Rebirth of the investment era

"Continue to drive high with inertia?"

At 9:16 in Shanghai, inside Yinghui Fund Company, in the 'Yinghui No. 1' fund product trading room, the trading team leader Yu Lei squinted at the two markets that had shown a comprehensive high opening, and was slightly surprised: “I feel that the impact of external market trends on the A-share market is somewhat out of whack!”

Liu Guanhai, the fund manager of 'Yinghui No. 1' who was sitting next to Yu Lei, chuckled and said, "Isn't this normal in the extreme bullish mood?"

"Continuing to open so high and attack hard... I always feel that it is a bit inappropriate!" Yu Lei felt a little bad in his heart, "The Shanghai Stock Index has been positive for seven consecutive years, and the profit chips accumulated in the short term are extremely generous. Coupled with the recent unwinding chips, even though the financing balance of the two cities is still soaring, the transaction volume is still rising, and the incremental capital group pouring into the market from the outside is still expanding.

However, after all, it is impossible to fully resolve the accumulated profit orders and arbitrage in the rising trend!

If the market does not have enough positive factors to continue to cooperate.

Once the accumulated profits and unwinding orders come out in a concentrated manner, it may be difficult for the incremental capital group to absorb them in an instant, and if they are unable to absorb them, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will probably turn around.

7 consecutive positives, I continued to open high and attack hard, but I felt a little uneasy in my heart. "

"On the daily trend, the degree of deviation is indeed becoming more and more exaggerated." Liu Guanhai responded, "However, there is still no problem with the trend on the weekly and monthly charts."

“I really can’t help but want to reduce my position.” Yu Lei said with emotion, “I think the 3,500-point barrier for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is not that easy to break through. After all, the range from 3,000 to 3,500 points should be the heaviest holdup in history. It should be impossible to directly cross the market without some fluctuations. Although the bull market pattern of the market has become increasingly clear and certain, I always feel that the majority of investors in the market at this moment are not expecting the market. On the other hand, it’s still a bit too optimistic.”

Liu Guanhai pondered for a moment and said: "We can't follow our feelings. We still have to respect the actual market trend and market changes. Let's take another look. I don't think it is that easy to stand firm at 3500 points, but the market is really It makes sense to continue short squeeze breakthroughs.

After all, under the influence of the continuous ultimate money-making effect.

The investment confidence of the entire market should have completely reversed compared to the previous two months.

And after the overall reversal of investment confidence, the incremental capital groups brought about, and the pursuit of the main market trend triggered by it, you should have seen it recently, it is really extremely hot.

Furthermore, the turnover of the two cities has approached the 900 billion mark.

900 billion!

This level of market trading volume and liquidity is quite sufficient, and it can fully support the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to continue its upward breakthrough. At least at this point, this volume and energy can fully support the index.

There is also the fact that although the market's short-term gains are too large, the technical deviation is too great.

However, continued good market news and emotional development still support the market's continued rise. Isn't the news about the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut next month still continuing to ferment?

This news has a more stimulating effect on the market than the previous Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the opening of stock index futures is much more beneficial.

At the same time, the external market, although the trend last night, was a bit cloudy.

But in the long-term trend, it has always been a bull market.

This stimulus to the A-share market should be mainly benign.

Of course, short-term rapid accumulation of profits and unwinding of arbitrage is indeed a problem. The Shanghai Stock Index's seven consecutive positive trends, especially the continuous positive trend of consecutive breakthroughs and sharp rises, are indeed rare. Even if there is a short-term adjustment in the follow-up, or A short-term extreme adjustment like the one last Monday should be normal.

Isn’t there a saying that says, “Bear markets are always sunny, bull markets are often plunged”?

In short, no matter how the market goes, we all respect the trend of the market. As long as the overall bull market pattern does not change, and the index, as well as the core stocks with higher weights of our fund's positions, are still running on the upward trend line, then I think we You should calm down and hold positions calmly.

Investment is inherently anti-human.

The more you can't help but want to lighten up your position and sell, the more patience you should have.

Even if we judge that there is demand and possibility of a sharp drop in the market in a short period of time, my suggestion is... we should still stay calm and wait and see, watch more and move less.

After all, no one can completely predict the short-term trend of the market.

If we reduce our positions and take profits at a short-term high, even if our judgment is correct for a while and we avoid a sharp market drop, how can we judge that the market has stabilized and buy back the chips at a relatively appropriate time? If the judgment is wrong, then under the overall bull market pattern, there is a high probability that the chips will be completely lost.

For us, this is obviously not worth the gain. "

When Yu Lei heard Liu Guanhai's words, he nodded slightly. He still fully agreed with these words. He paused for a while and continued: "Mr. Liu is right. It seems that my mentality still needs training. Indeed, you can’t be greedy in a bear market, but you have to stick to the green hills and not relax in a bull market.”

"However, looking at this high opening pattern, it does seem a bit short-term and at the end of the war." Liu Guanhai kept staring at the rapidly changing collective bidding markets of the two cities, his eyes flickered, and said, "'Big Finance' and 'Big Infrastructure' For the two core main lines of the market, under the high opening situation, the market pressure is increasing with the times. At the same time, yesterday's 'Film and Television Media', 'Technology Growth', 'Mobile Internet', and 'Smartphone Industry Chain', which had a certain profit-making effect The main lines of 'Big Consumption' and 'Big Consumption' have not fully supported the market, taking over the market trend of the 'Big Finance' and 'Big Infrastructure' main lines. Under the high opening situation, the market pressure is also increasing sharply with the times. This is not a good sign. ah!"

Following a brief exchange between the two.

The market trading time has reached 9:18.

After just three minutes of initial collective bidding, although the overall trend of the two cities is still opening higher, the indexes of each main line sector have opened higher. Compared with the times of 9:15 and 9:16, they are already higher. There are clear signs of a pullback.

Especially the two core main areas of ‘big finance’ and ‘big infrastructure’.

The index growth of many industry sectors and concept sectors such as securities, banking, insurance, Internet finance, non-public transportation, machinery and equipment, architectural decoration, building materials, commercial real estate development, steel, cement... has increased even more in just two years. In three minutes, it generally fell by about 3% to 5%.

The investor groups in the two cities paid attention to a number of popular stocks that ranked among the top 20 in terms of popularity and discussion.

For example, 'Huake Shuguang' has fallen back to the 5% increase position from the one-line daily limit opening form at 9:15, and on the market, the orders to be matched have rapidly increased to 2 after the one-line daily limit opened. Thousands of hands, and it continues to expand.

The market gain of the big monster stock ‘Blue Stone Heavy Equipment’ has also dropped from 55% at 9:15 to 76%.

‘Great Wisdom, Flush, and Oriental Fortune’ are the three Musketeers of the ‘Internet Finance’ sector.

The increase of "Great Wisdom" dropped from about 8% at 9:15 to 4%.

‘Flush’ has jumped from around 22% at 9:15 to a 75% increase.

‘Oriental Fortune’ fell back to a 33% increase from around 56% at 9:15.

As for other core component stocks in the "Internet Finance" sector, their performance is obviously not as good as these three stocks that have attracted much market attention.

‘China South Locomotive and China North Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation’ are two key weight stocks held by the main fund products of the ‘Yu Hang Series’.

The increase at this time also quickly fell from about 20% at 9:15 to about 75%.

There is also the market increase of 'Pacific Securities' at this moment, which is only 11%.

The market increase of ‘Huazhong Capital’ is only 78%, and it is still declining.

'LeTV', 'Netspeed Technology', 'Huaguo Software', 'Lixun Precision', 'Changying Precision'...these popular stocks have opened higher at the moment, all below 3%, compared to 9:15 At the same time, the gains generally fell by more than 1 point.

In short, almost all popular stocks.

As the call auction time goes by, the market gains are falling back.

Of course, the decline in the growth of these stocks, as well as the decline in the index growth of the entire market, core main line related industry sectors, and concept sectors, is not due to the reduction in active buying on the market. On the contrary, after the initial call auction of the market began today, On the market of various popular stocks, the amount of funds actively accepted is obviously higher than yesterday.

What caused the decline in these stocks.

Mainly due to the sharp increase in active selling on various stocks.

Almost unanimously, the proposed matching orders on each stock's market are all in a state of sharp increase with time.

9:18, 9:19...

The time for collective bidding in the two cities is getting closer and closer to 9:20.

Its overall high opening situation has obviously begun to fall back faster. At the same time, the volume of buy and sell orders participating in the call auction is also increasing at a faster pace.

Originally, at 9:15, the two markets had just started to jump.

A total of nearly 1,600 stocks in the two cities opened red and opened higher.

By 9:19, the number of stocks that could still maintain a high opening in the two cities had fallen back to about 1,100.

Finally, when 9:20 arrived, the two cities entered the real bidding stage where orders cannot be canceled.

The number of red stocks in the two cities has dropped below 1,100, slightly more than half.

And the performance of each main line field.

Related industry sectors and concept sectors in the main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', except for the 'Internet finance', 'high-speed rail', 'machinery equipment', and 'non-public transportation' sectors, are still barely in the red. Status, the rest, such as 'securities, banking, insurance, construction decoration, building materials, commercial real estate development, steel, cement...' and other industry sector indexes, as well as the corresponding concept sector index, have turned from red to green, with a slight increase. The low opening trend.

At the same time, the main lines of "big finance" and "big infrastructure" have become differentiated, and the collective bidding trend continues to fall.

The main lines of ‘military industry’, ‘mobile internet’, and ‘smartphone industry chain’ that performed well yesterday have risen to the top.

The 'National Defense and Military Industry' industry sector related to the main line of 'Military Industry', as well as concept sectors such as 'Beidou Navigation', 'Domestic Aircraft Carrier', 'Nuclear Power', and 'Military-Civil Integration', have begun to occupy the top of the growth lists of industry sectors and concept sectors in the two cities, ranking at the top Subsequently, industry sectors and concept sectors such as 'Film and Television Media', 'Internet Software', 'Internet Applications', 'Electronic Information', 'Mobile Payment', 'Smart City', 'Apple Concept', and 'Semiconductor Concept' followed the red plate. .

However, at a time when the main lines of ‘big finance’ and ‘big infrastructure’ are experiencing downward adjustments.

The magnitude of the red market rise of these major main-line related industry sectors and concept sectors is also very limited.

On the market of related core stocks and popular stocks, even if the active buying funds have a slight advantage and can barely suppress the selling, the strength is actually limited.

And as the collective bidding time goes by...

On the market of these stocks, the amount of active selling is also increasing sharply with the times.

“There’s something wrong with this collective bidding situation!”

At 9:21, in the main fund trading room of Zexi Investment Company, which is also in Shanghai, Zhou Kan, who was carefully observing the changes in the market prices of the two cities, frowned slightly and said: "'Big Finance', 'Big Infrastructure'" The main lines are opening high and moving low, but the main lines of 'military industry', 'technological growth', 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain' and other main lines seem to have completed the formation of a unified force of funds. It is an embarrassing task. The market is long and short. The differences have obviously intensified."

Hearing Zhou Kan's words, Xu Xiang, who was sitting next to Zhou Kan, carefully observed the changes in the market and responded: "It's still the same old problem. After the two cities continued to short-squeeze and rise, the short-term accumulation of profit-making chips and the solution The arbitrage chips were too heavy, and the external market trend was not good last night. These profit orders and settlement arbitrage originally had a strong urge to sell and take profits. Now that the market has not seen any major positive news that exceeds expectations, it is naturally difficult to Hold it in no longer.”

"That's the truth." Zhou Kan thought for a moment and nodded, "It's okay to adjust it."

"Looking at this situation, I'm afraid it's going to go lower." Xu Xiang smiled and continued, "It seems that the 3,500-point barrier for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is not that easy to pass!"

"Mainly on the 'Big Finance' line, the technical deviation is too serious." Zhou Kan said, "Coupled with the subsequent heavy positive expectations, they will only begin to appear and be realized in December. At the end of this month, In terms of news expectations, there is basically a vacuum. Even if there is emotional support, the main line of 'big finance' is trading hundreds of billions of funds every day, and in this core main line, huge amounts of short-term funds have been accumulated. In the case of profit taking and settlement of arbitrage, the motivation to continue to attack fiercely is obviously insufficient. The differences between long and short positions and the adjustment of stock prices should be normal, right?"

"Logically speaking, it is indeed true." Xu Xiang nodded slightly.

Zhou Kan paused and continued: "I just hope that the adjustment can be gentler and don't constantly adjust the trend like last Monday. After all, the sharp drop hurts emotions and popularity!"

"The market has the final say on how to adjust it." Xu Xiang squinted his eyes slightly, "Just take a look and you will know."

After speaking, he once again focused his attention on the markets of the two cities.

At this time, the market trading time has reached 9:24. Overall, the number of red stocks in the two cities has fallen below 1,050, accounting for less than 50% of the total.

And within the main line of ‘big finance’.

Even the most powerful ‘Internet Finance’ sector has fallen back to green market status.

As for the relatively strong related industry sectors and concept sector indexes in the main areas of 'military industry', 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain' and 'film and television media', they have all fallen back to within 5%.

Moreover, the daily limit trend came out of the market yesterday. In the entire sector, the ‘sub-new stock’ sector index, with 26 stocks gaining in value, is still in the red, but only has an increase of 32%.

Finally, in the fierce trading of long and short funds.

When 9:25 arrives, the collective bidding in the two cities ends.

As expected, the Shanghai Stock Index failed to cross the 3,500-point mark, which was just a stone's throw away, nor could it continue to maintain a red-high opening trend, and opened directly to a low of 39%.