Rebirth 79: I opened a bank in the United States

As the saying goes, only by giving up can you gain.

After satisfying the psychological expectations, Carter's body paid the price for the psychological pleasure. As the saying goes, "Eating a banquet makes you feel good for a while, but you lie down in the anorectal hospital." After returning home that night, Carter's stomach revolted.

Not to mention the pain, I suffered from vomiting and diarrhea all night (a true story, I once ate hot pot with a friend in Shanghai who doesn’t eat spicy food at all, and turned around and vomited afterward), so I came to Kidder’s company the next day.

Carter looked particularly depressed.

"Mr. Black, good morning! It's half an hour before the market opens. Do you want to take a rest? You didn't seem to have a good rest last night."

Looking at Carter's languid expression, Julian smiled ambiguously. He was young and rich, and even if he looked crooked, he could still stand up to others. What's more, Carter's appearance was not bad, but very handsome. Appeared

Julian was not surprised at all by the scene before him, but he kindly reminded him if he wanted to go to the lounge to take a rest.

"No, it's just right. There's still some time before the market opens. Let's see what stocks you want to recommend to me. You should have done your homework when you went back last night, right?"

When seeing Julian off last night, Carter mentioned that he would invite him to dinner tomorrow to talk about money-making plans. Carter didn’t believe that he could be unprepared. Someone who just negotiated a big client and then made no preparation at all was destined to be there.

He couldn't stay in the workplace. Besides, even without his words, if six million US dollars of funds came in, would he just let it go?

"Of course, this list is all the goals I compiled last night, which should be more in line with your ideas."

Julian smiled and pulled out a watch from in front of him and handed it to Carter. When Carter looked through it, he introduced:

"The companies above are all seriously overvalued. For example, the Victor tractor manufacturer, even though it says it's a tractor, in fact, this company makes tank chassis. The Vietnam War has already begun.

It's over, but investors believe that even if the war is over, they can still build tractors. After the war, a large number of soldiers retire and return to their hometowns, which will inevitably increase the demand for agricultural machinery, so after the war, they

Not only did the stock price not fall, it actually rose by five percentage points.”

"But in the past four years, their earnings have been decreasing. The price-to-earnings ratio is getting bigger and bigger. It is obviously on a downward trend, and it may fall sharply at some point, so I put it first on the list."

"Can you show me their profit reports for the past four years?"

Just listening to the description, Carter also agrees with Julian's point of view. The logic of the company's stock price rise makes sense, but Carter has to do his own calculations as to whether he will really enter the market.

Listed companies have this advantage. Their financial reports must be disclosed to shareholders, so it is easy for others to check. Now that the target has been recommended to Carter, Julian will definitely not make unprepared mistakes. He immediately gets it again

Submit a stack of detailed financial reports to Carter.

Carter couldn't understand complicated financial reports. But he could still do simple addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. After roughly dividing the company's four-year comprehensive net profit, he found that their annual profit growth rate was less than 8%.

...

It seems to be positive growth, but the growth is relatively slow, but don’t forget the inflation in these years. The annual profit growth of 8% is probably not as fast as the inflation!

To say it is positive growth, it is better to say it is completely negative growth... According to the method learned from a friend who was a stock trader in his previous life, Carter used the tractor company's price-earnings ratio to divide the growth rate he calculated and found that the company was indeed

Seriously overestimated.

The peg value has reached an exaggerated 3.4, which means that the company's market value has exceeded its own value by 3.4 times. Of course, this algorithm is also a very theoretical value, but that's it, Carter's operation

It also caught Julian's attention.

After staring at Carter for a long time, Julian suddenly asked:

"Carter, do you know Peter Lynch?"

"Huh? What?"

Carter, who was mentally calculating how much to invest in this short sale, was stunned when Julian asked him.

"That's Peter Lynch from Magellan Fund, or do you know someone from them? Peter Lynch likes to use your algorithm. Use the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the profit growth rate to determine whether the company's market value is overvalued or overvalued.

underestimate."

"Really? That...that's quite a coincidence..."

Carter awkwardly made a haha. How could he, a financial novice, know so much about the investment celebrities and Wall Street tycoons of this era? In addition to knowing a guy named Buffett who likes to sell lunches, there is also a gambler named Soros.

, what else does he know?

Unknowingly, I seemed to have copied something from a certain existing big shot. And someone recognized him at a glance. It felt like... I traveled back in time to 2001 with you. I planned to become a copywriter and just copied a song "Double Festival".

After "Stick", someone directly pointed out that it was Jay Chou's song...

"Anyway, I'm very satisfied with your vision. Just choose it first and let's operate it first, or you can operate it and let me learn."

"Are you sure this is it? Don't you want to look at other companies?"

It doesn’t matter whose method it is, as long as it’s easy to use. The price-earnings ratio indicator was first invented by people at Goldman Sachs, but later it wasn’t used by everyone. Julian didn’t have the leisure to accuse Carter of plagiarizing other people’s intellectual achievements.

"Let's do some surgery on it first. It just so happens that its stock price is not high, so it's suitable for a novice like me to serve as a teaching bureau to practice my skills. How many shares do you estimate you can borrow?"

Since the peg indicator and Julian told him at the same time that the market value of this company seriously exceeded the standard, Carter had no worries. Although he seemed to have heard a friend say that stock selection cannot only rely on data. For companies in the growth stage, the price-to-earnings ratio will often be higher.

Relatively high, because they want to expand, which will take up a lot of costs, resulting in low profits, etc...

But for a tractor company, it’s not that Carter looks down on it. Where will there be a market for tractors in the future? Well, it can’t be said that there won’t be one, but the agricultural machinery market is generally just like that. The amount of farmland is constant, and naturally, it has to be used

The total amount of machinery and equipment is also constant. Therefore, you cannot describe this company as a company in the growth stage. In other words, the industry prospects are so great. No matter how it grows, where can it grow? It cannot go

Colonize Mars?

Musk wanted to hit someone after hearing this...

"I have 200,000 shares in my hand, and the company has another 150,000. I can lend them all to you at my discretion. Do you need to borrow more?"

When Carter made a decision, Julian did not hesitate to give out his "last bottom", which was 350,000 shares that could be directly mobilized. This accounted for about 15.9% of the company's outstanding shares. Victor La

The machine manufacturer has issued a total of 2.2 million outstanding shares, and this information is stated on the list.

After doing some calculations, Carter understood the situation. Then he gritted his teeth and said decisively:

"Borrow! How can such a small amount be enough? Either don't buy it, or buy it bigger. I want to borrow another 350,000 shares, can I do it?"

"Borrow another 350,000 shares? That's 700,000 shares...Selling such a large number of liquid stocks at once, I'm afraid...I'm afraid, young people are a bit ruthless?!"