Reborn in 1977
#617 - expect
Chapter 611 Expectation
Chen Fan looked at Zhou Yali, paused for two or three seconds, and then said with a strange expression, "Last time you came, you said you knew that the country had a foreign trade monopoly system, so why are you talking nonsense today?"
Zhou Yali's face stiffened, she pouted unhappily, and stopped talking.
She had just forgotten this point. With the foreign trade monopoly, all commodities must be traded through the mainland's import and export companies. Even if she wanted to sell the goods in, she could only negotiate cooperation with foreign trade companies.
But, wouldn't foreign trade companies directly negotiate with manufacturers? Why would they let you earn a cut in the middle?
Miscalculation.
Chen Fan chuckled twice and said, "Currently, American electrical appliances are indeed more advanced than domestic ones, but compared to the products of Little Japan, they have a big disadvantage."
Zhou Yali sighed, "I understand, theirs are cheaper."
She suddenly pouted, "I don't understand why we reconciled with Little Japan? We still spend so much money every year to buy their goods, just because they are cheaper?"
Chen Fan coughed dryly, "This is not a question we need to consider."
Then he changed the subject, "However, to be honest, Little Japan's products do have a greater price advantage compared to the United States. Especially for large items such as electrical appliances and automobiles, although their products are not top-notch, they are not much worse than those of the United States, but the price is much cheaper. In terms of cost performance, they really can't compare."
Currently, the world's number one electrical appliance company is Whirlpool in the United States. Many household appliances were invented by them, such as the world's first washing machine.
However, later they were not defeated by the competition from Little Japan, but by domestic household appliance companies, and gradually became a second-rate enterprise.
Zhou Yali nodded lightly and sighed again, "That's right. Even Whirlpool in the American domestic market has been defeated by Little Japan's products. Ford and General Motors have also been pushing for high tariffs on Little Japan's automobiles, but unfortunately their public relations fees are not as high as those given by Little Japan. Toyota's automobile factories in the United States are still increasing.
Looking back, when Ford Nissan produced 8,000 cars, Toyota could only produce 40. Toyota even had to learn from Ford. Now the apprentice has taught the master and starved him to death. In short, there are a lot of messy things."
Chen Fan curled his lips, "You are really worried about a lot."
Zhou Yali chuckled, "We study international trade, so we must understand the things inside."
Jiang Lili and Jiang Tiantian sat aside, listening to their conversation, feeling like they were listening to a heavenly book. They could only understand one or two points of a sentence, and the rest was completely incomprehensible.
Chen Fan glanced at them and grinned. The two sisters also returned a smile, and their mood calmed down inexplicably.
Zhou Yali was still saying, "After World War II, the world economic pattern underwent major changes, especially the industrial transfer, which became the focus of attention for new and old capital.
Among them, the hotspot in Asia is Little Japan. At that time, in order to rebuild Little Japan and reduce production costs, the United States transferred a large number of production lines from its homeland to Little Japan, thereby directly promoting the economic revival of Little Japan from the 1940s to the present. Now, it has even become the most popular investment destination in the world.
On the other side of Europe, the Federal Republic of Germany, with its strong technical reserves and capital assistance from Europe and the United States, together with Little Japan, has become one of the most dazzling economic twin stars..."
Chen Fan listened to Zhou Yali reciting the knowledge points from the textbook. After she finished speaking, he smiled and asked, "Then tell me, where will the next industrial undertaking be?"
Zhou Yali said without hesitation, "Southeast Asian countries in Asia will be one of the next industrial undertaking places. The reason is that they are very close to Little Japan, and they control the important maritime passage, the Strait of Malacca. At the same time, they also have a very sufficient supply of cheap labor. I am more optimistic about Malaysia and Singapore."
Chen Fan looked at her with a smile, "Did you really analyze it yourself?"
Zhou Yali's face stiffened slightly, and she chuckled dryly twice, "Although the teacher taught it, I remembered it, so isn't it mine?"
Chen Fan nodded lightly and smiled, "Your teacher's analysis is almost okay, but he underestimated one factor."
Zhou Yali looked at him in confusion, "What factor?"
Chen Fan shook his head with a smile, "Citizen quality."
Zhou Yali opened her eyes wide, her eyes full of confusion, "Ah?"
Chen Fan explained, "Citizen quality includes several aspects. The first is the level of education, the second is personal habits determined by religious beliefs, cultural customs, etc., and the last is the local business atmosphere.
You were right just now. After 30 years of rapid development, Little Japan has reached the point where it has to carry out industrial overflow due to narrow regional restrictions. Then it must consider the industrial transfer undertaking area, and Nanyang can be directly reached through marine transportation, and it also controls the sea. The main transportation route is undoubtedly a key selection area.
In addition, the areas on the line from Little Japan to Nanyang should be within their scope of investigation.
So your teacher's analysis is not wrong, but this area is very large, including more than a dozen countries and regions.
Now you take the citizen quality into consideration and think carefully, who has the greatest chance?"
Zhou Yali frowned and silently thought about which countries and regions are in this area, and what are the similarities and differences in local customs and government policies. She unconsciously became engrossed.
Chen Fan raised his eyebrows slightly and gestured to the two sisters. The three of them each took a chair and tiptoed out.
Dinner was cooked by the two sisters together. Jiang Tiantian helped out, Jiang Lili took charge of the cooking, and Chen Fan provided technical guidance on the side.
When the food was on the table, Zhou Yali walked out covering her head, "It's too difficult, I'm not familiar with many places, and I don't know where to start."
Chen Fan pulled out a chair and sat down, and said angrily, "Then why didn't you come out earlier? You only come out when it's time to eat."
Zhou Yali sat opposite him and smiled, "I can't cook, so wouldn't it be good if I didn't help you guys?"
Jiang Tiantian couldn't help but grin and put the bowls and chopsticks in front of her, and smiled, "Everyone has their strengths and weaknesses. Although you can't cook, you understand economics. I can't understand what you and Xiaofan were discussing just now."
Zhou Yali held her hand and pulled her to sit next to her, "Sister Tiantian understands me best."
Chen Fan took the rice bowl Lili handed over, picked up the chopsticks and looked at her, "I also know how to cook, it just depends on whether you are willing to learn."
Zhou Yali pouted, "I don't talk to aliens."
Chen Fan rolled his eyes, and waited for Jiang Lili to sit down before giving an order, "Let's eat."
Zhou Yali holding a rice bowl, her performance was not like that of a rich family's daughter at all, but rather like she had never eaten good food before, wanting to try every dish.
Jiang Lili also cooperated very well, constantly picking up vegetables for her, and also introducing the names and methods of the dishes, which made Zhou Yali exclaim in admiration.
Usually when the three of them eat together, Chen Fan would chat with them separately about their studies and work. Today, with Zhou Yali here, they didn't talk about these topics, but instead revolved around Zhou Yali.
However, after chatting for a while, Zhou Yali was still thinking about the question Chen Fan had just thrown at her.
After eating until he was about seventy percent full, he looked up at Chen Fan, "Old brother, what's your answer? I mean, about the industrial transfer."
Chen Fan continued to eat unhurriedly. After swallowing the food in his mouth, he glanced at her and said, "It's very simple. The so-called quality of citizens is nothing more than two things: emphasis on education and morality."
Looking at the countries and regions on that line, whichever is within the Confucian cultural sphere has a chance to become the most popular destination for industrial transfer."
Hearing this, Zhou Yali immediately put down her chopsticks and began counting on her fingers, "South Korea counts as one, Taiwan, which is still floating, counts as one, Hong Kong counts as one, Macau? Macau is too small, not suitable."
Saying this, she suddenly raised her head, "Does that mean only Singapore is left?"
Besides these few places, there is also Vietnam, which belongs to the Confucian cultural sphere, but everyone knows that Vietnam is closely following the Soviet Union, so naturally it won't flirt with Japan.
As for other regions and countries, they are basically former Western colonies, and their situations are hard to describe. It would be a little difficult to seize this opportunity.
Chen Fan gave her a thumbs up, "Indeed."
Then he said, "Among these places, the most independent should be South Korea. The Miracle on the Han River has laid a solid foundation, and it is also the place with the best foundation.
And the most promising place, can you guess where it will be?"
As he said this, he sighed inwardly. In another year, Old Park would be cut off. Otherwise, it's really hard to say what South Korea would be like later.
Zhou Yali couldn't help but complain when she heard Chen Fan's words, "Here we go again."
But she still thought carefully, Taiwan? Singapore? Or Hong Kong?
After a few seconds, she turned to look at Jiang Tiantian and Jiang Lili, who were sitting on either side, and asked in a low voice when she saw the sisters frowning in thought, "Did you think of anything?"
Jiang Tiantian frowned slightly and said thoughtfully, "I guess, could it be Hong Kong?"
Jiang Lili also nodded lightly, "I guess so too."
Zhou Yali thought for a while, with a hint of confusion in her eyes, "Why not Singapore?"
No one guessed Taiwan. Everyone knew there was an unresolved issue, and who knew when something might happen.
Jiang Tiantian turned to look at Chen Fan and said softly, "Xiao Fan said before that Hong Kong's prosperity is basically supported by the mainland. Now that the policy is showing a trend of relaxation, if the mainland focuses on development, wouldn't Hong Kong be more promising?"
Jiang Lili nodded again, "Yes, yes, that's why I think so too."
Chen Fan put down his chopsticks, picked up a napkin to wipe his mouth, and raised his head with a smile, "Yes, that's the reason."
After a pause, he looked at Zhou Yali and smiled, "Actually, Singapore is also good. Their government policies have a high degree of execution and continuity. In such a place, no matter how weak the foundation is, as long as it persists, it will definitely develop very well.
But they have an unavoidable shortcoming, that is, they lack strategic depth. As a port city-state, no matter how strong it is, it is limited. It would be good enough to maintain it.
Hong Kong, on the other hand, has the support of the mainland, with a huge population and market. This geographical advantage is not available to any other region."
Saying this, he stopped abruptly.
It wasn't good to say too much about what followed.
Fortunately, Zhou Yali was not a person who pursued things to the end. Instead, she thought of another question, "According to you, shouldn't the most suitable place for development be the mainland?"
Chen Fan laughed and looked at her meaningfully, "Otherwise, what was your dad doing when you came here last time?"
Zhou Yali's eyes flickered slightly, "So you guys were already planning to invest in the mainland?"
Chen Fan pointed at her, "Ask your dad when you get back. When he starts investing, you can put your idea into practice."
Zhou Yali's eyes were blank, "What idea?"
Chen Fan blinked, speechless.
Jiang Lili smiled from the side, "Cousin, have you forgotten? You just said you wanted to import American electrical appliances. Although there are foreign trade monopolies, making trade inconvenient, you can buy production lines in the United States and then invest in building factories in the mainland.
The wages here are very low, only about 30 yuan a month on average, which is equivalent to less than 20 US dollars, and most of them are people who have gone to school and can read. Their learning ability is very fast, and they can start working after one or two months of training.
At that time, regardless of whether your factory's products can be sold in the mainland, even if they are re-exported to the United States, you can take advantage of the labor cost advantage."
Zhou Yali looked at her in surprise, "Did you think of this?"
Jiang Lili was still a little shy in front of outsiders, and her pretty face blushed immediately. She turned to look at Chen Fan and said softly, "I also heard Xiao Fan say it."
Chen Fan remained calm and nodded lightly.
If he remembered correctly, it seemed that after exercising once, he hugged Lili and talked about a lot of things, including this part.
She really is a bit shy.
Of course, Zhou Yali couldn't see through his heart. She narrowed her eyes and thought for a while, then nodded very seriously, "Well, if the stability and continuity of the policy can be guaranteed, this project is very good."
She just sighed in her heart that the wages here were really low.
The median income of American industrial workers is currently around $17,000 per year, which is equivalent to a little more than $1,400 per month.
But in China, it is only 20 US dollars. This gap, tsk tsk, even after deducting transportation costs, is a huge profit.
I really look forward to the day when the project is successfully invested and built!
After dinner, although Zhou Yali couldn't cook, she actively participated in washing dishes.
As a result, she broke two plates, three bowls, and pricked her finger.
Looking at the great achievements she created, Chen Fan was very glad, "Fortunately, it wasn't 7501 porcelain, otherwise I would be heartbroken."
Hearing this, Zhou Yali immediately raised her head, "By the way, old brother, what about the ceramics my dad wanted?"
Chen Fan coughed dryly, "Well, everything is ready. I've prepared a set of tableware and tea set for you first, a total of 50 or 60 pieces. Take them with you when you go back."
Zhou Yali didn't know what the mystery was, and didn't understand why she was only allowed to take so little back from 1200 pieces. She still nodded, "Okay, my dad will definitely like it when the time comes."
After a pause, she added, "Also, old brother, accompany me to the housing authority tomorrow to take a look."
Chen Fan frowned slightly, "What's wrong? Even after Uncle-in-law went there in person last time, they still didn't agree to you buying a house?"
Zhou Yali curled her lips, "It's not that they didn't agree, but they didn't agree either, just said they would study it. It's been a month or two, it's time to come up with something, right?"
Chen Fan smacked his lips. Didn't this sound like an excuse?
But he didn't say much, just nodded and smiled, "Okay, I'll go with you to ask tomorrow."
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