Reborn as a tycoon in Hong Kong

"Since Hutchison Whampoa is shorted by securities lending, it is natural to borrow stocks to sell them. Theoretically, the maximum amount that can be shorted is 100% of the total number of Hutchison Whampoa shares, but in reality, it is naturally impossible to have that many shares. .”

"Before that, it is necessary for us to take stock of Hutchison Whampoa's holdings before it was shorted."

"It can be seen from the shareholder holdings in Hutchison Whampoa's third quarter report that Mr. Lin holds 49.9% of Hutchison Whampoa shares, totaling 199.6 million shares, of which 90 million shares are pledged to HSBC, so he holds tradable shares The number of shares is 109.6 million. Mr. Lin has announced to the public that he will not reduce his holdings of Hutchison Whampoa shares, so it is unlikely that the 100 million shares will be shorted by short parties."

"The second largest shareholder under Mr. Lin is HSBC. The third quarter report shows that HSBC holds 15% of Hutchison Whampoa's shares, totaling 60 million shares. HSBC has margin trading business, plus the 9,000 pledged by Mr. Lin to HSBC Ten thousand shares, the number of stocks that the short side can borrow from HSBC is 150 million shares, and these stocks can be used for short selling."

"About the remaining 35% of Hutchison Whampoa's shares are in the hands of some institutional big funds, most of them are in the hands of retail investors, and short sellers cannot borrow stocks from retail investors to sell them. empty."

"So, I have reason to believe that short sellers can short-sell no more than 150 million shares, not even as many as 150 million shares. After all, 90 million of the shares were pledged by Mr. Lin to HSBC, and HSBC may not dare to borrow them all. If the short side is liquidated and cannot buy it back, then HSBC will have to buy the stock itself and return it to Mr. Lin, and then HSBC will suffer huge losses."

"Let's talk about short selling again. The negative news about Hutchison Whampoa appeared at the weekend of last week. On Monday, Hutchison Whampoa's stock price began to dive, from around HK$37 before being shorted to below the price of HK$30."

"Since the short side wants to make money by selling high and buying low, the short side will inevitably sell a large number of stocks before the stock price plunges. Only in this way can the short side make money by buying back the stocks at a low price after the stock price plummets. .”

"Since it is a deliberate short sale, the number of stocks sold by the short side will definitely not be small. It is more likely to be between 5% and 10% of the total number of shares. Let's take the middle value, then the number of stocks sold by the short side before That’s 30 million shares.”

"On Monday, Hutchison Whampoa's stock price plummeted due to negative news. However, after the stock price fell below 25 Hong Kong dollars, a large amount of funds took over, and a long-short war broke out. Later, according to statistics, the transaction amount during that period exceeded 1 billion Hong Kong dollars. If the stock price is less than 25 Hong Kong dollars, the trading volume exceeds 40 million shares. Even if a small part of them are sold by retail investors, the vast majority must be sold by short sellers. We estimate the short sellers here. 40 million shares were sold."

"Hutchison Whampoa's stock price did not fluctuate much on Monday afternoon and Tuesday. It was in a state of shock. There was no movement from both the long and short sides. We won't say more here."

"On Wednesday today, Hutchison Whampoa's stock price was suppressed again, but at HK$21, the short side encountered stubborn resistance from the long side, and the long-short war broke out again. This time, the transaction amount at the price of HK$21 exceeded... 1.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, at a price of 21 Hong Kong dollars per share, the trading volume exceeds 50 million shares."

"Although there should be a small number of retail investors selling these 50 million shares, the short side needs to sell a lot of shares first to suppress the stock price to HK$21, so I personally think that the short side short-sold 50 million shares here. ."

"After that, the stock price fell below HK$20. At about 2 o'clock in the afternoon, funds entered the market to buy the bottom. The short side encountered resistance again. The transaction amount at that time was about HK$500 million, even if some of it was sold by retail investors. , the number of shares sold by the short side must not be less than 20 million shares."

"Total together, the stocks shorted and sold by the short side are at least no less than 140 million shares. Of course, when the short side defeats the long side, the stock price is in a state of shock, and the short side will inevitably attract money, but according to trading volume statistics , the chips collected by the short side will not exceed 20 million shares, so we calculated based on 20 million shares, which means that the number of shares sold by the short side in the end will not be less than 120 million shares."

"As we said before, the short side can borrow up to 150 million shares. Now that the short side has sold 120 million shares, it can only borrow up to 30 million more shares. But we need to know that HSBC announced that it will reduce its holdings "It is said that it will reduce its holdings by at least 20 million shares, which means that the maximum number of stocks that the short side can borrow is 10 million shares, and the short side has no chips."

"Some people may not believe these statistics, but we need to know that just after 3 p.m., Hutchison Whampoa announced a buyback plan, and then entered the market to buy a large number of Hutchison Whampoa's shares. This time the short sellers continued There was no symbolic resistance, and the stock price was quickly raised to close to HK$30, and the final closing price was also above HK$25.”

"If the short side still has a lot of chips, how can the short side watch the stock price rise? The short side will only try to suppress the stock price, but the short side does nothing. This is ironclad evidence that the short side has no chips. .”

"The reason why I say so much is to let everyone understand the power of the long and short parties. When Hutchison Whampoa is shorted, if you cannot understand who is stronger on the long and short sides, then it is inappropriate to participate. , after all, the rise and fall of stock prices are really too great, and retail investors may not be able to bear the extremely volatile rises and falls."

"Obviously, if there are no big surprises, the short side has failed this time. Hutchison Whampoa's stock price will rebound in the future, but the price it can rebound to depends on the long side. If the long side has no differences, but unanimously wants If the short side is eliminated, the stock price will definitely rise wildly; if there are over-the-counter funds entering the market to go long and want a share of the pie, no one knows to what price the stock price can rise."

"On the other hand, if the bulls disagree and choose to take profits after the stock price rises to a certain price, then even if the short side needs to buy back the stock, the stock price will only be in a state of shock, and it is unlikely to rise again. However, Because the short side has to buy back a large number of stocks sold short, it is difficult for the stock price to fall, so you don’t have to worry about the stock price plummeting.”

"Of course, although the short side has no chips and is basically guaranteed to lose, there is always a possibility, so I cannot guarantee that the long side will definitely win. Therefore, I do not recommend that you buy Hutchison Whampoa stocks. , it’s just that some investors want to listen to our analysis, so I express my personal opinions and do not use them as a basis for recommending stocks.”

"The teacher is right. The stock market is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market. Our financial channel only does stock analysis and does not recommend any stocks. It is up to investors to make their own judgments on whether to buy a certain stock."

The female host took over and summarized.

After that, the female host changed the topic to the expert and talked about other stocks, and the expert continued to analyze it until the program time of about 20 minutes was over.

Tonight's program can be said to have been arranged by Lin Baicheng. Many data were provided by him. The analysis of experts is also biased towards the long side. It is almost saying that the short side is destined to lose and let the majority of investors join the long side.

Although it was stated at the end of the program that it was not recommended to buy Hutchison Whampoa's stocks, this was nothing more than a cover-up. Any investor who has watched the show will know that the short seller of Hutchison Whampoa has lost. The possibility of making money by buying Hutchison Whampoa stock is very high. You can imagine what investors will choose.

The British-owned family will use negative news to block Hutchison Whampoa's stock price. Of course, Lin Baicheng will also create good news to increase the stock price, and he will do more than just this, and there are other means behind it.