Mediterranean hegemon

After listening to Contini's story, Antonio and Leo understood his basic ideas, and now they have to talk about the most important issue: funds!

Leo first took stock: the 4.4 billion order contract still needs to pay at least 1.3 billion in balance, and the large purchase of bankrupt assets in the United States will cost 600-700 million. At the same time, the cost of supporting facilities and infrastructure to and from Italy in the future is estimated to be 1 billion US dollars. , and at the same time, you need to prepare a capital of 800 million to 1 billion to invest in stocks. All in all, it will take a minimum of 4 billion US dollars. But now the United Group has less than 3.5 billion in working capital, and another 800 million in gold - which cannot be used. In addition, Italy still has a lot of bad debts, so this gap cannot be dealt with no matter what.

Yes, the United Group took away 8.6 billion, but the problem is that more than 5 billion of the 8.6 billion was deposited in the United Group - the current debt ratio of the United Group is very low, only 15%. Of course, losses are still inevitable, at least a year Loss of US$300-400 million.

"I can only leave you 1 billion US dollars, and the other 3 billion have to be found in the capital market..." Contini smiled, "We can be more open this time, and it doesn't have to be the United States. The path of Britain and France can also be followed. "

"After finally clearing all the debts and losses over the years, you are borrowing money again?" Leo muttered dissatisfied, "Now that money is tight, the annual interest rate is more than 5%. If you borrow 3 billion, it will be 150 million in interest a year! And if you continue to spend money like this, you will lose at least 350 million a year, which is 500 million US dollars! The net assets of the United Group are only enough for you to burn like this for 10 years. I feel sad when I see it... Even His Majesty the King cannot be so unrestrained!"

"Who calls Italy poor?" Contini laughed self-deprecatingly, "We can't do big things without borrowing money, so we have to borrow money, and you all know that I have a promise to build an Italian industrial system in 10 years - in fact, this is just This slogan, my real idea is to double Italy’s industry in 8 years! Not only heavy industry, but all industrial output must be doubled, and it must be measured in the same currency.”

When they heard that it was a slogan, everyone heaved a sigh of relief. Suddenly, they heard this sentence, and everyone almost couldn't catch their breath. Antonio joked: "Master, your twist almost made me lose my waist! This year I Demand an increase in medical expense subsidies.”

"That's no problem. You need to take good care of yourself. You will be living in New York this time. I will invite all the best experts from Hopkins Medical School to come for your consultation and give you a full body examination. I will cover the price." Kong Tiny said seriously, "Then move all these doctors back - all the ones with good skills, and put them in the United Hospital in Rome. Ada will graduate soon, and I plan to let her work in the United Hospital as well. It won't work if she doesn't find something to do." of."

Francisco couldn't help but laugh. It is necessary to introduce talents. During this period, many professors whose investments have failed are ready to defect to the United Group. Contini, a science and engineering scholar, welcomes all comers, but the situation is much worse for liberal arts scholars. Only one out of ten applicants is approved. Most of the applicants were professors in foreign languages, archeology, and art design (such as film, sculpture, and painting). There were very few professors in economics, and none in politics, law, society, philosophy, and literature.

"The slogan must be loud. Doubling it may not be impressive enough. Wouldn't it be better to catch up with the Premier League?" Contini waved his fist. "This can inspire people and achieve overtaking in corners!"

Taking 1p as an example, the United States is 110 billion U.S. dollars, Italy is almost 16.7 billion, and France is 20.8 billion. The gap between the two is very small. If the United Kingdom only counts the mainland, it is about 29.5 billion. If Canada and South Africa are included , Australia, India, and New Zealand are added in, the scale is almost over 50 billion. Germany is between Britain and France, with a scale of about over 26 billion.

Simply looking at the data, Italy is of course unprecedentedly number one. Due to France's developed finance, France's industrial output has not been particularly high. It is relatively low among the major powers, but it is still more than double that of Italy. In the past seven years, France's industrial output has not been particularly high. During the year, French heavy industry also achieved a growth of nearly 4%. However, compared with the average annual compound growth of Italian heavy industry of 11.6%, the gap between France and Italy suddenly narrowed. Of course, France's speed is higher than that of Britain. In addition, France still has a certain foundation in agriculture, finance, and light industry, so it can barely maintain its status as a great power.

Germany is actually the country with the second fastest development rate since 1923, with an average industrial growth rate of more than 8%, of which Italian orders probably provided more than 1 percentage point of support. However, Germany was devastated by World War I and the Mark Crisis. Growth can only be restorative growth, which is not considered development, let alone revival. You must know that before World War I, Germany was almost equal to the combined strength of Britain and France (excluding the British Dominions). However, 15 years later, it was still lower than the United Kingdom. , which shows how serious the trauma is.

The UK's growth rate is the worst among the established powers, less than 2.5%. London has lost its status as the world's financial center, and the pound has also lost its status as the world's reserve currency - in the past, the world was denominated in pounds, but now it is generally in US dollars. The price has been calculated, but the British mainland was not damaged in the First World War, and its foundation is solid. In addition, Britain still has many colonies and dominions that can be sheared, and its strength cannot be underestimated.

According to Contini's idea, he should strive to surpass France in 1934-35 and reach about 80% of the strength of the British mainland in 1936-7. There are two important value judgments here. First, during this economic depression, the Italian economy as a whole must maintain and maintain growth. Among them, the decline of the light industry sector is inevitable. The reduction of this part of the output value must be pulled up by the Great Leap In of heavy industry. ; Second, to change the current industrial proportion of Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany are both countries where the proportion of heavy industry is much higher than that of light industry. The heavy/light ratio spans 1.8-2. France's heavy industry is also greater than light industry, but the proportion is 1.4-1.5, while After seven years of struggling with the United Group, Italy's ratio has just reached 1.3. Contini believes that this ratio is low, and it must be at least 1.7-1.8 to be more reasonable.

Of course, there are countries with less than 1. Among the major countries, the proportion of heavy and light industries in China is extremely low, roughly only 0.2. If we remove the foreign-funded enterprises in concessions and treaty ports, and exclude the mining industry, it can barely reach the level of 0.1. . The Soviet Union had the largest ratio of heavy to light industry in history, reaching as high as 4.5 at its peak. Among heavy industries, the military industry dominated the list. The result was simple - it collapsed! Although it collapsed, it is undeniable that it was of great significance to the war. Italy will face a world war in 10 years. It is impossible not to be fully prepared, so even if it borrows money, it must build up industry, especially heavy industry.

You can't say this to others, and you won't believe it even if you say it. Contini can only deal with it as his own goal.

As soon as the goal of "catching up with the Premier League" came out, development expectations immediately became fierce. Several people looked at me and I looked at you, and they didn't know how to evaluate it.

"It's no big deal to surpass France. Apart from France having a larger area and more colonies than us, what other real strength does France have? Don't be intimidated by France's reputation..."

Contini smiled and said, "I have statistics in my hand. Seven years ago, our country's population was a little less than France's. At that time, the leader claimed that the population was 40 million. In fact, Italy's real population was more than 37 million, which was more than 2 million less than France. But Italy The birth rate continues to be higher than that of France, especially after promoting childbirth. This year, Italy's population has truly exceeded 40 million, while France's is 41 million. It is expected that Italy's population will surpass France's in 1932-1933. At the same time, you should also pay attention to this. In fact, although Italy still has more than 1 million fewer people than France, our population structure is more reasonable and younger. The population of teenagers under the age of 29 is the same as France. In 7 years, our total population will be 1 to 2 million more than France. , the young population may be 4 to 5 million more. With such a total population and age structure, is there any problem with the economy surpassing France?

If you look at the United Kingdom, the population living in Great Britain is between 45 million and 46 million. In seven years, the Italian population will be about 90% of the British population. I said that by then the economy will account for 80%, which already shows that our average level is too low. Lower. Therefore, raising this indicator is of practical significance. It not only means that we have reached the level of the world's great powers in terms of total quantity, but also worthy of the great powers in terms of per capita level. Only in this way can the Italian people truly say that they have stood up and revived Rome. Empire is not a slogan! "