs, but it seemed that It can be used in Infinite Production. After all, he often interacts with the MBC executives of one of the three major TV stations as the owner of Infinite Production. In the future, he may have to exchange interests with the executives of KBS and SBS. It is always good to learn some knowledge in this area, so as not to be in a hurry in the future. After all, the top executives of these three TV stations in South Korea will never be more'economically minded' than the people of professional world-scale companies like Google?

Chen Fan was very satisfied with Luo Junning’s performance during this period, and also privately told Tang Han about Luo Junning’s performance here. In his opinion, Luo Junning may not be a qualified executor, but he already has a qualified controller. The foundation you should have.

In his free time, Luo Junning was actively completing the selected topics. After the target topics were determined, he dragged Chen Fan to collect information on mortgages and related policies of the U.S. Reserve Bank of America, and quickly completed a series of analyses. He made predictions and boldly made assumptions and speculations. At the end, he also gave several possible scenarios. The worst scenario is of course the most likely large-scale economic crisis in his simulation.

"A major economic crisis triggered by the subprime housing credit crisis?" Looking at this paper, Chen Fan was silent, but his eyes flashed with strange light.

Luo Junning said with a smile: "This is the worst plan. If the U.S. government does not make adjustments to the current policy and improve the rating system soon, it may really happen, but the possibility is really unlikely, after all. It’s the United States. Although I don’t have a special preference for this country, it’s the strongest country in the world.”

Is it the strongest?

Chen Fan shook his head and smiled: "This paper is not bad, don't you mind if I make a copy?"

"Feel free, as long as Brother Chen doesn't belong to your name at the back of the paper and publish it." Luo Junning said indifferently.

"You kid, am I the kind of person who grabs results?" Chen Fan said with a smile. After copying this paper, he directly transmitted it back to China and sent it to Luo Junning's father, and soon he I also received a call from Luo Zesheng, asking about the possibilities predicted in this paper. In the end, a plan to deal with this possible economic crisis and how to maximize the benefits in this round of economic crisis has also begun. With a draft, there will be someone to start to improve it.

Hanging up, Chen Fan looked at the paper in front of him, and thought silently: Junning has a keen eye, but still a bit too idealistic. The United States is very strong, yes, but the strongest point is the weakest point, the United States. There are too many powerful economies. Therefore, the possibility of this large-scale economic crisis with the least expected possibility is greatly increased in the mutual dumping of these powerful economies in the United States. This, but it is an opportunity. It is an opportunity for Zelu to expand itself and truly enter the American market.

Luo Junning didn’t know what Chen Fan did. At this moment, he was watching the dance videos of beautiful women one after another on the computer, with a scrutiny gleam in his eyes. Don’t get me wrong, he is not choosing a target. After all, he already has He has a girlfriend, and he also cherishes his current girlfriend. Now, he is just choosing a dance teacher for his girlfriend. This is also his second assignment in the United States besides thesis.