My Age of Investment

It has been a month since the mobile version of WeChat was launched, but Penguin seemed to be invisible to the sword that was already reaching its throat. It has not made any response, leaving the entire industry and countless observers holding small benches ready to watch the show. Very surprised.

Therefore, when the major announcement of Penguin Holdings Group's placement of shares to raise HK$12.5 billion was released, it was like a bomb dropped into calm waters, immediately attracting attention from all parties.

The drunken Dr. Qingniu, who had just finished his verbal battle with Zhizhiguo and was waiting for the hearing of his reputation lawsuit, did not miss this hot spot. With a stroke of his pen, he wrote an article titled "A fateful battle to determine the supreme throne of China's social network". The article "War" was quickly published and then posted on Weibo.

Reprinted by millions of fans and major media, this article quickly swept the entire online world.

"Penguin owns China's largest software application QQ, which claims to have 1 billion users. After squeezing out all the water, the number of effective users is definitely not as many as claimed, but there is still a big difference between 300 and 400 million effective users. China has the most users. The online platform actually deserves its reputation.

In addition, Penguin Group also owns QQ Space, Friends, Penguin Weibo, QQ Music and other platforms with hundreds of millions of users.

Through these, we can clearly see that a social empire built around QQ is rising in Pengcheng in the south.

But unfortunately, there is also a new social empire in the northern capital.

As we all know, the Overseas Holding Group evolved from the upgrade of Xiaonei Network. After more than five years of development, this company, which was pieced together by Xia Jingxing's acquisitions, has become quite strong.

According to my personal statistics, Hainei Holdings has a total of 500 million user platforms including Hainei.com, Weibo, Tudou.com, Kugou Music, and Hainei Games. It has developed into a force that cannot be underestimated in the industry.

In addition, they also have some star Internet products that are operating well, but due to their late launch, the number of users is slightly smaller, such as Haipay, Domestic Literature, Domestic Mailbox, MOMO Voice...

Of course, there is also WeChat, which has been in the limelight recently.

According to industry insiders, WeChat’s user base has exceeded the 50 million mark and is rapidly moving towards the 100 million mark.

It is no exaggeration to say that this product is definitely the sharpest sword that Haihai Holdings has forged over the years. With just a slight push forward, the sharp blade can be inserted directly into the heart of the old enemy Penguin, shaking the penguin's hatred. Dominance in the social segment of instant messaging.

For the Penguins, WeChat is definitely the enemy force that poses the greatest threat to their status.

Recently, Penguin quickly completed a huge financing of more than 10 billion Hong Kong dollars. What does this mean? This shows that Penguin has begun to attach great importance to the upcoming battle of fate, and is accelerating its preparations for war with intensive preparations and financing.

I predict that in the next one to two years, two Internet companies that can be regarded as princes in China will engage in a decisive battle of fate.

The winner can take all the chips on the poker table into his arms and become the only social giant in the Chinese market;

The loser, not to mention leaving sadly, will at least lose the ability to compete for hegemony and become a second- or third-rate Internet company.

Looking back at the battle between the two companies in the past few years, Penguin has basically lost more than it has won, and has lost important battles such as gaming and Weibo. Penguin's sluggish stock price in the past two years has been affected by these losing battles.

Up to now, Penguin's peripheral positions have been captured one by one by Haihai Holdings. Penguin has reached the point of no retreat. The back is the most fertile territory of the empire - QQ. If it retreats, there will be no way to continue the fight. capital.

This also means that this cute and cute penguin has to fight hard. If he doesn't give it a try, he will be set up to stew the goose in an iron pot.

But in my opinion, the Penguins have no chance of winning this big battle.

The core business encounters a major crisis, and everyone at the top and bottom must fight to the death.

Secondly, in terms of the number of users covered by the product matrix, Penguin is still better than domestic holdings. Moreover, QQ has experienced more than ten years of development, and its brand and influence are far better than just its birth. WeChat for half a year;

Thirdly, in terms of financial resources, since Penguin chose to introduce Li Yikai as the company's major shareholder, it has made up for its biggest shortcoming. The Li family, Asia's top wealthy family, can still compete with our Asia's richest man... "

…

This article by Drunk Qingniu deeply analyzes the core contradictions between Overseas Holding Group and Penguin Holding Group, and predicts that this will be a key battle that will determine the pattern of China’s social network. At the same time, he also analyzes the hard power of both parties from various angles. , soft power, it can be said to be a hot article with extremely comprehensive knowledge points.

As soon as the article came out, not only many media rushed to reprint it, but also the reputation of Drunken Green Bull increased to a higher level.

After reading this article, some netizens gradually began to pay attention to this looming social war, and posted comments online and participated in various polls.

Strictly speaking, netizens are the key force that determines the outcome of this battle.

Through online comments and various polls, we can clearly feel that the support for QQ is still huge, while WeChat's support rate has temporarily fallen into a disadvantage.

This also just confirms Drunken Green Bull’s point of view. QQ’s status is not so easy to shake, and Penguin may not lose in this decisive battle.

The noisy public opinion has not affected the preparations of the two companies for war. Penguin is silently holding back its big move, while Overseas Holdings is holding a mid-year summary meeting.

Zhongguancun.

In a conference room, Xia Jingxing was sitting at the top, listening to the work reports of the executives responsible for various business fronts.

“…WeChat’s mobile users are growing very fast, almost as fast as the shipment speed of Android smartphones in the Chinese market.

Every time an Android phone is sold in the Chinese market, it means another WeChat user. "

Zhang Dalong looked at Xia Jingxing with a smile, paused, and then said: "In addition, our mobile user retention rate is also very high. Once users use WeChat, they can no longer refuse all the things this application brings to their work and life. convenient.

We have called up the WeChat backend data and found that the number of friends of most WeChat users is increasing rapidly, and social networks connecting tens of millions of users are being woven at a speed visible to the naked eye.

In addition, key operational indicators such as user usage time and number of messages sent are also steadily improving.

All this shows that WeChat is growing vigorously!

At present, the biggest negative factor restricting its growth rate is the shipment volume of smartphones!

Compared with the PC terminal, the mobile terminal is the main position where WeChat truly exerts its strength and highlights its product features. "

Xia Jingxing nodded towards Zhang Dalong and said with a smile: "Thank you for your hard work! I am very satisfied with the current achievements of WeChat. If we can reach the goal of 100 million registered users and 50 million mobile users before the end of the year, I will More satisfied.”

Zhang Dalong smiled slightly, knowing that Mr. Xia was reminding him again.

WeChat’s mid-year goal was to reach 50 million registered PC users. In fact, he and his team did not successfully achieve this goal.

However, Mr. Xia did not blame him and the team, but postponed the assessment until the end of the year.

This fully reflects Xia Jingxing's trust and love for the WeChat team, but it is also a heavy pressure.

Zhang Dalong promised with a serious expression, "The WeChat team is confident that we can achieve 100 million registered users! It's just 50 million mobile phone users, which is a little bit stressful."

Xia Jingxing understood. Zhang Dalong was still talking about the low shipment volume of smartphones.

This is not Zhang Dalong shirking responsibility, but a real problem facing WeChat. Even though China’s smartphone shipments have grown rapidly, from tens of thousands of units shipped per month three years ago to now It ships three to four million units every month, but for WeChat, this growth rate is still too slow.

Because the penguins are coming soon!

If WeChat cannot build a good position before Penguin launches a counterattack, for example, to capture 100 million users first, the battle will no longer need to be fought because there is no chance of winning.

Xia Jingxing frowned and said, "I know this goal is difficult, but we must achieve it without any discount, otherwise we will not have the capital to continue fighting with the penguins.

Although Fuxing Mobile and Android China have made a lot of efforts to promote smartphones in the Chinese market, smartphone coverage cannot be improved in a year and a half. This requires a process.

At the same time, this also means that WeChat cannot win a quick victory and must engage in close combat with Penguin.

To engage in close combat, WeChat needs a strong body—that is, the number of users, the number of active users, and the social relationship chain behind each user.

Transferring social relationship links to another platform requires users to pay a huge cost, such as time cost. This is destined to be a very difficult process and requires WeChat to work hard. It is also our biggest disadvantage compared to Penguin.

A large part of WeChat's current users come from MSN. Our hoe has not yet really dug into the foundation of Penguin, but this is something that must be done sooner or later.

What I envision is that WeChat will complete the first phase of the "basic consolidation mission" this year, which is to consolidate the basic market, and next year it will continue to launch the second phase of the combat mission and reach out to the vast number of QQ users.

The short-term goal is for WeChat and QQ to coexist, with users logging in to and using both platforms. However, the long-term goal, the third phase of the battle plan, is to seize all users’ usage time and let QQ gradually become hollow until it no longer exists. any threat to us. "

Zhang Dalong nodded slightly, with a look of contemplation in his eyes. He already understood that Mr. Xia adopted a step-by-step offensive method. He first circled a basic market, and then focused on the... users in the Penguin Bowl, and then the user usage time. .

The three-step strategy can be said to be complementary to each other, linking one link after another, and no problems can occur in any link.

Only when all the above strategic goals are achieved can this battle for the social throne be considered won.

But the entire war process will definitely be extremely difficult, and may also be very long, because Penguin is not dead, so how can he stay in place and let WeChat swing his hoe.

Zhang Yong suddenly interjected: "Then we have to hurry up. There are less than five months until the end of the year. If we want to successfully complete the first phase of the combat mission, we must squeeze out all the existing smartphone users in the Chinese market." .”

Zhang Dalong nodded fiercely, "Yes, yes, Sybian, Windows

Several niche mobile WeChat applications such as obile have been developed and will be available in the app store this month. Although they are all mosquito legs, they still have to be eaten. "

Xia Jingxing smiled. Compared with Android, which is rapidly advancing in the Chinese market and even the international market, Symbian and Microsoft are like elephants, moving slowly, but they will not die in a while, and they still have a small market share.

For example, the N8 mobile phone launched by Nokia this year is a capacitive screen multi-touch mobile phone based on the Symbian system. It also canceled the slider, physical keyboard and other designs that it was proud of in the past. The appearance design has finally become a new generation of smart phones. Closer.

Windows

Let’s not talk about obile. Microsoft’s brand appeal and influence are there. Samsung, Motorola, and HTC are all designing and launching new models equipped with Microsoft mobile phone systems.

"What about the iOS version?" Xia Jingxing suddenly asked, "Do you have any ideas?"

Zhang Dalong and Zhang Yong were both silent, especially Zhang Yong. His mood was very complicated. He wanted to say something but didn't know how to say it. After all, the benefits of reviving the mobile phone were also the benefits of the boss. It was just a pain for those who were charging ahead. Domestic holding group.

Xia Jingxing glanced at the two of them, taking in their worried and worried expressions, and after thinking for a moment, he comforted them: "There is no need to be afraid of them over there at the Wisdom Fruit.

Just give Cook another month to vent his anger. This time he should have been injured internally and will need some time to heal.

But he can’t block WeChat for half a year, or even a year, right? Then I will sue Zhizhiguo for unfair competition and abuse of market dominance. "

Zhang Yong pondered for a moment and then explained his point of view: "Even if he wants to retaliate against Haihai Holdings, Cook should not dare to do it too openly.

What we really need to worry about is that Zhiguo is secretly playing dirty tricks, and it is a long-term and normalized dirty trick. For example, it will block us at the critical moment of application upgrades and impose overbearing terms on in-app purchase revenue. "

Xia Jingxing waved his hand, "The matter of in-app purchase is far away, let's not think about it for now, but other things are still very likely to happen.

Wisdom Fruit is like a cancer growing on China’s smartphone market. Once they occupy 10 to 20% of the market share in China, things will become even more difficult. "

"Will it have such a high market share?" Zhang Dalong asked with a surprised look on his face.

Xia Jingxing was silent. If it had not been for the emergence of Fuxing mobile phone, Smart Fruit might have reached the altar in China with the help of iPhone 4. It would be sooner or later that it would gain one-fifth or even one-fourth of the market share in the future.

Faced with such a huge user base of Smart Fruit mobile phones, Pony and Penguin in their previous lives, even though they had achieved extraordinary status in China's Internet and technology industries, still refused to turn against Smart Fruit completely.

But he is different from Xiao Ma. The dispute between the Wisdom Fruit and WeChat in his previous life was just a small friction and did not involve a dispute over core interests. The fight died down after a few words, with neither party losing anything.

But in this life, the Wisdom Fruit has a powerful rival, Fuxing Mobile, watching from the side. He is not afraid of starting a "choose one" battle, with WeChat charging in front and tearing up the Wisdom Fruit, while Fuxing Mobile can follow behind and pick up the loot.

Of course, the prerequisite for starting a war is that WeChat must establish its dominance in instant messaging, otherwise it will easily cause internal injuries.

The reason why he ordered WeChat to challenge Zhiguo this time was entirely because Zhiguo took the lead in stirring up trouble. From the bottom of his heart, he was unwilling to involve Wechat in this big fight at this stage. He would have to fight if he wanted to. I'll have to live on my back for a few years.

However, being ignorant will not make Wisdom Fruit stop blocking and discriminating against WeChat. Peace is not something you can ask for, it is all fought for. Only when Wisdom Fruit realizes the "complexity" of the Chinese market will it be honest and honest. Business.

After understanding this, Xia Jingxing decided to change his strategy. As long as Zhizhiguo didn't take the initiative to cause trouble, WeChat and the Overseas Holding Group should not take the initiative to provoke them. Both sides should maintain a certain degree of restraint and maintain the fragile peace.

In addition, strictly speaking, Overseas Holdings and Fuxing Industrial Group are independent companies with different shareholders and different shareholder interests. If Overseas Holdings is often used as a weapon to attack Wisdom Fruit, this company's Shareholders will certainly be dissatisfied and internal conflicts will arise.

Then, Xia Jingxing shared his thoughts with Zhang Dalong and Zhang Yong.

When the two of them heard that the war with Zhizhiguo was going to end, they were very happy.

Zhang Dalong said with a smile: "If Smart Fruit no longer troubles us, WeChat and other applications of the group can fill the gap on the iOS side, so that our products will not have any disadvantages compared with competing products. "

Zhang Yong thought more deeply and asked: "WeChat and Weibo have played the role of enemies of wisdom fruit this time. Will they agree to maintain peaceful relations with us?"

Xia Jingxing smiled and said, "You need to have a good talk about this. As long as Wisdom Fruit recognizes the reality and is sensible, he will not refuse this precious opportunity to recuperate.

WeChat needs a few years of peace, and Wisdom Fruit also needs to further establish a foothold in the Chinese market.

They showed off their power in the Chinese market. What was the result? As long as Cook is not confused, he will definitely forget his hatred for a while.

He is different from me. I don't care about killing one thousand enemies and losing eight hundred to myself, but he is a professional manager who must be responsible for shareholders, stock price, and failure to develop the Chinese market. "

Zhang Yong nodded slightly, but he soon noticed the subtext hidden in Xia Jing's jargon, and couldn't help but ask: "Does that mean that when both sides have a firm foothold in the future, will the war rekindle?"

"Of course I hope that the two sides will always maintain peace and that everyone can be happy and get rich, but it's hard to say about Wisdom Fruit. Who asked you to deal with me as your boss." Xia Jingxing spread his hands with a look of helplessness.

Zhang Yong felt that his boss was knocking him, so he quickly explained: "Mr.

Xia Jingxing said seriously: "Okay, okay, there's no need to say more about this matter. Let's focus on the present first, and leave the future matters to the future."

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