Reborn 2005: The Internet Myth
Chapter 70 Reasonable Prediction of Financial Crisis
After playing all afternoon, I'm a little tired.
Ye Zi and Li Tingting were playing video games in the house, while Wang Zheng and Wang Hu were sitting on the terrace chatting.
"By the way, Li Tingting's family seems to have opened some kind of factory, also in Shanghai." Wang Hu said a little depressed: "I don't know what I will do after graduation."
Wang Zheng laughed: "Don't you like games? Just go and develop games."
"I'm just telling you what I'm saying, don't take it seriously."
"I'm serious. Just play college first, but when you play games, think more about why you like to play this game and why this game is so popular. If you understand these two questions, you can design your own game.
Already."
Wang Zheng said seriously: "Huo Yun has a lot of business, so it won't be a problem to ensure that you have enough food and clothing. But you have to realize your self-worth and don't let Tingting think that you are relying on me for a living. Then you will be considered successful."
The words are rough and the reasoning is not rough.
If you have this kind of relationship, you don't have to be a fool, but you can't let fools think that you rely on relationships to make a living.
"Okay." Wang Hu shrank his head, leaning back on his chair and looking at the river, somewhat silent.
When it was time to go to bed at night, Ye Zi went home, Zhou Ruoyun went home, and Wang Hu and Li Tingting stayed.
Wang Zheng specially gave his brother a box of Durex. He worked in the study until midnight but didn't hear what he wanted to hear.
What a coward! What a fool!
The next day, everyone went back to their homes.
Wang Hu boarded the plane full of regret, while Li Tingting returned home reluctantly.
Wang Zheng took Ye Zi back to No. 49 Jiujiantang.
Nothing to do, just play billiards for a while.
Ye Zi has indeed learned from professional players, while Wang Zheng is only an amateur, but has rich experience. The two of them are evenly matched, and each has wins and losses.
Even if you take a break, you won't feel tired.
If Wang Zheng has a temporary job, she can also teach Zhou Ruoyun how to play two strokes.
The work content mainly consists of reports typed in by the R&D department.
For example, Qiandu wants to make a search hot list, and Penguin wants to make a navigation webpage that is almost the same as ours. How to deal with it?
Answer: Sue him.
If a big manufacturer wants to provide the same function as yours, then it means the function is excellent.
Sue him, no matter whether you win or not, let's get some heat first and then talk.
For example, which group of people should the promotion plan of SNS social networking sites start with?
Answer: women>children>elderly people>dogs>men.
Facebook, INS, Moments, meager, and so on, how can it be popular without beautiful women in the early stage?
Eastern and Western men have one thing in common, ㄟ(≧◇≦)ㄏ.
For example, how to design the interface interaction of Huoyun system?
Answer: Copy Microsoft.
If Fang Xing hadn't asked this question, Wang Zheng would have wanted to scold him. How can there be users without plagiarism at this time?
The left and right mouse buttons, click and double-click, these operations have been developed by Microsoft. What can I do if I don't copy them?
Waiting to cool down?
The most well-behaved is the instant messaging team, which has no masters and only focuses on imitation.
If it doesn't work, I just dig out the function module of Xiaoming IM. If the API interface is wrong, then I just change the core to add this module.
The best team is the "Global Offensive" team. It should be a team directly recruited because they bought the CS1.6 version license and don't change anything. What they want is the original flavor.
Under Wang Zheng's instructions, he worked hard to draw and make skins for various firearms and knives.
By Friday night, Wang Zheng was accompanying Ye Zi home with a plan of more than 20 pages.
With Ye Zi being so unhelpful, it was very difficult to prepare dinner and wait for Ye Bowen and Lan Xi to return home.
It cannot be said that Ye Zi did not contribute, but one of the dishes was really salty. Wang Zheng did not waste it and ate it all with porridge.
In the past two years, he didn't often eat serious dishes, let alone salty or not.
After dinner, Ye Bowen had already seen the documents on the table. Wang Zheng took the initiative to light a cigar for him without saying a word, feeling very satisfied.
"The modular computer rooms have begun to be shipped. I have transferred three factories to start production, and I guarantee that I will supply them to you first."
This matter was not critical. Wang Zheng took the documents on the table and handed them to him, then turned to watch the news broadcast.
Ye Bowen read two pages and his expression immediately changed: "Is this your prediction?!"
Lan Xi heard this, took the document and looked at it with the words "Mediland Real Estate Market Crisis" written on it. She glanced at it twice, her face changed, and she looked at Wang Zheng with confusion and confusion.
Wang Zheng nodded, very calmly, and held the hand Ye Zi quietly extended behind his back.
Then he looked at Ye Bowen and Lan Xi and said with a smile: "Last year, in order to cooperate with the realization of the American dream promoted by Xiaobian and stimulate economic growth, Greenspan of the Federal Reserve introduced a subprime loan policy, lowered the credit rating, cut interest rates, and allowed people with low credit to
I can also afford a loan to buy a big house and live a good life."
"When this matter went to the banking system of Midland, it was doubled. They lent out 1 million and waited ten years to get back 1.1 million. How could the bankers wait so long to recover the cost? It seems that they are so unprofessional.
.”
"So they sold the loan contract to a Wall Street investment bank at a low price, such as 1.1 million. Then they used the 1.02 million recovered to continue lending, repeating the cycle and counting the money."
"The risks are all those of the vampires on Wall Street. What we do in opening a bank is almost the same as doing charity."
"It turns out that 1 million can only be loaned to one person. After this operation, 1 million can be loaned to dozens or hundreds of people. Even a dog can get a loan to buy a house."
"But when it comes to doubling, Wall Street investment banks are the ancestors of super doubling. They combine these subprime loan contracts with some high-quality loans (high-credit loans) and sub-prime loans, and package them into tradable mortgage loan contracts, that is,
CDO, put it into the securities market and sell it.”
"When investors see how good this thing is, housing prices have been rising, and the value of CDOs will only get higher and higher. With the support of the President and the Federal Reserve, how can housing prices fall?"
Wang Zheng took a sip of tea and said: "But they underestimated the greed of the people in Midland. If I were a poor person in Midland and I bought a house with a loan and found that the house price had risen, I would sell the house.
If you lose it, the difference earned will be used to repay the interest, and then you will get a loan to buy a house..."
"The profits are so high. It's much more than what you can earn at work. Everyone is moving to flip houses and no one is engaged in production, so the country will curb this momentum through policies such as raising interest rates."
"Originally, this game was played with the initial loan of 1 million from the bank. Everyone beat the drum and passed the flowers to see who could run faster."
"After interest rates are raised, the poor will find that they don't have enough money to sell their houses to repay their loans, and house prices will inevitably fall."
"By then, the poor will be even poorer, because they will lose money if they sell the house, and they will not be able to repay the loan if they don't sell it. If they can't repay the loan, it will form a dead debt, and the value of the CDO will only fall."
"CDO is a product of U.S. national policy. If it falls, investors will panic, panic will lead to selling, and housing prices will fall even more severely."
"Once housing prices across the country fall on a large scale, how can the financial market that is closely related to real estate fare better? If the financial market falls, banks and investment banks will have to face runs or even collapse."
"At this time, as long as we give you money, I believe those investment banks will dare to sell anything!"
Wang Zheng stopped talking. He was not a financial practitioner, and the financial crisis was actually not that simple. He had just read the comments of some up owners later, and had some understanding of the logic of this matter.
Then check some information and integrate this analysis and "reasonable" prediction.
The more people know about Midland Financial, the more they will believe this prediction - such as Lanxi.
Lan Xi thought for a while and quickly found the loophole: "How are you sure that the American League will raise interest rates again, causing real estate to fall?"
Wang Zheng blinked: "I'm not sure, but Huo Rong is sure."
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