My 1999

Not long after returning to the apartment on Fifth Avenue, Jiang Xiaoyang called.

"The party is over?"

"Um."

"How did it turn out?"

"As expected, how could a group of greedy opium dealers refuse the Hanhua Private Equity Fund with huge returns?"

Jiang Xiaoyang: “Including this fundraising, the total size of Qinglong Private Equity Fund has reached US$160 billion, and the total size of Pacific Hedge Fund has reached US$110 billion.

How do you invest such a huge amount of money? "

“It’s still the old way, whatever you voted for before, you will vote for now.”

"The funds are too huge. If the US$150 billion raised this time is multiplied by five times, it will be US$750 billion. Even if the investment is diversified, it will take a lot of time to enter the market.

Failure to invest at that time will delay the investment progress and increase the difficulty of exiting in the future. "Jiang Xiaoyang said.

"Can't we just lower the lever?" Xu Liang said with a smile.

"That affects our returns."

“If the funds are too large, of course it will affect the rate of return. Especially for hedge funds, this feature is more obvious. But there is nothing we can do about it.

Although the global investment market is huge, the opportunity to make huge profits may not come once every two to three years.

Therefore, if Pacific Fund and Qinglong Fund can maintain an annual return rate of about 30% in the future, it will be considered a success. "

Now that he has made enough money, he no longer needs to take huge risks and invest through high leverage in the future.

Xu's focus is no longer on how to make money quickly.

It’s about how to keep the money you already have and will soon get.

"I understand. I will arrange for people from the company to follow up on these blue-blood nobles tomorrow."

Xu Liang: "I thought you would object."

“Entrepreneurs only make limited profits.” Jiang Xiaoyang continued, “Besides, I don’t want to do what happened with the Quantum Fund last time.

I am very satisfied with my financial career even if I only get a 10% return every year. "

Xu Liang smiled and replied a few words.

In the treacherous financial market, stability is impossible.

After hanging up Jiang Xiaoyang's call, Helen quickly called.

"Are you going to put 20% of Facebook's shares into Hanhua's S fund?"

"Hmm. ... Don't worry, most of the equity invested this time is the Facebook equity held by Hanhua. We will take part of it privately held, but not now."

When Facebook last raised Series A financing, Hanhua, as an investor, held 7.69% of the equity.

"Facebook is developing very fast now, and its valuation changes every day. Why do you want to hand over his equity?"

“Simply because it is growing too fast and needs more protection umbrellas.

In addition, the real estate market in the United States has reached its peak. If housing prices fall, it will create a financial crisis that will spread across the United States and even the world. "

“Financial crisis?!”

"Um."

"My dear, are you too pessimistic?"

"Helen, I have never made a financial mistake in all these years."

In order to convince her, Xu Liang prepared to PUA.

Helen stopped talking.

Xu Liang's financial performance in the past seven years has made even the toughest people admit his ability.

“This time I hope you will also put part of Facebook’s equity into Hanhua’s S fund. After you get a certain amount of cash flow, I will let you invest.

The Xu Group in the United States cannot have just one company, Facebook, because the risks are too high. "

Helen thought for a while and agreed.

As a descendant of blue-blood nobles, she knew very well how these old nobles passed down their family wealth.

“Originally, I wanted to wait until Facebook went public to cash out a certain amount of equity and then diversify my investments,” Helen said.

"Your idea is good, but the subprime debt crisis is imminent, and it is not suitable for Facebook to go public in the next few years."

"You can lend me a temporary loan."

Xu Liangdao: "It's okay if it's less than US$500 million, but no more. I will also seize the opportunity of this subprime debt crisis."

"Okay, then I want $500 million."

"no problem."

Without hurting my feelings at all, $500 million is just right.

After all, Helen is not the only woman he has.

——

A few days later.

40 Wall Street, Red Rock New York Headquarters.

Li Jinling held a folder under her arm and hurriedly opened the door of Xu Liang's office.

"Mr. Xu, all the guests who attended the banquet that day have given their replies. This is the statistical fund subscription form."

Xu Liang took it and turned it over.

"These blue-blooded nobles are not that good either. At a glance, they are full of 5 million or 10 million. It's a shame that I left so much credit for them."

Xu Liang threw the documents on the table casually.

To be honest, he felt that he had overestimated the financial resources of this group of powerful people, that's all, they were still aristocrats.

Li Jinling smiled and said: "I'm sure they can't compare with you, but compared with ordinary Americans, they are very rich."

Xu Liang nodded.

Before taking public office, these people were usually corporate executives or lawyers, with high incomes.

After retiring from public office, these people usually serve as consultants to some large companies, which can be regarded as a reward for the "help" provided by large companies to public officials while they were in office.

Big companies will also invite them to give speeches, paid speeches, and for those above the level of congressmen, the one-hour appearance fee can reach tens of thousands of dollars, or even hundreds of thousands of dollars, which is reasonable and legal.

Or write a memoir of the president like George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

Publish a book.

The lower-class Americans like to read these upper-class stories, and the royalties are very high, easily reaching tens of millions of dollars.

Of course, these are all incomes on the surface, and there are too many in secret.

For example, lobbying companies.

There are thousands of lobbying companies in the United States.

It can be seen how huge this market is.

The key is that these people have completed the inheritance of power.

Their children follow the same life trajectory as them. After graduating from Ivy League schools, they go to Wall Street and become lawyers.

Relying on their parents' relationships, their promotion opportunities and salaries are far higher than others, because those big bosses are supporters of their parents.

When these people are in their thirties or forties and have earned enough money, they will follow their parents' old path and enter politics.

While refreshing the resume, inherit political resources, pave the way for the next generation, and maintain the status of the family...

Such a cycle is a bit like the ancient Chinese family.

"Send the information to Hanhua and Hongyan."

Li Jinling nodded and was about to leave when the phone in her pocket suddenly rang. She answered the phone.

"What? OK, OK, I got it. You keep watching."

Li Jinling was delighted and excited after hastily hanging up the phone.

"Mr. Xu, I just received the news.

New Century Financial Corporation issued a fourth-quarter profit warning, and HSBC Holdings announced an additional increase of US$7 billion in US subprime mortgage reserves."

Xu Liang was startled at first, and then laughed brilliantly.

After waiting for so long, is the wind finally blowing?

...

In the trading room of Hongyan Fund, the dynamics of US stocks flashed on the big screen.

"Wow, the stock price crashed directly, falling by more than 35%."

Wu Jing, head of the financial investment department of Hongyan Fund, stood behind him and looked at the K-line chart on the computer screen on the desk excitedly.

"Mr. Xu, New Century Financial has collapsed. The subprime loan market will definitely change drastically. Our investment is completely stable."

Xu Liang did not speak, but the faint smile on his face was enough to explain his mood at the moment.

New Century Financial is the second largest subprime loan provider in the United States. It can also be regarded as the apparent source of the subprime loan crisis and the first domino.

When this card falls, the subprime bonds derived from subprime loans, as well as the CDO, CDS, and ABX index derived from subprime bonds will collapse in succession, ushering in huge value fluctuations.

"Bang, bang, bang..."

The door was suddenly knocked.

"Come in." Xu Liang said loudly.

Chu Gang, president of Hanhua's US office, pushed open the door and walked in quickly, his face full of joy and excitement.

"Mr. Xu, great news!

New Century Financial issued a profit warning, and the mortgage loan default rate soared. The lid can no longer be covered!

Hanhua's bet was successful!"

Chu Gang is usually a taciturn and very calm person, but at this moment he is very exaggerated and has rich body language.

Xu Liang was infected by the ecstasy in him and couldn't help laughing.

"It's really a happy event, worth celebrating!"

This is equivalent to firing the first shot of the subprime mortgage crisis. More companies will definitely release financial reports next.

Not only New Century Finance, but also other financial institutions are not clean.

Behind the loss-making financial reports is the abuse of mortgage loans, and a large number of borrowers are simply unable to repay the loans.

The most important thing is that the direction of the housing market has changed. Once the house price starts to fall, the residual value of the house after deducting the mortgage will become negative.

More borrowers will begin to default maliciously, and would rather bear the credit stain than bear the huge losses caused by the decline in housing prices.

A house that was originally worth 500,000 US dollars suddenly fell to 300,000 US dollars, but the borrower still had a loan of 500,000 US dollars. In this case, I am afraid that 99% of low-income people will choose to let the house be taken away by the bank.

These bad debts are not actually in the hands of the poor who bought houses, so who will be in their hands?

It fell into the hands of investors who bought subprime bonds and CDO debt-backed bonds, including commercial banks, investment banks, funds and ordinary investors.

This is the "systemic risk" that many financial practitioners often talk about.

The price of systemic risk is "economic crisis".

Xu Liang said excitedly: "The wind has just started, and it will take some time before the wind and waves blow completely.

Now everyone should focus on the subprime and its derivatives market, observe and collect information from all parties."

"Yes!"

Chu Gang and Wu Jing nodded heavily.

Today's good news is like sunshine, removing all the dark clouds above their heads.

There is nothing to worry about! Just do it!

The two hurriedly said goodbye and left. When they walked, they felt that their whole body was much lighter.

After the office door was closed, Xu Liang slammed his fist on the table with a "bang", and the big stone in his heart finally fell to the ground.

Around subprime loans, Hongyan and Hanhua have invested tens of billions of dollars in total.

Especially Hongyan, because it prepared early, the insurance premiums it paid in the past two years totaled no less than 3 billion US dollars, and now it is finally time to reap the rewards.

More importantly, now that the situation is gradually becoming clearer, he no longer has to worry about the butterfly effect.

A few hours later, Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein suddenly came to the door.

"Xu, congratulations, you made another good deal."

Xu Liang asked the old man to sit down and pretended to be confused: "Mr. Blankfein, I don't quite understand what you mean?"

Blankfein examined the man in front of him, with no clues in his calm expression.

"Xu, have you read today's financial news?

HSBC and New Century Financial, the two largest subprime loan providers in the United States, have successively issued warning messages. "

Xu Liang nodded slightly and said nothing.

From last year's conflict with the Quantum Fund to now, he has experienced the old man's shrewdness and difficulty in the past two years. He did not dare to relax at all until he understood his purpose.

Blankfein said, "It's a pity" in his heart and smiled.

"Actually, you don't need to be on guard. I have no other intention. I just happened to pass by your company and came up to talk to you."

Xu Liang believed it was strange.

"Mr. Blankfein, you don't need to beat around the bush, just say it directly. As far as the relationship between our two companies is concerned, there is no need to be taboo."

"Haha, I'm being hypocritical.

Okay, let me get this straight. How big do you expect the impact of subprime loans to be? "

Blankfein looked straight at Xu Liang.

“Hanhua, Thiel Funds, and Paulson Funds are the three largest bearish players in the subprime mortgage and derivatives markets, and all three companies have a relationship with you.

I believe you must have your own unique opinions and firmly believe in your own judgment. "

Xu Liang smiled but did not speak.

Blankfein saw this in his eyes and said, "Xu, I won't consult in vain. Goldman Sachs will give Hanhua sufficient rewards."

"What about?"

"For example, we can help you contact various CDS buyers, and you can slowly compare prices until you sell at the most ideal price, and Goldman Sachs will not take a penny from it."

Xu Liang's eyes flickered, and he felt a little admired.

The old man must have sensed danger, but he wasn't very sure yet, so he thought of himself, the biggest short seller of subprime mortgages.

In comparison, if you don't have the memory of your previous life, you will be far worse than others.

He vaguely remembered that in his previous life, Goldman Sachs not only successfully escaped from the subprime mortgage crisis, but also made a lot of money.

When other investment banks were forced to lay off employees due to heavy losses, what was Goldman Sachs doing?

This Xiuer is giving out bonuses to all employees.

What did Goldman Sachs do right?

One thing is to end up shorting subprime mortgages.

Before other investment banks could react and were even buying large amounts of subprime derivatives assets, Goldman Sachs shorted subprime mortgages.

He couldn't remember the exact time when Goldman Sachs entered the market, but he speculated that it would be roughly the first half of this year, because it would be too late any later.

As the CEO of Goldman Sachs, the old guy in front of me must be the manipulator behind a series of speculative actions by Goldman Sachs.

At this moment, he had the urge to lure Blankfein to Hanhua.

After calming down, he realized that it was unrealistic.

"Mr. Blankfein, with all due respect, our fund has been experiencing heavy losses recently, and many of our colleagues are laughing at us. Are you asking me, are you afraid of being unlucky with us?"

Blankfein smiled. He had indeed heard some rumors from above.

However, the internal situation of Goldman Sachs is complicated, and it is not his words. Moreover, Goldman Sachs' proprietary department has bought a lot of subordinated bonds and collateralized debt obligations. Now it is suddenly necessary to turn around, which is not an easy decision to make.

Therefore, he wanted to take advantage of Xu Liang.

Since defeating Soros last time, the guy in front of him has become recognized as a top investor in the world.

No one dared to ignore his decision.

If Goldman Caesar is short on subprime debt, it will be able to eliminate the opposition within Goldman Sachs to the greatest extent possible.