Rebirth Starts From 2006

Boss Chen didn't pay any attention to Qin Yu's somewhat teasing question.

Because in the previous life, when Lehman fell, the whole world also mourned.

On the surface, it seems that only one company has fallen, but in the long run, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has the greatest impact on the world because it further dampens people's confidence in the market and the future!

From last August to now, in this year, the domestic A-share market has dropped by more than 60%, the Tokyo stock market has dropped by 40%, and the Nasdaq has dropped by 45%.

The world's major financial markets, which had jumped more joyfully in the past two years, have fallen harder this year.

Almost all investors, whether they are retail investors, bankers, or institutions, are in constant panic. No one knows how long or how long this financial crisis will last until it ends.

Just when everyone was looking forward to it, Lehman suddenly collapsed again. It can be imagined that the blow to investors' confidence was severe.

The most important thing is that Lehman is not the first giant to fall!

Not to mention New Century Financial and American Mortgage Investment Corporation, two of the top ten large mortgage lenders in the United States, have gone bankrupt.

Not to mention that just at the beginning of this month, if the US government had not taken action and occupied half of the US housing loan subprime bond market, the famous Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae would not have been able to avoid the fate of direct bankruptcy.

Let’s just talk about real financial giants,

You know, at this time last year, when the industry talked about U.S. investment banks, they were still referring to them as the Big Five.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns,

Which of these century-old companies is not famous!

Now there are only four major ones left.

Well, it’s three years old now.

Lehman is gone too,

Um,

Okay, two big ones,

Because Merrill Lynch was also taken over by Bank of America!

So where are the remaining ones, except for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which are temporarily stable?

Just in March of this year, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve joined forces to facilitate the acquisition of Bear Stearns by **** and provided Bear Stearns with no more than US$30 billion in liquidity.

This is the first time in the history of the Federal Reserve that it has stepped in to save a non-depository bank.

It was precisely because of this incident and the subsequent acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America that Fuld frequently asked the Federal Reserve for help.

If there is one, there are two, and if there are two, there are three. You saved Bear Stearns first, and then Merrill Lynch.

Well, even though it was at the cost of being acquired, it was still a rescue.

So why not save Lehman? !

We don’t need 30 billion from Bear Stearns or 20 billion from Merrill Lynch. We only need 10 billion, 10 billion US dollars to save this 158-year-old company that has witnessed the history of American finance. An established investment bank!

But unfortunately,

The ending is that the Fed not only failed to save Lehman, but pushed him behind the scenes!

To this day, the result in the eyes of all investors around the world is:

First, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch were acquired, and then Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.

So, who is the next giant to fall?

Goldman Sachs,

Or is it one of the symbols of Wall Street, Morgan Stanley? !

no one knows,

No one knows who of the remaining two major investment banks will be the next giant to fall.

Or,

Fall together? ? ?

This is the biggest crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman!

That is,

Crisis of confidence!

Things change overnight,

It was under this situation that even though Qin Yu had full confidence in Boss Chen, he couldn't help but feel his heart pounding.

Are you really reliable? Don't forget that I worked hard in the securities market for a whole year and finally made some money, but you made a mistake in your judgment and we went back to before liberation overnight? !

Well, it’s not like it was back before liberation. After all, there are still a number of companies under Honggu Capital, and Boss Chen is still a billionaire with a rich net worth.

But according to Boss Chen's plan, this time, Qin Yu will spend hundreds of billions of dollars to buy the stock market at the bottom. If his judgment is wrong and hundreds of billions of dollars disappear, it will be quite unfair, right?

So, at Qin Yu's suggestion, today's emergency consultation meeting was held.

Looking at Qin Yu on the screen, Boss Chen took a leisurely sip of tea and then smiled and said, "Tell me, what kind of remarks made you lose confidence in me?"

"Boss, this time there will be no one-sided argument, okay?"

At the critical moment, Qin Yu lost all his humor and said seriously, "From one o'clock this morning,

Oh, it was two o'clock yesterday afternoon at your place.

That is to say, when Lehman announced that it had filed for bankruptcy, the whole world was like an explosion. Almost all economists, financial consultants, financial experts, etc., etc.,

Anyway, as long as they can be relevant and have something to say, they will express their opinions through various channels.

Almost everyone now agrees on the same view, that is, the subprime mortgage crisis that began in the United States in August last year and gradually swept the world will most likely eventually evolve into the world's most serious crisis since 1929. financial crisis,

The crisis that started on Wall Street will quickly affect the real economy like a domino, causing the global unemployment rate to rise and the economies of many countries to fall into recession.

Highly indebted countries such as Greece and Iceland may even fall into the "national bankruptcy" trap! "

Qin Yu suddenly stopped waving his hands, and then let out a long breath, "Then the world economy will fall into a recession, and it may take ten years, or even longer, to get back up.

Well, although I don’t think it will take as long as ten years, but,”

Her face looked a little tangled, and she said hesitantly, "If there are no other influencing factors, I think an economic recession in about three years may be inevitable."

In fact, she wanted to say five years, but seeing Boss Chen's presence, she unconsciously reduced the number by two years.

But three years is not a short period of time. In the financial market, let alone three years, it can change the outcome in three days or even three hours.

Now she holds a huge amount of money in her hands. If she cannot get more confidence from Boss Chen, then the amount of investment she originally planned to invest may be halved.

Even, try to convince the boss,

Change your tune!

Chen Yang put down the teacup, looked at her and smiled slightly, and asked, "Yesterday you said you were starting to close your position, how is the situation now?"

"ah?"

Qin Yu was stunned for a moment, then quickly came to his senses, blinked and said, "It's not bad, 70% has been cleared, and the remaining 30% will be cleared within these two days."

This is her advantage. No matter what she is thinking, she will firmly implement whatever the boss decides.

Otherwise, with her current thoughts, she may not have the intention to keep some of it to continue to appreciate in value.

You know, the current financial market is going down. It’s really not easy to buy a short order.

If she hadn't avoided touching the management red lines of major securities markets, she might have closed all her short orders by now.

Well, in fact, there is no benefit in closing out later. The later it is, the harder the stock index will fall, and the greater the profit will be. There is a difference of billions of dollars!

After hearing Qin Yu's words, Boss Chen nodded slightly and said with a smile, "Yeah, sure."

It’s only been two days, and the stock markets around the world are still in trouble.

Although shipments cannot be made at the lowest point, it is already very good to be able to ship such a large order within a few days without causing a violent rebound in the market.

Can't expect too much.

Seeing that the boss had been evading and not answering Qin Yu's questions directly, Huang Shan, who had been listening in, suddenly said,

"Actually, I didn't get much rest last night. I kept paying attention to public opinions and reactions from all parties. Even in the middle of the night, I urgently convened several experts from the Rainbow Economic Research Institute for a discussion and listened to their opinions."

Chen Yang turned his head and looked at her with a speechless face, "You are just looking for trouble. I have told you so many times that once Lehman collapses, the financial crisis will be almost over. Why do you still have so many things to do?" ,

Why, just because you are young, you don’t take your body seriously, right? ! "

Seeing him like this, Huang Shan couldn't help but feel speechless.

What do you mean, I'm at work, okay?

And which one of us is younger? !

Good guy, Huang Shan was so angry that she almost ran away.

Fortunately, there was Zou Rong beside him, so he quickly changed the subject, "Sister Shan, has your discussion reached a conclusion?"

Huang Shan took a deep breath, turned to look at her, and nodded vigorously, "Yes,"

After a pause, he explained, "Originally I didn't want to say it, because this conclusion is contrary to the boss's inference. I just wanted each company to deal with it carefully, but now Xiaoyu is also worried, so I will mention it."

Upon hearing this, Qin Yu on the screen suddenly became excited, "What's the result over there? Are you not optimistic about it either?"

Huang Shan shook her head slightly, frowning and said, "You can't simply say that you are not optimistic about it. From the reality, the problem is more serious than imagined.

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was not only a major domestic event in the United States, but also had a deeper international impact.

That is, countries' worries about inflation may be replaced by worries about deflation.

The collapse of Lehman, the collapse of the stock market, debt defaults and falling asset prices will create a vicious cycle of chain pressure on the economies of various countries.

As a result, banks have difficulty operating and it becomes more difficult for companies to obtain loans. In the end, they have to use more extreme measures such as layoffs and production cuts to tide over the difficulties, which ultimately leads to the economy entering an era of global deflation.

All countries, especially the central banks of emerging countries, will face very severe challenges. This challenge is even more serious than that of the United States, which triggered the crisis.

On the one hand, the long-term overheating of the country’s economy makes them dare not take inflation lightly.

On the other hand, the global deflationary crisis that will be caused by the Lehman Brothers incident will put them in a dilemma when deciding on their own interest rate policies.

This situation, if not controlled,”

Having said this, Huang Shan turned her head and looked at Boss Chen, her face more serious than ever before.

"Before, you speculated that Lehman Brothers would collapse and end this financial crisis. Xiaoyu and I had no doubts out of our trust in you.

But this time, the market's reaction was far beyond our expectations. As Xiaoyu said just now, if it is not controlled, it is very likely to evolve into the most serious global financial crisis since 1929! "

After she finished speaking, Boss Chen nodded slightly.

First he looked at Qin Yu, then at Huang Shan. Both of them looked prepared.

Chen Yang couldn't help laughing and said, "When you stated the seriousness of the problem, you all said something similar,

'If there are no other influencing factors,'

'If not controlled,'

Right? ! "

Qin Yu and Huang Shan nodded together,

Chen Yang smiled and said, "Okay, then let me tell you how likely this is to become a reality."

Before she even started talking, she handed the teacup to Zou Rong and said, "Pour me a glass of water."

Today is a closed-door meeting, and no one is allowed to enter at will. There is no water in Boss Chen's tea cup, so he can only ask his wife to pour it. It's really pitiful.

Zou Rong was quite happy. She grabbed the tea cup and ran to pour water.

When she ran back, Boss Chen took a sip, exhaled a breath of hot air, and then said slowly,

"To change the current situation, we can only start from both internal and external aspects. Since you mentioned that the international situation is severe, I will start with the international environment.

You just said that experts estimate that this subprime mortgage crisis may evolve into the most serious financial crisis since 1929.

So, do you know what the world situation was like before and after the economic crisis broke out in 2029? "

Huang Shan and Qin Yu nodded together,

Both of them were majoring in economics, and of course they had a deep understanding of the economic crisis of 1929.

What's more, there are very few people who don't know about this major event that appears in both junior high school history books and Shoji textbooks.

If you don’t know, the milk dumping incident in which American capitalists would rather dump the milk than sell it at a lower price originated from this economic crisis!

Chen Yang looked at the two people and smiled and said, "The international situation at that time was war, great powers, colonies, confrontation, poverty, division, etc. There are countless adjectives, but there is no good one.

In that case, once an economic crisis breaks out, no country can resist the spread of the economic crisis.

But now, what is the situation? "

Hearing this, Qin Yu and Huang Shan both understood.

Chen Yang smiled and said, "Times have changed. In today's world, peace and cooperation are the mainstream.

Both established powers and emerging countries are very aware of how harmful the financial crisis is.

In the face of previous financial crises, governments did not act in isolation. The world's desire to join forces to fight the crisis was unprecedentedly unanimous.

Could it be that now that Lehman has collapsed and the situation has become more severe, they are still fighting on their own?

Therefore, even if it is for their own sake, most countries will choose to join hands to jointly solve this financial crisis! "

After the boss finished speaking, Huang Shan immediately sighed and said, "If governments from all countries work together, this financial crisis can indeed be alleviated or even resolved!"

When she said this, she couldn't help but secretly blame herself for being brainless. She only focused on analyzing from an economic perspective, but forgot about the higher-level political perspective.

Learning political economics in college is in vain!

In fact, we can’t blame her. Soros, who caused the Asian financial crisis, failed Russia because of his lack of sensitivity to politics.

Seeing both of them looking a little depressed, Chen Yang couldn't help but chuckle to himself.

I remember when I was in college, many classmates talked about what Western economics is the real economics, and political economics is not.

Only when you have more experience will you understand that the practicality of political economics is far stronger than that of Western economics with liberalism at its core.

Because the economy is built in a social environment, it also needs to accept the leadership of Zhengzhi. How can we get rid of the influence of Zhengzhi!