Rebirth of the Wild Age

There is a saying that goes, "Real estate speculation rejuvenates the country, and industry harms the country."

If you put this sentence in the late 1990s and early 21st century, it still has a bit of flavor.

Some of the measures China has taken after the Asian financial turmoil have worked well, while others have not.

Good results include infrastructure construction. Since 1998, the central government has issued 100 billion to 150 billion construction treasury bonds every year, which are specially provided for local construction projects. what does that mean? When a local government launches a project, there is no shortage of start-up funds. Banks rush to provide loans. The scale of investment formed by this kind of "government investment and bank follow-up" is quite amazing. rapid prosperity.

This model will definitely not work in European and American countries after World War II. It will inevitably cause a "crowding out effect", leading to a decline in private investment and spending, and an increase in market interest rates. However, China has a special system, special national conditions, and an economic environment in a special period. After doing this for many years, the "crowding out effect" has hardly appeared in China, and the market interest rate has not risen but has fallen.

That's why so many Western economists bad-mouthed China at that time, because it didn't conform to their economic laws, and no matter how they calculated it, they felt that the Chinese economy was about to collapse.

But the Chinese government's efforts have had little success in boosting domestic demand and boosting private investment.

The deposit and loan interest rates have been lowered several times in a row, and ordinary people are still reluctant to spend, and deposit a large amount of funds in the bank. The money cannot be loaned out at all, because of restricted exports, insufficient domestic demand, intensified competition, many industries are struggling to develop, and private entrepreneurs are becoming more and more cautious in investing.

This creates a phenomenon -

In the early and mid-1990s, it was extremely difficult for private property owners to obtain loans from banks. They had to use connections or even bribes to get loans from banks. By the end of the 1990s, banks were begging you to borrow money, and for any well-known companies, the review was completely formalized when applying for mortgages, and some people even lent billions of dollars out of nothing.

Private companies have become frightened, what should I do if I invest cautiously and don’t take out loans?

Then develop real estate!

Thus, the era of real estate speculation has come. Real estate companies have sprung up like mushrooms, borrowing a lot from banks to build houses, and the state has provided policy support to completely liberalize the restrictions on real estate transactions, and ordinary people are scrambling to buy houses. Hey, in this way, the bank's accumulated funds have been revitalized, domestic demand has also been stimulated, and all problems have been solved. It's just... perfect.

This situation is conducive to economic development in a special stage. After 2004, it should be controlled by the policy, because domestic demand has been pulled up at that time, private investment has also been heated up, and there is no need to rely on the real estate industry to promote it.

But I can't stop the car. Once the beast is released, it will be difficult to put it back in the cage.

...

Mayor's office.

The moment Huang Yunsheng opened the door, he stood up with a smile on his face, and walked a few steps to shake hands with Song Shumin: "Boss Song, I have been waiting for you for a long time, today we finally meet!"

"Don't dare," Song Shumin said with a smile, "As an ordinary citizen of Rongping City, I would like to thank Mayor Huang for his efforts and contributions to Rongping's economic development."

"It's not my fault alone, I dare not take credit for it," Huang Yunsheng said, "Please sit down quickly! Xiaotian, take out my treasured Biluochun."

Secretary Tian was ordered to make tea, and Huang Yunsheng and Song Shumin chatted enthusiastically, as if two old friends who hadn't seen each other for many years will not meet again. It was impossible to tell that Song Shumin was arrested and imprisoned by Huang Yunsheng back then, and this did not affect their communication in the slightest.

Song Shumin took out a stack of manuscripts and said: "Mayor Huang, please have a look. This is the development plan I made together with Gouzi. It's silly to make a fool of yourself. Please correct me."

Huang Yunsheng opened this material quite curiously, and what he saw was "Suggestions for the transportation development and construction plan of Rongping City in the next five years". This thing should be done by the city government, but it is a bit ridiculous to be taken out by a private owner.

However, when Song Shumin was in prison, he passed Huang Yunsheng the city's industrial development ideas, and now it's nothing to talk about transportation development.

"Boss Song, please wait a moment. I'll read it first." Huang Yunsheng attached great importance to it.

At the beginning of this material, we talk about the disadvantages of Rongping City's traffic location. You can enter the Yangtze River by water, but it is only suitable for ships with very small tonnage; by railway, you can connect to the provincial capital and connect to Guizhou, but the speed is too slow, and there are not enough trains. Only the construction of expressways is the best choice to break the traffic bottleneck in Rongping City.

If that's all there is to it, then there's nothing unusual about it. Everyone wants to build highways. The question is where will the money come from?

The next step is to discuss China's economic situation, discuss the impact of the Asian financial turmoil on China, and draw the conclusion that the central government will inevitably carry out large-scale infrastructure construction.

Huang Yunsheng browsed quickly, then went back to look at it again, took out a cigarette and handed it to Song Shumin, saying: "Boss Song, here is one."

"Thank you, quit." Song Shumin waved his hand.

Huang Yunsheng himself lit a cigarette and said: "The central government's large-scale investment in infrastructure construction is purely guesswork. It will cost at least several billion yuan to build a highway from Rongpingping to the provincial capital. Adding in the difficulty and cost of mountainous areas, it may be tens of billions. No matter how you plan the route, you have to pass through two prefecture-level cities halfway, so you have to reach a consensus with the leaders of other cities. I can't make the decision, the province can make the decision."

Song Shumin said with a smile: "Leaving aside the issue of who is in charge, does the central government invest in large-scale infrastructure construction, does Mayor Huang think it is possible?"

"After reading your article, I think it might be possible." Huang Yunsheng said.

"Then we can discuss the construction of expressways." Song Shumin took out the map of the whole province from his bag and swiped his finger. "As soon as Rongping's expressway reaches the provincial capital, Yicheng and Lucheng will follow up immediately. By connecting the expressway, the traffic between Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao will be opened. Therefore, the five cities should work together to file a letter to the province. This line can solve the traffic problems of a small half of the well-known enterprises in the province and revitalize the entire southeast of the province. The economy of the region!"

Huang Yunsheng looked at the map and felt hot all over. He knew very well what it meant for this expressway to be completed.

But still the same sentence, no money!

Song Shumin said: "Learning from the measures of Roosevelt's New Deal, the central government is likely to issue a large amount of national construction bonds, and part of the funds can be found in policy loans. The remaining part of the funds can be found in domestic and foreign private investment. Both Xifeng and Xianjiu are willing to invest. Yes. Communicate with the leaders of the other four cities in advance to make a written plan, at least submit the project application first. The more crying, the easier it is to get policy loans next year, and the earlier the project application is, the more qualified it is. The priority in the impression of provincial leaders. Even if the central government does not have relevant policies next year, we will not lose anything."

Huang Yunsheng's mind was in a mess, and he said dryly, "Let me think about it first."

Song Shumin smiled and said, "Then I'll visit another day."

"Boss Song, go slowly." Huang Yunsheng personally sent Song Shumin out of the office, then closed the door and smoked one after another.

For Huang Yunsheng, this plan is too tempting!

Song Shumin couldn't formulate it himself, and Song Weiyang helped make a lot of expositions by virtue of his advantages as a time traveler.

Once the expressway is completed, the transportation costs of Xifeng and Xianjiu will be reduced.

Another point is that Song Shumin is preparing to build a cement factory and wants to monopolize the cement supply of highways in Rongping City, so he has a chance to bid in the next city.

In any case, as long as Huang Yunsheng reveals the content of the plan, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao will definitely be happy, and then encourage their respective local governments to support the plan.