Rebirth to 90s: Start from Scratch
Chapter 351: Annual growth rate
The time going out to play still flies quickly. Zhang Qianxiu has never been to the north in his previous life. He has only seen this well-known Tianmen on TV, and it is the first time he has seen it with his own eyes.
At seven o'clock in the evening, I had an appointment with Chen Desheng for dinner. It was still Wange Hotel. Zhang Qian repaired a private room and passed by half an hour earlier.
At 6:55, Chen Desheng had already called and had arrived at the Wange Hotel.
Zhang Qianxiu told them the number of the private room, and within a few minutes, the waiter brought Chen Desheng and a middle-aged man.
The two parties greeted and made an introduction. This man is Chen Defu, the main person in charge of the cooperative, and the general manager of their cooperative, who can make all the decisions.
Zhang Qianxiu took a look at Chen Defu. His hair is not long, his face is dark, and the person is a bit thin. He looks loyal, and he has to bend slightly when speaking. It feels like he respects you very much, but he speaks very politely. Very well-measured, with precision in his eyes.
This kind of person, you accidentally suffered a loss in his hands, and you thought you were taking advantage.
Zhang Qianxiu knew it well, and naturally he was very polite.
Several people took their seats, and Zhang Qianxiu asked the waiter to bring the menu.
Chen Defu stood up and took the menu with both hands, with a full smile on his face, and said to Zhang Qianxiu: "Boss Zhang, we are late. I ask for this meal, and it will be counted as an apologize."
Zhang Qianxiu waved his hand: "Mr. Chen, I'll invite you when you're ready, don't be polite to me."
Chen Defu didn't care about it. He glanced at the menu and said, "Boss Zhang, I'm not familiar with this dish. I can eat it both sour and spicy. You and Miss Su should order it!"
Although Chen Defu is courteous, he will not be polite, saying a couple of sentences to make you feel that he respects you very much. If you still refuse, he will order food in a questioning tone. Moreover, Chen Defu is very skillful in ordering, and he did not order. Too much, but there are meat and vegetables, spicy and sour, soup and water.
The dishes were ready. After the waiter left, Zhang Qianxiu asked: "Mr. Chen, Manager Chen, I am very interested in cooperating with you. My request, I probably told Manager Chen, do you have any requirements for the cooperative? ?"
Chen Defu said: "Boss Zhang, you want to contract the land in our village. We are very willing to cooperate with you. If we both reach a cooperation, we don't have to think of ways to transport the rice to Shangjing."
"But farming depends on the face of God. The harvest will be good this year. Maybe there will be a severe drought next year. There will be a shortage of water in the north. If there is a severe drought, there will be almost no food available, and the price of the food will definitely increase."
"But we can't give you a grain of grain, which is actually very stressful for us."
There is a consensus that there is a shortage of water in the north. Chen Defu's words seem to make sense, but there are actually problems in it.
From the perspective of the market economy, if there is a bumper harvest, the price of grain will definitely fall. Zhang Qianxiu set the price a year in advance, just like futures. If the price of grain falls, they will make a profit. For example, a piece of rice sold last year can only be sold for 80 cents this year, but Zhang Qianxiu will still collect it at the price of one piece.
However, if there were natural disasters that year and the price of grains rose, the rice sold last year could sell one piece of rice this year. Since Zhang Qianxiu had decided in advance, they would still have to sell one piece to Zhang Qianxiu. It is equivalent to a loss of two cents.
To book in advance is to look at both parties’ forecasts for next year’s market.
But these words came out of Chen Defu's mouth, and it felt like they had suffered a lot.
Zhang Qianxiu shook his head slightly and said, "Mr. Chen, these things are relative. A disaster year also has a bumper year. A disaster year is definitely not as many as a bumper year."
Chen Defu said: "Boss Zhang, the prices of rice and wheat have been increasing over the years. The price you gave us is fine this year, but it may not be suitable next year."
Zhang Qianxiu smiled softly and said, "Mr. Chen, do you want to set a price once a year?"
"Yes! Otherwise, we will suffer too much." Chen Defu said.
Zhang Qianxiu partners with Valery. He intends to do short-term cooperation, but to cooperate with Chen Defu and others, Zhang Qianxiu wants to do long-term cooperation, preferably ten, twenty or fifty years of long-term cooperation.
Moreover, what Chen Defu said is not unreasonable, and Zhang Qianxiu does not want to squeeze their cooperatives too hard. It is really not easy for farmers to squeeze too hard.
Zhang Qianxiu thought for a while and said, "Mr. Chen, then you can tell us, how is our cooperation more reasonable?"
Chen Defu said: "We have calculated the average increase in the past ten years. If the average annual increase in rice in the past ten years is 2%, then our rent will increase by 2% each year compared to last year, but the rice we will give you remains the same. Prices are rising year after year, which is really real."
Zhang Qianxiu thought for a moment. If the annual increase is 2%, it is now 410 per ton, and in ten years it will be about 499 per ton.
This is roughly equivalent to an increase of nearly 20%.
Zhang Qianxiu is really about the price of rice in 2000. In his previous life, he had already started working in 2000 and cooked his own food. At that time, the slightly better rice in the supermarket should be around 80%.
The current price is 60 cents, which has risen by almost 50%.
If you look at this ratio alone, it is still very cost-effective, but doing business does not just look at this data, you also have to look at which year it rose.
If the first nine years did not rise, the next year did not rise, and when there was a surge in the last year, they had enough food in advance, then in the end Chen Defu and the others would not suffer. As for Zhang Qianxiu, they would eat for the first nine years. After enough losses, it may not be possible to make up for it in the last year.
Zhang Qianxiu asked, "Mr. Chen, how much do you think this increase should be?"
Chen Defu smiled and said: "Boss Zhang, we are all talking about the facts. In 1980, the retail price of rice was about two cents. Now it has tripled from six cents."
"Our annual growth rate is just 10%! It has only doubled in ten years."
Zhang Qianxiu glanced at Chen Defu and said, "Mr. Chen, the annual growth rate will be 10%. Ten years later, it will be 967 per ton, which is more than double the amount of 410."
Chen Defu was taken aback for a moment, and then apologized again and again: "Boss Zhang, I'm sorry, I am uneducated, this number is not right."
"Regardless of the calculation, it is a fact that the Mi family rose from two cents to six cents from 1980 to 1990. By the time you reached 2000, the Mi family might cost one eight cents a catty."
Zhang Qianxiu shook his head: "Mr. Chen, this increase is too big. I can accept it if it increases by 2%."
"You can't just look at how many times he has doubled, but also how much money he has increased. From two cents to six cents, a four cent increase, and another four cents in ten years later, it will only cost one dollar."
Zhang Qianxiu followed up and said: "Of course, this increase is just a multiple. It is not appropriate. It is also inappropriate to just say how much money has been increased."
"Mr. Chen, I think this two percent is just right."
Zhang Qianxiu’s bottom line is 3%. If it is 5%, the price of one ton in ten years will be about 636, which is 226 more than the current price per ton, and the increase has already exceeded%. fifty.
If it is 4%, it will definitely not reach 50%, but the risks involved are too great. No one knows which year it will rise and which year it will fall. Zhang Qianxiu only knows the rice in the supermarket in 2000. It's eight or nine cents a catty.
Chen Defu smiled bitterly: "Boss Zhang, this two percent is too little."
Zhang Qianxiu said: "Mr. Chen, we are all from the countryside. I think Mr. Chen is also a happy person, with an annual growth rate of 2.5%."
Chen Defu said: "Boss Zhang, the cooperative is not owned by me alone. I will give you the lowest rate of increase, 8% per year, which is already the lowest. No matter how low it is, I will not be able to explain it when I go back."
"I said it is a general manager, but the farmland is still owned by the villagers. They just use the farmland to buy shares. I am responsible to them."
Zhang Qianxiu had a foreboding that the two sides would definitely not agree, and his reserve price was a 3% increase, and the gap between the two parties was too great.
Sure enough, Chen Defu finally lowered it to 6%, and he refused to lower the price no matter what. Zhang Qianxiu mentioned 2.8% and he was unwilling to continue to increase it. It would not make sense to add 0.2%. Big.
Chen Defu said: "Boss Zhang, this gap is a bit big."
Zhang Qianxiu said: "Mr. Chen, I sincerely want to cooperate with you, but the annual rent is increasing by 6%. This price is too high. If possible, I can bargain once a year."
Chen Defu said: "Boss Zhang, let's not tell you that bargaining once a year will not do you any good, nor will it do us any good. It is too unstable."
"If you are unstable, your business cannot be done; if we can't form a stable cooperative relationship with you, one year after another, we will give up all the original channels, and it will be inconvenient if we still want to sell. ."
"It's like we went to Beijing. If we cooperate with you, we can close it. If we can't agree on the price after two years, and our point is gone, we can only sell it to others at a low price. ."
Chen Defu is telling the truth. They talk about it every year, even if they negotiated the price the year before, if they can’t agree, they have to establish new channels by themselves. The customers they have accumulated over the years have long been snatched away by others. They can only come back again, which is extremely uneconomical for them.
Moreover, it is indeed inconvenient for Zhang Qianxiu to talk once a year.
Zhang Qianxiu thought for a while and said, "Mr. Chen, let's change the model. I really rent your land. How much can you give me an acre?"
"Real rent?" Chen Defu looked at Zhang Qianxiu in surprise, and said, "Boss Zhang, we are a cooperative. These fields are all invested by villagers."
Zhang Qianxiu said: "These are not problems, I can use the company to directly inject capital, or sell all your shares to me."
Chen Defu shook his head subconsciously: "No!"
Zhang Qianxiu smiled softly and said, "Mr. Chen, why not?"
"Everyone in the cooperative has shares, and I don't have the right to be the master to sell all the shares." Chen Defu said.
Zhang Qianxiu said: "I don't buy all the farmland. I rent it for 30 years, and I will rent it once every ten years. If someone is willing to sell it, I can buy it. I don't want to sell it, and I don't force it."
"After I buy the cooperative, you can still take the money to divide it. Each of them can divide the money by shares and have rent."
"Finally, if farmers are willing to invest in their fields, I can still accept them."
Chen Defu was silent for a moment, and he was quickly calculating the benefits in his heart.
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