rebirth against the times

"General Motors, a century-old company, was once the world's largest automaker. However, its losses have exceeded US$80 billion in the past four years, and last year it gave up its position as the world's largest automaker to a Japanese car company..."

"In the first half of last year, international crude oil prices rose by nearly 150 meters per barrel. Due to high fuel consumption and high prices, the American automobile industry represented by General Motors was greatly affected. General Motors' sharp decline in sales led to a decline in its performance.

, while making more impairment provisions; in addition, its subsidiary General Motors Financial Corporation was greatly affected by the financial crisis. The company is mainly engaged in automobile loans and other businesses. The decline in automobile sales has led to a smaller business volume, and the non-performing loan ratio has increased rapidly.

.”

"From an internal perspective, GM's labor costs remain high, which is also a fatal flaw. Its 100,000 local workers enjoy an hourly wage of up to 74 meters and an annual salary of 150,000 meters. Moreover, the American Automobile Workers Union has sought benefits for its members.

Generous retirement benefits, with nearly 500,000 retired employees and their families enjoying lifelong pensions and medical insurance, have also aggravated the operating crisis of automobile companies to a certain extent. The average educational level of this company is that of auto union workers who have graduated from middle school than workers with a doctorate degree.

The income of university professors is 57.6% higher. Calculations show that for every car that General Motors rolls off the assembly line, the automaker needs to pay 4,000 yuan for medical care, pensions and labor union expenses."

"In addition, although the current oil price has fallen to a very low level, the international financial crisis has led to a decline in global automobile demand, and the operating situation of automobile companies has worsened. The current stock price of General Motors is less than 2 yuan per share.

The total market value is only more than one billion yuan, which can be said to have reached the floor..."

In the conference room of the Muguang Group headquarters, Liang Ying, Zhong Pengcheng, Cao An, Zhu Zhu, Tian Yu, William, Xiao Lin, Anna... and others were sitting around the conference table. At the other end of the conference room, a nearly 100-inch display

On the screen, Hans was explaining General Motors' current predicament to everyone through video conferencing.

"Damn it, it took me a long time to understand that General Motors suffers when the oil price is high, but it suffers even more when the oil price drops... Such a company will be ruined if it is not dead, haha..." After listening to Hans

To introduce, Cao An slammed the table and shouted.

"It's not that the oil price is low, but it's that the reason for the low oil price is the financial crisis. It has been hit by the financial crisis again," Zhong Pengcheng explained.

"Isn't that different? In short, there is no way to save..." Cao An said unconvinced.

"Okay, let's hear what Hans says first..." Bai Shuo interrupted Cao An and asked Hans: "Hans, what are General Motors' plans now, and what is the attitude of the American government?"

Hans immediately replied: "After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, General Motors appealed to the US government for assistance, and mentioned that if it did not receive assistance, according to the rate of General Motors' monthly consumption of 2 billion yuan, it would be in February this year.

The monthly ammunition is exhausted and the food is exhausted... However, the attitudes of all walks of life in the United States on whether to bail out the automobile industry are different. There are many voices of opposition. Many politicians believe that the financial situation faced by the three major automobile companies is not a national problem, but their own problem. They do not support it.

Using taxpayers’ money to compensate for the poor management of car companies. I feel that if we do that, it will only allow these car companies to continue and make more serious mistakes.”

"Of course, some politicians hope to introduce a second economic stimulus package. Because the 700 billion yuan financial rescue plan previously passed by the US government does not include loans to the auto industry, some politicians even proposed legislation to rescue the auto market so that the US auto industry can

Received 'emergency, restricted financial assistance' under the $700 billion rescue plan..."

"There are also suggestions that the entire automobile industry should file for bankruptcy protection just like the US airline industry after 9/11, so that they can be reborn. This suggestion has been strongly opposed by some people. They believe that no consumers are willing to

Buying a car from a company that has filed for bankruptcy..."

"Didn't you say that we will run out of ammunition and food in February? It's already May, this old dog is very good at acting and can resist..." Cao An said happily.

Zhong Pengcheng glanced at Cao An and said: "To put it bluntly, there is also a game between General Motors and the American government. Who will throw out his trump card without reservation..."

"Yes." Hans continued: "In fact, in February this year, at the request of the US government, General Motors launched a restructuring plan that included layoffs and burden reduction, and asked the government to provide another 16.6 billion yuan in aid loans. However, 3

At the end of the month, U.S. President Joe Biden vetoed GM's restructuring plan on the grounds that GM only wanted money and ignored restructuring, requiring GM to come up with a restructuring plan that is competitive in the global market within 60 days. GM CEO Lao Wa also announced

Resign from office."

"After that, General Motors' new CEO, Lao Han, began to work hard to reorganize GM. During this period, GM successively received loan assistance of up to 19.4 billion US dollars from the US government, and began to discuss restructuring matters with the United Automobile Workers Union and creditors.

Negotiate.”

"At the end of April, GM launched an improved restructuring plan, which required bondholders to give up 27 billion yuan of debt in exchange for 10% of GM's shares after reorganization. However, this debt-for-equity swap plan requires the approval of 90% of creditors.

Support. As soon as this plan came out, analysts generally believed that convincing bondholders to accept such an arrangement was an impossible task. It was inevitable that GM would go bankrupt."

At this time, Liang Ying stood up and asked: "Hans, the information you provided is indeed enough, but the key is how to analyze it. Now that you are the person who knows this information best, what do you think the future prospects of General Motors are?"

Hans paused and continued: "Liang, you want me to express my own judgment directly, right?"

"um, yes……"

Hans thought for a moment and said, "Well, to be honest, I think it's less likely that General Motors will go bankrupt."

"Oh! How can you see it?" Bai Shuo asked in surprise.

Hans continued: "On the one hand, its sales have declined but it has not stopped production; on the other hand, the automobile industry involves many employment problems, and the government is more likely to eventually rescue it. The bankruptcy of any one of the three major automobile companies will lead to several

Millions of people are unemployed, which will cause a series of chain reactions. As the number of unemployed people continues to increase during the financial crisis, no one wants to see business closures trigger large-scale unemployment. There is another most important reason..."

At this point, just as everyone was listening intently to this most important reason, Hans paused for a while, picked up the water glass on the side and took a sip of water.

"I said, do you have to drink water at this time? You can't say it all at once..." Cao An shouted.

Hans smiled: "Dear fat man, in the words of you Chinese people, am I just trying to sell something...?"

"Haha, I see that you have not only learned a lot of things from our country, but you are becoming more and more like a Chinese..." Cao An said happily.

Hans obviously agreed with Cao An's statement and showed a very proud smile.

"Okay, without further ado, let me continue. The most important thing is that since taking office, the current President of the United States, Xiao Hei, has actively implemented the New Deal to relieve the impact of the crisis. Although he vetoed General Motors' restructuring plan, it did not

It means that he is unwilling to rescue General Motors, which only means that he is not satisfied with the current method."

"It is said that Xiao Hei made a special trip to the Presidential Palace to meet with the old president when he was still campaigning last year, urging the government to help the automobile manufacturing industry, the pillar industry of the United States, get out of trouble and pass the second economic stimulus plan as soon as possible. This shows that Xiao Hei is very interested in the automobile industry in the United States.

The industry takes it very seriously. Of course, this proposal was ultimately rejected..."

"Ah?!..." Some people expressed surprise.

"Then what else is there to say? The current boss of the US government may be a GM fan. If GM goes bankrupt, he will definitely not stand idly by..." Cao An said.

"Hans, I don't quite agree with your point of view." Bai Shuo said suddenly.

Everyone looked at Bai Shuo in surprise. Hans also stopped talking and was ready to listen carefully to Bai Shuo's opinions.

Bai Shuo tried hard to recall the memory of General Motors' bankruptcy, and combined it with the information provided by Hans so far, and analyzed: "Hans, I understand that Lao Wa, who has resigned, is a very strong person and has always refused to leave General Motors.

The CEO who took the path of bankruptcy protection. If we think carefully, in fact, as early as February this year, when the US government once again rejected the General Motors restructuring plan and 'forced' Lao Wa away, maybe Xiao Hei, Lao Han and others

A clear road map has been laid out for General Motors to go bankrupt."

Bai Shuo's conclusion once again surprised everyone.

Bai Shuo continued: "Xiao Hei may indeed want to save General Motors and the American automobile industry. But there is no way of knowing how to save it. Maybe bankruptcy protection is also a way to start over. Although I can't confirm this speculation, there is one thing.

It is certain that at the end of March, along with the appointment of the CEO, there was also the question of whether GM would go bankrupt. I think maybe Xiao Hei gave Lao Han a time point.

We will try our best to rescue General Motors, but if we fail to do so, it may eventually end up on the road to bankruptcy protection."

Hans nodded and smiled: "Bai, your analysis makes sense. But the most important thing now is how long General Motors can last, or how long Xiao Hei gives Lao Han... I

It is estimated that it will be difficult for General Motors to survive the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, around July or August, there should be a result..."

"No!" Bai Shuo interrupted Hans: "We can't wait that long, this month! Hans, we will contact General Motors this month."

"So urgent?" Hans asked hesitantly.

"Well! I think Lao Han's debt-for-equity swap restructuring plan may be successful, and Xiao Hei will not give Lao Han too long. If General Motors declares bankruptcy and the US government officially intervenes, then we will not even have a bowl of soup.

I can’t even drink anymore.”

Hans nodded thoughtfully: "Bai, your judgment has always been correct. Since you think so, I will start preliminary contacts tomorrow, but the specific matters will have to wait for you to come over and make a decision..."

At this time, Zhu Zhu, who has always rarely spoken, also expressed his opinion. He believes that in the longer term, the international transfer of the automobile industry is an irreversible trend, and the high cost of the American automobile industry will force the United States to gradually withdraw from the automobile industry. In extreme cases

Next, if American automobile companies such as General Motors really go bankrupt, it will be a good opportunity for the development of the Chinese automobile industry, and the international market space for Chinese automobile companies to expand will be greater.

Finally, Zhu Zhu looked at Bai Shuo excitedly and said, "Gengzi, this is an opportunity for the rise of our country's automobile industry. I think we should pay close attention to this acquisition and merger opportunity."

Bai Shuo nodded, thought quietly for a while, then looked at Hans on the screen and asked: "Hans, if the US government really takes action when GM goes bankrupt, what method do you think it will use?"

Hans was stunned for a moment: "Bai, you want to consider how we can negotiate with General Motors based on the actions that the US government may take, right?"

"Well, yes." Bai Shuo said: "You can win every battle if you know yourself and the enemy. I believe that General Motors will also judge the possibility of the government's rescue. Of course, they should also know what they will pay once they file for bankruptcy, even if the government rescues them.

Such a price."

Hans thought for a while and said: "It is foreseeable that any rescue action by the US government will be accompanied by strict additional conditions. These conditions may include significant reductions in expenses, layoffs, etc. Sacrificing the interests of existing shareholders is also a price of the government's rescue. If according to the US

According to ZF’s 1979 rescue plan for Chrysler, most of the company’s shareholders’ equity will be forced to be transferred to ZF as compensation for ZF’s guarantee. I think this will be something that GM’s shareholders are not willing to see..."

Zhong Pengcheng continued: "I don't think we rule out the possibility of the U.S. government seeking assistance from outside the country. Just like in the past, before and after major political negotiations between our country and the United States, there was a practice of buying American cars in bulk. Maybe the United States will also use external help this time.

It's even up to us, China, to save GM from crisis..."

Zhuzi nodded and said in deep agreement: "This is what the United States has always done, diverting the crisis and letting others pay the bill..."

At this time, Liang Ying said calmly: "No matter what, even if the government takes action, it will only save this industry and this company, not the existing shareholders. This is the bargaining chip we can use before this!"

The entire discussion lasted for more than three hours. In the end, everyone reached a consensus on the comprehensive acquisition of General Motors. They would contact General Motors in the name of several companies that originally stayed in the United States. Hans will be the person in charge of this plan.

person, fully responsible for the specific affairs of the acquisition of General Motors.

A big plan that shocks the world is gradually taking shape...