Rebirth of the investment era

"Alas...the differences are really big!"

When the market trend fluctuated and fell, and all the popular mainline stocks were increasing in volume, around 10:30, Zheng Zhongming, general manager of the asset management business of Huatong Bank's proprietary investment department in Shanghai, stared at the market trends of the two markets and felt helpless. He sighed and said: "In just one hour, the market turnover has already reached more than 400 billion. If the volume continues to grow at this rate, the turnover of the two cities today will go straight to 1.1 trillion." The scale has gone up, it’s simply shocking, I don’t know where such a huge amount suddenly came from.”

"It's normal." Deng Jialun, a fund manager next to Zheng Zhongming, responded, "The positive announcements of the central bank's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts have activated the bullish sentiment in the entire market, and also activated the entry of all potential long funds outside the market, so This amount of energy can explode, although it is a bit unexpected, but it is understandable."

Zheng Zhongming said: "It is understandable that the potential long volume can explode, but...what is going on with the increasing amount of short selling in the market at this moment?"

Deng Jialun said: "It's all about the latent profits and the recent unwinding of arbitrage. Many institutions have expected this round of central bank interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, so they follow this good news and sell in advance. There are quite a few lurking financial groups, which is why the market is so divided after today's good news.

However, I feel that the long and short differences in today's market are large.

However, taken together, the long funds passively accepted can obviously withstand it.

Moreover, depending on the situation, 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous metal cycle', 'petrochemical industry', 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain'... many stocks in these main areas have the main direction of capital flow on the market. It shows a gradual inflow pattern.

This shows that in popular main areas such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', the potential profits from profit taking and the recent unwinding of arbitrage have not left after selling chips. The market, on the contrary, is flowing in towards the main line of low levels.

As long as money doesn't flee the market.

Then, the volume can be amplified and the long-short differences will be intensified, which will be a good thing for the adjustment of the market chip structure.

Generally speaking, the bull market pattern of the market is still there.

Moreover, after the central bank cuts interest rates and lowers reserve requirements, it can indeed bring at least more than one trillion in incremental funds to the market. In other words, regardless of the situation of latent selling, the impact of this news on the subsequent market movements is A huge plus.

It can bring very positive effects to the subsequent market trend. "

Zheng Zhongming squinted his eyes and thought for a while, then turned to Deng Jialun and continued: "What do you mean, we don't need to adjust our investment strategy and trading strategy now?"

Deng Jialun responded: "Since there is no problem with the basic logic of the bull market, we naturally do not need to adjust our investment strategy. We can just continue to do long positions. However... we can try to invest in 'big consumption', 'ferrous cycle', 'Petrochemicals', 'Mobile Internet', and 'Smartphone Industry Chain' are relatively sluggish main areas, but currently there are obvious main capital inflows, so increase some positions."

"I'm worried that... with today's divergence in the market, another major institution with a huge amount of funds in the market will not be able to bear it." Zheng Zhongming did not fully agree with Deng Jialun's views and opinions, "If this stock has a huge position, The main institutions, like those who take short- and medium-term profits and unwind arbitrage, aggressively reduce positions and take profits, and openly sell chips. The impact this has on the market cannot be underestimated. At the same time, what you call a healthy market The adjustment and uncertainty are huge.”

Deng Jialun knew that the main institutions that Zheng Zhongming mentioned as holding large amounts of funds were the "Yu Hang Group" institutions with heavy positions in the main fields of "big finance", "big infrastructure" and "military industry".

According to the position data previously disclosed by this institution, as well as the position data subsequently summarized by various market institutions.

Basically certain.

The ‘Yuhang Department’ and the ‘Anzhao Department’ are two institutions.

The scale of positions in the main fields of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' is at least 200 billion or more.

Position size at this level.

Even if the daily trading volume of the current market has exploded to more than one trillion.

But if the other party really reduces its position on a large scale and resolutely sells chips, the pressure it will bring to the market and the emotional impact it will cause will indeed be considerable.

What's more, the main funds holding huge positions in this stock.

The opportunity to get involved in the main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' is very early, and the floating profit is huge.

Once positions are fully reduced and profits are taken, the cost of reducing positions will not be considered at all.

In other words, once such a huge amount of funds is fully reduced, the market will inevitably experience violent shocks, and it is very likely to change the development of the trend.

"The funds of the 'Yu Hang Group' should be... unlikely to significantly reduce their positions at this position, right?" Deng Jialun thought for a while and said, "No matter how you analyze the basic logic of the bull market, there is no problem, and there is no Doubt, the core main lines of this bull market are the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

The two institutions, ‘Yuhang Department’ and ‘Anzhao Department’, are the main funds.

Finally, we got these two main lines of high-quality chips at a low price, which gave us sufficient cost advantages.

Now, when the bull market is not over yet and the market's long sentiment and long kinetic energy are still very strong, they have no motivation to significantly reduce their positions and exit at this position.

You need to know the main organization of this size.

Once the position is fully reduced and exited, it is basically unrealistic to enter the market on a large scale and buy back chips in a bull market trend.

At that time, once the main funds of all parties in the market find that the funds of the "Yu Hang Series" are re-establishing positions on a large scale.

They will inevitably take advantage of their cost advantage to short squeeze upwards, and use the huge capital demand of the 'Yuhang System' to build positions to support themselves.

Therefore, if we are not clearly bearish on the market and feel that this bull market will not last long.

I feel that the 'Yu Hang Group', the main force of funds, will never build large-scale positions and take profits in this position, and will give up the trading initiative in the two core main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'. Other core and main financial institutions. "

"Your analysis does make sense." Zheng Zhongming thought for a while and said, "However, the market volume exploded too much today, and the divergence in the market was much more serious than we expected. Although according to our According to the analysis just now, at this position, the main capital of the 'Yu Hang Group' will not be very motivated to reduce positions and take profits on a large scale, but... we also have to be on guard."

Seeing that Zheng Zhongming was still worried, Deng Jialun couldn't help but sigh inwardly and asked, "Then according to Mr. Zheng's wishes, how should we adjust our investment strategy and trading strategy?"

Zheng Zhongming thought for a while and said: "Following the differences in the market, let's first reduce our positions in the main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' by 20%. As for positions in non-two main areas, we can keep them unchanged for the time being. After all, the core main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group' mainly hold positions in the two major directions of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

Even with this capital, amid today's huge differences.

A strategy of reducing positions and taking profits was made.

According to their key holding areas, the two core main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' will be the most affected.

not to mention……

The benefits of the central bank's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts have already materialized.

Regardless of how far-reaching this positive impact will be on the market in the long term, at least in the short term, once the positive benefits materialize, the market will have to digest a flurry of profit taking and settlement of arbitrage.

In this case, then the two main areas of ‘big finance’ and ‘big infrastructure’.

There is enough logic and motivation for reducing positions and taking profits.

At this moment, we are partially reducing our positions in these two main areas. First, we can appropriately avoid unexpected risks. Second, we can also free up this part of the position, and then move it to the 'big consumption' and 'non-ferrous metals' you mentioned. , 'Petrochemicals', 'Mobile Internet', 'Smartphone Industry Chain' and other relatively sluggish main-line fields should be appropriately laid out according to the logic of 'high-low switching'. "

"Okay!" After hearing Zheng Zhongming's idea, Deng Jialun nodded slightly, still agreeing with it in his heart, and said, "Then I will immediately instruct the traders to conduct trading operations according to this strategy."

After finishing speaking, Deng Jialun did not wait for Zheng Zhongming to continue his instructions, and immediately turned around and ordered several trading groups in the trading room to quickly make changes to the trading strategy.

As Huatong Bank’s proprietary investment department made changes in its trading strategy.

The differences between the two cities continue to widen.

Moreover, the core industry sectors and conceptual sectors of the entire "big finance" main line such as securities, banking, insurance, and Internet finance are growing in volume, and are falling faster and faster.

At 10:47, just over an hour after the two markets opened for trading, the intraday trading volume of ‘Huaxin Securities’ directly hit the 10 billion mark.

At 10:48, the securities sector index fell back to about 3%.

At 10:49, the growth rate of the two major financial weighted sector indexes, banking and insurance, has fallen back to about 2%.

At 10:50, the Shanghai Stock Index's intraday gain fell back to about 2%.

At 10:51, the intraday decline of ‘Blue Stone Reload’ expanded to 7%, showing signs of falling to the limit.

At 10:52, the intraday increase of 'Flush' fell to around 5%, while the intraday gains of stocks such as 'Great Wisdom', 'Shanghai Steel Union', and 'Huake Shuguang' also fell back to around 5%.

At 10:53, the A50 index retraced its intraday gain to within 2%.

At 10:54, the securities sector index fell back to less than 4%. At the same time, the intraday trading volume of ‘Huaxin Securities’ was still expanding crazily and had crossed the 11 billion mark.

We see the market becoming more and more divergent.

The bearish power of the bulls has begun to show decline after one and a half hours.

At this moment, inside Yuhang and Yuhang Investment Company, in the main fund trading room, Su Yu stood with his hands behind his back in front of the big screen displaying market prices in the trading room. He was silent for a while, then turned to Li, who was sitting in front of the company's fund product control computer. Meng asked: "For several major fund products under our company, how many positions and chips are there that have not been reduced from our previously agreed reduction targets?"

Li Meng took a look at the data in the background and said: "The current holding levels of several major fund products are already below 40%, but there is still some distance from the 30% holding target we require."

"Intensify your efforts to reduce your positions." Su Yu frowned slightly when he saw that the positions of several major fund products were still around 40% and said, "The news about the central bank's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts came out faster than we expected. You have to come earlier. There is a huge divergence in the market today. Basically, after the good news comes out, it is the final trading window period to reduce positions and take profits. If you miss this window period to reduce positions and take profits, there is a high probability that the market will continue to fall in the future, and the re-consolidation has already begun. The chip structure is completely scattered, and once we fall into the continuous downward trend of the market.

Based on the holding volume of our fund products and the market influence of related trading seats.

It will only become more difficult to quickly exit a position and take profits. "

"But we are currently paying close attention to the active buying of the market and reducing our positions to the maximum extent." Li Meng said, "If we accelerate further, we can only continue to lower the price and seize the current market to the maximum extent through smashing orders. The buying liquidity has been increased, but this... will greatly affect the market trend and cause a certain degree of panic selling. After all, in the current market, we are not the only ones with strong demand for funds to take profits and reduce positions.

And, there’s one more thing…

If we lower the price, a lot of funds will follow us.

Once there is a panic selling situation on the market, it will be difficult for us to avoid the disclosure of today's dragon and tiger ranking data. "

Su Yu thought for a while and said: "At this time, there is no need to worry about whether the seats are exposed or not. Since the final window period for reducing positions and taking profits has arrived, and today's market liquidity can support large quantities and large-scale If you want to sell off the chips in your hands, just lower the price on a large scale.

As long as we reduce our position as soon as possible to the 30% position we set before.

Complete the entire plan of reducing positions and taking profits.

Then, even if our trading seats are exposed, it will have no impact on us.

Because after we completed the reduction, we freed up a lot of funds, and we changed from potential short positions to potential long positions in the market.

Instead, we can take advantage of the violent market adjustment.

Gradually get back the chips we want at low levels, further reduce the cost of holding positions, or take the initiative in the development of the subsequent market conditions and seize more high-quality mainline chips. "

"Okay, I understand." Li Meng nodded immediately after hearing what Su Yu said, then turned around and ordered the trading teams in the trading room, "According to Mr. Su's wishes, add more The speed of large-scale reduction of positions must be reduced to 30% of our planned position before today's close." (End of this chapter)

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