New Shun 1730

Liu Yu was basically satisfied with Li Huan's answer.

Li Han felt that Liu Yu was testing him.

In fact, I was really testing him.

On the whole, Liu Yu is not too optimistic about the prince who initiated the rice ban in Hubei.

In this era of change, Dashun needs someone who "understands that the difference between Dong Shi and Xi Shi is not a frown, but a difference in appearance; Dong Shi can easily learn Xi Shi's movements, but it is impossible to learn Xi Shi's appearance." Pan” people.

This principle seems to be the same as that which even a fool should know.

However, in fact, there are really not many people in Dashun who can really understand this truth.

At the very least, the prince didn't know that the premise of many of Liu Yu's radical policies in Songsu was shipping and Nanyang rice, Northeastern sorghum and Ezo wheat.

Know its beauty, know why it is beautiful.

Know what it is, know why it is.

Food is actually quite magical.

If we talk about the concept of "per capita" - for Dashun as a whole, the concept of "per capita" is actually a nonsense concept. Per capita, when logistics, infrastructure, transportation and other capabilities are not up to standard, Nanyang's rice , and cannot be compared to the concept of per capita wheat in Henan.

But if we look at a province, the concept of per capita is very important and meaningful.

The prince carried out radical reforms in Hubei, although perhaps in the eyes of later generations, they were not very radical. It is nothing more than allowing or encouraging farmers to grow cotton and sesame seeds. But in fact, in this day and age, allowing farmers to change rice into mulberry, wheat into cotton, and bean sprouts into sesame is a very radical reform.

In short, the prince’s reforms in Hubei touched the bottom line of Hubei’s “per capita grain possessions”. As a result, Hubei's grain output is completely unable to reach the red line of 450 kilograms per person per year.

Food is too magical.

For other things, maybe if they are in short supply today, then I won’t use them today and will use them when the goods arrive.

As for food, it cannot be said that it is scarce or expensive today, so what if I don’t eat today?

To use Malthusian economics to explain, a shortage of 10% of food does not mean that food prices rise by 12% to reach the same sales as before; rather, it will rise to the point where 10% of people starve to death and cannot afford to buy food. rise.

Malthus said that if you use "orthodox economics" to explain food, you will definitely cry. A shortage of 10% of food will definitely not mean that food prices have increased by 12%, but that people will starve to death if food prices have increased by 10%.

This can be regarded as the most basic "economics" thing. Obviously, the prince carried out reforms without any basic "economics" common sense.

According to the prince's opinion, it is definitely more cost-effective for farmers to grow cotton and sesame seeds and exchange them for money than to grow grain, and then use the money to buy grain. Wouldn't it be wonderful?

The reality is that growing cotton and sesame seeds in Hubei directly led to the food shortage in Hubei, forcing the prince to issue a "rice ban" policy, prohibiting Hunan and Sichuan rice passing through the Yangtze River from leaving the country, and all was detained in Hubei.

For Dashun.

The real logic of the traditional "emphasis on agriculture and light on business" does not lie in "finding ways to get farmers to convert rice into mulberry."

In fact, the real problem faced by the traditional logic of "emphasis on agriculture and light on business" is always: farmers want to change rice to mulberry, and they really want to, and they actively want to change rice to mulberry, but the court must first find a way to force the farmers not to change rice to mulberry. , are not allowed to grow tobacco, or even poppy.

Farmers are not fools. They need the court to tell them. In fact, growing cash crops is more profitable?

On the contrary, many people regard farmers as fools, which is why they have the illusion that farmers are fools and therefore do not know how to grow cash crops. On the contrary, the reality is that farmers are not fools. They do not need to be "guided" by anyone above them. Farmers will spontaneously Choose to grow cash crops. On the contrary, the government has always had to find a way to get farmers not to plant cash crops, but to grow food in this era where "a yield of 150 kilograms per mu is considered high throughout the world."

Obviously, the prince did not understand even the most basic logical core of "emphasis on agriculture and light on business". Counting on him to carry out reforms is totally useless.

As Li Han and Liu Yu said, people come later and things happen later.

In this era of change, everything is changing. Only later people can come up with a method that is in line with the "Tao" based on the actual economic conditions of the later society and use basic, even if it may be distorted and wrong methodology, instead of copying the "technique".

The story Liu Yu told Li Huan is a metaphor of taking three.

Compare atmospheric transpiration to taxes.

State power must act on behalf of heaven.

Let the rain fall where it is needed, instead of causing droughts and floods, and eventually the cycle of transpiration and rainfall collapses.

Li Han recognized this.

As for the next one, which is to rely on investment immigration and then tax profits from reclamation to feed immigrants, this is another problem of "making a boat for a sword" and " imitating others."

Obviously, Li Han noticed something was wrong as soon as he heard it, and pointed out that this idea can only be justified on the premise that there are still billions of acres of uncultivated land in Jianghan, Henan and other places in the Central Plains. .

The actual situation in Dashun is that there are billions of acres of land that can be cultivated in Fusang and the Southern Ocean.

Therefore, this idea of ​​increasing value through reclamation does not apply to Dashun.

But it can only be the other way around.

Reclamation is not regarded as a method that can increase value through self-circulation, but as a kind of "leftover material" from industry and commerce.

Many theories should be combined with reality, specific situations, and specific analysis. Don't turn "Tao" into a "technique" that is copied and copied.

Even if Saint-Simonism and Bonapartism are problematic in themselves. But even these problematic things do not need to be combined with reality and sinicized.

Take the core, not the skin.

The most feared problem of Dashun is to seek the sword by the boat and to imitate the ugly woman.

For example, the enclosure movement in Britain must be understood. The three major benefits and three minor benefits of the enclosure movement:

The three major benefits: the determination of exclusive land ownership, the population stripped of means of production required for the development of industry and commerce, and the increase in grain production in the agricultural revolution are the basis for the development of industry and commerce.

The three minor benefits: convenient taxation, ensuring sufficient raw materials in the woolen war, and capital began to accumulate in the gentry, making it convenient to invest in national bonds and industry and commerce.

For Dashun at this time, these three major benefits and three minor benefits are all useless.

Exclusive ownership was established as early as the end of the Tang Dynasty. There was no shortage of people needed for industrial and commercial development, so that short-term workers needed several kilograms of corn flour a day. The popularization of the two-year three-harvest system in North China made Dashun's per-acre yield the highest in the world at that time. The remaining three small profits are not to be mentioned.

Unless Dashun has reached the next round of industrial revolution, the per-acre yield has been greatly improved, and the mechanization level is in place. The key is that without an industrial population of 300 million, 500 million, 700 million or 800 million, it is impossible to achieve further development. Only then can this set of things be considered.

Another example is the collapse of the French East India Company.

It must also be clear that the reason why the French East India Company has been half-dead is because of the local industrial substitution policy left by Colbert, which made the French East India Company "constrained by the local industry on the road of comprador."

If a few more lacquerwares were imported to affect the domestic carpenters, the Minister of Finance would talk to them; if three more cotton cloths were imported, the Secretary of State would issue a policy to fine those who wear cotton cloth. If it is still half-dead, it would be really unreasonable.

Because of this, Dupleix thought of the method of collecting land tax in India to increase the company's profits.

To collect land tax, you have to raise soldiers.

India is too far away from France to raise a French army, so Dupleix wants to recruit Indian soldiers.

However, Dashun, for various reasons, "wanted to be a comprador but couldn't". At the same time, Dashun was not short of people, nor was it as far away from India as France. It even relied on the previous Trojan Horse plan to immigrate more than 100,000 Guiyi troops loyal to Dashun in Ceylon who "suffered from the suffering of the Dutch and the crime of relocation".

So, should Dashun completely inherit Dupleix's ideas in India and rely on collecting land taxes and raising Indian soldiers to supplement its troops?

These are all problems that will lead to imitation if you are not careful.

Now Liu Yu took the practical idea of ​​Na San's utopian theory to ask Li Li if he thought it would work. The purpose is to see if Li Li can understand that the utopian methodology is acceptable, but the practical ideas must be combined with the actual situation of Dashun.

The so-called methodology of Na San, or the general idea of ​​making XX great again, was clearly stated by Lao Ma: use the youth version of the idea to solve the aging version of the reality. Use the past methods to solve the current problems.

The methodology is like this.

And the big pie in the sky is at least aimed at the interests of small farmers, the interests of workers, labor-capital relations, and solving universal poverty.

No matter what, Na San finally slapped himself in the face: on the one hand, he said that increasing the wealth of the country is the only way to solve the problem, and after taking office, he fought Crimea and the Second Opium War; on the other hand, he said that he wanted to solve the problem of universal poverty, develop industry, and industry and agriculture are the foundation of the country, and on the other hand, he created a carnival of French speculative capital for 20 years, and finally became usury capitalism.

The key is that using this set of "old ideas to solve new problems" methodology has derived a whole set of "seeking welfare for the whole people" that at least sounds feasible.

This is what Liu Yu said, a rather enhanced version of the third. If you want to take on this historical unconscious tool to break all the superstitions of old things, you must at least have certain skills.

You must have the ability to "find problems".

You must have a perverse methodology for "analyzing problems". Although it is perverse, it at least recognizes the material world.

And you must come up with a "problem-solving" idea that is actually bullshit, but sounds acceptable to everyone and seems to be achievable in the future.

Of course, it seems that this type of person can only have one-third of the ability to find problems, analyze problems, and solve problems.

But, this is already quite difficult.

Among the people in the Dashun court, those who can "find problems" are rare.

As for those who can have a perverse methodology for "analyzing problems" instead of just bullshitting at the step of "analyzing problems", they are even rarer among the already rare people.

Li Xi could understand the story of "Dong Shi Xiou Pin" told by Zhuangzi, and could understand that "one can frown and hold one's heart, but cannot change one's appearance", which can be regarded as an "incredible, incredible" figure in the court of Dashun.

At least, compared with the mainstream dispute before Dashun, that is, the dispute of "from inside to outside" or "from outside to inside" over "orthodoxy", it is far superior.

And since it is Dashun's business.

Then, it is impossible not to take the world as the perspective, not to take the huge unified country as the perspective, and it is even more impossible to ignore the existence of 300 million small farmers.

Apart from these three points, in Dashun, any plan to move forward can be directly regarded as bullshit.

And now, Liu Yu and Li Li have talked about a "prominent school" today.

In fact, that is to say, when the times have come to this point, when Dashun has come to this point, how to move forward, or where the future is, in terms of "constructing the future", this "prominent school" can at least be regarded as a "theoretically feasible" plan.

No matter whether it is realistic in practice or not.

Just say that if something cannot be done even in theory, it is even more impossible in practice.

And Liu Yu has proposed a future concept under the subtle influence of these years.

This future concept is based on the concrete goal of "developed industry and commerce, accommodating a large population, and small farmers finally getting rid of absolute poverty".

However, the goal is there, the destination is there, and it is very certain.

How to go?

This "prominent subject" can be regarded as a path that "theoretically seems to be able to reach that goal" and takes into account the world, the great unification, and the 300 million small farmers.

However, obviously, this path may work. But it will definitely not work by relying on reform and reform.

To a certain extent, a coup d'état is also a special kind of "improvement" and "reform", and it cannot be a revolution that turns the world upside down.

Li Xi's conditions may be able to quell the rebellion and clear the court. But if Li Xi is asked to issue a manifesto, raise an uprising army, have the 18 riders hibernate in Shangluo, equalize the land, and perpetually rent the land, then he definitely does not have the conditions or the ability.

He not only saw the unreliability of the reclamation self-circulation plan, but also understood whether Liu Yu's Fusang immigration relied on reclamation or on industry and commerce and mining. So in this regard, Liu Yu felt that Li Xi was also somewhat capable.

Without waiting for Liu Yu to continue asking, Li Xi took the initiative to say: "In fact, the policy of immigration to Fusang that the Duke has implemented is essentially to recognize the invisible hand. Taishigong said: The world is bustling with people coming for profit, and the world is bustling with people going for profit."

"The Duke used the profits of Fusang's gold and silver mines to let the invisible hand control capital and flow to shipbuilding, immigration, and migration. This is to take the right path."

"And mergers, buying land, collecting rent, and lending are actually also controlled by the invisible hand."

"If so, if you want capital to flow to industry and commerce...can you restore the king's land law, so that those who cultivate the land can get the land, and they cannot buy and sell it?"

"Also, Yan Xizhai's "30-year redemption" method makes the gentry and landlords have money in their hands. But on the one hand, they can't buy land and collect rent, and on the other hand, the beginning of lending is mostly derived from renting. In this way, if he doesn't invest the gold, silver, grain and rice in his hands in industry and commerce, where can he invest?"

"This world is bustling with people, and people can't buy and collect rent. People come for profit, and the world is bustling for profit, which is the so-called invisible hand, and it is natural. Since we recognize that this way follows nature, why not use means to prohibit the sale of land? "

"And force capital to flow to industry and commerce. And strictly control it, so that capital cannot flow back from industry and commerce to agriculture for at least 20 to 30 years?"

"This is what I think. Small farmers cultivate, and the per-acre yield is not too low. If industrial and commercial capital flows back to agriculture, it will not increase the per-acre yield, which is what the Duke said, and it does not increase the total national wealth. "

"On the contrary, if industrial and commercial capital flows back to farmland, it is more like... This farmland is more like the financial industry in Amsterdam? Nowadays, those who buy land, hoard land, and collect rent rarely improve the land, but just use the land to earn interest. "

"Because the interest rate is high, if 4 taels of silver per mu of land, rent 46, and produce one stone per mu, the annual return rate is at least 15%. "

"Moreover, the land is always there, and it will not disappear like the bankruptcy of industry and commerce, so the principal will never move."

"In addition, in recent years, the influx of silver, the reduction of taxes by the court, and the reduction of labor service in local areas due to the reform of the grain transport system have led to an increase in land prices and grain prices. In this way, not only interest is generated, but the principal is also increasing."

"Such a high rate of return is really shocking. Even the most profitable business of the British is plantation, and the annual return rate is only 10% at best. And this dynasty can borrow 3% of the court debt in Amsterdam. Therefore, it would be strange if this capital did not flow to farmland."

"Since the Duke said that the total national wealth is not gold and silver, but grain, rice, cloth, iron, etc., then, now that capital uses farmland for financial speculation and interest, it is not an increase in the total national wealth."

"According to the saying of "The Wealth of Nations", I think , prohibiting land transactions may be a solution. "

"Of course, this also hinders the flow of capital to the land, and hinders those who really want to improve the land and build water conservancy projects."

"But, if you ask me, North China now has three crops in two years, and if there is no major disaster, the yield per mu is more than 150 to 60 kilograms. Even if the capital is not purely for speculation, but for the development of land production, then I don’t think the yield per mu will increase much."

"On the contrary, it is said that a few people improve the land and most people speculate on the land."

"Such things are difficult to manage and cannot be distinguished."

"Why not, cut it off with one size fits all!"

"If you cut it off like this, of course, there is no possibility for large capital to improve the land. But, more importantly, capital cannot speculate on the land and has to invest in factories, mining, iron smelting, infrastructure, canals, roads, shipping, shipbuilding, glass, cement, textiles and other industries."

"In other words, there is a loss of three points of agricultural profits, but ten points of industrial profits. At the same time, because there is no investment with a 15% return rate such as buying land and collecting rent, the capital has nowhere to go, and the interest rate will drop day by day.

"When the interest rate drops, we can issue a lot of national debt. It will be much more convenient to build roads, cultivate land, set up large factories, or open large mines."

"Otherwise, the gentry and landlords, with money in hand, will think about lending and mergers. Even if we issue national bonds to build roads, they will not agree if we only give 5% interest."

"As for the popular school of thought, the idea of ​​equalizing land taxation to cause immigration and reclamation, if it is implemented, it will inevitably cause a big movement in the whole country, and it may become a new policy. Secondly, the gentry will not agree. If the whole country moves, it will be a great obstruction. Thirdly, if one place starts, it will be ineffective if it only relies on agricultural taxes; if it is to be effective, the whole country must move."

"Therefore, the compromise is not as good as forced redemption in the developed areas first, and developing industry and commerce. Hire workers to get money and go overseas on their own."