New Shun 1730

The reason why Liu Yu cares so much about this matter is that Liu Yu doesn't understand it at all.

Most people are like this, and they are most afraid of the unknown.

Because there have indeed been outrageous cases of money and silver exchange in history, but according to the data, it is not clear, and no conclusion that makes sense can be drawn.

It is difficult to explain the economy scientifically.

If this is another subject, it is easy to draw a conclusion by listing various variables.

However, if we find logical connections according to the variable method for the exchange of copper coins and silver, we will draw very outrageous conclusions.

In history, the phenomenon of "silver is expensive and money is cheap" began in the late 1810s. Looking at the world, something happened in the silver-producing area of ​​South America at that time: Bolivar and San Martin led the magnificent independence movement in South America, which caused a huge drop in the world's silver production.

It seems that this can be regarded as one of the reasons why silver is expensive and money is cheap.

But the problem is that reality is not a Martian market. It is not that silver, raw silk, and cloth are advanced to the other dimension space, and then price fluctuations occur rapidly.

And at least before 1830, even if it was considered opium smuggling, silver still flowed in. Even if the world's silver production plummeted, it did not affect the inflow of silver, right?

Similarly, since 1858, the exchange rate has soared to 2,500 or 2,600 coins for one tael of silver, and there has been another big drop, all the way down to the perfect value of 1,000.

In fact, there were a few "small things" that did not attract much attention in those years.

In the 1850s, the United States discovered a super-large silver mine, which was later called the "Old Silver Mountain".

In 1848, gold mining in San Francisco reached a new height.

In 1851, the Australian gold mine was discovered, and the Australian gold rush began.

How big is this impact?

In the ten years before San Francisco, the Old Silver Mountain, and the Australian gold and silver were mined, the world produced 650,000 ounces of gold and 14.8 million ounces of silver. About 500,000 taels of gold and 12 million taels of silver... This was "printed" out.

Then, the three big printing factories, San Francisco, Old Silver Mountain, and Australia, began to "print money".

In the 1950s, 5 million taels of gold and 25 million taels of silver were mined in ten years. And this speed of "printing" money was maintained until Gold Mountain became San Francisco and Silver Mountain became Old Silver Mountain.

It sounds like this can also explain why silver became cheap again after the Second Crow.

But the problem arises again.

Since the Second Crow, except for a few strange years, it has basically been silver outflow.

On the one hand, the world is frantically mining gold and silver, causing the price of silver to fall. This seems to explain the problem of "cheap silver and expensive money" that suddenly appeared during that period.

But the reality is that China's silver began to flow out, and the amount of silver in the country was reduced, so silver should be expensive.

Because it can't be explained, no matter how it can't be explained, Liu Yu is particularly panicked about this matter.

As long as he can explain it, he won't panic.

Or avoid it, or bypass it, or find a way to solve it.

It was this kind of weird and inexplicable thing that made him panic and completely out of control.

In short, if the world is really a "Mars market" and there is really an alternate dimension where the goods and metals are placed in the space to set prices, then China's silver-money exchange problem can be explained:

Bolivar and San Martin caused a sharp drop in the world's silver increment, so money became cheap and silver became expensive in the 1810s; the development of San Francisco, Old Silver Mountain, and Australian gold and silver mines caused a surge in silver, so money became expensive and silver became cheap in the 1860s.

But the premise for this explanation to be plausible is precisely the impossible "alternative dimension market, instant price fluctuations".

It is exactly the opposite to calculate according to the surplus and deficit of the domestic market and the country's overseas trade.

This change was not only imagined by the scholars in history, but also by the merchants of the East India Company, who also noticed this change and gave a variety of explanations.

That is, in 1858, during the Second Opium, Britain's trade with China had been previously raised to 1.4 million pounds by the policy of snapping its head.

Suddenly, in 1958, things became easier to sell.

The East India Company was also confused. After visiting, internal professionals came to the conclusion that "because the Chinese people use copper coins, and the value of copper coins suddenly increased, this trade increase may be difficult to sustain."

It is similar to the original 1 tael of silver goods here, which changed from 1800 copper coins to 1400 copper coins. Relatively speaking, the price has dropped, so it is easier to sell... Because they don't accept copper coins, but the people use copper coins, and ordinary goods can't be sold for one tael of silver. They are all priced in copper coins by second-hand dealers.

Liu Yu believes that copper coins are the "local currency" of Dashun, and silver is the "foreign currency", because the common people must use copper coins on weekdays, and the domestic market can be calculated by what the people use.

But the problem is that in 1958, the world's gold and silver mines did begin to increase on a large scale, so it is impossible to react so quickly, even directly affecting the countryside? This reaction speed is comparable to futures after the popularization of communications, right? Obviously wrong.

However, no matter how hard you think, you can't figure out where the problem lies.

Liu Yu is not afraid of things that can be explained by reason and are not metaphysical.

Whether it is the free trade that the British are fooling around with, or the British unique traditions that Whig historiography is fooling around with that have made Britain great, etc., these things can be understood by looking at the data, without any religious nonsense explanations.

However, the exchange of copper coins and silver is similar to metaphysics.

Liu Yu is also really afraid. With the increase in foreign trade, he doesn't know when this issue will explode, because it is completely unpredictable, and even many explanations from later generations do not make sense at all.

If this explodes, something big will happen: if the currency rises from 800, to 2,500, and then plummets to 1,000, something big will happen among the people.

For other matters, he could explain them clearly to the emperor.

He couldn't explain this kind of thing clearly. If something happened, he wouldn't even be able to explain the truth. The emperor would have no choice but to follow the scholar-bureaucrat's logic, and something might go wrong.

Unified into silver, although the impact of external trade was greater.

But at least the variables have been reduced and the formulas have been simplified. Any problems can be solved and predicted in a general direction.

The current coexistence of copper and silver is simply unpredictable and pure chaos.

Where science cannot explain, metaphysics will spread, and the conclusions drawn from imagination cannot be refuted, which will be difficult to handle.

The emperor saw that Liu Yu was so serious about this matter, and also knew that Liu Yu had rarely been so serious about things in recent years. After thinking about it for a moment, he said: "The reform of coinage is not a trivial matter. Besides, if it is exchanged for silver, the court is really so serious How much silver?”

"People are accustomed to using copper coins, and the sudden change to banknotes is like changing customs. Besides, how should we implement it?"

"Direct exchange? If the price is low, no one will be willing to exchange; if the price is high, there will be profiteers collecting money everywhere, and the people will be short of money."

"Ai Qing, do you think there will be any problems if we try it out in southern Jiangsu?"

Liu Yu was quite confident about this, and shook his head and said: "If it is tried in southern Jiangsu, there will be no problem. But it is best to implement it in more places. The court may not exchange silver, but can also deposit copper. The situation in southern Jiangsu is special. If It’s of little significance to only try it out in southern Jiangsu.”

Southern Jiangsu has the special characteristics of southern Jiangsu. The commodity economy has developed rapidly with Songjiang Prefecture as a trade center.

The influx of Nanyang rice and small loans have led some people to try to grow mulberries and sell silk, or grow other cash crops. Without the pressure of raising rice, the development of the commodity economy and the trial mu tax reform have made it very simple to promote banknotes in southern Jiangsu.

But the problem we have to face now is the two rivers.

If we want to control the water, a large amount of silver will inevitably flow into the Huaihe River. The official money of the imperial court is silver, and the appropriation is also silver.

Moreover, due to the changes in the canal, the old economic support in the Huaihe and Huaihe areas has disintegrated. This is the place that needs a stable currency the most.

Sunan, it was a matter of course.

Northern Jiangsu and the Huaihe River are top priorities.

Liu Yu made it clear directly.

"Your Majesty, since we have to control the Huaihe River, tens of millions of silver have poured in. And this time we have to levy the people and give money to the envoys. It is impossible for the court to issue copper coins, right?"

"If so much silver is issued at once, I'm afraid that the price of local money will fluctuate. I'm afraid that some unscrupulous people will go to collect money elsewhere and come here to exchange for silver, which may cause problems with money elsewhere."

"Therefore, if it's just Sunan, I think there's no need to rush. In the future, when all the banknotes are used, there will be no problem with small-denomination banknotes. But for these two Huai, it's best to use them."

His mention also reminded the emperor.

"When Aiqing talked about Lianghuai, I remembered something again."

"It's just that there are people in the government who want to change the salt policy."

"I think you probably know how to change it. It's just Yan Gang, Yan Piao, and Yan Yin. It's not a matter of discussion today."

"Every morning's court meeting is like entering a closed garden, with hundreds of beasts contending and birds chirping. The noise makes me have a headache. Those who support and those who oppose each have their own reasons."

"I have a change of heart. Since you happened to mention this small banknote matter, I was thinking, if the salt method is changed, can it be implemented with small banknotes?"

Liu Yu didn't expect the emperor to take such big steps. In surprise, the emperor smiled and said: "Don't worry, Yangzhou Salt, I won't move for the time being. But Haizhou Salt, I will definitely move."

"The canal was abandoned, and Haizhou Salt had to change its route. Since the route was changed, it was also changed at the same time. Compared with Yangzhou salt, Haizhou salt is much less. Whether it succeeds or fails, it is a matter of hundreds of thousands of taels of silver. I It’s affordable now.”

"If it's possible, push it to the south field; if it's not possible, let's talk about it again."

"Since no one uses this salt, and Haizhou salt is needed by the Huaihe River and Anhui Province, it would be simpler if the salt with banknotes method could be implemented."

"As long as the merchants who buy salt stamps know that the banknotes are suitable for use, then if the people have banknotes in their hands, they will also take them."

"The imperial court recognizes banknotes for tax collection. If the salt merchants also recognize it, this should be implemented, right?"

While the emperor was thinking about this one-sheep-two-sheep reform, he was also pondering the role of banknotes. At least from the court's perspective, it doesn't seem to be a big problem.

First of all, if there is less fire consumption, we can’t say that the smelting of paper money consumes fire, right?

Secondly, Nanyang and Jiangnan can basically meet the bulk supplies used by the imperial court. Even if there is a war in the northwest and southwest, it can be exchanged for silver. Moreover, the war there has basically been calmed down now, so there is no need to spend money, otherwise we would not dare to build the Huaihe River. Second, the direction in which money will be spent in the future is all the direction in which paper money can be spent on supplies.

Thirdly, the imperial court has indeed been troubled by minting money in recent years. People everywhere are complaining that there is not enough money. Silver is a large-denomination currency and people rarely use it.

Dashun expanded its army, especially its navy, and used copper vigorously.

Naval cannons are best made of copper, as iron cannons rust easily; elite field cannons are also best made of copper, which are lighter in weight.

Copper was originally in short supply, and minting coins was a headache, but they had to do it. But they had to expand the army to prepare for war, and they had to expand.

Is copper a precious metal or a currency? This contradiction has become increasingly serious with the Dashun military reform.

If small-denomination banknotes can be used directly, it would be a good thing. The court can use copper as weapons, and it doesn't have to squeeze out copper to meet the demand for private currency first.

Of course, the emperor didn't dare to take too big a step in this matter. Since it's a reform, why not try it in Jiangnan and Lianghuai areas first?

The salt in Yangzhou, Huai'an, and Yancheng areas is large in quantity and involves many things. We definitely dare not touch it now. At least we have to wait until the salt policy reform of Huaibei Salt Field proves to be effective before trying to change it.