rebirth against the times

Bai Shuo was indeed shocked by Professor Xiong's question. He didn't expect that Professor Xiong, who had just been angrily criticized by him, would kick the ball back immediately, posing such a problem for himself. It can even be said that this is a world-class problem.

Difficulty. Even the top experts and scholars dare not say that they have really found a good medicine to boost China's economy.

Seeing that the scene had become awkward again, the host felt very embarrassed. He originally wanted to change the topic to help Bai Shuo, but he saw that Professor Xiong was so aggressive that he would not give up. Even if he wanted to help Bai Shuo, he could not help Bai Shuo.

I definitely won’t be able to pass Professor Xiong’s test.

Now he only hopes that some expert, scholar or official with the same power as Professor Xiong on the stage will come forward to persuade and give both parties a step forward. However, after repeated observation, he did not know what the guests on the stage had in mind, and no one was willing to do so.

Express your opinion.

The host then looked at the national leader who was attending the forum. But although the leader saw his signal, he still looked calm and leisurely picked up the tea in front of him and drank it slowly.

stand up.

"National prosperity is inseparable from economic development. Economic development is the prerequisite for improving national strength and stabilizing other aspects." At this time, Bai Shuo in the audience said slowly through the microphone in his hand.

The host looked surprised and happy. What he was happy about was that he no longer had to put the whole venue into such an embarrassing situation. What was surprising was that he didn’t know what kind of words Bai Shuo would say next. If he said something more shocking, he might even

If it causes uncontrollable impact, then he, as a host, may no longer have to work.

Bai Shuo continued to speak slowly in a calm tone: "In the face of the intensification of the international financial crisis and the slowdown in domestic inflation pressure, from July 2008 to the end of 2008, the central bank adjusted the macro-control measures of financial institutions and lowered the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates three times in a row.

, lowered the deposit reserve ratio twice, canceled the constraints on commercial banks' credit planning, and guided commercial banks to expand their total loans. On November 5, 2008, at the State Council executive meeting, it was proposed to implement "active fiscal policies" and

'Moderately loose monetary policy'.

"Humph, I have mentioned these just now, do you need to elaborate on them again?" Professor Xiong said dissatisfied.

Bai Shuo: "I don't want to elaborate again, I just want to explain that you, a senior expert and scholar, are not the only ones who know these things. And these things have a certain role in what I am going to say next, so please don't interrupt Professor Xiong without reason.

My speech.”

Professor Xiong was scolded by Bai Shuo again and felt angry, but due to the seriousness of the venue, he could not get angry.

"According to Keynesian theory, government investment mainly stimulates economic growth through the multiplier effect. The expansion of government investment mainly relies on two aspects: fiscal expenditure and transfer payments. Government investment directly forms effective demand and purchasing power. On the one hand, government investment has a multiplier effect.

Increase the gross national product, on the other hand, increase residents' disposable income through transfer payments, thereby increasing their investment demand and consumption demand. ZF investment has a positive role in increasing employment opportunities and promoting economic growth. Our country is responding to the financial crisis

With an investment of 4 trillion yuan, we started a large-scale investment plan at the beginning of this year. These government investments guide and drive the growth of social investment, thereby stimulating economic growth and playing an important role in the sustained and stable development of our country's economy."

At this time, Professor Xiong couldn't help but interjected again: "I have stated my opinions before. You only see the positive effects in theory, and you only see the positive effects of expanding government investment. In fact, government investment may cause crowding out."

This is a problem we should pay attention to in reality. In response to the financial crisis this time, due to the expansion of government investment, the phenomenon of "state advancement and private retreat" is likely to occur in some industries. This is the result of the crowding out effect of active fiscal policy.

.”

Seeing that Bai Shuo seemed to be angry again, Professor Xiong immediately explained: "Since it is a forum, I can also discuss what you said in a timely manner. I am not interrupting your speech."

Seeing that Professor Xiong seemed a little afraid of Bai Shuo's anger, the audience burst into thin laughter.

Bai Shuo actually didn't mean to get angry. In fact, he was not too well prepared for those speeches just now. He just read some information about the economic crisis before and combined some memories of later generations to talk about it randomly. He wanted to ease the embarrassment first.

The situation. Now that Professor Xiong has seized some key points to counterattack, Bai Shuo is still a little difficult to deal with. Taking advantage of the chaos on the court, Bai Shuo is trying hard to recall and organize the things that can be used in his memory.

But the scene did not give Bai Shuo much time, and everyone's attention soon shifted to Bai Shuo. From the perspective of the stage, it was easy to see that Bai Shuo was in a state of wandering thoughts. Professor Xiong couldn't help but feel proud.

got up, and the host seemed more and more nervous.

"What Professor Xiong said makes some sense, but everything has advantages and disadvantages. I think the most important thing is to look at how to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages."

At this time, a voice came from one side of the venue. Bai Shuo looked for the reputation, and it was Xiao Zhen who stood up and took over the problem faced by Bai Shuo. He sighed in his heart: "Brother Zhen, this god is here to fill the seat.

So timely.”

At this time, the staff on the other side quickly handed Xiao Zhen a microphone.

Xiao Zhen said again through the microphone: "Of course, another major measure of active fiscal policy is tax leverage. Due to the impact of internal and external factors of the financial crisis, our country's enterprises, especially export-oriented enterprises, have been severely hit. In order to reduce the burden on enterprises, tax cuts

Converting profits has become an inevitable measure. Since the financial crisis, our country has revised various tax laws and implemented structural tax reduction plans. According to relevant predictions, this year will reduce the burden on enterprises and residents by about 500 billion yuan. So this will be real.

The policy of making concessions and benefiting the people is not what Professor Xiong said: the country advances and the people retreat."

"You...who are you?" Professor Xiong looked a little angry when he saw someone standing up to refute him again.

The host was surprised and immediately said: "Our guest who is speaking, please introduce yourself first, please?"

Xiao Zhen said solemnly: "My name is Xiao Zhen, and I am just a small county party secretary in China. As far as I understand, the most important thing in implementing proactive fiscal policies is to expand government investment without increasing the tax burden on micro entities. At this time, active fiscal policies can only be implemented by issuing national bonds. In response to the financial crisis, my country increased the issuance of national bonds and allowed the issuance of local bonds for financing and increased local investment. By the end of 2007, the balance of my country's national debt accounted for the proportion of GDP It was only 22%, lower than the internationally recognized warning line of 45%. During the same period, it was 71% in the United States, 67% in the Eurozone, and 16% in Japan. That is to say, in terms of my country’s economic development level, my country’s national debt burden rate is relatively low. In the past few years, our country's economy has maintained a growth rate of about 9%, and fiscal revenue has maintained a growth rate of about 20%. There is a large space for debt issuance. Generally speaking, the implementation of active fiscal policies will lead to an increase in the fiscal deficit, but currently my country's fiscal deficit accounts for The proportion of GDP is about 0.5%, and the fiscal deficit rate has been lower than the European Union's 3% safety alert standard for many years, and has not exceeded the range of my country's comprehensive national strength. Therefore, the concerns raised by Professor Xiong in his previous speech are largely It can be said to be unfounded worries.”

Everyone was very impressed by Xiao Zhen's speech. The short speech hit the point directly and quoted a large amount of data, which made it difficult for people to refute in a short time. Because it is difficult for ordinary people to remember so much data.

Bai Shuo was overjoyed and said to Liang Ying: "Tell me, brother Zhen is really not the county party secretary for nothing. He has also studied economic issues so deeply."

What Bai Shuo didn't expect was that Liang Ying also stood up at this time, directly took Bai Shuo's microphone and said: "There is also a moderately loose monetary policy. The central bank directly regulates the statutory deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions to customers.

Since the financial crisis in 2008, the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans of financial institutions have been lowered several times to increase liquidity. This is a signal to maintain economic growth and stabilize market expectations. By lowering interest rates, on the one hand, it can effectively reduce the capital costs of enterprises, and on the other hand, it can ensure that banks

The system has sufficient liquidity, which can provide the whole society with a loose monetary environment and encourage enterprises to carry out production and operations. The central bank also no longer imposes hard constraints on commercial credit planning, which can effectively release bank funds to make profits and inject new impetus into economic growth.

"

"Oh, by the way, I forgot to introduce myself. My name is Liang Ying and I am from Hong Kong Island."

At this time, some people at the scene who knew Liang Ying's origins all commented: "Oh, Liang Ying, the eldest son of the Liang family in Hong Kong, and the current head of the Liang family group."

After hearing everyone's discussion, if Professor Xiong doesn't care much about Bai Shuo and Xiao Zhen, then he has to pay more attention to the heritage that Liang Ying represents.

"As far as I know, the deposit reserve policy, which is the most powerful but rarely used monetary policy, is frequently used in my country. However, the excess reserve ratio of our banks is relatively high, and adjusting the deposit reserve ratio will have little impact on the bank's credit funds. , so although it is used frequently, the effect is minimal." Professor Xiong said.

Liang Ying smiled: "It doesn't matter whether the effect is great or not, but the positive signal released is the most critical. Professor Xiong cannot generalize."

"Oh, I wonder if Mr. Liang has any other advice?" Professor Xiong asked.

"It's not a matter of discussion. I'm just talking about my own thoughts. Don't forget that moderately loose monetary policy also has the effect of adjusting the money supply. In the first three quarters of 2008, the central bank's monetary policy to curb economic overheating made commercial banks less enthusiastic about lending.

Suppressed, after the international financial crisis broke out in September, although the central bank introduced favorable policies to lower both interest rates and deposit reserve ratios, it had a great impact on the confidence of banks and investors, causing banks to act cautiously in lending, making 2008

In the fourth quarter of the year, loans did not increase in line with the interest rate adjustment."

Liang Ying paused and then said: "But with the large-scale implementation of the 4 trillion investment plan this year, banks' enthusiasm for lending has been greatly strengthened, and the money supply has begun to grow significantly. The annual m2 growth rate is expected to be around 25%.

Increasing the money supply can be a good hedge against the impact of the monetary policy that suppressed economic overheating in the first half of 2007-2008 and the impact of the financial crisis on m2. This is due to the enhanced multiplier effect caused by the large-scale credit injection by commercial banks.

The result..."

Bai Shuo was stunned by Liang Ying's speech and asked blankly: "When did you study the domestic economy so thoroughly?"

Liang Ying grinned and said, "Do you think my "Going North Plan" is just for fun?"

In the following time, Xiao Zhen, Bai Shuo, and Liang Ying took turns to speak, and refuted Professor Xiong's previous views one by one. Professor Xiong could still argue with reason at first, but as his remarks began to change,

Some contradictions in the book were constantly dug out by the three people, and Professor Xiong finally became speechless.

Bai Shuo finally made a shocking statement again, directly pointing out that Professor Xiong is a pseudo-expert who is filled with personal emotions and personal goals, disregards basic facts, and tramples on economic laws.

The hundreds of guests present also witnessed a lively debate. Three unknown young people actually defeated an expert professor who had been famous for many years. It was amazing. Bai Shuo, Xiao Zhen, and Liang Yingsan

After they finished speaking, there was a burst of applause. This was not only an affirmation of the three people, but also a ruthless ridicule of Professor Xiong.

At this time, the host was surprised to find that although the weather was still a little cool, Professor Xiong had already taken off his suit and put it on the back of the chair, and the back of his shirt was already wet. Maybe this was due to the sweat.

The host waited for the applause from the audience to subside and said: "We have just witnessed a very exciting and heated discussion. The views of both sides are innovative and have their own characteristics. Of course, the views of either side still need time to be proved..."

The host originally wanted to relieve Professor Xiong and ease the atmosphere on the court. But at this time, Professor Xiong picked up the microphone on the table again and stood up tremblingly. He also wanted to make a last ditch effort.

, save some face for yourself.

Seeing this, the host quickly stepped forward to help Professor Xiong. However, Professor Xiong pushed the host away and walked to the center of the podium, glaring angrily at the two locations where Bai Shuo, Liang Ying and Xiao Zhen were.

"Young people, it's understandable to be frivolous. But you only look at the present and don't care about the long term. Even if, as you said, the current policy has achieved certain results, what will happen next? Continue to follow the old path and continue this cycle? You have always been

We are debating the current crisis, but what I am asking is what kind of cure is available for China’s future economic development. Why do you avoid talking about this issue?”

At this time, the whole place fell silent. Indeed, although the debate had been lively just now, the discussion was all about crisis issues, but there was no mention of China's future economic development.

Professor Xiong burst out laughing: "Childish! Ridiculous! You guys are asking, who is going to answer me?"

At this time, someone in the audience stood up silently: "Let me answer you..."