My Age of Investment

In the blink of an eye, the time has come to March. With the cooperation of many parties, Facebook has completed a number of equity transfers. At the same time, with the joint assistance of law firms, accounting firms, and investment banks, it has completed the production of prospectuses.

On March 8, International Women’s Day, Facebook quietly submitted its IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Although Facebook's actions were very low-key, they were caught by the media immediately and launched a series of reports and interpretations.

This big news quickly attracted the attention of countless people in the Internet industry, media industry, financial industry and even the general public.

"As an outstanding female entrepreneur in Silicon Valley, the United States and even the world, Kristina chose the unusual day of March 8 to submit Facebook's prospectus, which has extraordinary meaning. This is a brilliant victory for women..."

Marissa Mayer, vice president of Google, the second most beautiful woman in Silicon Valley, and Kristina’s good sister, answered this when being interviewed by reporters.

As soon as this news report came out, it hit the g-spot of women’s rights. From Silicon Valley on the West Coast to New York on the East Coast, multiple women’s rights organizations and women’s rights activists quickly stood up and spoke out to support Facebook’s listing. Yu also lifted Kristina to the sky, as if she were a new generation of female rights representative!

“The nation’s most self-made billionaire, brackets, including men.”

"The first billionaire in the United States under the age of 30!"

"The most beautiful American woman!"

…

For a time, all kinds of honors and hats were thrown at Kristina.

You know, at this moment, Facebook has not officially completed the final step of the listing bell ceremony, but it has already caused a sensation in the United States. The celebrity effect and shock effect brought by wealth can be seen.

"Christina is definitely a representative of the American dream. When I was her age, Microsoft had not yet gone public, and it did not have such a high valuation..."

As one of the shareholders of Facebook, Gates also boasted about rainbow farts in interviews with the media.

For a time, celebrities from all walks of life came to comment one after another, giving advice and inspiring words.

"Reviewing the miracle of Facebook, from its founding to its listing, it took a total of eight years..."

“The valuation went from zero to US$100 billion, setting a new corporate growth record.”

“Facebook typed out its first code in August 2002 and went online at the end of the same month, welcoming its first user from Stanford University…

In the blink of an eye, eight years have passed. Facebook's social services have become popular in more than 100 countries on five continents. It welcomed the world's 1 billionth registered user a week ago, making it the world's No. 1 social platform. "

…

Among the one-sided praise, there are also some discordant voices, mainly questioning Facebook's valuation.

These seemingly reasonable arguments have attracted a lot of traffic.

For example, an article titled "Why Facebook Is Worth Hundreds of Billions of Dollars" swept the entire Internet world.

“Through the prospectus, we can clearly see Facebook’s financial reports for the past three years.

In 2007, Facebook’s revenue was US$777 million and net profit was US$229 million;

In 2008, Facebook’s revenue was US$1.974 billion and net profit was US$606 million;

In 2009, Facebook's revenue was US$3.711 billion and its net profit was US$825 million.

Facebook's revenue growth rate seems to be maintaining good, but its net profit growth rate is declining year by year. A typical increase in revenue does not increase profits.

If calculated based on the price-to-earnings ratio, Facebook's valuation of US$100 billion corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 120 times.

Such a high valuation, but there is a serious lack of corresponding performance to match it.

Some people may think I made a mistake. Facebook is an innovative Internet company and should be given tolerance and preferential treatment.

So we can compare it to Google, which went public six years ago.

Google's annual revenue in 2004 was US$2.7 billion, net profit was US$268 million, and its price-to-earnings ratio was 80 times.

Comparing the two, the author believes that Facebook's estimated market value is relatively reasonable between US$60 billion and US$70 billion, and one-third of the valuation bubble needs to be squeezed out. "

This article did not circulate on the Internet for long, and Mary Meeker, the famous Internet queen and former chief analyst of Morgan Stanley, came forward and slapped her in the face.

"...Although the data listed are detailed, they made an extremely stupid mistake, that is, they ignored the drag on the net profit of the parent company by the two subsidiaries of itter and spotify.

If the revenue and net profit of the two subsidiaries are not included, Facebook's revenue and net profit growth rates for three consecutive years have been astonishingly high, far less serious than "year-on-year decline", and its fundamentals are even better than those of Google. .

Facebook's business alone can contribute US$1 billion in net profit to the parent company every year, and its valuation starts at US$100 billion.

On the contrary, I feel that the scale of Facebook's current planned IPO is slightly conservative and does not reflect the true value of Twitter and Shengpitian.

If Facebook really launches its IPO based on this market value, when the stock is officially listed for trading, I will definitely buy 10,000 shares for my future pension.

Because in my opinion, Facebook’s potential is no worse than Google’s! "

After Mary Meeker's words, many voices that badmouthed Facebook immediately stopped.

This aunt is very senior in the industry. She once pushed the hardcore Internet company Netscape to go public, pioneered a shining new career on Wall Street - Internet analyst, led AOL's $164 billion acquisition of Time Warner, the deal of the century, and even Morgan Stanley Danli's underwriting of Google's IPO was also completed by her. She has a high prestige in the industry and has good friends with many Internet entrepreneurs and financial entrepreneurs.

Mary Mikel also has a good relationship with Facebook, Kristina, and Xia Jingxing. As early as a few years ago, this aunt had repeatedly praised Facebook in public and predicted that it would be a new Internet giant. .

Xia Jingxing and Kristina naturally reciprocated the favor. When the call options were issued internally, they gave Mary Mikel a moderate amount of rights.

Just when people were talking about it on the Internet, someone suddenly discovered Hua Dian.

Where is Darren? Why isn't it on the shareholder list? Cashed out and exited the company?

This incident quickly overshadowed other topics and became one of the hot topics on the Internet.

…………

…………

"Is something wrong? That guy really cashed out and left? Impossible, right?"

Jobs took a stack of Facebook prospectuses that he had just printed out and looked through them over and over again, but could not find Xia Jingxing's name.

"Let me see."

Larry Ellison reached out to take the document from Jobs' hand, flipped through it carefully, and quickly found the shareholder information disclosure page.

"Christina is the company's largest shareholder, holding 22.58% of the shares."

"Envision Capital ranks as the second largest shareholder and the largest institutional shareholder, holding 19.77% of the shares."

"Axel is the third largest shareholder, holding 5.83% of the shares."

"The Rockefeller Family Office and the Enoch Trust Fund are tied for the fourth largest shareholders, each holding 5% of the shares."

"Zhiyuan Yang is the fifth largest shareholder, holding 4.11% of the shares."

"Xiaoquan is the sixth largest shareholder, holding 4.04% of the shares."

"Andrew and Principal John are tied for the seventh largest shareholder, each holding 3.75% of the shares."

"Gaoling Capital ranks as the eighth largest shareholder, holding 3.29% of the shares."

"Microsoft is the ninth largest shareholder, holding 2.08% of the shares."

"Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are tied for the tenth largest shareholders, holding 1.78% of the shares."

"dst Digital Sky Technology, ranks as the eleventh largest shareholder, holding 1.66% of the shares."

"David Ferro, ranks as the twelfth largest shareholder, holding 1.05%."

"Snow Lake Capital, Tiger Asia, and Global Investment are tied for the thirteenth largest shareholder, holding 1% of the shares."

"SoftBank is the 14th largest shareholder, holding 0.95% of the shares."

…

The option pool and employee stock ownership platform hold a total of 9.85% of the shares, individual investors Jim Breyer and Peter Thiel each hold 0.3%, LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman holds 0.15%, and Zynga Xingjia founder Mark Pincus holds 0.08% of the shares.

Larry Ellison read it word for word several times, not missing every detail. However, he still couldn't find Xia Jingxing's name, and murmured to himself: "Where are you going?"

"Where else can he go? His shares must be hidden among the holdings of Vision Capital."

The speaker was Cohen. He had just returned from Europe and rushed to San Francisco without stopping to discuss with several allies how to deal with Xia Jingxing.

"Why do you think his shares are hidden in Vision Capital? What's the reason?"

Cook looked at Cohen calmly. The latter was the financial consultant they hired from Wall Street. Behind him was the behemoth Jewish Capital Group, who also had a lot of grievances with Xia Jingxing.

"If you do some research, you will know that many political and business families on the east coast hold fund shares of Vision Capital and indirectly hold shares in Facebook."

Cook's eyelids suddenly twitched, "A lot?"

Cohen replied calmly: "Anyway, as far as I know, there are quite a few people.

In short, I don't really believe that Darren Xia will really sell all the fund shares. He should still have some left in his hands.

In addition, I guess that the new Facebook shareholders such as the Rockefeller family, Enoch Fund, and Gao Ling Capital are all closely related to Darren Xia. "

"It seems that his illegitimate son is called Enoch, right?"

There was a touch of sarcasm on Larry Ellison's lips, "It's really generous. His illegitimate son holds more shares than the puppy who started the business with him."

Cohen smiled and said, "It's normal. Chinese people always value family ties."

Cook hesitated for a moment, then asked: "Then we still take action? Darren Xia no longer directly holds equity in Facebook.

If we want to severely damage Facebook by attacking its IPO, we may not be able to achieve the expected results. "

Hearing this, everyone fell silent. Dai Lunxia's move caught them off guard.

Because Facebook's ownership structure has become complicated, I am afraid only he knows how much equity Darren Xia holds in Facebook.

"No matter how many there are, we must act quickly."

Jobs glanced at everyone and said viciously: "We have been waiting for a year, long enough, and we have been waiting for this moment.

Dai Lunxia has made all of us here suffer too much in the past, and we must settle this account with him! "

Cook looked at his old friend who was blinded by hatred, thought about it, and decided to try to dissuade him.

"Steven, Darren Xia did this and made many of the tricks we prepared ineffective.

On the surface, he has almost no connection with Facebook except that he founded it.

Big labels such as information security and taking advantage of Americans cannot be pinned on him. "

Jobs said with an angry look on his face: "Then let the matter of the illegitimate child out, and let the people in the United States and the world see what kind of person he is!"

As soon as these words came out, everyone fell silent for an instant.

Others can still stand on the moral high ground when they say this. But you, Steve Jobs, seem a bit unqualified when you say this.

Cohen sneered, then struck a match, lit a cigar, and smoked it beautifully.

Seeing his behavior, everyone turned their attention to him.

Cohen first blew out a big smoke ring, and then said calmly: "Steven, you are too anxious. Do you think the illegitimate child can defeat Darren Xia?

This is a matter of personal morality, and it will not cost Dai Lunxia’s life! "

Larry Ellison had a different view on this and retorted: "You are wrong. It is true that personal ethics issues cannot be affected by Darren Xia, but that child was born by Christina."

Seeing his friend's support, Jobs responded: "Yes, it's okay for Darren to be fooling around with other women. The key heroine is none other than Miss Kristina, the so-called Queen of Silicon Valley and the pride of America today.

You think, if Facebook's two founders, the largest individual shareholder and the largest institutional shareholder were involved in such a scandal, what would be the consequences? "

Cohen shook his head and said: "The listing of Facebook may be affected to a certain extent, but it will definitely be listed normally. You have to believe that there are several powerful forces behind Facebook.

Under the overwhelming momentum, any obstruction is doomed to be in vain. "

Jobs sneered: "So you mean the plan is canceled and that's it?"

“Definitely can’t cancel!”

Larry Ellison suddenly changed his color and said: "Do you know how much effort I made to deal with Darren Xia?

It is absolutely impossible to just let it go. Darren Xia must pay some price. "

Cohen bit his cigar and glanced at the two of them. He felt that these two reckless men had lost their most basic sense in the face of hatred.

If Dai Lunxia was really that easy to deal with, he wouldn't have been beaten.

The last time he took action, he was immediately met with a fierce counterattack by Dai Lunxia, ​​which almost got him involved.

This time, just by looking at Facebook's ownership structure, we know that Dai Lunxia is wary of being attacked so easily.

"If you take action now, you will only expose yourselves and lose a valuable sneak attack opportunity.

Because there are too many forces behind Facebook, any attempt to obstruct Facebook's listing is self-defeating. "

Jobs looked at Cohen and said coldly: "We are only targeting Darren Xia and Kristina."

"That's it for targeting Darren Xia. If you target Kristina, you're targeting Facebook. There are too many people protecting her now.

As far as I know, Ao Guanhai and more than half of the senators indirectly hold shares in Facebook. "

Jobs fell silent for a moment. Is the United States really a free world?

Bullshit freedom of speech, try touching the cheese of the powerful?

Larry Ellison is also very politically sensitive because he is relatively close to the military.

At this time, the two of them were reminded by Cohen and instantly calmed down a lot. However, because Xia Jingxing had offended them so deeply, the bad breath stuck in their chests was difficult to swallow, and the obsession for revenge was biting them all the time. heart.

"well!"

With a sigh, Larry Ellison punched the table hard. He felt that Xia Jingxing was like a hedgehog now, unable to find a place to attack the opponent.

Jobs was also a little uninterested. He saw Xia Jingxing finally showing his soft belly, but the other party immediately put on another layer of armor and had nowhere to start!

Compared to the two of them, Cook's idea of ​​revenge is not that strong.

If Deloncia had not brought down Steve Jobs, it would not have been his turn to come to power. It would not be an exaggeration to say that he was a great benefactor.

Of course, if he could influence the development of Fuxing Industry by cracking down on Facebook and Xia Jingxing, he would also be happy to see the results.

Cohen saw that Jobs and Larry Ellison were both in a low mood, so he began to promote his plan.

"This time Dai Lunxia is obviously prepared, let's avoid his sharp edges and endure it for a while.

Facebook's shareholders have complex sources, and they are not all of one mind at all.

Just watch, as soon as the listing lock-up period expired, all shareholders immediately ran away.

If there were no more people protecting Facebook, we wouldn’t have to be so timid anymore.

Don't look at Facebook's current performance. That's because Twitter, Soundpot, and other dragsters haven't started to seriously hinder it.

I have analyzed that once Facebook’s performance changes, user growth slows down, and shareholders sell off in large quantities, Facebook’s end will come, and our opportunities will come. "

Cohen's plan had some selfish motives. As a financial professional, he naturally wanted to take revenge in the field he was best at and make some money to make up for the shortfall from the year before.

Sniping at Facebook's IPO would bring him almost no real benefit other than to vent his bad temper.

Moreover, Dai Lunxia is at the peak of his powers now, and he doesn't want to meet him head-on for the time being. Wait, the opportunity will always appear.

But he miscalculated one thing. He could afford to wait, but Jobs couldn't!

"No, we still have to take action and create as much trouble as we can for Dai Lunxia."

After all, Jobs turned his attention to his good friend Larry Ellison. He had always wanted to be strong in his life and made this gesture, which undoubtedly overcame many psychological difficulties.

Adding some trouble to Xia Jingxing was the greatest pleasure in the last period of his life, bar none.

－－－－－－Digression－－－－－

To correct a bug, Vision Capital's shareholding should be 19.77%. It was written as 17.77% in the previous article. I forgot to acquire the 2% old shares held by employees. The shareholding ratios of other people and institutions are correct. I calculated it twice. , the final sum is 100.1%. The 0.1% should be caused by rounding, so please ignore it.