Metropolis: My IQ is 300

Chapter 96

Chapter 91: One person faces three thousand questions (seeking support, first)

At this time, Chen Fan even took a glass of water and drank it lightly. After the question was given, Chen Fan looked at the crowd indifferently.

Many people are thinking, maybe this fifteen-year-old boy will be nervous, scared, entangled, etc. These are all uncertain.

But in the same way, as long as it survives, then the teenager will really succeed.

Someone in the audience has already begun to calculate the answer. Chen Fan said: "I think these two minutes are enough for everyone to calculate the answer. This case is the most classic fable in game theory, and it is also a variant of the dumb house. Right."

Everyone nodded. As long as they had studied economics, they had actually heard this fable. The earliest source of this story was that everyone was confused. The source was a very interesting experiment of two people.

It is also a question of derailment and non-derailment.

Everyone has learned the story in textbooks, and now Chen Fan has given these, and seems to be investigating them.

Is this doubting our IQ? We suspect that you look down on us, and we still have evidence.

Chen Fan thought for a moment and continued: "This game theory is actually quite interesting, it is derailment and non-derailment. Everyone has noticed this fable. It happened in a remote mountain village, but if it happened in the middle of a city. Woolen cloth?"

"I think any game theory case needs to be added to the city's plan."

"If everyone disagrees, then I don't have to continue."

Everyone nodded and gave affirmation, meaning Chen Fan continued.

Chen Fan said: “If it’s a city, then what we need to consider is environmental factors, surrounding factors, the first factor, the herd effect, when the first goat goes to drink water and it’s okay, then the second goat exists. Fortunately, I will drink water. Similarly, the third and the fourth are similar to a common phenomenon among students. Three people in the dormitory are in love, and the proportion of the fourth person in love will be special. high."

Everyone knows this, and this is indeed introduced in psychology. ,

Chen Fan began to write the calculation formula on the blackboard.

"The breaking of the balance between public knowledge and action is a process of reasoning and action. If her husband is unfaithful, she will kill him; if there is no evidence that her husband is unfaithful, she will believe him and not kill him. He. This is a woman's strategy.

On the first day after the old lady made the announcement, if only one man in the village was unfaithful, the man’s wife would know after the old lady made the announcement. Because she would make such a reasoning: If other men are unfaithful, she should know in advance, since she doesn't know and at least one man is unfaithful, then the unfaithful man must be her husband. Therefore, if there is only one man in the village who is unfaithful, after the old lady announces it, that man will be killed that day.

If two men in the village are unfaithful, then the wives of these two men will not doubt their husbands the first day, because she knows that the husband of another woman is unfaithful. But when the first day passed, she did not find that the unfaithful man was killed, then she would think that there must be two men who were unfaithful, otherwise the unfaithful man she knew would be killed by his wife that day of. Since there are two unfaithful men, the wives of these two unfaithful men think that she only knows one, then the other unfaithful man must be her husband! ...

Chen Fan wrote very slowly.

Everyone can actually get a rough idea.

But after Chen Fan continued to write, he came up with an interesting meaning.

"Why, choose the elderly? I think everyone actually has the answer."

"It's old-fashioned, feudal."

When someone said it, Chen Fan nodded and said: "Yes, it is the old-fashioned feudalism. We do not discuss the correctness of derailment here. The fable itself is very strange, because under the law, killing requires life. I think, The interesting thing about this story is, don’t forget, the man cheated, who was the cheating? The people in the village, right? It’s impossible for a woman to not know."

"Then, there is a lie in it."

Originally, the stupid dwelling effect in the front can be understood by everyone, but after Chen Fan added this data, everyone gradually began to understand it.

"In fact, 100 men in this village are unfaithful, so the reasoning will continue to 99 days, that is, every woman did not suspect her husband in the first 99 days, and on the 100th day, every woman The woman deduced with certainty that her husband was unfaithful, so a massacre occurred in the village, and all the men were killed by their wives.

Here, when the old lady announces the fact that "at least one man is unfaithful", every woman actually knows this fact (they also know the rules in the village), and the old lady's announcement of this fact does not seem to increase these. Women's knowledge-knowledge about the infidelity of men in the village. But why did the old lady's announcement cause the women in the village to murder their husbands? This is because the old lady’s announcement has changed the knowledge structure of women in this group. Originally, "at least one man is unfaithful" is knowledge for every woman, but not public knowledge, and the old lady’s announcement makes This fact becomes public knowledge.

Chen Fan began to write formulas and algorithms.

"Public knowledge is the traditional concept, but there are feelings and reason here. If I remember correctly, the proportion of forgiveness in the face of derailment is still a lot. Of course, feminist or something, I will not evaluate it. This is easy. I was sprayed, and I didn’t bother to respond or justify.”

Everyone in the audience laughed. When facing the absolute strong man, there is very little feminism.

Because none of the men present have ever encountered feminist rights, because they are strong enough.

It seems that it is the poor who advocated feminism.

Chen Fan continued to write the formula.

"If I assume that I add these external factors to it, then this problem will become more complicated. In fact, everyone doesn't want to be complicated. What you want to do is how to use this problem, right, or expand the example. ."

"The coefficient here is given by myself. Everyone has doubts. I will talk about it later. I will calculate the derailment and murder. I will calculate it for you. You continue to look down.,"

Chen Fan wrote the formula on the blackboard one by one, and finally got a figure of 21%.

The probability of cheating and killing is 21%.

What makes people feel shocked is that Chen Fan gave an interval, the maximum value of the change area will reach 35.5%.

This is different from 32% in economics, because if according to the algorithm of game theory, the number of murders in the village may be 76%.

This has basically been determined, given the definition of rail, a man cheats, a woman will kill her husband.

But the reality is often very low and very low.

Chen Fan said: "I think that the answer I gave is a bit unacceptable to everyone, but it is the case. If anyone has a question, ask at this time. No matter how deep it is, I won't say it."

Is this kid still convinced that his statement is correct?

Alas, someone should have frustrated his spirit.

A man raised his hand and said, “Chen, I’m from the World Trade Organization. I want to ask if, according to your inference, economics itself should consider humanity and sentimental society, etc., then, if those women’s thoughts were instilled since childhood It's polygamy."

0 ···Find flowers·····

Everyone at the scene was stunned, everyone looked at the man.

Chen Fan sighed and said, "I have said it many times. If you don't understand it, don't ask random questions. I said it very clearly, coefficients, and external factors."

The man blushed.

Chen Fan said: "Okay, the idea you mentioned, we assume that there are many countries in the world, and there are such things. I have calculated this ratio, and I tell you that the proportion of these women is 100%. It’s 0.42, you add it to my formula, and the data you get is 33%, which is within 35% of what I said."

Damn it, really?

The man made a quick mental calculation, and it was indeed right.

Fuck, this guy, is this all taken into consideration?

f*ck.

The man sat down, feeling a little embarrassed.

Chen Fan said: "Economics is actually separated from mathematics. Naturally, mathematical calculations are needed. Any coefficient, the ratio you think of, if supported by data, can be brought into the formula I gave, then the number obtained , It will be similar to my current answer."

0 .... 0

Everyone started looking for data and verifying it.

One by one verification under big data, the final ratio is close.

Everyone's backs are tingling.

The accuracy is a bit scary.

This accuracy is a little bit cold and sweaty on the back.

If the accuracy is too high, it means that the new theory given by Chen Fan may be much higher than the ratio given by the Nash equilibrium.

A cup?

Even more.

Thirty-two percent of mathematics workers actually get 32% of the benefits. If this point is maintained, the remaining people who examine the gap between people are actually how to use the Nash equilibrium.

"Everyone knows the 32% point, but why are some people a stock god and some are a commoner? I think the factor involved here is not the balanced use of Nash, but that many people have subconsciously transformed the reality. Some factors have been added. No one calculates the proportion of those added, and no one will calculate these. I think this is the answer everyone needs."

Ha ha ha ha.

Someone laughed frantically and said: "Chen Fan, according to your statement, you have calculated, what is the risk of Buffett buying a stock?"

"Or, Chen Fan, you have calculated how much money you can make by investing in financial management itself? Or, Chen Fan, according to your formula, you can easily make trouble in the stock market, right?"

The continuous questioning made the discussion on the spot calm down again.

Ma Yun said: "This is a mortal situation. It seems that this group of people really came here prepared."

"Yes, this is really ready. Sure enough, people who play economics are all lunatics."

"I really don't know how Chen Fan would explain such a problem."

"Oh, just look at it, I hope Chen Fan will not let us down."

Chen Fan moved his neck, and the clicking sound made the people at the scene a little puzzled. Chen Fan, what is this doing?

Chen Fan said: "If I said, I will win the game? You will not believe it? It is very simple, let's do it. Now you find a stock, and I will estimate the subsequent increase in this stock."

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