Paranormal incident investigation notes
Chapter 158 Survivor Bias
The sun has not risen yet, but it is no longer dark between heaven and earth.
Among the mountains covered with green vegetation, a simple triangular thatched hut stood abruptly on a higher ground on a gentle slope without big trees.
The roof of the hut is pointed and made of some branches bundled together. The outer layer is covered with broad leaves and is airtight to both wind and water.
On the edge of the hut, a solar panel faced the direction where the sun was about to rise. A wire extended from it, leading to a box that looked like a battery.
In front of the hut, there were still the ashes of the campfire, a stone stove, chopping boards, kitchen knives, pots and pans and the like. There was a thigh of an unknown animal hanging under the eaves, with traces of salt stains on it. At this moment, it has been tanned to dark red, and there is a faint fragrance coming out.
There are no fences around the hut, and it seems that it is completely unprotected from wild animals that may be around. But if an experienced hunter arrives, he will notice that there are a lot of traps around the hut. If the location of the trap is not known in advance, even people, let alone wild beasts, will fall into the trap.
A few dozen meters away from the hut is a shallow stream with gurgling water. Facing the hut, it was obvious that a small puddle with an area of only a few square meters had been dug manually. The connection between the small puddle and the creek has been specially designed so that fish can easily come in, but it is not so easy to leave.
At this moment, there were several unknown fish as long as a hand swimming in this puddle.
Insects chirped, birds chirped, and the wind rustled, the sun finally rose from the peaks in the east, spreading its rays of light down on the land.
Facing the rising sun, He Wei slowly opened her eyes on the simple wooden bed, walked out of the hut, faced the rising sun, and stretched lazily.
After lighting a fire, boiling water, and washing briefly, He Wei came to the puddle.
The water is shallow and the puddles are small. Those fish didn't have much room to move, so they were easily caught by her. Afterwards, they were scaled, disemboweled, cleaned, pierced with a pick, and roasted on the fire. During the process, various seasonings are sprinkled on, combining with the taste of the fish itself, and the aroma is fragrant.
In the process, she quickly cut some ham, searched around the hut, and found a handful of wild vegetables. She cleaned them up and threw them into the pot, added salt, and simmered for a while, creating a bowl of wild vegetable soup. It's done.
Eating grilled fish, drinking soup, facing the rising sun and feeling the cool wind, He Wei's face was full of contentment.
"The rabbit nest I found a few days ago can be closed today. You can make spicy diced rabbit, or stew it directly to make braised rabbit. Then go find some mushrooms and make mushroom soup. For dinner, it should be lighter. Get some bamboo shoots and stir-fry them with ham to make a meal. It just so happens that there are bamboos in the mountain to the west and the scenery is pretty good, just in time to take a look."
Thinking about today's schedule, He Wei ate slowly. But before she had finished her breakfast, the satellite phone that had been silent for more than two months suddenly rang.
Her face fell quickly.
No need to think about it, the task is coming. It also means that my leisurely and comfortable days are over.
The call was connected and as expected.
"Hey, Rabbit, Rabbit, you're lucky, I'll let you go."
Sighing rather regretfully, she dialed a number again.
"Meet me in an hour."
"yes."
During this hour, she walked around the hut and destroyed all the traps placed everywhere. The small puddle beside the creek was also opened by her, so no fish would be trapped in it.
Afterwards, she walked towards the hut where she had lived for more than a month. But she rested her hand on it for a while, and finally changed her mind.
"Forget it, I'll keep it with you. Leave all these pots, pans, and other things here. Maybe someone can use them."
A helicopter flew here with a rumble, and then slowly descended. After lowering to a height of about five or six meters, a rope ladder was thrown out.
He Wei stepped on it, and the helicopter rose. Then in her sight, the hut, creek, stove, grass and other things began to shrink rapidly.
Ten hours later, she appeared at the headquarters building of the 13th Division of the Planetary Security Agency. It's just afternoon time now.
When he opened the door, he saw Lu Qingliang and Lu Ming already waiting here.
After chatting and laughing for a while, Zhang Dingshan also walked in. Several people stood up at the same time and walked to Li Wenhua's office.
"This is the archive information for this mission."
Li Wenhua handed a portfolio to Zhang Dingshan. After a moment of silence, he only said one sentence: "Do a good job."
"yes."
Several people saluted Li Wenhua at the same time.
When he came to the conference room, Lu Qingliang copied the information into four copies, keeping one copy for himself and giving the remaining three copies to the three people.
Lu Ming picked up the file and read it carefully.
Like the last murderous house case, this time's case was still subject to an in-depth and detailed investigation by security officers from the public security bureaus at all levels. The information is mixed with a large number of pictures and identification documents. This allowed a few people to understand all the information on the case so far in just a short time.
"Flight EU7655?"
Lu Ming muttered the name.
He also knew about the crash of this flight - in fact, almost everyone on the planet knew about it. After all, a major event like a passenger plane crashing directly, killing more than 100 people, in today's Internet age, would probably spread around the world in less than a day.
Before that, he had always thought it was just an ordinary accident. He never thought that there was such a hidden secret in it.
There is evidence that Sun Lide, who works at the aircraft assembly plant as a senior engineer, knew that the crash would happen a long time ago? What seems like an ordinary accident could actually be a terrorist attack?
After reading the information, none of them spoke. They were just meditating silently, analyzing and thinking about the information recorded in the files.
After a long time, Lu Ming finally spoke.
"It's really strange. If it was a terrorist attack, why couldn't the accident investigation team find any trace of man-made damage?"
If it weren't for the note accidentally discovered in Sun Lide's office, the crash would have been settled long ago and the final conclusion would have been reached. No one would have thought of investigating Sun Lide's daily behavior and mental and emotional stability. , no one would suspect that his death was abnormal.
But it happened to be this piece of paper that turned the whole thing upside down.
"Well, the investigation team investigated Sun Lide's interpersonal relationships and daily communications as deeply as possible, and found no suspicious targets. There was nothing suspicious about his mobile phone, computer, email, phone calls, etc. The background investigation showed that Sun Lide was not extreme. He has no tendency to promote a plane crash. No matter where you look at it, he should have nothing to do with this accident..."
He Wei thought for a while and said with some uncertainty: "Is it possible? Is it because we are too sensitive? Maybe this is just a coincidence?"
Lu Qingliang immediately said: "It's not a coincidence. The information clearly shows that Sun Lide was obviously emotionally unstable before the crash, and at that time, except for the crash, there were no factors that could affect his mood. Video records show that during the accident The investigation team finally made it clear that this was an accident without any human factors involved, and his mental state changed again. Through the analysis of micro-expressions and micro-movements by psychological experts, it can be clearly concluded that Sun Lide seemed to be relaxed. "With one breath, a stone was lifted from my heart."
These materials can obviously prove to a great extent that Sun Lide was clearly aware of the crash. The "EU7655" on the note was not written casually.
He Wei shook her head: "I'm not talking about this kind of coincidence. It's the kind of coincidence that is similar to dreaming, or just having an ominous premonition."
There are a lot of phenomena in human society that are similar to "dreaming about something bad, and it actually happened", or "dreaming about the death of a loved one, and then waking up to receive the news of the death of a loved one", and so on. Or you might see a person or an item, or have an inexplicable and ominous premonition about something. As a result, the person dies or becomes ill, the item breaks, the thing fails, and so on.
There is no evidence that such things as "dream precognition," "sixth sense," and "intuition" actually exist. In fact, scientists are more inclined to believe that this is a relatively special psychological mechanism, which is essentially a coincidence and can be explained by theory. It has nothing to do with the so-called predicting the future.
The human subconscious mind is always running. For some information received from the outside, the conscious mind may have stopped paying attention, but the subconscious mind is constantly analyzing and sorting it out.
For example, if you dream about the death of a relative, the real reason is most likely that your subconscious mind has noticed that the relative's health condition is deteriorating, or that the relative's mental state is poor, or that the relative has certain behaviors, such as being drunk. Driving and acting aggressively and taking risks may lead to negative consequences.
The subconscious is aware of these things, and then expresses them in the dream, forming a dream of "dreaming about the death of a loved one".
In addition, there is a psychological phenomenon called "survivor bias", that is, people will only pay attention to dreams that have been fulfilled, and will subconsciously forget about dreams that have not been fulfilled, let alone mention or tell others. , combined with the two phases, there is a phenomenon in which many people claim to have "dream prediction".
In fact, there is absolutely no relationship between the two. There is no dream that predicts the future. It is just a coincidence.
Lu Ming said: "I know what you mean. Indeed, if Sun Lide had a very real dream about a plane crash, or if he had an ominous premonition in his heart when he saw the plane, then he The fact that his mental state was affected can indeed be reasonably explained. It is also possible that he casually wrote down the crashed flight in his dream on paper. As for later, flight EU7655 actually crashed, nothing more It’s just an incredible coincidence.”
Lu Qingliang said: "We can't rule out this possibility."
Lu Ming nodded: "Indeed."
Zhang Dingshan shook his head: "The superiors will not accept this explanation."
He Wei emphasized: "Whether a thing is true or not is only related to itself and has nothing to do with whether other people accept it."
Zhang Dingshan said: "What we have to do is to try to eliminate any other possibilities so that the superiors have to accept this explanation. Of course, if in the process of eliminating other possibilities, we find that a certain possibility cannot be ruled out, , there are even serious suspicions, so let’s continue the investigation.”
There was silence in the conference room for a moment. Afterwards, Lu Qingliang murmured: "I can't think of where to start."
This matter was so baffling, it’s no wonder that the security officers’ investigation ultimately found nothing.
"The security officers have made a lot of speculations and conjectures about this matter. Among them, I feel that this conjecture is very reasonable. Maybe we can start from this."
Lu Ming turned the information in his hand to that page.
In this conjecture, the security officer responsible for investigating the matter believed that Sun Lide could predict in advance that flight EU7655 was about to crash, and that Sun Lide later died of cardiac arrest, combining these two things Get up and look at it.
Further analysis shows that it is basically impossible for Sun Lide to come up with this prediction on his own. It was most likely that a certain force or individual told him this prediction.
Let’s leave aside how that force or individual made this prediction, and only analyze its intentions.
That is, why did it tell Sun Lide this prediction? What purpose does it want to achieve with this? What kind of reaction does it want Sun Lide to make?
If you think about it with this logic, this question seems to have an answer.
That was the death of Sun Lide shortly thereafter.
That organization, force or individual told Sun Lide that the purpose of this prediction was to hope that Sun Lide would "die".
Of course, "death" here is questionable. Here, the security guard guessed that Sun Lide was just faking his own death, and that he could use this fake death to escape and reasonably "call his curtain" from this world and withdraw from this world.
Comprehensive analysis informed Sun Lide that flight EU7655 would soon crash without any human factors and simply due to an accident. The intention became "to prove certain capabilities to Sun Lide in exchange for Sun Lide's cooperation."
As for Sun Lide's cooperation, within this set of logic, it is obvious that he "faked his own death to escape." As for after the fake death?
I'm afraid the only possibility is to join that force or organization.
"Another faked death to escape."
Lu Ming couldn't help but complain.
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