rebirth against the times

At ten o'clock in the morning on September 15, Lehman Brothers officially submitted a bankruptcy application. Lehman's debt reached 613 billion yuan. The bankruptcy exceeded the bankruptcy of Drexel Securities in 1990 and became the largest investment in the history of the United States.

Bank bankruptcy case. I thought this would be the end of the subprime mortgage crisis, but who would have thought that the bankruptcy of Lehman would soon have a chain reaction. Affected by this, the world's major stock markets fell sharply, and companies such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley received large amounts of money.

The stock price of the divestment application also plummeted. The financial tsunami sweeping the world has officially begun.

Maybe the atmosphere was too dull, or maybe life needs humor. Ten minutes later, something happened that was not enough to affect the overall situation, but was indeed very bizarre and funny. An account of Lehman Corporation, which had officially declared bankruptcy, was about to be frozen.

He actually received a huge sum of 300 million euros.

"Damn it, although I declared bankruptcy, I am not a beggar. Is this someone doing charity?" Mr. Lei, who had not had time to leave his job, looked confused. What is the situation? Check it for me. It turns out that it is the German National Development

According to the foreign exchange swap agreement, the bank transferred 300 million euros to the account of Lehman Brothers that was about to be frozen. The transfer of 300 million euros to the bankrupt company made it clear that it was nothing, because the account was frozen, and all incoming funds were used to repay debts.

, can never go back.

While Mr. Lei and others were confused, Germany was in an uproar. What's going on? 300 million euros is enough for everyone in the country to drink a large bottle of beer. Who is so fucking confused? He must be held accountable.

Later, the German court stood up and said, "Look, brothers, I will find out who is responsible for this."

The first person to be investigated was the CEO. The executive said that he knew that the money would be transferred in accordance with the agreement that day. As for whether to cancel the huge transaction, it was decided by the board of directors at a meeting.

The court took a look and found that since it was decided by the board of directors, it checked the chairman. The chairman said that they had not received the risk assessment report and could not hold meetings and make decisions in time. The report did not come and the decision-making could not be carried out. Why did the report not come? The secretary of the board of directors

I called the International Business Department to request the risk assessment report, but the line was always busy. I wanted to call again after a while. Why was the line always busy? The manager of the International Business Department was going to take the whole family to a concert over the weekend and was calling to book tickets in advance.

The deputy manager was busy with other things and had no time to care about Lehman.

Well, you are all senior leaders of the company, you are all leaders, and you all have your reasons. I can’t afford to offend you. But theoretically speaking, if there is a problem at the senior level, the middle-level executive agency still has the ability to save it. Why can’t the middle level save it? Anyway, give it to me.

Let's find a scapegoat and let everyone watch?

The senior manager responsible for handling Lehman Brothers business said that he was drinking coffee in the break room at the time and asked the clerk to follow the news online and report to him immediately if there was news about Lehman Brothers.

The clerk did not want to take the blame. He said: "At 10:03, I saw the news about Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy protection on the Internet. I quickly ran to the manager's office. He was not in the office. I left a note on

On the table, he will see it when he comes back."

But coincidentally, the manager did not come back and did not see it. The manager of the credit department said: "I met the clerk in the corridor and he told me the news of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. I believe in the professionalism of the business managers and other professionals.

I won’t make stupid mistakes, it’s okay, they will take care of it.”

The manager of the company's public relations department said that Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy was a foregone conclusion. He wanted to talk to the CEO about the matter, but he had to meet with a few guests in the morning and wanted to talk in the afternoon, within a few hours.

This is the whole process. From the program point of view, there seems to be no mistakes. No one responsible can be found, or maybe they all made mistakes and made a collective mistake.

At the end of the investigation, nothing happened. Because there was no specific person responsible, everyone had problems. A loss of 300 million euros! According to the results of the investigation, the main reasons for this major loss are: First, the risk of the bank’s top decision-making level Poor awareness, insufficient preparation for the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and failure to formulate appropriate emergency plans in advance; second, the bank's internal business departments did not communicate smoothly, and coordination between each other was not timely; third, the bank's internal emergency measures Incomplete. This is not a problem of academic qualifications, knowledge structure, or work experience, but a problem of human nature. Germans have always been known for their rigor, but sometimes this advantage may turn into a disadvantage. Step by step, everyone performs his or her duties. You do your job and I do mine. Normally, this kind of bureaucracy operates well and is as precise as a machine. But at critical moments, it loses its subjective initiative and those who are actively responsible, and it will make big mistakes. wrong.

In fact, the same is true for this subprime mortgage crisis and the ongoing financial crisis. When the avalanche comes, no snowflake is innocent, and when the flash flood comes, no drop of water thinks that it is guilty. In this crisis, perhaps everyone will not I felt I was wrong, but I did do something wrong. It was everyone who made the same mistake that created the huge crisis. But the so-called "crisis" is only relative, and other people's "crisis" may be your own "opportunity." When others are greedy, I am fearful; when others are fearful, I am greedy." The one who was repeating these words was Bai Shuo. Amid the fear of the whole world, he and his team were greedily sucking in huge profits at this moment.

"Continue to increase the leverage, even bigger." At this time, in the studio, Bai Shuo kept giving instructions.

"Bai, our leverage has reached a crazy level, and we really can't increase it any more." William said helplessly.

"This opportunity is rare. Maybe there will never be another opportunity like this again. No matter what you think of, I want greater profits." Bai Shuo said loudly to everyone.

At this time Hans spoke: "Bai, I know there is a trading loophole in Weitong Securities. For customers with a certain amount of funds in their accounts, their settlement cycle will generally be delayed for several hours, and different transaction types There will also be a certain delay in settlement between them.”

When Bai Shuo and Liang Ying heard what Hans said, they both looked at each other. This was a very bold proposal. Not only did it involve huge risks, but if the operation was done carelessly and the gap could not be filled in time, it would be easily detected. Illegal operation. Bai Shuo temporarily shelved this proposal and continued to think of ways to raise funds as a last-ditch effort. In this operation, Bai Shuo gathered all the funds that could be mobilized, whether it was Huaying Group, Shengshi Huazhang It was two companies in Siam, and even the pocket money left by Cao An and others for himself was plundered. The amount of funds was unimaginable, but Bai Shuo felt that this was not enough, and he wanted more. After all, opportunities like this don't come often. The stakes in this battle are very important. If you win, you will dominate the world, and if you lose, your body will be wiped out.

The chain reaction of Lehman's collapse came faster than expected. In addition to the stock market, customers of investment banks felt that it was not safe to put their money in investment banks, and runs began to occur everywhere. Then a conduction effect occurred, and other countries'

Investment banks are worried that major U.S. banks will go bankrupt like Lehman and begin to pay out funds. Market funds have become extremely tight.

On the morning of the 16th, everyone in Bai Shuo had gathered in the studio. Bai Shuo had already formulated a crazier plan last night and would implement it today. "Start Hans." Bai Shuo finally started Hans' transaction.

He knew that he only had five hours to complete this crazy transaction. Seeing Bai Shuo start to take action, Liang Ying also picked up the phone: "Liu Shu, let's start." This time they

The target is AIG, which ranks 18th in the world and third in the insurance industry. For AIG, Bai Shuo has done a lot of research and understanding, and has made a long-term layout. Now it is time to show his sword.

On this day, the global stock market continued to fall, but AIG's stock performance was particularly eye-catching. It continued to fall shortly after the opening. Half an hour later, the market reported that AIG had suffered a large number of surrenders and CDS redemptions. The surrender caused the market to lose confidence.

performance, and these large number of CDs are the work of Bai Shuo. This is also the only CDS contract left in Liu Shu's hands. He did not expect that it would play such a role until this time.

Bai Shuo never dreamed that his saucy operation would bring a series of chain reactions to AIG. Originally, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were prepared to help AIG obtain a loan of 70-75 billion, but the two companies ultimately rejected the loan after evaluation.

The latter three major rating agencies unanimously lowered AIG's debt credit rating (Moody's lowered AIG's rating by two notches from aa3 to a2; Standard & Poor's lowered AIG's rating by three notches, from aa- to a-; Fitch Ratings lowered AIG's rating by two notches, from aa- to a-;

The rating was also lowered two notches, from aa- to a). Aig's stock price plummeted. Hans closed his position in Aig stock within the specified time, but at this time he had made 50% of the profit. As of the close of the day, Aig's stock price

Plunged 65%.

At this time, Bai Shuo once again became the idol worshiped by everyone. Hans was still frightened until the stock market closed. Weilun shook his head and said: "It's incredible, Bai, you have given us so many surprises these days, you are simply a genius.

."

Bai Shuo shook his head and said: "From AIG's operating performance data in the first three quarters of 2008, we can see that AIG's core insurance business did not suffer losses, but grew by 6.8% compared with the same period in 2007. But investment

The decline in revenue and losses in CDS products have led to a sharp deterioration in AIG's financial situation. Because of this, everyone guessed that they were very sensitive to CDS. I asked Liu Shu to cash in the CDS and reveal the news in a high-profile way. The bet was

This behavior became the last straw that crushed aig. Of course, the main reason was that aig itself had a big problem. Even if we did nothing, aig would still be crushed, but we don’t know when it will break out. We

All it does is induce some factors to erupt at the time we want.”

"The important thing is that you succeeded." Robert said: "No matter what, today's battle will be a commendable battle. If my guess is right, Bai, your operation today will also bring some chain reactions."

."

Bai Shuo suddenly asked: "Do you think AIG will become the next Lehman?"

Everyone was divided into two opinions for a while, and they were discussing with each other. Bai Shuo had already made some judgments about AIG before, so he stopped expressing his opinions at this time. Others thought that the US government had just said that it would not use taxpayers' money.

You will never slap yourself in the face when you rescue the market. Lehman was an example before. Some people believe that the current crisis has exceeded the expectations of the US government. Not saving Lehman before was the biggest mistake. This time the US government will learn a lesson...

…

At this time, Liang Ying said firmly: "AIG will not fail!"

Everyone looked at him, "Is there any reason?" William asked.

"AIG is different from Lehman. It has collateral and assets. The flight we took was rented from AIG. The construction of the city was undertaken by AIG. AIG's insurance involves workers' pensions and millions of teachers' pensions. AIG

There are 81 million life insurance policies in the world, with a total value of 1.9 trillion yuan, and AIG involves banks all over the world and people all over the world. If AIG goes bankrupt, it will trigger a global panic and people's life insurance will be affected.

Insurance will fail, people will not be able to get their pensions, and teachers’ pensions will turn into bubbles. ZF will not bail out Wall Street, but ZF must maintain social stability and protect the interests of the majority of people. AIG, ZF is so big

We can't let AIG go bankrupt. This is the real too-big-to-fail situation!" Liang Ying expressed her analysis.

Robert and Liang Ying were right, and a chain reaction soon followed, just as Liang Ying had imagined. That evening, the U.S. government made an emergency announcement: In compliance with Article 13, paragraph 3, of the Federal Reserve Act 6, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was authorized to provide aig

Issue 85 billion yuan in emergency loans. The loan window is valid for 24 months, and the interest rate is the 3-month LIBOR rate plus 850 basis points. To protect the interests of taxpayers from being harmed, the loan will be pledged with all the assets of AIG.

As a condition for providing the loan, the US government will hold 79.9% of AIG's shares and have the right to veto the dividends of ordinary and preferred shareholders. On the same day, the US government also fired a large number of AIG executives and replaced them with representatives

ZF personnel, this also means that the U.S. ZF took over the group following the takeover model of the "two bedrooms".

As soon as the news came out, the market was in an uproar again, but the most exciting thing was an old man in his 60s in a luxurious villa. He was Mr. Lei, the former boss of Lehman. At this time, he seemed to be 10 years older.

There was no glory like before. However, his temper remained undiminished and he smashed the TV, tables, chairs, and wine glasses in front of him. "The ones in front were saved, and the ones behind were also saved. Why didn't you save me or Lehman? This is

Why, why..." At this moment, he felt extremely aggrieved and angry. Bear Stearns was rescued by the US government, the "two bedrooms" were rescued, and even AIG, which had problems immediately after, was rescued, alone

Lehman Brothers, who was caught in the middle, was abandoned. He couldn't figure it out, but people would continue to speculate and analyze this matter for a long time, and it might become a permanent mystery.?