Lord of Industrialization

The first task Shupaiya, the president of the Dawn Chamber of Commerce, received was to recruit people to clean up the information room of the original guild alliance and organize all the information into categories.

On the first day of December, Shupaiya came to Frederick's house to report on his work, and other people happened to be there.

It was a burgundy-haired scholar who was chatting and laughing with Frederick. Foreign Minister Christian stood by with a smile on his face, doing some atmosphere management and helping to pour tea.

Frederick introduced the two of them with a smile, and Shupaiya felt a little bitter because the person in front of him was Professor Adam, the new Minister of Commerce of Wesson State.

Professor Adam didn't know that the man in front of him had had thoughts about his position. When he saw that he was the new boss's subordinate, he smiled and said: "It turns out to be Your Excellency Shupaiya. I have heard about you before."

"Now that you are the president of Dawn Chamber of Commerce, I just heard about your arrangements for you. It really opened my eyes."

"I believe that in the near future, your name will spread to every port along with Duke Wesson."

Shupaiya is also a person who has seen strong winds and waves. He has already adjusted his mentality and said with a kind face: "For your good advice, I am just a soldier under Duke Wesson charging at sea."

After they finished their courtesy, Frederick said to Shupaiya: "I heard that there are many businessmen in Hanma City who want to invest in Weisen State. I will leave this matter to Professor Adam, and you and Christian will assist."

Shupaiya suddenly became depressed, but still accepted the order.

Frederick picked up the tea cup and took a sip of hot tea, and then said: "The Dawn Chamber of Commerce will have new business next."

"Shupaya, I remember that collecting and selling prices of important goods at various ports and delivering letters were once one of the businesses of the Guildhall Alliance, right?"

Shupaiya immediately replied: "Yes, this business is still going on. The Guild Hall Alliance used to provide letter delivery services between more than a hundred cities and monthly commodity price updates. Now we can provide services in the Rhine River Basin, Business between Hanma City and several ports in Northland.”

Frederick nodded and asked him again: "Have you heard of Wesson's broadcast?"

Shupaiya's eyes lit up and he immediately replied: "I have heard many businessmen say that you are going to let the Chamber of Commerce run this business?"

Frederick nodded and said: "Yes, I plan to first cooperate with the locals to establish broadcast stations in major ports in the North Sea. At sea, broadcasts can be used to determine the position of ships."

He went on to talk about the broadcast positioning system that he had discussed with Professor Heinrich.

Shupaiya's eyes widened when he heard this, and he asked in disbelief: "Is this true?"

Frederick said angrily: "Why did I lie to you? You are not a beauty."

"When Heinrich comes with several sets of equipment next spring, you will need to assist him in setting up broadcasting stations in the three port cities of Hanma City, Bremen City and Swan City, and at the same time test the positioning system. These three It’s up to you to sell local radios.”

Shupaiya inquired about the working style of senior officials in Weisen State. He had already learned to wear a suit and run around with a thermos cup, and now he immediately recorded it in his notebook.

Frederick saw that he was still using a dip pen and thought that no one had made pens and pencils yet, so he would "invent" them someday.

After recording, Shupaiya said: "If it can really achieve maritime positioning, I believe every ship on the sea will buy it."

Frederick said: "That's natural. Professor Heinrich and I are just waiting to make money from this."

"The improved broadcasting system can transmit information. Professor Heinrich has developed equipment that can transmit messages. This time, he also brought it to set up points in Hanma City and Bremen City, so that communication between the two cities can be carried out. Communicated quickly."

"If this system can be used, a person can send a message in Hanma City in the morning, and Bremen City can receive it immediately, and the message can be sent to the designated person the next day. Similarly, product price information It can also be transmitted this way.”

"When the experiment is successful, it will be up to you how to build a communication network covering the North Sea and even wider areas."

Shupaiya's expression gradually changed from surprise to excitement, and he said excitedly: "If it is true...if the experiment is successful, there are so many things we can do!"

Frederick said calmly: "Don't be too happy yet. There are many difficulties. When Professor Heinrich comes next year, you can study it slowly with him. He will be busy here in the next few years. "

"The initial investment cost of this project is very huge. I will send someone to send the money. Remember to clean the money bank."

Shupaiya replied seriously: "The advantage of the treasury of the Guild Hall Alliance in the past was that it was clean."

At this time, Professor Adam said: "It is not a good thing if the money bank is too full. Money must be circulated to be money."

Frederick echoed a few words, and then asked Shupaiya: "Are you familiar with insurance?"

Shupaiya said in a panic: "You want to get involved in insurance? This is too dangerous. It is simply gambling. If something goes wrong, you will lose everything!"

Frederick curled his lips and said disdainfully: "You think I don't know how you get insurance. It's just that you are too stupid and only bet on whether the ship will come back safely."

Insurance in these days was very primitive. The captain found a rich man and deposited a sum of money with him before going to sea. If he returned safely, the money would belong to the rich man. If something happened along the way, the rich man would pay for the loss.

As Shupaiya said, it's like gambling, you get money when you win and you lose money when you lose.

Frederick picked up the tea cup and took a sip slowly, and said very confidently: "That's because they don't know how to do it, but I'm different."

"Let me ask you, among the several fixed routes between Hanma City and the north, how many ships are there every year, how many ships are involved in accidents, and how many shipwrecks are there on average for every 100 trips to sea?"

Shupaiya thought for a while before replying: "These fixed routes are very mature, less than once in 100 times."

Frederick said seriously: "Assume there are 100 ships, each of which is worth 1,000 florins with its cargo. We charge 3% insurance premium for each ship. If one ship sinks, we will pay. How much did we end up earning?”

Shupaiya quickly figured it out, and the answer made his face twitch.

"But..." He still hesitated, "This just changed from a one-on-one bet to a one-on-one bet."

Frederick shook his head and said: "This is not a blind bet, but a conclusion based on data analysis. This is why I say that the Guild Hall Alliance's information is a gold mine."

"You have calculated the proportion of shipwrecks, as well as several important factors leading to shipwrecks and their proportions, especially the data in recent years, and use these data as a basis to determine insurance rates under different circumstances."

"There is no need to rush this matter. You can try it bit by bit."

"Also, some mathematics scholars can be recruited with high salaries to work in the Chamber of Commerce. Our decisions are based on data and not taken for granted."

His understanding of the insurance industry is limited, mainly because he knows nothing about probability theory and the law of large numbers, which are the basis of mathematics. At most, he knows that the Poisson distribution seems to be related to the law of large numbers. This and the Poisson bright spot were created by the same person.

All we can do now is explore a little bit, hoping to promote the development of related mathematical research.

Shupaiya said hesitantly: "I want to think about it seriously."

He thought seriously for almost half an hour. Professor Frederick and Adam did not disturb him and continued to discuss the relationship between market size and division of labor in a low voice.

In the end Shupaiya decided to test the waters with a few routes first, and Frederick let him make his own decision.

"By the way." Shupaiya was stopped by Frederick before he left, "Do you think it would be profitable to dig a canal around the Cimbrica Peninsula in the north of Hanma City and collect tolls? ?”

Shupaiya was stunned, thought for a moment and then said: "If there is such a canal, many ships will definitely pass there."

After hearing this, Frederick asked someone to bring a map and give it to Shupaiya, and said: "Go and discuss with the maritime merchants. Hurry up. If feasible, I will add it to the negotiation content."