New Shun 1730
Chapter 638: Mediation without mediation
In return for Russia not allying with Dashun's enemies, Liu Yu knew what Russia lacked most and what Dashun could give Russia to the greatest extent.
That is, money.
After the rosy-faced queen asked Liu Yu to sit down, she did not talk about trade and money in a hurry, but asked Liu Yu about Sweden.
"I know that the Swedish Ambassador has contacted you. So, can you tell me how you responded to the Swedish Ambassador?"
"Your Majesty the Queen, I just told the Swedish ambassador that Sweden was bound to fail. And they didn't even consider the possibility of defeat at the beginning of the war, so I told them that they should draw up a treaty that you can agree to as soon as possible so that they can admit defeat honorably. ”
Liu Yu smiled and gave a very personal reason.
"I told them that because you have just ascended the throne, your position is not stable enough. So you need a victory to enhance your prestige and prove that you are the successor to your father's policies. So you cannot give up the attack on Sweden easily, French mediation is meaningless."
Since the theory of monarchy was something that people in the streets and palaces of Dashun basically understood two thousand years ago, Queen Elizabeth was not surprised by Liu Yu's answer.
Indeed, this gets to the point.
At least, Sweden will continue to increase its troops next year. Sweden must be defeated on the battlefield and take the initiative to seek peace.
As for what conditions would be required, the formal negotiations could only begin after victory. And before absolute victory on the battlefield, Queen Elizabeth was not prepared to accept any mediation at all.
The French Marquis of Lachetadie has been mediating, because the Swiss-Russian War was instigated by France.
This made the Queen quite unhappy. She felt that the Marquis of Lachetadie did not understand politics at all. Although he was romantic, elegant, colorful and lovable, he was indeed politically unqualified.
At this time, how could it be possible to continue to put pressure on her to accept French mediation? Just a few days after the coup, the coronation ceremony was not even held. How did the whole Petersburg view her?
The slogan of her coup was to restore Russian orthodoxy, because the court was previously filled with foreigners.
So, the Germans are foreigners, but the French are not?
Compared with France's attitude, Dashun made the Queen feel much more comfortable.
All boundary agreements were signed before. The Queen did not sign any border treaty with Dashun, and Dashun did not ask for more by "supporting the establishment".
Even on the issue of the Swedish war, it directly grasped the key point. Politically, this battle must be fought to the end until Sweden takes the initiative to seek peace.
"My Lord Marquis, you are a smart man. Talking to smart people, I can speak more clearly. As you said, of course the Swedish war will continue, and the reasons are the same as you said. However, I am not convinced about the results. Considering not to oppress Sweden too much, and now, with the suggestions in your letter, I think my heart is more inclined to the outcome you want in terms of post-war contracts.”
"So, even if you don't mediate the war between Sweden and Russia, at least you gave the Swedes some advice, right?"
Liu Yu was not prepared to hide it, as he was going to have both sides of the problem.
"Yes, Your Majesty the Queen. I have considered that you must establish a prince, especially if you are sure not to execute the tsar to show your kindness. Your nephew, your sister's only son, is the best choice."
“I therefore propose to the Swedes that they elect Adolf Frederik, brother of your fiancé, guardian of your nephew, regent of the duchy of Holstein and Schleswig, to be crown prince of Sweden, to take the place left vacant by your nephew. "
"I am standing in your shoes, or using China's thousands of years of historical experience to think about it for you. I hope you can understand that I am not helping Sweden, but helping you."
After seeing how well the people in Dashun understood the political struggles in the palace, Elizabeth was not surprised at all that Liu Yu thought she would make her nephew the prince.
The reason for making his nephew the prince is indeed, as Liu Yu said, for the sake of stability, to prevent someone from propping up the old tsar again, and to completely eliminate the influence of Mecklenburg and Courland forces on Russia.
However, Elizabeth was surprised by having Sweden elect Adolf Frederic as crown prince. An accident is an accident, but I agree with it in my heart.
He stretched out his hand and made a "please speak" gesture, hoping that Liu Yu would tell "from her" perspective why this matter was beneficial to Russia.
"Your Majesty the Queen, one hundred years have passed since the Thirty Years' War. But people's thinking, especially the thinking of some marshals and generals, is still stuck in the era of the Thirty Years' War."
"Dashun is like this, so there was a military reform that lasted for more than ten years, and the army that had been in the thirty-year war was disbanded."
"Russia is faster in terms of equipment, but in terms of strategic awareness and tactical awareness, IMHO, it is still the thinking of that era."
"The era of mercenaries, elite troops, and small countries dominating the world has passed."
“The era of national militia, conscripts, recruits trained quickly in three months, and competition for population and industrial potential has arrived.”
"So, you can see that the Netherlands, Sweden... these small countries that once dominated have begun to decline in the new era. It is not an accident that Russia defeated Sweden, and it was not an accident that the Netherlands did not participate in the signing of the treaty after the Quadruple Alliance War. ”
"Sweden's era is over. Even if Gustav II is reborn, he cannot turn Sweden's one million people into ten million. Even if there is a temporary victory on the battlefield, the people in Russia will eventually be drowned. In the sea. This is the strategic thinking of the new era, and unfortunately, many people's way of thinking is still stuck in the era of the Thirty Years War and Dashun's takeover of the world."
"But with the strategic thinking that we should have in this era, you should understand that Sweden is very weak. And your other potential opponent is very strong."
"I can tell you about the discussion between Zhu Yuanzhang, the founder of the Ming Empire, about 'strengthening first and then becoming weak' or 'first being weak and then becoming strong'."
Of course, people's correct ideas do not fall from the sky. The principle of learning from history is very correct. We just need to make sure that we can analyze the specific situation in detail, and don't make stories of waiting for the opportunity and waiting for the opportunity.
Russia's history is not deep, and it has not had many opportunities to display its strategy before.
As for Chinese historical stories, Elizabeth certainly had not heard that many, and had only read some imaginary things written by Voltaire.
After listening to Liu Yu's slightly modified story about whether to fight the strong Chen Youliang or the weak Zhang Shicheng first, Queen Elizabeth couldn't help but nodded.
After calmly thinking about Liu Yu's argument about "the times have changed", I already recognized Liu Yu's statement in my heart.
Indeed, many people in the Russian court, as Liu Yu said, are still using their experiences a hundred years ago to understand what is happening now.
The era when a decisive battle involving 20,000 people could affect the entire European war situation has passed. The flintlocks and bayonets that had become popular since the War of the Spanish Succession made it impossible to rely on a small number of mercenaries on the scale of the war. With the scale of battles often ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, the Swedes' war potential is indeed not as good as Russia's, and it is far from Sweden during the Great Northern War.
If we can't figure this out, then Liu Yu's strategy of getting strong first and then getting weak will be meaningless. Because the Russians still have "Swedephobia" at this time, the conclusion drawn based on past experience is that Sweden cannot be underestimated.
However, according to Liu Yu's analysis, Sweden is no longer enough to threaten Russia.
Liu Yu did not say who Russia's potential "strong enemy" was, but it goes without saying that it must be Prussia.
Poland and Lithuania are not considered strong enemies of Russia at all.
The bizarre king-selection system has become a training ground for interference from various countries. Poland is no longer enough to be called a strong enemy.
And Prussia, which had just emerged, had already attracted Russian attention.
Regardless of whether Russia is advancing westward or southward, Poland cannot be bypassed. Poland was not a concern, but the rise of Prussia made Elizabeth soberly aware that it would be an obstacle to Russia's westward advance.
Especially the current situation in the Austrian Succession War is extremely favorable to the Prussian side, and it even looks like Austria may be dismembered at any time.
Prussia is strong and Sweden is weak. After reaching this consensus, Liu Yu's next words will be logical.
"Your Majesty the Queen, if you try to weaken Sweden with all your strength, or even completely cut off Finland, you will definitely arouse Sweden's hatred and possible revenge at any time. This makes it extremely dangerous for you to eat Poland or become an enemy of Prussia in the future. ”
"On the other hand, if you turn Sweden into a pro-Russian king and keep Sweden from surrendering honorably, then the dispute between Sweden and Prussia over Pomerania will make Sweden an ally when you expand westward. ”
"After you defeat the strong enemy first, the weak potential enemy will be the thing in your pocket."
"So, I said, I considered this issue completely from Russia's perspective and gave suggestions."
"Furthermore, I suggest that you take advantage of your victory on the battlefield to request the transfer of part of the Swedish East India Company's shares. Dashun will also transfer part of its shares to you."
"It led to the establishment of a joint trading company between Dashun, Sweden and Russia. It monopolized the trade east of the Cape of Good Hope in the Baltic Sea and obtained high profits."
"Wars in this era ultimately rely on population and wealth, both of which are indispensable. Of course you know how profitable China's trade products are."
"Similarly, Dashun is also faced with the monopoly of the East India Company of various countries, which prevents us from obtaining high profits and can only watch them take away the profits from transshipment."
"Dashun, I bet the Baltic trade market on you, or in other words, on the Russian Empire."
"Sweden is too weak to capture the entire Baltic Sea market."
“For Russia, to advance westward is to gain land for Russian plows with Russian swords.”
"For China, Russia's westward march was to find a broader market for Dashun's goods."
"The profits in the trade circle around the Baltic Sea are really huge. And this huge profit is also the basis for mutual trust between you and us."
"I neither suppress the Swedish East India Company nor the Danish East India Company. I suppress Russia to gain hegemony in the Baltic Sea. Only with hegemony can we control trade."
"I ship the goods, and you grab the market. The money you earn is split half and half."
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