Mediterranean hegemon
Chapter 40 The Big Short (27)
In fact, Contini is deeply observing the trend of the entire market. The situation in Europe is actually worse than that in the United States. The United States still has at least the previous eight years of prosperity to lay the foundation, while Europe has had problems with its economic recovery in the past few years. Except for Italy, the industrial level is In addition to the rapid progress led by United Group, the economic growth of other countries, especially Britain and France, has been hovering at a low level. Of course, Italy's situation is the best. After United Group announced a donation of 100 million and passed a 9-year compulsory education plan, the Italian stock market quickly Just stabilize.
When the reporter intentionally or unintentionally used the "Italian exception" theory, Contini's expression suddenly became very strange. He didn't know how to explain it and continued with this sentence: It is by no means a normal development for Italy's industry to achieve double-digit growth continuously. credit, but the result of his investment of a large amount of American funds. In other words, Italy's industrial surge is completely a false fire, and it will take a long time to absorb it to become an internalized real strength, but he cannot He was very embarrassed to reveal the secret of this topic. Fortunately, he later got involved with Schumpeter in a hurry.
Joseph Schumpeter is an important representative of the Austrian School. Ten years ago he served as the Finance Minister of the Austrian Mixed Cabinet with the participation of the Austrian Social Democratic Party. He once published the monograph "Economic Development Theory", and in 1926 the second edition was issued. It was significantly revised, and a prominent subtitle was added - "Entrepreneurs' Profit, Capital, Credit, Interest and Business Cycle". He clearly put forward the innovation theory and summarized the "five innovations", so Contini Talk a lot about innovation at press conferences.
When talking about Italian exceptionalism, five innovation models are used: product innovation, process innovation, market innovation, resource allocation innovation and institutional innovation. For example, the development of Bailangduoxi and PVC is product innovation, and the use of natural gas instead of coal to realize thermal power generation units Power generation is process innovation. For example, Italy's overall layout of the European, American and Far Eastern markets is market innovation. As for resource allocation, it is even simpler - the United Algerian company's origin is in Algeria, but its export and delivery place is in Tripoli; in the end, it talks about special What we are talking about is institutional innovation.
The system Schumpeter talks about is a small system - it refers to the re-engineering of enterprises and business organizations. For example, the flat matrix management of the United Group is a typical organizational innovation. However, the president unconscionably talks about the organizational innovation of Fascist and the Three Flags, giving people Americans take political classes and believe that Mussolini "geniusly and comprehensively launched" the fascist cause. The three flags united 40 million Italian people. The United States should also learn from this method and unite closely under the leadership of President Hoover. Around the core government, we should abandon partisan, regional and class prejudices and go to the national crisis together. We should not say anything that is not conducive to unity and should not do anything that is not conducive to maintaining the image of the government. We should work together to strive for a prosperous and powerful America. This is what Hoover heard. The president was moved to tears and took the lead in standing up to applaud the president...
The audience in the audience also responded enthusiastically to this. "Economic Development Theory", which was originally a somewhat difficult book to understand, became a "New York Times" bestseller the next day. The bookstore's advertising slogan was: Zia The top secret of Italy’s exception, highly recommended by President Novo; a classic economics masterpiece that you must read in your life; after reading this book, you will master the secret of economic ups and downs... The success of the limelight even overwhelms the ongoing debate with Schumpeter. , and even John Maynard Keynes, who is still vaguely superior in academic circles - at least Keynes has not yet been able to write the "General Theory".
Everyone was intoxicated in the trap of self-fulfillment and self-prophecy. Only someone below quietly listened to all the speeches and said to his wife: "This is a big liar..."
"Winston, why do you say that?" The woman next to her covered her mouth and said in disbelief, "I think he is right! United Group's success is indeed due to innovation. Look at their Many of the products are well-known by word of mouth..."
"Not at all, this is the opposite." The fat man who just spoke shook his head and said, "I can clearly see the secret of United Group's success. It is that it packages various industries to lend money to Wall Street, and then uses this on the one hand. We will use these loans to develop some industries, use these funds to support other domestic situations in Italy, and then continue to provide financing and packaging to Wall Street..."
"According to you, Great Britain can do it too?"
"Great Britain cannot do that, because Great Britain is a democratic government and will not allow a business group to span multiple economic fields, will not allow one company to control the national economy and people's livelihood, and will not allow this business group to get involved in national power, so our consortiums and companies are One group after another, they oppose each other and check and balance each other. This is an effective means of supervision." Fatty smiled, "His joint group does not even have a shareholders' meeting, nor does it have a board of directors. Except for Ciano, he is just Antonio. Who will supervise and restrict him?”
"But he didn't make any mistakes..."
"How do you know he didn't make a mistake?" Fatty retorted, "With a system like Italy's, would he be exposed even if he made a mistake? He is completely sheltered by the regime, so he has to keep bragging about the regime. Superiority, bragging about the wisdom of the three flags - this is not a political point of his own invention, he is using tricks to say that he is wise."
At this point, the identities of these two people have become clear: the fat man is called Winston Churchill. He comes from a famous British family and served as Admiralty Minister during World War I. Later, he served as Air Force Secretary, War Secretary, Colonial Affairs Secretary, etc. In May 1929, the British held another general election. Although Churchill narrowly won this election, the Conservative and Liberal parties suffered a crushing defeat nationwide, and Ramsay Macdonald's Labor government returned to power. Churchill was forced to leave the government and fell into opposition. In addition to criticizing the Indian autonomy plan proposed by the government and deciding to negotiate with the Congress Party in Parliament, he spent most of his time writing, including "The World Crisis" and "The Crisis of the World", which are already being serialized. My Early Life," and a biography of my ancestor, the 1st Duke of Marlborough.
In order to seek various materials and experiences, he visited the United States with his wife Clemona, preparing to visit people from all walks of life and political leaders in the United States to expand his influence. During his first public appearance in the United States, he was invited to listen to Confucius. The second summit forum was composed of Contini and a group of economists. I thought there was something new, but unexpectedly it was Contini giving a long speech, and his assertion shocked Clemena.
"Dear, I think what you said is a bit alarmist. Although United Group's status in Italy is indeed somewhat special, it does not have such a special status in the United States... Isn't he still thriving?"
"There are two deceptions here. First, he moved a large amount of money back to Italy, which has a very small economy. You would think that Germany would start to recover from its trough with the help of the US$3 billion from the Dawes Plan. Italy's own economy is weaker than Germany's, and the United Group has received even more dollars. How could it not develop? Secondly, his United Group has never been profitable as a whole. Every time he talks about making profits, he talks about investing in new investments. projects will have better prospects. It is essentially an expansion of a Ponzi scheme, but people easily believe his explanation because he is indeed expanding various industrial fields. But if you take a closer look , What else can he expand? Or, what other areas have a lot of room for that he hasn’t entered yet?”
Clemena closed her eyes and thought about it carefully. It seemed that there was no such thing. United Group was involved in all the heavy industries that she had an impression of, and they were all on a large scale.
"So he started talking about the development of southern Italy, the upgrading of agricultural science and technology, the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in the Far East, the Pearl Belt around the Mediterranean, and the Eurasian Economic Belt - all are fucking lies, relying on these How much money do we need to invest? Can a small Italy be successful?" Churchill said with a smile, "The reason why I drew this grand blueprint for you is to get more money from you..."
"But one day things will be revealed!"
"This is his brilliance. He is not like an ordinary Ponzi scheme that eventually collapses. He is promoting the economic crisis and stock market collapse - blowing it up is to raise funds, blowing it up is to default on debts. If you remember deeply enough, he Last year, up to 1.5 billion US dollars of convertible bonds were issued. These bonds were all converted into shares of United Group this year, and now they have fallen by at least half." Churchill smiled, "He first took you 1.5 billion, and then gave it to you. A thing that is said to be worth 2 billion and will continue to rise, and then cause market turmoil a year later, causing the thing to suddenly depreciate to less than 1 billion or even lower, and then take advantage of people's panic to buy it back. You see, like this What did he get after the magic?"
"He got 500 million for nothing!" Clemena exclaimed, "Winston, how did you find out?"
"I can't see anything else, but there are two things he missed: First, when the newspaper criticized him for using United Bank to lend 4 billion to Europe as a transitional loan, you and I are both from Europe. If Europe suddenly has 4 billion more dollars, Funds, will the economy still face a situation of insufficient vitality? So I guess he used the 4 billion for speculation, or at least most of it was used for speculation; second, he signed a contract worth 4.4 billion with great fanfare a year ago. Why would he suddenly break the contract with such a good deal? And break the contract so neatly and indiscriminately, don't you think it's a bit too simple? Unless he has other arrangements, he can get back the 500 million. Now that we see the U.S. stock market crashing, and think back to his previous statement that 300 points is the starting point for the U.S. stock market, there is only one conclusion: he is turning the tide..."
"This is just your guess, right? You don't have any evidence!"
"Yes, of course it's my guess. You know people of my age are used to conspiracies. What kind of person have I not seen before?" Churchill laughed. "If I'm not wrong, there must be a huge conspiracy behind him." Forces are controlling all this, otherwise the American business community and Wall Street would be so cooperative?”
"I kind of believe what you said. You won't expose him, right?"
"Exposed?" Churchill laughed loudly, "I'm not that stupid! Who dares to say such a thing until the last moment? And he is not alone, he has a gang. If I dare to risk the world's disapproval, I promise It will be ugly to die, unless one day I can become Prime Minister, which will still have some status... Of course, it is even more impossible to expect a Labor government. Macdonald is still talking about learning from Italy’s advanced experience. Bah, what does Italy have? Advanced experience?”
"Since you know this, why don't you try it?"
"First, this thing has been played once, so it's unrealistic for the second person to play it; second, Great Britain is too big to be led by the United States, which can only lead Italy; third,... given the current situation in Britain, how can I do it?" Churchill said enviously, "He is really young, I didn't have such a good opportunity when I was young."
"No, you have a good chance too, otherwise how did you become the youngest minister in the cabinet?"
Churchill's old face blushed: "Madam, we agreed not to dig up the past... Who hasn't had a past?"
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