New Shun 1730

There was a lot of noise below, and they were seriously discussing what the annual interest rate was in their minds.

It was quiet above. Liu Yu really had a clear number in his heart, but he had no idea whether these businessmen were willing to invest.

Let me tell you an idea that sounds very magical realist. Is it possible to let the Dutch pay to support the navy and marines of Dashun?

It is possible. Not only is it possible, but it is very possible.

Liu Yu visited Europe a few years ago. A large amount of capital in Europe now lacks investment space.

Otherwise, it would not be possible to burst two or three big bubbles in 20 years. There was really too much money to spend, but the huge economic growth point of the Industrial Revolution had not yet exploded.

Once the currency is over-issued and there is no new economic growth point, it is easy to have bubbles and investment frenzy, or hype about some weird things. Whether it is tulips, South Sea Company stocks, or Mississippi gold, it is almost the same.

After 20 or 30 years, is there any new profit growth point in Europe?

It should be said that there is no.

Not only no, but even some regression.

According to Liu Yu's estimation, if Dashun wanted to borrow national debt from the Netherlands, it only needed to pay an annual interest rate of about 6% to borrow it.

If the money was repaid on time and the credit rating was improved, it would be completely possible to reduce it to about 5% or 4% within ten years.

However, it was wrong to consider the idea of ​​luring Dutch financial capital based on the interest rate of borrowing national debt.

The Dutch financial capital must be given enough benefits to allow them to control the parliament, complete lobbying, and thus invest in Dashun's "East India Company".

Liu Yu believed that this annual interest rate should be about 8%.

Among the national debts of European countries, the one with the highest interest rate is Russia. But Russia is really small and does not need so much money.

There is nowhere to go for a lot of idle money, and the annual interest rate of 8% is enough for Dutch financial capital to sell out its own country.

The Dutch East India Company created a very good foundation for Dashun in the Netherlands.

That is, the accounts are only made public once every ten years, the 17-member board of directors has the sole power, and the differences between the provincial chambers of commerce can be temporarily shelved in the face of unified interests.

These foundations determined that Dashun could get control of the company.

As long as Dashun promises to pay dividends of at least 8% annually, or even 10%. But the premise is that Dashun must have absolute control over the board of directors, and the Dutch financial capital can agree to it.

10% annual interest is really high in the Netherlands.

Dashun is not short of capital. For a business as big as Nanyang, in fact, 20 to 30 million taels of silver are enough. With 20 to 30 million taels of silver, Dashun does not need to go to the Netherlands to borrow money.

However, Dashun cannot eat alone, so it can only pull the Dutch.

After pulling the Dutch, this is magical realism: using the Dutch money to rule the former colonies of the Netherlands.

An annual interest of about 8%, or slightly higher, is no problem on the Dutch side.

The problem is Dashun.

Liu Yu doubts whether 8% annual interest is enough to convince the merchant class of Dashun?

In the early stage, the profit will not be too high. After estimation, as well as the original market size of the Dutch East India Company, and the expenses of the Nanyang garrison, land reform, and war.

At least within three to five years, it is actually at a level of 12% or 13%.

And since we have to consider joining forces with the Netherlands and France in the future to abolish Britain's sea control and the "Navigation Act", warships must also be built.

At least one battleship and two cruisers must be allocated from the profits every year.

Of course, if we win in the future and completely control the initiative of maritime trade, the return rate will certainly be more than 12%.

The problem is that the merchant class can only look at three to five years at most, which is considered far-sighted. If they can't see the money within three to five years, they will most likely choose to withdraw their investment.

Now I can't say anything, there is no hope for negotiations with the Netherlands this year, and it will be delayed until next year.

If we inject capital now, we will not get the annual interest until at least the Chinese New Year next year. There are also a series of military operations and political activities that need to be deducted from the company's capital.

I can't say anything, Liu Yu has reserved some room, and that's basically it.

It's mainly in the early stage, and the trade with Britain, France, Switzerland, Portugal and other countries cannot be stopped. Porcelain and silk cannot be monopolized, which also makes the profit not so high.

Although there are various difficulties, there are also good aspects. That is, although the Portuguese took away the spice seeds and planted them in Brazil, the labor cost and environment there cannot shake the spice status of Southeast Asia for the time being.

If you want to fight a monopoly price war, you can put it aside for the time being and talk about it later.

As for India, Liu Yu persuaded the emperor with India's land tax silver.

The scale of sending troops to India is about 3,000 to 5,000 people, so there is no rush, and the cost is not very high. The emperor does not want the merchant class to intervene in India's land tax silver, so this cost can be ignored.

For the time being, what Dashun can take over is actually the entire legacy of the Dutch East India Company. Basically, the annual profit of the Dutch East India Company is how much, and Dashun can only take so much for the time being.

Of course, with a capital of 8 million taels of silver and 12 times leveraged bonds, such a large company can still make considerable profits. In addition, Dashun can abolish some of the original strange systems of the Dutch company, and there is no need to worry about the lack of silver currency to buy Dashun goods. As long as it survives the first few years with the lowest profits, it will definitely make a fortune in the future.

This is exactly the opposite of the Dutch East India Company.

The Dutch East India Company, in the first few years, had a return of 50%. This has cultivated the habit of investing among the entire Dutch people.

However, this mission of changing social consciousness has been completed by the Japanese trade monopoly company many years ago. The wealthy merchants in Songjiang Prefecture are now also happy to invest money and bonds.

The scale of the Japanese trade company is not very large, but the impact is huge. Liu Yu mainly wants this kind of influence to change social consciousness.

As a prelude, it seems very meaningful now.

Dashun cannot adopt the model of the British and Dutch East India Company. The court has to control the board of directors, which is mixed with the court's credibility.

Therefore, Liu Yu could not say something absolutely correct like "If you are willing to gamble, you must accept the loss. There is no such thing as only making money and not losing money in business."

Nor could he give an overly high rate of return that would entice everyone to invest.

France set up the Mississippi Company and promised a high rate of return. But after the bubble burst, the French government's credibility fell for 20 years, and it is difficult to borrow money now.

With the reputation Liu Yu has accumulated among the business class over the years, he can still get 70 or 80 million taels by playing tricks such as passing the parcel and tempting with high returns. If he really wants to learn from John Law, he can be cruel and create a Nanyang myth similar to the Mississippi myth, engage in fraudulent fundraising, and get 100 or 200 million taels.

However, as a feudal monarchy, Dashun has accumulated inertia for two thousand years. Liu Yu thinks that the trust of merchants and the reputation among the emerging class cultivated in nearly 20 years are more valuable than 70 or 80 million taels.

So he could only be cautious, even if he felt that if he did it well, he might be able to achieve an annual interest rate of 15%.

But he didn't dare to say it.

Because he couldn't be very sure, and he didn't dare to say that he was 100% sure.

The court was going to end, so some things couldn't be said casually.

Now he could only give a minimum value, and then those who were willing to take the bait would be willing to take the bait.

The minimum value can basically be guaranteed, there is no problem with this.

This annual interest rate is enough to make financiers and bankers crazy in Europe. The reason why Liu Yu was unsure about Dashun was mainly because of the land value in Dashun.

The tenants generally paid 50% of the rent, and Dashun also included the head tax into the land tax. The abolition of the head tax means that it should be distributed according to the land.

The tax rate in Dashun is really not high. With nearly 1 billion mu of land, 20 million is collected a year, which is really the level of 20 to 30 percent tax.

But no one knows how much money the bottom is collected.

Abolish the head tax, and negotiate at the grassroots level based on land rather than head. The losers will definitely be the self-cultivating farmers.

Land prices have fallen in recent years.

It is normal for small farmers to go bankrupt.

Land prices have fallen, and the standard rent rate for tenants is 50%... Dashun never has to worry about sheep eating people, because British landlords took back the land because the rent was too low. The rent on Dashun's side is unlikely to be sheep eating people unless the sheep pull gold.

The feudal traditional rent in Britain is indeed not high.

Capitalist rent is indeed high.

Of course, landowners are willing to collect capitalist rent for their land and give up the feudal "ancestral law".

In the feudal tradition of Britain, the lease term is often three generations of grandparents and grandchildren.

The minimum is 21 years and the maximum is 99 years, which is basically a perpetual tenancy system. And the rent is much lower than that of Dashun.

99 years, put four or five hundred years ago, it seems that there is no change. But in this era, who knows how high the prices have risen in 1999. According to the land rent standards 99 years ago, the landowners could not maintain the dignity of the nobility.

In those days, the average rent for one acre of land was 20 pence.

One acre is about 6 mu of land.

240 pence is one pound, three taels of silver, which means the rent for one acre of land is about three qian of silver.

The average rent for two mu of land is only one qian of silver.

Dashun certainly did not have such low rents. You want to rent one acre of land for half a qian of silver? Add a zero, it's about the same.

According to the land deeds of the Qianlong era of the Qing Dynasty, the price of one acre of land in the richest Suzhou Prefecture was 12 taels of silver per acre when the price of rice was expensive; when the price of rice was normal, it was 4 taels of silver.

The rent was eight dou or nine dou.

In other words, the rent of this land was guaranteed to be eight dou, and the land price was 12 taels of silver per acre in the years when the price of rice soared. But then it dropped to 4 taels of silver.

The normal rice price is one tael of silver for one stone of rice, and eight dou of rice should be worth at least six or seven qian of silver.

This was when the rice price was high, and in fact, the land in Shanghai County was only worth two or three taels of silver in normal years, because the rent could only be collected from five dou.

History has proven that the implementation of the land tax system will lead to a drop in land prices, because labor, corvee, and apportionment are not based on the number of people but on the land, so small farmers are more likely to go bankrupt and land prices will also fall.

The land that can collect five dou of rent is two taels of silver per mu.

To put it at the least, even if the rent is five dou, it can only be sold for four qian of silver.

What is the annual rate of return?

40%.

If it is a year of disaster, the rice price will rise, and the annual rate of return may be as high as 100%.

Now the question is, given the national conditions, inertia, and the degree of land value preservation of Dashun...

If you have 10,000 taels of silver, should you buy land?

Or invest in the risky stocks of limited liability companies?

This is a choice that even a fool knows.

Therefore, the reason why Dashun and Ming Dynasty cannot borrow national debts in their own countries and cannot copy the models of Western European banks and national debts is very simple.

Your court is incompetent. It can neither give an annual interest rate of 50% nor allow farmers to own their land and reduce tenant rents.

If the court can give an annual interest rate of 50%, and double the national debt in two years, do you think anyone will buy it?

But the court cannot pull gold and excrete silver, so how can it give a high interest rate of 50% annual interest?

Or even if you follow the fantasy of ancient Confucianism, and make everyone own their own land, 11th tax, and well-field system, even if the national debt has an annual interest rate of 10%, do you think anyone will buy it?

But the Yanli Guru school's system, after 30 years of renting, the land belongs to the tenant, which is similar to the 30-year installment redemption system, peaceful transition... It's not even a fantasy, it's simply a delusion.

The same is true for trade and investment.

In the Netherlands, you can get a loan with an annual interest rate of 5%, as long as you have enough credit; an annual interest rate of 8% can allow capital to squeeze the threshold of IPO; an annual interest rate of 15% can allow you to directly issue bonds 20 times the company's assets.

In Dashun, capital tilted its head and looked around, then turned around to hoard land.

Is an annual interest rate of 5% also worthy of investment from the capital of the Celestial Empire?

So what is the cancer that hinders Dashun?

This has nothing to do with personal morality, and it has nothing to do with whether the landowner is a good person or a bad person.

What exactly forced Liu Yu to cooperate with the Dutch who massacred Taiwan and Penghu, and to find foreign markets, and to be almost desperate about the small domestic market? What forced Liu Yu to not offer the lowest annual interest rate to these merchants, but to offer one or two percentage points more even at the risk of losing his reputation?

Liu Yu knew it clearly.

But he could not solve it, and he did not dare to solve it.