Rebirth of the Spanish Empire

“Since the beginning of the Franco-Prussian War, Europe has been in constant ups and downs because of these two countries, co-opting and suppressing them. This is the most direct method used by the two countries when facing other countries.

The unification of Prussia and the rise of a German-level empire in Europe completed a revolutionary transformation of the European international environment. This is a fact that no European can deny. At the same time, it also created the problem of the German Empire that has troubled the world for nearly fifty years, that is, the contradiction between Germany's natural advantages and other European countries' failure to accept this advantage.

France's defeat in the German-French War from 1870 to 1871 not only caused France to lose the two rich places of Alsace and Lorraine, but also deprived it of its dominant position on the European continent, which greatly worsened the situation. its geopolitical environment. This made France an irreconcilable country for Germany.

It is difficult for France to deal with the German Empire with its own strength. Whether for itself or for revenge, France needs to form an alliance with any country that is hostile to the German Empire. This intensifies the potential crisis in Germany and makes it difficult to localize it. , thus also limiting the basic direction of German diplomacy. Your Majesty Joseph, do you think my analysis is correct? "

"It's very exciting. It's exactly what the intelligence said. It's very unique. I'm really looking forward to the next analysis." Franz Joseph I looked at Alfonso with some emotion. At this moment, He had to admit that in many aspects, he may have great advantages, especially the experience he had experienced, but in many aspects, he was also at a disadvantage in front of him, especially the one who had already admired him in his heart. Engage in economics and international diplomacy. He even felt that he was far inferior to the other party.

80 years old! When Franz Joseph I looked at him, he looked at him in the same way. The super-elderly king in front of him had officially turned eighty this year. I am only 24 years old this year. Looking at him, he thought of his mother. It had to be said that she was still related to him by blood, and they were both of the Austrian royal family. Although the other party is his grandfather or even a person of his grandfather's generation.

However, of course he will not compromise on national interests because of this. On the contrary. Now he wants to get something from him that is powerful for Spain.

"What do you think of Bismarck, the political strongman of the German Empire?"

Franz Joseph I sighed: "He is recognized throughout Europe as a person who not only influenced the German Empire, but even affected the situation in Europe and the world."

"Yes, he is indeed someone with that ability." Alfonso also said: "Bismarck's idea should be to isolate France and maintain the status quo of Europe and Germany's security. It is one thing, but at that time he should have thought more about Germany. The current situation in Europe and the evolution of the world situation faced by the empire are diversified and complex. Therefore," Alfonso looked at Joseph I seriously and said: "Therefore, in order to add the largest bargaining chip to the German Empire to maintain its own security, especially In order to isolate the most important enemy of the German Empire, Bismarck's countermeasure for the German Empire was to unite with all his strength the conservative alliance of the three major European monarchies: Russia, Austria-Hungary, and so on."

Seeing him still looked a little indifferent. Alfonso also knew that the other party had already known the situation of the German Empire. Alfonso continued: "The German Empire knows about the conflicts between the two previous big brothers, Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, especially the problems on the Balkan Peninsula. In China, Tsarist Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire definitely did not have much room for compromise. Because the German Imperial Government also knew this, they chose another method to allow the two countries to maintain their dependence on the German Empire and increase the German Empire's Your influence. The relationship between Russia and Austria is too close, so that a conflict without Germany or for the Balkans will cause huge damage to the diplomatic influence of the German Empire in Europe. And when treating Russia as the German Empire, While the friendship between the two countries serves as the cornerstone of the German Empire’s diplomacy, the German Empire cannot yet offend Britain, which is at odds with Russia in the Near East, the Middle East, and Central Asia.”

"What you said is good, it's really good and you got it to the point." Franz Joseph I said several good words in a row. Then the interface expressed his thoughts at this time: "The Near East crisis in the years from 1875 to 1878 greatly reflected the limitations of Bismarck's foreign policy relative to the historical scene. Just look at Russia and Austria. The intensification of the issues between the Hungarian Empire and the Balkans made it difficult for Bismarck to avoid the issue of choosing between the disputes between Russia and Austria for a long time. In 1879, he found a way out in the alliance war between us and the German Empire. Later, because Russia favored our alliance and dealt with them at the same time, they agreed to form an alliance among the three countries in 1881. Although we will not talk about this, we also know that the greatest benefit from this is the German Empire. After all, they are equivalent to the relationship between our two countries. It has exerted a strong restraint on development, and has reached the status of the most important mediator between us.

"But there are unforeseen circumstances. In the end, it didn't take long for the relaxed atmosphere brought about by this covenant to cause big waves again?"

Joseph I nodded and said: "In September 1885, a revolution broke out in the Eastern Rumelia province of the Ottoman Turkish Empire and announced its merger with the Principality of Bulgaria. Tsar Alexander III, who had always regarded himself as the protector of Bulgaria, could not tolerate disobeying orders. His Grand Duke Alexander achieved the unification of the two regions, thereby consolidating the Grand Duke's position in Bulgaria. Russia tried to force Bulgaria to cancel the merger through coordination among major powers, but the fait accompli of Bulgaria's unification was irreversible. Russia's Bulgaria policy faced an unprecedented failure. A new crisis was brewing in the Balkans. In January 1886, the fanatical chauvinist Boulanger took office as the French Minister of War, setting off a frenzy in France demanding revenge against Germany, and relations between Germany and France suddenly became tense.

Two crises occurred simultaneously, and Bismarck's alliance faced a severe test. At the same time, the Alliance of the Three Emperors, which Bismarck regarded as the foundation of German diplomacy, was about to expire, and there was no hope of renewal. There is a possibility that the international situation will be completely out of control, and the attack from the flank by things that Bismarck even feared in his dreams is about to become a reality. If Germany adopts a policy of supporting Austria-Hungary in the Russian-Austrian competition in the Balkans, it will suffer the consequences of a breakdown in Russian-German relations and thus provide France with potential allies. Under the circumstances at the time, the possibility of abandoning Austria-Hungary was completely ruled out. Preserving the independence and great power status of Austria-Hungary was an important part of Bismarck's European order. Once Austria-Hungary disintegrates under external pressure, it will not only endanger the balance of power in Europe and make German diplomacy lose room for maneuver, but will also disrupt the delicate political balance within the German Empire.

The Bulgarian crisis from 1885 to 1887 reopened the Eastern Question and created the prospect of confrontation between Russia and Austria. At the end of the war between Russia and Ottoman Turkey, the Russian army fought bloody battles, and 200,000 soldiers died on the battlefield, but what they reaped was a bitter pill that was hard to swallow. In September 1886, Duke Alexander was forced to abdicate under Russian pressure. In November, the new tsarist envoy Kaurbas failed to force the Bulgarian regency to nominate a candidate for the Grand Duke of Russia's liking. The point is beyond comparison. A critical situation has arisen in the Balkans where the Russian army is about to invade and trigger a conflict between great powers.

Once Russia invades Bulgaria, it will surely control Romania. By then Hungary will be surrounded by Russian Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Austria-Hungary's Danube lifeline may also be cut off. Maintaining power and influence in the Balkans is not only a symbol of Austria-Hungary's status as a great power, but also the survival of the empire. On November 13, Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Karnoky delivered a speech in the Hungarian Parliament: Russia has no right to occupy Bulgaria and decide its fate alone, otherwise it will lead to war. Russian public opinion is in an uproar, and it is generally believed that Russian-Austrian coordination has lost its meaning. The Russian military and the Pan-Slavic faction are considering launching a military attack on Austria-Hungary.

The most direct purpose of the Bismarck Alliance was to restrain Russia and Austria and prevent conflicts between the two countries. His basic strategy at this time was to implement two-way suppression on the two countries and urge the two countries to resolve their differences within the framework of the Three Emperors Alliance. In response to the tough policies that Austria-Hungary might adopt under the instigation of Britain, he repeatedly issued warnings that Bulgaria was Russia's sphere of influence, and the German-Austrian alliance was only defensive in nature, and he had to ask Britain for help. 3 Regarding Russia, he repeatedly stated that Germany was willing to support Russia's Bulgarian policy, but Austria-Hungary's status as a great power could not be sacrificed, and the way out lay in Russia and Austria reaching a compromise on dividing the Balkan sphere of influence.

Bismarck played the role of an honest broker. Although he temporarily avoided the issue of choosing between Russia and Austria, it also implied the danger of alienating both countries at the same time. Austria-Hungary cannot help but ask: ‘What value does the German-Austrian alliance have? ''Germany has two allies, and Austria-Hungary has only half. ’ If the conclusion of the German-Austrian Alliance in 1879 intensified Russia’s sense of isolation and forced it to return to the track of alliance with Germany and Austria, then at this time, it could only deepen Russia’s hostility. In November 1886, when the Tsar met with the new French ambassador to Russia, Lablay, he said: Russia hopes that France will be strong, and the two countries need to work side by side to overcome difficulties.

This statement was, on the one hand, the result of the failure of the Kaurbas mission and the deepening of the Tsar's frustration, and it was also a response to Carnoky's Congressional speech. If we want to solve the Bulgarian problem according to Russia's wishes, we must overcome Austria's obstruction. Austria-Hungary's strength did not pose a threat, the key was the German-Austrian alliance. If Russia wanted to launch a war against Austria-Hungary, or for Russia's threat of war to have an effect, Germany's intervention must be prevented in advance. The only hope is in France. There are signs that the Russian military and Pan-Slav faction, through the famous journalist and conservative nationalist Katokov, have exerted a significant influence on the tsar's decision-making tendency since the end of October. In order to contain Germany, the Tsar may drastically change his European policy, and the prospect of a Franco-Russian alliance is already looming. "

Alfonso said: "In this case, the situation of the German Empire i is definitely very dangerous. Bismarck is definitely furious, right?"

Second update, thank you to my friend Bit Crazy, Bit Thunder for his monthly support, and Huanyue Wuchen for his reward. (To be continued. If you like this work, you are welcome to come to Qidian.com () to vote for recommendations and monthly votes. Your support is my biggest motivation.)