Mediterranean hegemon

At 4:05, all the delayed data were cleared, and the exchange rate was fixed at 5305. But everyone knew that this was by no means the final result. It was just the expiration of the German trading time. The Chicago Exchange in the United States will continue to trade, even if the Mark It is not a key product in the United States, but it still has a lot of reference value - the closing price in the United States will determine the opening price in Germany the next day.

The telegram from the United States confirmed their speculation: the U.S. market fell sharply, and the price was directly hit 5500. By 4:25, the transaction price was already below 5700, and there were very few buying orders...

William tried his best to squeeze out of the crowd of envious, jealous, and manic peers. He wanted to report the situation to Contini, but found that the two of them had disappeared. Taking advantage of the violent situation in the exchange just now, Contini and Antonio hurriedly left. He only left a note and a check for $10,000 to William.

"Mr. William: Thank you for your perfect work today. My impulsiveness and immaturity have caused you trouble. Please help me close a position equivalent to US$4 million at a price of more than 6,000 on the next trading day. This is my impulsiveness. The check is a reward for your work. I wish you good luck and hope to continue to cooperate happily in the future! ”

William took a deep breath, and the hand holding the check couldn't help but tremble - he got the equivalent of 20 years of after-tax salary for an ordinary engineer in one day, what a generous patron!

He knows how much money Contini has made, which may be a level he will never reach in his lifetime, but he is not jealous because the client took a huge risk - as long as the price continues to move up 5 percentage points, the client's margin will be fully evaporation. Only those who can take risks can make profits. The greater the risk, the higher the returns. This is an unbreakable concept in the speculative world.

[Some students said they did not understand the money-making routine. Let me give a simple example: The essence of short selling at 4000:1 is that you borrow 4000 marks from an unspecified counterparty who is optimistic about the appreciation of the mark, and then exchange it for 1 US dollar.

Now you have 1 US dollar in your account. When the mark exchange rate becomes 8000:1 to close the position, you only need to sell 0.5 US dollars to get 4000 marks, and then return it to the opponent. The other 0.5 US dollars is your net profit. Of course, this is only a theoretical income. Actual transactions also involve spreads, handling fees, overnight holding fees, etc. that need to be deducted. The actual net income of this operation will be less than 0.5 US dollars, but it will not be much less, at least more than 0.45 US dollars. 】

Contini’s position price is basically close to 3925, and the position is about 16 million US dollars. If it is settled at a price of about 6000, it is equivalent to earning more than 5 million US dollars in one day! And William has reason to believe that 6,000 will never be the end point of the mark's depreciation. It may fall below the 10,000 mark, but why should customers be so eager to close their 4 million positions? Does he think things will happen again?

Since the client has clearly entrusted him, he can only do as he is told. Of course, he is determined to find a good price to sell without violating the client's wishes and seek the best interests for the client - this is a manifestation of the ability of an excellent broker.

"Uncle Antonio, I made a mistake today, a big mistake..." In the hotel where he stayed, Contini lowered his head and reviewed, "I shouldn't be too confident and impulsive. Things will always change unexpectedly. Don’t overestimate.”

Antonio nodded. Of course he knew what Contini's mistake was. The two had originally agreed to hold a position of 10-12 million U.S. dollars, and in extreme cases it could not exceed 14 million U.S. dollars - this was because Contini had additional Because Contini took out US$50,000 as a deposit, Contini not only broke through the US$12 million mark early, but even rushed past 14 million to 16 million. During this period, Antonio had tactfully reminded him twice, but Contini didn't listen, convinced that the news would come.

Of course the news came, but it came too late, and it was about to close. This was a very dangerous move. Although Contini’s nearly $800,000 in guarantees could hold a maximum position of $20 million, under 25 times leverage , as long as the mark exchange rate rises by another 4%, all the margin will be wiped out. Antonio has even made up his mind that if the situation goes bad, he will order William to forcibly reduce his position in the last five minutes.

Fortunately, God did not let the young master down in the end, and the news that was supposed to come came anyway - which made him break out in a cold sweat, his heart was in his throat, and he was extremely nervous in the last few minutes.

Now that the situation has turned, the news is conclusive, and Contini is sincere in acknowledging his mistake, he cannot hold on to it - after all, he is just a steward, not a boss.

He said softly: "Master, don't blame me for talking too much. You can't make all the money, but you can lose all the money. In this turbulent market, even though you have good trump cards and enough confidence, you must prevent yourself from losing money with one careless move." Everything is lost. I think you should learn from the master and the leader on this point - the march to Rome is actually quite certain, but the leader himself stays in the rear where he can attack and retreat. This is all changed after suffering a big loss. Although young people will inevitably suffer losses and setbacks, I still don’t want you to encounter too many setbacks!”

"You're right, I'm crazy. Speculating in the market can easily make people crazy..."

From speaking at rallies, persuading Grandini, welcoming Mussolini's march into Rome to opening a newspaper, writing "One Doctrine, One Party, One Leader", promoting transportation strategies, and starting with Mark loans, Contini has always been taking risks, almost He gambled with all his wealth, but he won every time, which led to his self-inflated consciousness and the belief that he was omnipotent. Today's crisis that did not break out finally reminded Contini, who felt good about himself, at the critical moment. A handful - if you keep walking a tightrope like this, sooner or later it will fall off.

Antonio looked at him with relief: "Let this matter go away. Don't put too much psychological pressure on yourself. After all, you are the winner today and you should celebrate yourself..."

"It's still early. I won't be sure if I don't have the money."

"Are you afraid that the exchange or bank will not give you the money?"

"If the mark depreciates viciously, Germany will soon restrict foreign exchange flows or even forcibly ban the inter-bank foreign exchange market. At that time, no matter how much money you make, it will only have paper meaning. Getting the money and leaving Germany will be serious."

"Okay, I will arrange it later..." Antonio asked, "Will the mark really continue to depreciate significantly?"

"Definitely! Because the German government will not pay the compensation, and France and Belgium are unwilling to make concessions. It is impossible to reach an agreement in the remaining days of December. After the New Year, France and Belgium will not get the money. They will definitely send troops, and Germany will not be able to resist at all..." Contini sighed, "Once the Ruhr area is occupied, the heart of the German economy will stop beating. In the future, let alone 6,000, even 60,000 or 600,000 marks may not be exchangeable. to $1!”

Contini knew clearly that when the mark depreciated at its most crazily, only 1 trillion marks could be exchanged for 1 U.S. dollar. To buy a loaf of bread, you needed sacks of banknotes. Even the face value of the banknotes was not as good as the price of the printing paper itself. At this exchange rate and inflation, Under the system, the economy has no other outcome than collapse, and more than 99% of the disaster-stricken German people will naturally be disappointed with politicians and bankers.

In other words, although Hitler only came to power in 1932, the foundation of his power was already doomed in the economic catastrophe of 1923. Coupled with the great collapse of 1929, in less than 10 years, the German people suffered The two blows were like a total collapse, like springs. The harder they were pressed, the more powerful they exploded!

The initiator was the French government that insisted on occupying the Ruhr area by force in 1923. The policy adopted by France to suppress Germany not only failed to suppress its opponents, but instead caused the destruction of the Third French Republic. This is in any case a wonderful and self-inflicted Irony realized!

"That's really terrible." Antonio muttered to himself, his face full of disbelief. ?