New Shun 1730

That is the real despair, not the so-called despair of the people's lack of wisdom. The despair of the equal distribution of land in the Yan-Li School is purely material despair. Seeing the population growing rapidly, no matter how you calculate, you feel that there is not enough land and food.

Compared with this despair, the so-called lack of wisdom of the people and the so-called lack of wisdom of the masses are like the sadness of a young girl in autumn.

Because, even if the Dashun was "revelation" fifty years ago, the people's wisdom was greatly awakened, and they were more radical than the French Revolution, talking about the empty slogans satirized by Saint-Simon.

Then, those ecological collapse areas, saline-alkali areas, and Yellow River flooding areas, can they immediately live the life of the farmers in North Carolina at this time, who are satirized by British gentlemen as "lazy, sunbathing on sunny days, drinking at night, feeding the dog with corn they can't finish, hunting on the riverside grassland when they want to eat meat, and having berries when they want to eat fruits"?

The world is material.

Even those European Enlightenment thinkers who regarded China as an ideal country could not understand the despair of the Dashun elite decades ago.

There is a saying in later generations that China feeds a quarter of the world's population with 9% of the world's arable land.

Before, the population of Dashun actually accounted for more than one-third of the world, and now it is about two-fifths.

Before Liu Yu engaged in colonial expansion, the arable land in Dashun was actually not as much as in later generations. But the population was not one-quarter, but one-third.

Moreover, the problem of Dashun was really special.

For example, Songsu can engage in trade, so-called "men farm and women weave, women's work was originally a secondary industry, but gradually became the main industry, no rice is produced, and cloth is exchanged for it."

But for example, Shaanxi, Hunan, Hubei, Henan and other places. Even if you trade, what is the price of transporting rice from Siam to Shaanxi and Henan?

It's not that commercial transportation and free trade are wrong. It's that the social consciousness born in such a social existence in places like Western Europe with many seaports and inland seas will be biased when understanding the imperial provinces of Dashun that span thousands of miles inland.

The ancients said, why not eat meat porridge?

Then, in the Dashun Dynasty a few decades ago, there would often be jokes like "Why don't Gansu make rhubarb for Siamese rice" that are comparable to "Why don't you eat cake" - even if the transportation and logistics level of later generations is a problem, there may be a vegetable shortage, let alone now?

Or, think about it the other way around. If trading is so easy, then the IQ of those officials in the Ming Dynasty who passed the exam with thousands of troops and horses was so low that they actually opened up salt to merchants just to transport grain to the border?

Continuing to the Dashun Dynasty, some of the great Confucian scholars who experienced the war in the late Ming Dynasty really experienced deep despair.

When Liu Yu was alive, he ridiculed the Yanli School, saying that they still claimed to be a fucking Confucian scholar, and claimed to be proficient in the six arts from the outside to the inside, and that they wanted to be a Confucian scholar in all arts of agriculture, industry and hundreds of arts, and that "number" was one of the six arts. When talking about equal distribution of land, they couldn't even do basic math and were just making up data.

But if you think about it carefully, I'm afraid it's because they really understand that agriculture, industry, and hundreds of arts can all be called Confucianism, and they really understand the numbers of the six arts. It's just that they understand too much, so they find despair after giving up, and can only choose to make up numbers to support their idea of ​​"equal distribution of land is the most benevolent policy in the world."

After all, in history, the spread of this school to the south has a certain relationship with the escape of a person who knows astronomy in the school who was hunted down by the Qing court's lackeys to the south. It seems unreasonable to say that this school is just talking nonsense and saying that agriculture, industry, and hundreds of arts must be learned to be a Confucian. To understand astronomy, you must know mathematics; and from a later point of view, their school is indeed good at agriculture.

They even had an international perspective very early. As early as 1736, they wrote "Poems of Worry about Western Barbarians", worrying that Westerners would first preach and convert, and then suddenly rebel and follow the story of Luzon.

It seems unreasonable to say that such a school really doesn't understand mathematics and calculates the per capita land area by the basic division of population and cultivated land.

Thinking about it now, I am afraid that it is purely because they understand too much, so the data does not support their ideas at all. They want to implement equal distribution of land, so they have to make up numbers, and even make some weird words like "150 acres of inferior land, after 30 years of careful cultivation, it becomes superior land, and can be divided into three more people".

They are desperate because a school that claims to be a true gentleman, a Confucian scholar, and a master of the six arts is neither a gentleman nor a master of the six arts on the issue of "equal distribution of land is the most benevolent policy in the world", and is making up data.

I can only say that for a group of heretical Confucian scholars who "take suffering as pleasure and die in extreme suffering", it is really desperate to finally make up data, make false accounts, and make up arithmetic.

This despair is like this:

If someone now clearly tells them that in the future, relying on breeding, fertilizers, air nitrogen fixation, hybridization, genetic modification and other technologies, the per-acre yield can exceed 1,000 kilograms. They may not be desperate.

The problem is that no prophet told them that the future would be like this. According to their understanding, if they rotate crops and plant them for three crops in two years and two crops in one year, the maximum yield per mu is three shi, and that's even if they irrigate the fields.

With a little calculation, it's impossible not to be desperate.

This kind of despair of the Dashun elites decades ago is the so-called "grand narrative" despair that has nothing to do with individuals.

Desperate: Seeing the Yellow River flowing southward for hundreds of years, rising and often bursting, we all know that sooner or later the Yellow River will burst northward and reselect the river course to enter the sea from the north. This means that about 250 million mu of arable land in Huanghuai and North China may be salinized and ecologically collapsed, causing large-scale land degradation and a disaster that lasted for decades and affected tens of millions of people. Historically, the salinization and land degradation problems in Huanghuai lasted not for decades, but for hundreds of years. The respectable county magistrate in the later article "My County Magistrate Father" was busy with sand control, alkali treatment, drought resistance, and tree planting, which was the aftermath of the Yellow River bursting northward a hundred years later.

Desperate: No matter how you calculate it, you can see that the population is rising, and the per capita land area is getting smaller and smaller. Sooner or later, it will reach universal poverty where it is unlikely to be full even if the land is completely equalized.

Desperate: Even if the land is equalized, the population is still rising, so what will happen in the future? After all, the land is getting less and less.

This kind of despair is the despair of the 18th century.

In later generations, the industrial revolution gave birth to the proletariat. The proletarian revolutionaries, with their eyes on the future of industry, will not despair, because they know that industrialization can solve the problem of not having enough food.

Before, a group of elites among the landlords who had taken the lead had never seen the industrial age, and it was impossible for them to believe that they could produce 1,000 kilograms of grain per mu. They were confined to the times and ultimately despaired.

When Liu Yu appeared, when Dashun began to explore the world and catch up with the tail of the Age of Discovery, the problem was still not solved.

To build the border and to relieve the people's suffering are two different things.

To build the border... people can give birth to their own children.

For example, Australia at this time, with the purpose of "building the border" and "occupying", 200,000 people are enough. After 200 years, even if they give birth to their own children, they can give birth to tens of millions of people.

Or North America at this time, with the purpose of "building the border" and "occupying", 1 million people are enough. There are fur traders and ginseng dealers in the Appalachian Mountains to carry and hinder their own immigrants. During the buffer period of a hundred years, there are still tens of millions of people.

But, to relieve the people's suffering is two different things.

If the vision of "a hundred acres of land and a family of five" can also live a good life is to be achieved, it means that Dashun should relocate 250 million people at best. Even if the diversion from Northeast China, Southeast Asia and the Western Regions is taken into account, at least 100 million people must be relocated overseas.

This is not the same difficulty as "strengthening the border", "occupying" and "colonizing for living space".

It can even be said that it is two orders of magnitude less difficult - the premise is that you have to regard the people in the central and western regions as compatriots, or at least as people.

Business does not produce goods, but is just a carrier of goods.

Business will not produce food, let alone arable land.

Currency is half an equivalent, not the item itself.

The world is material. And it is certain that this is not a real world where five loaves and two fishes can feed a thousand people.

Indeed, Europe began to accelerate after 1800, and France finally eliminated the last famine in 1855.

Is this just the power of technological progress?

The problem is that France had 300 million mu of arable land and 30 million people in 1855.

Shandong now has a population of 30 million, but only 90 million mu of arable land.

In other words, 100 years earlier, in 1755, Shandong Province had a population of 10 million, and there was no disaster of the Yellow River diversion. In the absence of large-scale famine, would there be a large-scale famine?

30 million people, 300 million mu of arable land, no famine, is it something worthy of praise?

On the other hand, the best agricultural conditions and the best arable land in the whole of Europe, 300 million mu of arable land by the mid-19th century, the Taiping Army Zhong Wang used steam engines and ships to smash the Yama demon, and Chile's saltpeter mines had been mined on a large scale, and only then did they feed 30 million people and finally no famine, are you proud?

In other words, if Dashun now ascends to the technological level of 1855, when France held the World Expo, according to this ratio, Dashun needs 3 billion mu of arable land to ensure that 300 million people will not starve.

Let alone technology, it doesn't appear by clicking a button, it needs accumulation.

Even if the technology level of the Paris World Expo era is reached instantly, 4 billion mu of arable land is needed to ensure that there is no famine.

The question is, does Dashun have 4 billion mu of arable land?

In other words, if Dashun now has 4 billion mu of arable land, will the previous elites despair? Will they choose to accept Liu Yu's reform ideas?

Changes always occur when too many contradictions have accumulated and the old system can no longer hold up. Who has nothing to do and has a habit of change when they are living well?

Dashun does not have 4 billion mu of arable land.

As for agricultural technology, the use of machinery is definitely far behind the world's first level in the year of the Paris World Expo, but the per-acre yield... is actually just that.

Many people are simply bad in order to fabricate that Britain's technology is advanced, and they tamper with the data - in the original statistics, it is clearly written that the wheat yield per acre was 18 bushels in 1750 and 27 bushels per acre in 1850. In order to show the advanced technology in Britain, the acre was quietly replaced with mu. Maybe they calculated that if it was replaced with mu, the wheat yield per mu in 1750 would be 1,000 kilograms, which was a bit ridiculous. So they quietly changed 18 to 8, which seemed more credible. But in 1850, it was still retained as 27, which means 1,500 kilograms per mu.

In 1850, the average yield of wheat per mu was 1,500 kilograms. What did humans do after that? In the past 170 years, humans have regressed? You know, 170 years later in 2022, Henan's summer grain wheat yield will be 900 kilograms per mu, creating another bumper harvest, which will be a big news event. Why do you make up data here? The average yield of wheat per mu in Britain in 1850 was 1,500 kilograms?

If you don't make up data, don't deliberately tamper with it, or use your brain a little, even if you can distinguish wheat seedlings from leeks - of course, this requirement is actually quite high - it is easy to draw a terrible conclusion:

If the average yield per mu of Dashun at this time reaches the average level of 1860 when the first industrialization was completed in Britain, then Dashun may starve to death about 100 million people.

This is easy to calculate.

There was an important reform in the British Agricultural Revolution, from the three-field system to the Norfolk rotation system.

The three-field system was before the agricultural revolution.

Plant wheat in the first year, plant peas in the second year, leave the land fallow in the third year, and plant wheat again in the fourth year.

The Norfolk rotation system was introduced after the agricultural revolution.

In the first year, wheat was planted, in the second year, turnips were planted (the kind of turnips that Lin Daiyu ate in Gao E's Xia Jier's sequel, a relative of mustard), in the third year, barley or wheat was planted, and in the fourth year, donkey beans were planted.

In other words, under the Norfolk rotation system, the average yield of wheat per acre in 1860 was 1,500 jin, which was equivalent to about 250 jin per acre - Britain did not have three crops in two years, nor two crops in one year, nor three crops in one year.

In this way, in Britain in 1860, the annual average yield of the staple food - turnips were not inedible, but who would take mustard as a staple food - was only 125 jin per acre.

Of course, 1860 might still be a little "underdeveloped".

In 1900, the average yield of wheat per hectare in France was 18HL, a strange unit, HL is hectoliter. According to the minimum density milling standard of 76 kilograms per hectoliter of wheat, it is approximately converted to 2,736 jin per hectare.

One hectare is 15 mu.

The average yield of wheat per mu is 182 jin.

As evidence, considering that the unit may be wrong, another data is [In 1910, the wheat yield in the Paris Basin was 24 quintals per hectare, which is about twice the average yield per mu].

This quintal is 200 jin, which is very standard and does not need to be converted; and hectares, quintals, etc. are all in the metre system. After the French Revolution, the first set of metric units was established, which used water and the earth's meridian as the standard unit without religious and cultural conflicts. This hectare is also very standard.

Convert from this.

24 times 200 and then divided by 15 is about 320 jin.

It can basically confirm the previous average yield of 182 jin per mu.

That is, in 1910, when World War I was about to start and planes were flying in the sky, the average yield of wheat per mu in France was only about 180 jin.

Well... that's the case.

So, if you look at the data, that's the case.

But if we abstract "agricultural revolution", "technological revolution", "first and second industrial revolutions" into something labeled and put it into our minds, we will make many mistakes of "labeled thinking and imagination".

Once labeled, many wrong ideas will arise: label, and then imagine that Europe was about to fight a war at that time, and the yield per mu must be hundreds of kilograms?

Remove the label, and you will find something very scary.

Simply put, according to the per mu yield of wheat in France in 1910, the population and cultivated land of Dashun at that time...

If they really do the Norfolk four-wheel system, the enclosure movement to engage in animal husbandry, and the planting and burying this year and the planting and raising cattle and horses next year...

If Dashun is at this chicken level, let's reduce it according to the population of 100 million.

What do these data mean to Dashun?

This means that even if Dashun had a "prophet", even if it used saltpeter, sulfuric acid, phosphate and other nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers to conduct experimental fields...

If industrialization really reaches the level of Harper's fertilizer plant, or the level of industrialized production, it is pure nonsense.

Impossible.

Of course, it is not difficult to find a group of craftsmen to make a simple, no-cost generator or something.

As for building a fertilizer plant, let's go for 100 years.

Of course, agricultural technology does not rely only on fertilizers, but also on water conservancy, good varieties, scientific planting, etc., etc.

But fertilizer is definitely a key link.

In other words, Liu Yu used natural "fertilizers" such as saltpeter to paint a big picture for Dashun. In other words, he painted a big picture that industrialization is a beautiful future.

But in fact, he himself knew that industrialization could not be achieved by a "prophet". It is impossible to appear within a few decades.

So, in fact, the only option left in reality is immigration and reclamation.

The agricultural revolution in Western Europe was not a revolution in Dashun, but a regression. At least at this time, it is 100% certain that it is a regression.

Dashun knows how to farm. If they are lucky enough, the silt left after the Yellow River floods can actually exceed the average per-acre yield of French wheat in 1910. The simplest way is to interplant wheat and peas, and calculate the average with three crops in two years.

In other words, the Western European agricultural revolution is completely useless to Dashun; and the industrial revolution, even if it is caught up to 1910, the per-acre yield of cultivated land is just so-so; unless it can catch up with the level of Germany in 1913, it is pure nonsense, and there is no hope for at least 30 or 40 years. It would be too scary to really catch up with the level of Germany in 1913.

In other words, if there is no immigration and reclamation, even if the first industrial revolution breaks out, Dashun will still not have enough food.

And the huge "despair" of insufficient food and population growth is easier to understand - in other words, if Dashun is internal, even if the first industrial revolution is now completely completed, Dashun will still face the problem of insufficient food. Moreover, when those people were "desperate", they didn't even know what the first industrial revolution was.

Indeed, the first industrial revolution greatly promoted the development of productivity.

The question is, can textile factories make steamed buns? Can steel mills make rice?

If not, then for Dashun, the motivation for the first industrial revolution is not that great - I am already the world's number one in cotton production, and I have forced Europe to issue various administrative orders to play dirty, so where is the motivation for the first industrial revolution?

Liu Yu's distorted theory of industry and commerce gave the Dashun people an answer to this question.

The answer is what Li Li and Liu Yu talked about in secret before Liu Yu ran away:

Build railways, build ships, and build infrastructure.

Let grain grow legs and run from overseas to the Central Plains, so that the concept of "per capita grain ownership" has practical significance.

Let people with long legs run from the Central Plains to overseas. Grain and farmland do not grow legs. If it does not come to me, I will go to it.

And building railways, building ships, and doing infrastructure are the motivation for Dashun to carry out the industrial revolution... in the name of justice.

In other words, if Dashun's industrial revolution wants to get the support of the elites of the old era, at least those who still have the world's heart to benefit the people and the world, it can and can only start with heavy industry.

Because, in addition to getting the support of some elites produced in the old era, it also needs the support of the emperor.

And the emperor will not care about the spinning wheel driven by the steam engine, but he will care about the water wheel driven by the steam engine to irrigate the fields.

A steam engine is a steam engine. It is just a cow, a horse, a sluice, and a windmill.

A spinning machine is a spinning machine.

A bag of urea and two pounds of good seeds definitely brought more shock to the old era than a watch.

Because from top to bottom, the most feared thing in the mind is the food problem.

The fundamental guiding reform must eventually hide industry and commerce in the food problem.

So, now, has the food problem of Dashun been solved?

No.

It can be said that the various problems facing Dashun now, according to Liu Yu's statement, are essentially food problems.

Including the abolition of the currency gate, whether land can be traded, whether to equalize the land, etc., etc.

In the future, it is a question of migration, immigration, and industrialization, which one to go first and which one to go later.

In reality...

It's still what Lao Ma said [Distribution itself is a product of production... A certain form of participation in production determines a specific form of distribution, and determines the form of participation in distribution]

The form of production is social relations such as feudalism, capital, etc.

These specific forms complete distribution in the form of possession of means of production, land rent, tribute, wages, etc.

The abolition of the currency gate, whether land can be traded, whether to equalize the land, etc., are themselves [distribution].

For example.

Hubei's current hand-woven textile industry, through manual labor, in social production, through their cotton cloth, has been allocated some grain, salt, etc.

So, now your Songsu mechanical textile industry, with the advantage of overseas raw materials, has taken away the [allocation] of these hand-woven textile workers in Hubei.

Then do you pay them money to let them buy grain and salt?

Judging from the current situation in Dashun, don't even think about it. When Liu Yu reformed and moved the trade center from the Pearl River Estuary to the Yangtze River Estuary, hundreds of thousands of boatmen, porters, compradors, Guangdong embroidery weavers, etc. lost their jobs. Instead of taxing and compensating from the new beneficiaries, they chose a cheaper way - Kusanagi.

The issue that Dashun is arguing about now can actually be understood as follows:

Some people want land in the interior. If you have money, spend money to buy it. Anyway, it is normal to allow buying and selling, land deeds, loans, and small farmers to go bankrupt easily.

Some people also want land, but don't want to pay rent, but all of it is theirs except for taxes. If the court doesn't give, then you should do justice for yourself. You, Li Zicheng, can do it, but I can't?

Some people want the inland market. The inland market is not empty. Since Hubei can have a textile industry, they obviously have to sell the cloth. But you people are too backward. Why don't we use the advanced Indian cotton yarn and steam engines? We want to represent progress and eliminate backwardness, but we will not give compensation and appeasement for basic survival guarantees.

Some people think that these machines have seriously harmed their survival. You say I can find a carpenter to make a loom, or save money to buy an iron wheel treadle machine, but how can I afford a steam engine and a loom? Since I can't afford it, then let's resist together and smash it. No one can have it, otherwise they will starve to death.

And so on.

Finally, is there a "compromise" plan, that is, the country's politics itself can be regarded as a compromise product under the irreconcilable class contradictions. Is there a compromise plan?

Now, there are so many classes and contradictions within Dashun.

Small farmers, tenant farmers, landlords.

Artisans, contractors, big commercial capital.

Hired workers, factory owners.

Large financial capital that is floating outside and the established oligarchs.

Who is the soft persimmon here?

Who is the easiest to pinch?

Who can move towards the future?

This can basically be regarded as the problem that Dashun has to face if it wants to continue reforming, and it is also the root of the dispute.

In addition, there is the problem of Dashun's land system.

And because the real power that the imperial power of Dashun relies on is capital, military aristocrats, practical school industrial and commercial forces, navy, and colonial interests.

In other words, the people who think it is necessary to reform are this group of people.

Then this problem finally evolved into the simplest choice:

Is it to pinch the small farmers?

Or to pinch the inland tenant landlords?

If you choose to pinch the small farmers, you will completely relax internal and external restrictions, and capital, cheap goods, and commercial capital lending will pour in together by railroads and steamships.

Just suppress the resistance of these 300 million people.

If you choose to pinch the tenant landlords, you will have to have a wave of crazy changes, and you will not hesitate to fight a war between the East and the West.

The old forces and traditional forces will resist with an unprecedented unity to ensure the social conditions they need for survival - the rebellion will be led directly by scholars.

No change?

Li Xi knew very well that once he died, Dashun would be completely in chaos.

He wanted to fight for his children and grandchildren.

Therefore, recalling the "prophet" was actually Li Xi's choice to use Liu Yu's body to make a choice: to crush the small farmers or to crush the tenant landlords.

Either one is fine.

Because Liu Yu was a "prophet" and not a thinker, his words were full of contradictions and his actions were mixed with black and white.

For example, Liu Yu's extremely reactionary policy in Songsu at the beginning - women came to work in the factory, and the salary was paid to the parents-in-law, husband or parents half, instead of sending people to the family to promote gender equality, personal freedom, and women can also work to support themselves.

There are many directions for interpretation of this matter.

It's okay to say it in a positive way.

It's okay to say it in the opposite way.

It's the same for crushing small farmers or landlords.

There are corpses to be buried.

Li Xi asked people to transport Liu Yu's coffin back from a long distance, just to make his choice known in front of the coffin.